Judon traded to Atlanta for a 3rd round pick

[RG33]

While not having Barmore and now Judon has really saddened my outlook on this year’s defense (and team), this is a no-brainer move. To grab a top 100 pick for an older guy on the last year of his contract who doesn’t really want to be here is a great deal for where this team is at.

This gives them an extra 3rd on top of the two extra 7ths in next years’ draft (they don’t have a 6th due to the JC Jackson deal).

 

[mikeot]

Thanks for the memories Matt. Good deal, makes sense long-term.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

I am delighted to have another reason to root against the Falcons, after the humiliating way they treated Belichick. Screw those guys, I hope they lose ‘em all.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Is it too early to say that he will be inactive tomorrow?

 

[BigSoxFan]

Good trade and I always enjoy having a team to root against during the season. Too bad there isn’t much else to sell.

 

[Harry Hooper]

I know I know he wanted one more payday, but felt like he's bailed on us mid-rebuild. Oh well.

He tried to recruit players, but BB's late-career foibles and then the new staff meant this wasn't the team he signed up for. Fair to let him move on, and a nice return too.

 

[mauf]

How’s Atlanta this year? Is that 3rd closer to top half (2nd round) or bottom half (fourth)?

I'd say the middle. Likely aren't appreciably better (or worse) than last year's 7-10 record.

It’s hard to know but Judon addresses their biggest need: pass rush and in particular edge rusher. They are probably a middle of the pack team with a good ceiling if they can get quality QB play.

The Falcons are actually a fairly strong favorite to win the NFC South (-150, per MGM). I wouldn’t expect the Falcons to make a deep playoff run, and there’s upside for the Pats if the Falcons are worse than expected, but a pick somewhere in the mid-late 80s should probably be the baseline expectation.

 

[Pxer]

He was so easy to root for. Glad we got some value back. Here's to hoping our defense makes some strides, Maye looks really good late in the season and we still end up with a top-3 pick.

 

[leetinsley38]

I am delighted to have another reason to root against the Falcons, after the humiliating way they treated Belichick. Screw those guys, I hope they lose ‘em all.

Easy there - we need them to win at least 2-3 games.
Great return. Who else can we flip for a pick?

 

[astrozombie]

Great return, though I am sad to see Judon go. Solid play and he seemed like he actually wanted to be here, or at least with BB, which was (and is) increasingly rare. This seems like it was a win for everyone involved.

 

[rodderick]

Great return, though I am sad to see Judon go. Solid play and he seemed like he actually wanted to be here, or at least with BB, which was (and is) increasingly rare. This seems like it was a win for everyone involved.

Huh? The first words he said after signing with the Pats were "I came because they offered me the most money" and then he proceeded to hold in twice for more money. Nothing wrong with that, he's a professional, but I never got the inkling he really loved being a Patriot and "wanted to be here". He was happy to play for the most money he could get, then was traded when the team wasn't willing to give him more. So long.

 

[joe dokes]

I suspect he will have at least part of a good year or 2 for Atlanta, upon which the Volins of the world will be reporting priaprismically. That *should* not matter in the trade analysis. Let's see if we are collectively up to that task of it not mattering. (If one thing Mayo took from BB was "it's usually better to trade a guy a year too soon than a year too late," that would be good.).
Right move for all concerned. (or at least for the Patriots and Judon).

 

[astrozombie]

Huh? The first words he said after signing with the Pats were "I came because they offered me the most money" and then he proceeded to hold in twice for more money. Nothing wrong with that, he's a professional, but I never got the inkling he really loved being a Patriot and "wanted to be here". He was happy to play for the most money he could get, then was traded when the team wasn't willing to give him more. So long.

I might have missed that but I don't recall him saying that - source?
As for wanting to be here, he generally gave off the vibe of being happy here and tried (unsuccessfully) to recruit guys which I don't think you do if you hate the team you're on or only see them as a bank. And with regards to his hold ins, you can like where you are and still want more money. See Aiyuk, Brandon.

