Judge for Ourselves

If he makes it to free agency, should the Red Sox go all-in to sign Aaron Judge?


  • Total voters
    303

Yelling At Clouds

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And how many other players are you willing to send in this absolutely not possible scenario? You would be talking a Soto'esqe trade situation. Of which we wouldnt have enough good prospects to send even. Meaning, you can't just call up any team and say hey, we will take your best player for lotto tickets and whatever you are paying him. It doesn't work like that.
Pretty sure it’s a joke - undo the original trade, basically.
 

grimshaw

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We need at least:

two OF
one 1b - Casas hopefully
one C
a SS if Bogaerts leaves
four starters
a billion relievers

So yeah, Judge is great, but for the amount of money it would take, we have a ton of other problems.
Sure - but they have 70 mill committed, and maybe another 30 or so for arbitration which gives them 130+ to spend. Even if Judge is 40 mill, they have plenty left over
 

Pozo the Clown

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Sep 13, 2006
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This is an extremely unique opportunity to add an elite talent that fills multiple needs (for only $) while depriving a division rival of their best and most-beloved player. Judge in a Sox uni would create massive interest in a team that was extremely boring in 2022. Signing Judge would be the closest thing to avenging the sale of Ruth that's feasible in the modern era.

Go HARD after him. Be bold and aggressive. Start with very high AVVs over shorter time frames. Offer Judge $50M per year for his choice of 1, 2, 3 or 4 years. Consider 5 or 6 year deals at slightly lower AAVs.
 

bankshot1

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Red Sox generally don't go after MFY free agents. That traffic historically has flowed north to south,with a stop at Reins for some decent deli. Most here can easily list the battalion of name ex-BoSox who ended up in pinstripes. The reverse is a very short list.

I don't see Chaim going Dombrowski and giving a finacially bloated lifetime appointment to the eminent Judge from the Bronx. I suspect if he goes anywhere its to the Giants. Which given his size seems right.He should fit in.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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I’d go pretty high for Judge, even if it meant scrimping elsewhere (like catcher). IMO, we pretty clearly need another middle of the order bat, end he fits us well in CF/RF.
Agreed. You don't want to leave the cupboard bare, but at the same time if you check #1 what 3 mid-level players adding up to Judge's salary are you going to sign in the same offseason that will hit 20 homers each?

Edit: I'm being a little facetious because you need SOMEONE to play the 2 other positions Judge won't fill, but would you rather rely on one guy or 3 different guys to stay healthy and produce. The one year this mid-level strategy worked was 2013, but the Sox top 5 WARs were 2 guys on arbitration (Pedroia and Ellsbury) and another on a team-friendly deal (Papi). The foundation was already in place.
 
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JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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I mean, I think there's almost a 0% chance of it happening but considering the prospect acquisition cost of acquiring players like Soto/Ohtani before they become free agents...paying straight money for an elite player isn't a bad option at all.

Judge currently leads the league in runs, home runs, RBI, walks, obp, slg, ops, ops+, tb & ibb.

He has a bWAR of 9. His lowest in any non-pandemic season is 5.6.

The idea is to get enough cost controlled talent to afford to fit in players like this - not trade that cost controlled talent to acquire worse players.

But how much per year & how many years does this go? & does he actually want to be here? So it's all a pipe dream & I guess I'll just root for the Padres to sign him for like 5/$220m with a 3/$90m player option after or something.
 

Spud

New Member
Nov 15, 2006
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And how many other players are you willing to send in this absolutely not possible scenario? You would be talking a Soto'esqe trade situation. Of which we wouldnt have enough good prospects to send even. Meaning, you can't just call up any team and say hey, we will take your best player for lotto tickets and whatever you are paying him. It doesn't work like that.
Tongue was firmly in cheek when I wrote that. Thought that might have been obvious. Guess not.
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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They need pitching. Adding Judge doesn’t accomplish that. Extend Xander & Devers and get better pitching.
I see things differently. For the first time in forever they don’t need (a ton) of pitching. (Of course, I’m more bullish on Sale and Paxton than many here, and I totally get that reasonable people could differ.)

But between Bello, Whitlock, Mata and Ward, we actually have a bunch of guys with plausible, near-term mid-rotation and better ceilings. So I might try to extend Wacha or something, because we’re well-hedged against injury risk with our high-upside guys in the high minors, as well as, you know, Winckowski and Seabold, if it comes to that.


