Inexplicably, my son decided about a year ago that his favorite NFL team is the Jaguars. This is not without disadvantages (at Christmas time, you can't just stroll into Bob's and pick up a Cecil Shorts T-shirt), but it means I have more to say about this topic than I otherwise would.
Two observations:
- The Jags' canned their GM after the season. The new GM (David Caldwell) has steered away from high-priced free agents and made solid but not splashy draft picks -- including two WRs in the middle rounds (assuming you count Denard Robinson as a wideout). It's clear that Caldwell has ownership's blessing to field a terrible team again in 2013 if that's the right way to build for 2014 and beyond. Sure, the Jags have historically been mismanaged, but there's no indication that's still the case.
- Cecil Shorts wasn't a starter at the beginning of the season but still finished with 55 catches for 979 yards. Blackmon played the whole season and had 64 catches for 865 yards. Sure, that's a solid debut, and Blackmon isn't a bust by any means, but when you're not the biggest big-play threat on a woeful team like the Jags, you have basically no chance of becoming a game-changer like Megatron or A.J. Green (which I presume is what the Jags thought Blackmon could be).
Pulling those facts together: Caldwell didn't draft Blackmon, so it's no skin off his nose to admit that the kid's not going to be a star. And if he agrees with me that Blackmon won't be a star, all his value to the Jags resides in the next 3 seasons -- and it's pretty clear that Caldwell expects his team to suck for at least 1 of those 3 seasons.
So while Caldwell isn't stupid enough to cut Blackmon to make a point, he could very well be available by trade. The Jags could let Blackmon go, let Ace Sanders play every down (or Robinson, if he makes the position change seamlessly), and likely pocket a 1st round pick in next year's draft.
So let's frame the question a little differently -- if you were BB, would you trade your 1st rounder next season for Blackmon?