 

[rodderick]

I might have missed that but I don't recall him saying that - source?
As for wanting to be here, he generally gave off the vibe of being happy here and tried (unsuccessfully) to recruit guys which I don't think you do if you hate the team you're on or only see them as a bank. And with regards to his hold ins, you can like where you are and still want more money. See Aiyuk, Brandon.

His response as to why he chose to play with the Patriots was "they chose me" and I really can't take that in any way other than "they put the best offer on the table, so here I am". Which, again, is perfectly fine and how 99% of players operate (and should operate). I just don't think he ever made many attempts to conceal the fact that he was happy to be a Patriot only as long as the money was right. Don't think he looked like he actually wanted to play in New England any more than any other guy they have under contract.

 

[lexrageorge]

I think it can be true that he both (a) wanted to be here and (b) wanted to maximize his earnings during his short NFL career. It's not an either/or, although at times those goals can indeed be in conflict with any NFL player.

He got hurt last season after 4 games. It was an uncomplicated injury that is unlikely to recur, but the nature of the NFL is such that he could get hurt again. This next contract is likely to be his last.

There are risks with trading him, but there were also risks to extending him. I think Wolf and team chose wisely in this case, but it's one of those moves that will be part of the accounting of the Wolf era when all is said and done.

 

[Garshaparra]

I think Judon was happy to be a Patriot because BB got the most out of his talents. He could scheme up and rush, stack or drop smoothly, and never seemed like a guy who just did his flashiest thing (rushing the QB) as a freelancer, but he was also the guy BB would let loose. With Bill gone, a clear rebuild year ahead, and a lingering contract, he had every reason to nudge his way out. ATL seems so foolishly managed, I can't see team success there, but if he stays healthy, he'll end the year with double-digit sacks and be a favorite for sure. And presumably, he wouldn't have taken the trade without an extension in the works.

As for the return, a mid-3rd rounder would have landed us another bite at the OT project, someone like Kiran Amegadjie ("The Yale Guy" that was cited as a possibility for the Pats before they took Wallace), or perhaps an RB, S or EDGE that had slipped.

 

[astrozombie]

His response as to why he chose to play with the Patriots was "they chose me" and I really can't take that in any way other than "they put the best offer on the table, so here I am". Which, again, is perfectly fine and how 99% of players operate (and should operate). I just don't think he ever made many attempts to conceal the fact that he was happy to be a Patriot only as long as the money was right. Don't think he looked like he actually wanted to play in New England any more than any other guy they have under contract.

We're going to have to disagree on our interpretations of that text here. I agree with @lexrageorge that it's entirely plausible that the Pats gave him the most money because they wanted him AND he was happy to be here, both financially and professionally. Again, I base this off him being a visible team leader and cheerleader for the team during his time here, his pressers, as well as a defensive system that let him shine, plus his attempts to recruit. This wasn't Tavarez signing with the Nationals.

 

[Saints Rest]

One of the Pats beat writers -- Lazar, I think but I'm not 100% -- noted how the Pats actually appeared (pre-trade) to have decent depth at DE/Edge with Jennings, White, Uche, and Wise returning and Ximines showing quite a bit in camp.

 

[normstalls]

I think it can be true that he both (a) wanted to be here and (b) wanted to maximize his earnings during his short NFL career. It's not an either/or, although at times those goals can indeed be in conflict with any NFL player.

He got hurt last season after 4 games. It was an uncomplicated injury that is unlikely to recur, but the nature of the NFL is such that he could get hurt again. This next contract is likely to be his last.

There are risks with trading him, but there were also risks to extending him. I think Wolf and team chose wisely in this case, but it's one of those moves that will be part of the accounting of the Wolf era when all is said and done.

I'd argue there is basically no risk in trading him. This team has zero expectations, by all accounts and predictions they are a bottom 5 team in the league. If you are going to rebuild, you might as well go all in on the process.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I'd argue there is basically no risk in trading him. This team has zero expectations, by all accounts and predictions they are a bottom 5 team in the league. If you are going to rebuild, you might as well go all in on the process.