ATM it looks like a catching tandem of Wong and McGuire could be on tap for next season. I'm not sure that they could get much more scrimpier.
Yup! So adding an 8-war outfielder would be a way of hedging on Wong’s offense transitioning to the majors.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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I see things differently. For the first time in forever they don’t need (a ton) of pitching. (Of course, I’m more bullish on Sale and Paxton than many here, and I totally get that reasonable people could differ.)

But between Bello, Whitlock, Mata and Ward, we actually have a bunch of guys with plausible, near-term mid-rotation and better ceilings. So I might try to extend Wacha or something, because we’re well-hedged against injury risk with our high-upside guys in the high minors, as well as, you know, Winckowski and Seabold, if it comes to that.
You stated this better than I was going to. It could be baggage in my head from past transactions, but I feel like FA dollars spent on hitting tend to work out better than FA sized pitching dollars. We have some volume in terms of arms. For the most part besides Sale if a handful of guys fall flat or get injured, the loss is a modest team-friendly contract. deGrom or Rodon are tantalizing but man arms are so fickle as these two have already shown previously.
 

AlNipper49

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They need pitching. Adding Judge doesn’t accomplish that. Extend Xander & Devers and get better pitching.
Then an even more fun exercise is doing this same exercise but with Degrom. More valuable player than Judge, and more likely to get hurt. A literal generational talent. When healthy.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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We don’t need pitching is a weird take given how bad the pitching has been this year. Bello looks promising, if a bit raw, but he’s the top pitching prospect in the system by a mile. Are we confident at all that Whitlock and or Houck can be effective starters, never mind what that does to an already mediocre pen? Losing Wacha and Eovaldi and expecting the staff to be fronted by Sale, Paxton, and Pivetta seems really risky.
 

SoxJox

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Dec 22, 2003
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I was thinking guys like Frank Howard and Richie Sexson, but Winfield was almost as big and much more athletic. He might be a better comp for Judge than the big mashers.
I would never have thought to include Frank Howard in this discussion. But it motivated me to take a look.

For years at age 23 (when he was ROY for the Dodgers) through 32: 55495
For years age 33-34 (i.e., the "early 30s, as suggested up thread as the fall off point for "tall" players: 55497
And for years 33 through retirement at 36 ("mid" 30s?): 55498 Pretty respectable IMHO.

And, when compared to his career line 55502, he seems to have been fairly consistent

I had the great pleasure of meeting him and several other Washington Senators when I was growing up in Virginia. We lived in Roanoke, and other than the Single A Salem Rebels (then a Pittsburgh and now a Red Sox farm team), we didn't have any local professional sports teams to attend regularly. But my dad used to take my brother and me up to either Baltimore, but more often to Washington whenever there was a doubleheader. We'd drive up to see the Friday game, stay over for the Saturday doubleheader, and, more often than not, take in the Sunday game as well.

My Dad was a longtime friend of one of the Senator pitchers - Bob Humphreys. Bob would sometimes invite us down to the dugout during batting practice or into the clubhouse after a game. What an experience. Being introduced to Frank was like meeting a giant.

I remember that there were 2 memorial seats in the upper decks that had been painted white to commemorate his gargantuan shots. At some point in the past, I googled images of RFK stadium and found the one in the area just right of dead center (the other was on left center, but not quite as far). Take a look at the dimensions of the stadium: 410 to dead center. 10 foot wall. A 30 foot area behind the wall where the bullpens and field maintenance equipment were located. A 30 foot wall behind that. A first-level upper deck of about 12 rows - the red seats. A second-level upper deck of about 20 rows - the yellow seats. That HR landed 4 rows down from the upper most row of seats.
 
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E5 Yaz

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Then an even more fun exercise is doing this same exercise but with Degrom. More valuable player than Judge, and more likely to get hurt. A literal generational talent. When healthy.
True, but I would think that the votes would be even more lopsided in the negative because of, as you pointed out, his medical history
 

Archer1979

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I think the Sox have to at least kick the tires on him, if only to drive up the price. I doubt he'll age well and doubt he really wants to be here for the reasons Jon Abbey expressed above, but if the Sox' interest throws Hal into a panic then I'm all for it.
This is exactly correct. While he's have a phenomenal season, whoever signs him will be signing up for a lot of dead money in future years. If it can't be the Sox that he signs with for rational money, at least get the price tag up enough so that some other team ends up with an albatross that they can only get rid of by trading to the Dodgers.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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We don’t need pitching is a weird take given how bad the pitching has been this year. Bello looks promising, if a bit raw, but he’s the top pitching prospect in the system by a mile. Are we confident at all that Whitlock and or Houck can be effective starters, never mind what that does to an already mediocre pen? Losing Wacha and Eovaldi and expecting the staff to be fronted by Sale, Paxton, and Pivetta seems really risky.
If Whitlock and/or Houck can be effective starters (personally, I have more faith in Whitlock), it lessens the burden on the bullpen regardless of its quality. 150+ innings out of Whitlock in the rotation means less innings for his bullpen replacement to have to throw at all.

