Keith Law's midseason top 50

ctsoxfan5 · Jul 17, 2014

cwright said:
Keith Law released his midseason top 50 prospects, and of course it's insider-only so I can't see the entire list. Here's what I can piece together from a couple of sites:
Link for top 10 and Cubs

1. Kris Bryant 3B CHC
2. Byron Buxton OF MIN
3. Carlos Correa SS HOU
4. Addison Russell SS CHC
5. Corey Seager SS LAD
6. Francisco Lindor SS CLE
7. Jonathan Gray RHP COL
8. Javier Baez SS CHC
9. Archie Bradley RHP ARI
10. Carlos Rodon LHP CHW
15. J.P. Crawford SS PHI
18. Joey Gallo 3B TEX
28. Jorge Soler OF CHC
31. Jorge Alfaro C TEX
46. Aaron Judge OF NYY (only Yankee prospect on list)

Anyone with insider access, want to fill me in on the Red Sox?

Your link to his midseason top 50 goes to the 2013 list. That threw me for a few minutes.

Sox players:

23. Owens
27. Swihart

moondog80 · Jul 17, 2014

cwright said:
Keith Law released his midseason top 50 prospects, and of course it's insider-only so I can't see the entire list. Here's what I can piece together from a couple of sites:
Link for top 10 and Cubs

1. Kris Bryant 3B CHC
2. Byron Buxton OF MIN
3. Carlos Correa SS HOU
4. Addison Russell SS CHC
5. Corey Seager SS LAD
6. Francisco Lindor SS CLE
7. Jonathan Gray RHP COL
8. Javier Baez SS CHC
9. Archie Bradley RHP ARI
10. Carlos Rodon LHP CHW
15. J.P. Crawford SS PHI
18. Joey Gallo 3B TEX
28. Jorge Soler OF CHC
31. Jorge Alfaro C TEX
46. Aaron Judge OF NYY (only Yankee prospect on list)

Anyone with insider access, want to fill me in on the Red Sox?

(Edit: Fixed link to Law's article)

Joey Gallo? I thought it was Joey CALLO?

Leather · Jul 17, 2014

moondog80 said:
Joey Gallo? I thought it was Joey CALLO?

He died!

mabrowndog · Jul 17, 2014

23. Henry Owens, LHP | Boston Red Sox
Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (Portland)
Preseason Ranking: 42
Owens doesn't throw hard, mostly 90-92 but up to 94 whenever he needs it, succeeding with tremendous deception in his delivery and one of the minors' best changeups, which has made him more effective against right-handed hitters than lefties throughout his pro career. His breaking ball is soft but good enough to get some lefties out, although it could be a solid-average pitch for him if he tightens it up and gets more velocity on it. He doesn't have the high ceiling of the arms above him on this list. But if his fastball command improves, he'll be a #2 or very good #3 starter for the Sox.

27. Blake Swihart, C | Boston Red Sox
Age: 22 | Current Level: AA (Portland)
Preseason Ranking: 56
Swihart was one of those dreaded 19-year-old high school seniors when the Red Sox took him in the first round of the 2011 draft, but his raw tools merited the pick and Boston has been rewarded for their patience with him. He's now 22 and playing well on both sides of the ball in Double-A. He's hit more homers this year (10) than in his previous two years combined, his receiving continues to improve and he's nailed 54 percent of opposing basestealers -- or would-be basestealers, given that kind of success rate. He's their catcher of the future, perhaps as soon as this time next year.

mabrowndog · Jul 17, 2014

Like the Yankees, the Rays and Jays also have only one prospect on the list. For TBR it's #44 Taylor Guerreri (RHP), while TOR has #37 Daniel Norris (LHP).

The Orioles have two: #12 Dylan Bundy (RHP) & #13 Hunter Harvey (RHP).

The Twins lead the pack with six (#2 Byron Buxton, CF; #11 Miguel Sano, 3B; #19 Kohl Stewart, RHP; #25 Nick Gordon, SS; #42 Alex Meyer, RHP; #50 Jose Berrios, RHP), and that doesn't include Futures Game participants Kennys Vargas & Trevor May.

moondog80 · Jul 17, 2014

mabrowndog said:
The Twins lead the pack with six (#2 Byron Buxton, CF; #11 Miguel Sano, 3B; #19 Kohl Stewart, RHP; #25 Nick Gordon, SS; #42 Alex Meyer, RHP; #50 Jose Berrios, RHP), and that doesn't include Futures Game participants Kennys Vargas & Trevor May.

Almost as impressive are the Cubs: #1 Kris Bryant, #4 Addison Russell, #8 Javier Baez, and #28 Jorge Soler.