Agreed. To me, the only risks we’re associated with keeping him, either signing him to a big deal that he might not live up to given his age or him getting hurt and tanking any value before trade deadline. Really glad Pats locked in a good return here.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Agreed. To me, the only risks we’re associated with keeping him, either signing him to a big deal that he might not live up to given his age or him getting hurt and tanking any value before trade deadline. Really glad Pats locked in a good return here.

Exactly. Upside potential was incredibly small, given his age and the contract that he was seeking. Best case--he more or less matches the contract value with performance. He was never going to exceed it, so no upside. And most of the simulations have him failing to meet the value of the contract via injury, age-related decline, etc.

Pats paid a bunch of guys this offseason, and probably some of those deals don't work out. But this one had a decent chance to become an albatross, and we not only avoided that but got a 3rd. Big win imo.

 

[ShaneTrot]

He was one of the highlights of the last few years. I will miss him, Judon has been a fun guy to root for. I hope he does well and gets a bag of Arthur Blank's money.

 

[Saints Rest]

Exactly. Upside potential was incredibly small, given his age and the contract that he was seeking. Best case--he more or less matches the contract value with performance. He was never going to exceed it, so no upside. And most of the simulations have him failing to meet the value of the contract via injury, age-related decline, etc.

Pats paid a bunch of guys this offseason, and probably some of those deals don't work out. But this one had a decent chance to become an albatross, and we not only avoided that but got a 3rd. Big win imo.

I think Uche has the most $ to gain from this trade, as I seem to recall his contract is one of those incentive-laden ones. This opens up a lot of PT for him. OTOH, he shined brightest when he was lined up opposite Judon.

EDIT: I found this:

While the base value of Uche’s new contract is comparatively small, he can boost it by an additional $5 million through various incentives. If he makes the Pro Bowl on first ballot or is able to reach certain playing time thresholds, for example, he stands to earn extra cash on top of his $3 million base.

 

[LaszloKovacks]

View: https://twitter.com/man_dammn/status/1824134130843459991

 

[NextBigThing8184]

3rd round pick is unlikely to amount to anything but even a 10% chance at a good player is more than Judon is worth to this team given 2024 is a write off and he wasn’t worth re-signing.

 

[macal]

3rd round pick is unlikely to amount to anything but even a 10% chance at a good player is more than Judon is worth to this team given 2024 is a write off and he wasn’t worth re-signing.

It also gives us more ammunition for a trade. If that ends up being the sweetener that puts us over the top to clinch a deal or move up in the draft, then definitely worth it.

 

[Gash Prex]

Its surprising but Judon does not have a new contract in place with Atlanta as a part of the trade...but a "plan to work on one." Seems risky to me...

 

[astrozombie]

Its surprising but Judon does not have a new contract in place with Atlanta as a part of the trade...but a "plan to work on one." Seems risky to me...

It is wild Atlanta did this, but they also spent this past offseason going with Raheem Morris over BB and drafting Penix in the first round after they signed Cousins. So... who knows what is going on in the FO down there.

 

[johnmd20]

It is wild Atlanta did this, but they also spent this past offseason going with Raheem Morris over BB and drafting Penix in the first round after they signed Cousins. So... who knows what is going on in the FO down there.

The Penix draft pick kind of required making this trade. And the Penix pick still baffles me. In listening to a lot of NFL podcasts, it baffles everyone. It added nothing to the team for 2024 and you can make the case it will actively hurt the team because they have a highly paid QB already.

And it's not like Penix was Maye or Caleb. He's been made of glass his entire college career. That probably won't work in the NFL.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Its surprising but Judon does not have a new contract in place with Atlanta as a part of the trade...but a "plan to work on one." Seems risky to me...

basically same situation as the Jets with Reddick.

On the other hand... ATL plays in an absolutely trash division, has Cousins coming in to make a SB push and their biggest weakness is pass rush. I would bet they get some kind of deal done.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

View: https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/status/1825267200933925210

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Classy move.