I don't know if I'd go so far as to say they don't need pitching, but they certainly have a big enough number of starting options heading into the winter, such that Bloom could focus more on shoring up the pen than the rotation. Not to say he can't or shouldn't add a starter (or two), but I can see an argument for why it might not be his top priority.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I meant that having Whitlock and Houck in the rotation loses two good relievers from an already suspect pen. What does the pen look like next year with those two in the rotation…..Schreiber, Barnes, Danish, Kelly?

I guess it all comes down to what you think of the starting depth- Bello looks promising, but none of the other guys (the Winckowski, Seabolds, and Crawford’s of the world) are really prospects and it showed in how they performed.

Standing pat with the rotation might work out but it certainly seems risky to me.
 

nvalvo

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We don’t need pitching is a weird take given how bad the pitching has been this year. Bello looks promising, if a bit raw, but he’s the top pitching prospect in the system by a mile. Are we confident at all that Whitlock and or Houck can be effective starters, never mind what that does to an already mediocre pen? Losing Wacha and Eovaldi and expecting the staff to be fronted by Sale, Paxton, and Pivetta seems really risky.
I see what you're saying, but what really imploded our pitching this season and knocked us out of the race were two things:
  • Barnes getting his act together too slowly. How many late inning blown saves does the bullpen have if Barnes pitched in April and May (17 IP of ~5 FIP) like has has in August and September (~16 IP of 2.60 FIP)? Three fewer?
  • We weathered the first Sale injury (the stress fracture at the lockout-induced preseason workouts without the training staff — thank you, ownership) pretty decently, but what blew up our season was the overlapping simultaneous injuries to Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill and Whitlock. That's an entire good starting rotation on the IL at once.
I know that you're upset about Paxton, but he was filling a spot in the depth chart *that we only had* because he was starting the season on the 60-day IL. If he had to be on the 40-man, we couldn't have signed him.

But okay. Here's what I would do with the pitching for next season.

Assuming that they weren't lying when they sad that Paxton's stuff looked great before his rehab stint, I would aim to retain both Paxton and Wacha. If you can get Paxton cheaper than his option, great; otherwise exercise the option. Wacha should be gettable somewhere in the 2/$28m-3/$40m range; if it gets much higher than that, we look elsewhere for another oft-injured veteran with ace upside.

So the goal (health permitting) is to start the season with a rotation that looks like this:

Sale L
Wacha R
Paxton L
Pivetta R
Whitlock R

Then, in AAA, you have the following SP options.
Bello
Mata
Ward
Walter
Seabold
Winckowski
Murphy

That is seven-deep in minor league starters who could be viable MLB starters in 2023 for at least a spot start or few turns. I'm not really bullish on Murphy or Winckowski, but the other guys are real prospects — some with a bit of relief risk. I don't feel like people are appreciating the extent of that depth — I don't think we've ever had that kind of SP depth since I have been following the team. It allows us to go for upside over reliability with our big league rotation.

As for the bullpen, I think we should try to add at least another setup type, and maybe retain Strahm. We move on from Darwinzon Hernandez, Ryan Brasier, and
  • Barnes RH LaRussan closer
  • Houck RH multi-inning relief ace
  • Schreiber RH setup
  • Taylor LH setup, if he's still alive, — otherwise, try to retain Strahm. Andrew Chafin? Brad Hand?
  • New setup type, any handedness —
  • LH multi-inning guy — hopefully someone a bit better than Chris Murphy, but he'd be a guy who might be able to get 3-9 outs.
  • German RH middle relief
  • Kelly RH middle relief
Then we have guys like Ort, Wallace, Bazardo, Politi, and I am sure we'll add a few more who can bounce back and forth. Some people think that Bryan Mata's best role could be as a multi-inning reliever; maybe that role would make sense for Brandon Walter or Chris Murphy, too. That is another option, given that if we get good luck with health, we could have trouble finding SP innings for everyone in Worcester.

Big picture: is this a lock-down surefire excellent pitching staff? Not really. We have a ton of upside, considerable injury risk, but hopefully enough minor league depth to absorb that injury risk so long as it doesn't all happen at the same time. Would adding DeGrom or Rodon really improve things much? We already have an oft-injured ace, but if you wanted to spend more and sub a guy like that for Wacha, that would be a defensible move IMO.

We have a lot of money to spend, but if I'm spending money, I'm looking to shore up the top and middle of the order by extending Devers (and Bogaerts, if reasonable) and adding as big a bat at OF/DH/C as possible. If that's Judge, then you go cheap at C/DH. If Judge is unavailable, maybe you try something like signing José Abreu to DH and adding Mitch Haniger and Willson Contreras.

If things break right, we could have a pretty good staff. If they don't, we probably won't. We need a longer lineup, one way or another.
 

RedOctober3829

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I meant that having Whitlock and Houck in the rotation loses two good relievers from an already suspect pen. What does the pen look like next year with those two in the rotation…..Schreiber, Barnes, Danish, Kelly?

I guess it all comes down to what you think of the starting depth- Bello looks promising, but none of the other guys (the Winckowski, Seabolds, and Crawford’s of the world) are really prospects and it showed in how they performed.

Standing pat with the rotation might work out but it certainly seems risky to me.
Standing pat with the rotation will not work out. I They need to spend big in terms of FA or trade to get a top of the rotation guy to head the rotation up. There's enough quality depth that I think they can fill out the rest, but there's no ace. If you want to bring Eovaldi back on a qualifying offer for the middle of the rotation, that's fine. Let someone else pay Wacha.

Leave Whitlock and Houck in the pen. They screwed Whitlock up this year by yo-yo'ing him. Let him stay in the role that over the time he's been here he's been very good at.
 

tims4wins

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Jul 15, 2005
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I see what you're saying, but what really imploded our pitching this season and knocked us out of the race were two things:
  • Barnes getting his act together too slowly. How many late inning blown saves does the bullpen have if Barnes pitched in April and May (17 IP of ~5 FIP) like has has in August and September (~16 IP of 2.60 FIP)? Three fewer?
  • We weathered the first Sale injury (the stress fracture at the lockout-induced preseason workouts without the training staff — thank you, ownership) pretty decently, but what blew up our season was the overlapping simultaneous injuries to Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill and Whitlock. That's an entire good starting rotation on the IL at once.
I know that you're upset about Paxton, but he was filling a spot in the depth chart *that we only had* because he was starting the season on the 60-day IL. If he had to be on the 40-man, we couldn't have signed him.

But okay. Here's what I would do with the pitching for next season.

Assuming that they weren't lying when they sad that Paxton's stuff looked great before his rehab stint, I would aim to retain both Paxton and Wacha. If you can get Paxton cheaper than his option, great; otherwise exercise the option. Wacha should be gettable somewhere in the 2/$28m-3/$40m range; if it gets much higher than that, we look elsewhere for another oft-injured veteran with ace upside.

So the goal (health permitting) is to start the season with a rotation that looks like this:

Sale L
Wacha R
Paxton L
Pivetta R
Whitlock R

Then, in AAA, you have the following SP options.
Bello
Mata
Ward
Walter
Seabold
Winckowski
Murphy

That is seven-deep in minor league starters who could be viable MLB starters in 2023 for at least a spot start or few turns. I'm not really bullish on Murphy or Winckowski, but the other guys are real prospects — some with a bit of relief risk. I don't feel like people are appreciating the extent of that depth — I don't think we've ever had that kind of SP depth since I have been following the team. It allows us to go for upside over reliability with our big league rotation.

As for the bullpen, I think we should try to add at least another setup type, and maybe retain Strahm. We move on from Darwinzon Hernandez, Ryan Brasier, and
  • Barnes RH LaRussan closer
  • Houck RH multi-inning relief ace
  • Schreiber RH setup
  • Taylor LH setup, if he's still alive, — otherwise, try to retain Strahm. Andrew Chafin? Brad Hand?
  • New setup type, any handedness —
  • LH multi-inning guy — hopefully someone a bit better than Chris Murphy, but he'd be a guy who might be able to get 3-9 outs.
  • German RH middle relief
  • Kelly RH middle relief
Then we have guys like Ort, Wallace, Bazardo, Politi, and I am sure we'll add a few more who can bounce back and forth. Some people think that Bryan Mata's best role could be as a multi-inning reliever; maybe that role would make sense for Brandon Walter or Chris Murphy, too. That is another option, given that if we get good luck with health, we could have trouble finding SP innings for everyone in Worcester.

Big picture: is this a lock-down surefire excellent pitching staff? Not really. We have a ton of upside, considerable injury risk, but hopefully enough minor league depth to absorb that injury risk so long as it doesn't all happen at the same time. Would adding DeGrom or Rodon really improve things much? We already have an oft-injured ace, but if you wanted to spend more and sub a guy like that for Wacha, that would be a defensible move IMO.

We have a lot of money to spend, but if I'm spending money, I'm looking to shore up the top and middle of the order by extending Devers (and Bogaerts, if reasonable) and adding as big a bat at OF/DH/C as possible. If that's Judge, then you go cheap at C/DH. If Judge is unavailable, maybe you try something like signing José Abreu to DH and adding Mitch Haniger and Willson Contreras.

If things break right, we could have a pretty good staff. If they don't, we probably won't. We need a longer lineup, one way or another.
This post gives me a lot more optimism for 2023 than I've had lately. Thank you for this.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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This post gives me a lot more optimism for 2023 than I've had lately. Thank you for this.
I agree. It seems reasonable. I think this year we kind of see what happens when almost everything goes wrong. Obviously, for the team to do well, lots of things will have to go right and as much as we’d like to make a bunch of moves that guarantee a good pitching staff or team, I guess that’s not really how it works!
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I meant that having Whitlock and Houck in the rotation loses two good relievers from an already suspect pen. What does the pen look like next year with those two in the rotation…..Schreiber, Barnes, Danish, Kelly?

I guess it all comes down to what you think of the starting depth- Bello looks promising, but none of the other guys (the Winckowski, Seabolds, and Crawford’s of the world) are really prospects and it showed in how they performed.

Standing pat with the rotation might work out but it certainly seems risky to me.
I don't think anyone suggested standing pat with the rotation, or at least that wasn't what I was suggesting. I only think the rotation options in house don't necessitate expending a ton of resources on starters. I'd be fine with re-signing Wacha and maybe grabbing a swing-man type who could start or (more likely) provide long innings out of the pen. There's no real need to spend what it would take to get a Rodon or deGrom (though I won't shed a tear if they do get one of them).
 

Daniel_Son

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May 25, 2021
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I see what you're saying, but what really imploded our pitching this season and knocked us out of the race were two things:
  • Barnes getting his act together too slowly. How many late inning blown saves does the bullpen have if Barnes pitched in April and May (17 IP of ~5 FIP) like has has in August and September (~16 IP of 2.60 FIP)? Three fewer?
  • We weathered the first Sale injury (the stress fracture at the lockout-induced preseason workouts without the training staff — thank you, ownership) pretty decently, but what blew up our season was the overlapping simultaneous injuries to Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill and Whitlock. That's an entire good starting rotation on the IL at once.
I know that you're upset about Paxton, but he was filling a spot in the depth chart *that we only had* because he was starting the season on the 60-day IL. If he had to be on the 40-man, we couldn't have signed him.

But okay. Here's what I would do with the pitching for next season.

Assuming that they weren't lying when they sad that Paxton's stuff looked great before his rehab stint, I would aim to retain both Paxton and Wacha. If you can get Paxton cheaper than his option, great; otherwise exercise the option. Wacha should be gettable somewhere in the 2/$28m-3/$40m range; if it gets much higher than that, we look elsewhere for another oft-injured veteran with ace upside.

So the goal (health permitting) is to start the season with a rotation that looks like this:

Sale L
Wacha R
Paxton L
Pivetta R
Whitlock R

Then, in AAA, you have the following SP options.
Bello
Mata
Ward
Walter
Seabold
Winckowski
Murphy

That is seven-deep in minor league starters who could be viable MLB starters in 2023 for at least a spot start or few turns. I'm not really bullish on Murphy or Winckowski, but the other guys are real prospects — some with a bit of relief risk. I don't feel like people are appreciating the extent of that depth — I don't think we've ever had that kind of SP depth since I have been following the team. It allows us to go for upside over reliability with our big league rotation.

As for the bullpen, I think we should try to add at least another setup type, and maybe retain Strahm. We move on from Darwinzon Hernandez, Ryan Brasier, and
  • Barnes RH LaRussan closer
  • Houck RH multi-inning relief ace
  • Schreiber RH setup
  • Taylor LH setup, if he's still alive, — otherwise, try to retain Strahm. Andrew Chafin? Brad Hand?
  • New setup type, any handedness —
  • LH multi-inning guy — hopefully someone a bit better than Chris Murphy, but he'd be a guy who might be able to get 3-9 outs.
  • German RH middle relief
  • Kelly RH middle relief
Then we have guys like Ort, Wallace, Bazardo, Politi, and I am sure we'll add a few more who can bounce back and forth. Some people think that Bryan Mata's best role could be as a multi-inning reliever; maybe that role would make sense for Brandon Walter or Chris Murphy, too. That is another option, given that if we get good luck with health, we could have trouble finding SP innings for everyone in Worcester.

Big picture: is this a lock-down surefire excellent pitching staff? Not really. We have a ton of upside, considerable injury risk, but hopefully enough minor league depth to absorb that injury risk so long as it doesn't all happen at the same time. Would adding DeGrom or Rodon really improve things much? We already have an oft-injured ace, but if you wanted to spend more and sub a guy like that for Wacha, that would be a defensible move IMO.

We have a lot of money to spend, but if I'm spending money, I'm looking to shore up the top and middle of the order by extending Devers (and Bogaerts, if reasonable) and adding as big a bat at OF/DH/C as possible. If that's Judge, then you go cheap at C/DH. If Judge is unavailable, maybe you try something like signing José Abreu to DH and adding Mitch Haniger and Willson Contreras.

If things break right, we could have a pretty good staff. If they don't, we probably won't. We need a longer lineup, one way or another.
Small quibble, but you forgot Crawford, who IMO has pitched well enough to be penciled into the back of the starting rotation.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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We don’t need pitching is a weird take given how bad the pitching has been this year. Bello looks promising, if a bit raw, but he’s the top pitching prospect in the system by a mile. Are we confident at all that Whitlock and or Houck can be effective starters, never mind what that does to an already mediocre pen? Losing Wacha and Eovaldi and expecting the staff to be fronted by Sale, Paxton, and Pivetta seems really risky.
Not that we don't need anymore pitching, but speaking for myself I'd take Judge over spending the equivalent amount on FA pitching. If Judge does not want to come here or the bidding gets stupid high and Chaim is stuck looking through the next level of hitters, then my scales of pitching vs hitting FAs may change.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Jul 19, 2005
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I think it’s safe to assume that Bloom will bring in at least one SP of the Wacha/Hill/Perez variety. It’s a thing that he does.
 

nvalvo

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Small quibble, but you forgot Crawford, who IMO has pitched well enough to be penciled into the back of the starting rotation.
You're absolutely right, and that isn't really that small a quibble! I just sort of dashed that post off, as the sentence that ended halfway when I paused to try to remember which relief guys we'd already DFA'd.

I'm pretty bullish on Crawford too, but he's pretty clearly behind Whitlock and Bello on the SP depth chart, right? I'd say he's ahead of the Mata/ Ward/Seabold tier.

But yeah, with that taken on board, we have SP depth 13 deep without including Houck. (And this development is why I cannot join the Blame Bloom crowd.)
 

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud

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Jun 12, 2019
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I see what you're saying, but what really imploded our pitching this season and knocked us out of the race were two things:
  • Barnes getting his act together too slowly. How many late inning blown saves does the bullpen have if Barnes pitched in April and May (17 IP of ~5 FIP) like has has in August and September (~16 IP of 2.60 FIP)? Three fewer?
  • We weathered the first Sale injury (the stress fracture at the lockout-induced preseason workouts without the training staff — thank you, ownership) pretty decently, but what blew up our season was the overlapping simultaneous injuries to Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha, Hill and Whitlock. That's an entire good starting rotation on the IL at once.
I know that you're upset about Paxton, but he was filling a spot in the depth chart *that we only had* because he was starting the season on the 60-day IL. If he had to be on the 40-man, we couldn't have signed him.

But okay. Here's what I would do with the pitching for next season.

Assuming that they weren't lying when they sad that Paxton's stuff looked great before his rehab stint, I would aim to retain both Paxton and Wacha. If you can get Paxton cheaper than his option, great; otherwise exercise the option. Wacha should be gettable somewhere in the 2/$28m-3/$40m range; if it gets much higher than that, we look elsewhere for another oft-injured veteran with ace upside.

So the goal (health permitting) is to start the season with a rotation that looks like this:

Sale L
Wacha R
Paxton L
Pivetta R
Whitlock R

Then, in AAA, you have the following SP options.
Bello
Mata
Ward
Walter
Seabold
Winckowski
Murphy

That is seven-deep in minor league starters who could be viable MLB starters in 2023 for at least a spot start or few turns. I'm not really bullish on Murphy or Winckowski, but the other guys are real prospects — some with a bit of relief risk. I don't feel like people are appreciating the extent of that depth — I don't think we've ever had that kind of SP depth since I have been following the team. It allows us to go for upside over reliability with our big league rotation.

As for the bullpen, I think we should try to add at least another setup type, and maybe retain Strahm. We move on from Darwinzon Hernandez, Ryan Brasier, and
  • Barnes RH LaRussan closer
  • Houck RH multi-inning relief ace
  • Schreiber RH setup
  • Taylor LH setup, if he's still alive, — otherwise, try to retain Strahm. Andrew Chafin? Brad Hand?
  • New setup type, any handedness —
  • LH multi-inning guy — hopefully someone a bit better than Chris Murphy, but he'd be a guy who might be able to get 3-9 outs.
  • German RH middle relief
  • Kelly RH middle relief
Then we have guys like Ort, Wallace, Bazardo, Politi, and I am sure we'll add a few more who can bounce back and forth. Some people think that Bryan Mata's best role could be as a multi-inning reliever; maybe that role would make sense for Brandon Walter or Chris Murphy, too. That is another option, given that if we get good luck with health, we could have trouble finding SP innings for everyone in Worcester.

Big picture: is this a lock-down surefire excellent pitching staff? Not really. We have a ton of upside, considerable injury risk, but hopefully enough minor league depth to absorb that injury risk so long as it doesn't all happen at the same time. Would adding DeGrom or Rodon really improve things much? We already have an oft-injured ace, but if you wanted to spend more and sub a guy like that for Wacha, that would be a defensible move IMO.

We have a lot of money to spend, but if I'm spending money, I'm looking to shore up the top and middle of the order by extending Devers (and Bogaerts, if reasonable) and adding as big a bat at OF/DH/C as possible. If that's Judge, then you go cheap at C/DH. If Judge is unavailable, maybe you try something like signing José Abreu to DH and adding Mitch Haniger and Willson Contreras.

If things break right, we could have a pretty good staff. If they don't, we probably won't. We need a longer lineup, one way or another.
Thank you for being a voice of reason. I like Ort a bit more than you - I'd give him every chance to earn a role in 2023. Removing the 28-5 debacle, his ERA is just under 3.00 and his FIP is a reasonable 3.65 even with that game included. There's a lot of potential usage there for a minimum salary guy.
 

Daniel_Son

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You're absolutely right, and that isn't really that small a quibble! I just sort of dashed that post off, as the sentence that ended halfway when I paused to try to remember which relief guys we'd already DFA'd.

I'm pretty bullish on Crawford too, but he's pretty clearly behind Whitlock and Bello on the SP depth chart, right? I'd say he's ahead of the Mata/ Ward/Seabold tier.

But yeah, with that taken on board, we have SP depth 13 deep without including Houck. (And this development is why I cannot join the Blame Bloom crowd.)
I mean in terms of ceiling, yeah of course. But Crawford has demonstrated that he's a really solid piece all summer long against some pretty formidable opponents. Bello looks legit, but I want to see how he finishes out the year. With Whitlock, there's the question of whether he'd be most effective as a starter or a relief ace. To me, if I had to categorize the starters, here's what I'd do:

Tier 1: Proven, Solid, Dependable, Cost-Controlled
  • Crawford
  • Pivetta
Tier 2: Cost Controlled w/ Questions
  • Houck
  • Whitlock
  • Bello
  • Winchowski
  • Seabold
Tier 3: High Ceiling but Injured
  • Sale
  • Paxton
Tier 4: Unproven
  • Mata
  • Ward
  • Walter
  • Murphy
From here, you should be able to put together a decent rotation with a core composed of two Tier 1s and two Tier 2s. Let's say Crawford, Pivetta, Whitlock, and Bello. That gives the team space to build at the top with the Tier 3s if healthy, add a Tier 4 to the bottom if they're proving ready in AAA, or sign/trade for a #1 starter if the opportunity presents itself. Either way, that's really solid core.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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How is Crawford proven? He went 3-6 with a 5.47 ERA and got shelled down the stretch. How much if that is attributable to injury and how much to teams getting a book on him is important but impossible to know at this point. I think he’s interesting and is among the best if their depth guys but I wouldn’t pencil him into any role at his point.
 

Daniel_Son

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How is Crawford proven? He went 3-6 with a 5.47 ERA and got shelled down the stretch. How much if that is attributable to injury and how much to teams getting a book on him is important but impossible to know at this point. I think he’s interesting and is among the best if their depth guys but I wouldn’t pencil him into any role at his point.
He got absolutely shelled on August 19 and 25, and his last start against Minnesota wasn't great. But from his first real start of the season (June 12) through August 13 he put up a 3.33 ERA over 54 IP. That's nothing to sneeze at. Maybe "proven" is too strong, but he's done more at the major league level than Bello has at this point.
 

chawson

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Crawford's 7-game stretch from July 4 through August 13 was a nice proof of concept of what he could be as a starter, against some very tough opponents. Assuming his shoulder impingement is real and not a phantom reason to shut him down, I'm comfortable chalking up the last few outings to injury. It looks like the stuff is there for him to succeed at the major-league level, but whether he can fend off injury is another question.

Bello is another story. We gotta look past the ERA on this one. He's the real deal. He's got some command tweaks to make (though he was getting plenty squeezed in many starts). If his home run suppression is indeed a skill, the slightly elevated walk rate is not a problem. The total package is a lot like Luis Castillo.
 

grimshaw

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He got absolutely shelled on August 19 and 25, and his last start against Minnesota wasn't great. But from his first real start of the season (June 12) through August 13 he put up a 3.33 ERA over 54 IP. That's nothing to sneeze at. Maybe "proven" is too strong, but he's done more at the major league level than Bello has at this point.
I'd be very surprised if he was locked into the rotation next season. I think he'll be on the staff, but would think they'd have bigger plans for the rotation.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'd be very surprised if he was locked into the rotation next season. I think he'll be on the staff, but would think they'd have bigger plans for the rotation.
I presume you mean Crawford and not Bello, I agree. Likely he’ll be 6th o the opening/ spring training plan…. Very likely stepping in for one of Paxton or Sale quickly though. He’s a good Plan B.
My feelings are that Paxton will be delayed for 2 months and he’ll start there. Will move to the pen for June when Paxton makes it up then will step in for Sale for July and August as a starter and back to the pen to close the season and hopefully wil be a post-season weapon there.
 

dhappy42

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I was about to post a similar poll when I saw this one.

If you had to choose between Bogaerts and Judge, which would you pick? And why?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I was about to post a similar poll when I saw this one.

If you had to choose between Bogaerts and Judge, which would you pick? And why?
Is it Judge for 10 years and $35M AAV or Bogaerts at 7 years and $28M AAV (what I think each will get). In this case it's X. If the years are the same but AAV is the same then Judge. Same with years being the same but AAV being at my guess. And I think Judge may have 1 healthy season left in him before he's on the chronic injured list.
 

dhappy42

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Is it Judge for 10 years and $35M AAV or Bogaerts at 7 years and $28M AAV (what I think each will get). In this case it's X. If the years are the same but AAV is the same then Judge. Same with years being the same but AAV being at my guess. And I think Judge may have 1 healthy season left in him before he's on the chronic injured list.
It’s one or the other on whatever contract you think they’ll get. Initially, I included my own salary guesstimates in the question, but that muddies the poll.
 

sean1562

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Are we hoping that Paxton picks up his $4 million player option or that he automatically re-signs with us at a lower rate? The guy had one season in 2017 where he was "elite" but still only pitched 136 innings. He was decent enough in 2018 and 2019 but hasn't really pitched in 3 years and is 34 years old next season. How many innings could he realistically throw next season even if he was completely healthy after not pitching for three years? 130? 150? If he doesn't take the $4 million player option for next year I really hope the Sox just move on and spend that money elsewhere.

Mike Clevinger will probably be willing to sign a one year prove it type deal and was significantly better than Paxton has ever been. But I don't know if Clevinger was a product of heave sticky stuff usage or not.
 

chawson

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Are we hoping that Paxton picks up his $4 million player option or that he automatically re-signs with us at a lower rate? The guy had one season in 2017 where he was "elite" but still only pitched 136 innings. He was decent enough in 2018 and 2019 but hasn't really pitched in 3 years and is 34 years old next season. How many innings could he realistically throw next season even if he was completely healthy after not pitching for three years? 130? 150? If he doesn't take the $4 million player option for next year I really hope the Sox just move on and spend that money elsewhere.

Mike Clevinger will probably be willing to sign a one year prove it type deal and was significantly better than Paxton has ever been. But I don't know if Clevinger was a product of heave sticky stuff usage or not.
I’m not seeing a lot to be excited about in Clevinger’s post-injury profile. He’s turned into an extreme fly ball pitcher, which would not great for Fenway. There’s reportedly a lot of character issues too.

I’m on the fence about Paxton. It’ll seem to come down to how well they like(d) his stuff in a private session, but you’re right about the innings concerns.