Snodgrass'Muff · Jul 17, 2014

mabrowndog said:
Like the Yankees, the Rays and Jays also have only one prospect on the list. For TBR it's #44 Taylor Guerreri (RHP), while TOR has #37 Daniel Norris (LHP).

The Orioles have two: #12 Dylan Bundy (RHP) & #13 Hunter Harvey (RHP).

The Twins lead the pack with six (#2 Byron Buxton, CF; #11 Miguel Sano, 3B; #19 Kohl Stewart, RHP; #25 Nick Gordon, SS; #42 Alex Meyer, RHP; #50 Jose Berrios, RHP), and that doesn't include Futures Game participants Kennys Vargas & Trevor May.

The twins lead the pack in raw number of prospects listed, but the Cubs have the number 1, 4, 8 and 28 prospects on that list. That's just insane. I know they just added Russell in a trade, but holy shit.

Auger34 · Jul 17, 2014

Reading this raised a pretty interesting question to me. After the trade for Addison Russell and Billy McKinney, I thought the Cubs had far and away the best farm system in the league. But after looking this over, it seems the Twins are up there as well. 6 of Law's top 50 (and as browndog pointed out) 2 Futures Game participants weren't even on that list. So I guess the question is, do the Twinkies have a better system than the Cubbies? (It seems like those two are in the top tier and then the Red Sox/Astros are in the next tier)

mabrowndog · Jul 17, 2014

I'd say the Cubs, since their top prospects are all at AA and AAA. They've advanced past the lower levels to succeed against stiffer competition, and they're closer to producing value for the big club. The Twins have better overall depth, for sure. But the Cubs have the best potential for immediate impact.

smastroyin · Jul 17, 2014

The problem with any prospect list is that promotion figures into it. That's why I kind of like the under-25 lists better when talking about organizational depth.

Put it this way, if Bradley, Bogaerts, and Betts were raking in the minors instead of struggling in the majors, the Sox list would look a lot different. Not that I want a specific "ooh ooh Red Sox!" post, it's just we can relate more to those players since we know them. Maybe it would be better to say that there is no way the Sox would have Bryant still sitting in Pawtucket right now, for instance. I can totally understand why the Cubs are doing it, though.

wutang112878 · Jul 17, 2014

23. Henry Owens, LHP | Boston Red Sox
Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (Portland)
Preseason Ranking: 42
Owens doesn't throw hard, mostly 90-92 but up to 94 whenever he needs it, succeeding with tremendous deception in his delivery and one of the minors' best changeups, which has made him more effective against right-handed hitters than lefties throughout his pro career. His breaking ball is soft but good enough to get some lefties out, although it could be a solid-average pitch for him if he tightens it up and gets more velocity on it. He doesn't have the high ceiling of the arms above him on this list. But if his fastball command improves, he'll be a #2 or very good #3 starter for the Sox.

Perhaps this just speaks to the rarity of starting pitching, but this means that in all of MLB's minor league pipeline, there are only 22 players who project to be more important than a #2 starter. And if the top 10 is any indication and there are 3 pitchers for every 10 prospects, there are only a max of 6 aces in the pipeline. Is this list really more of a 'of the players who are less than a year from the majors' list?

Brianish · Jul 17, 2014

wutang112878 said:
Perhaps this just speaks to the rarity of starting pitching, but this means that in all of MLB's minor league pipeline, there are only 22 players who project to be more important than a #2 starter. And if the top 10 is any indication and there are 3 pitchers for every 10 prospects, there are only a max of 6 aces in the pipeline. Is this list really more of a 'of the players who are less than a year from the majors' list?

Keep in mind, ratings are a combination of a prospect's projection and his likelihood to reach that projection.

Sprowl · Jul 17, 2014

wutang112878 said:
Perhaps this just speaks to the rarity of starting pitching, but this means that in all of MLB's minor league pipeline, there are only 22 players who project to be more important than a #2 starter. And if the top 10 is any indication and there are 3 pitchers for every 10 prospects, there are only a max of 6 aces in the pipeline. Is this list really more of a 'of the players who are less than a year from the majors' list?

Isn't the yield ratio a little higher by the time they get around to being rated as potential starters? 22 projected #1 starters sounds about right for a 30-team league in which the cellar-dwellers are desperately seeking a #1 starter.

mwonow · Jul 17, 2014

Sprowl said:
Isn't the yield ratio a little higher by the time they get around to being rated as potential starters? 22 projected #1 starters sounds about right for a 30-team league in which the cellar-dwellers are desperately seeking a #1 starter.

Yeah but - if I read this right, there aren't 22 pitchers above Owens, there are 22 players regardless of position, meaning only a handful of potential aces...

IdiotKicker · Jul 17, 2014

wutang112878 said:
Perhaps this just speaks to the rarity of starting pitching, but this means that in all of MLB's minor league pipeline, there are only 22 players who project to be more important than a #2 starter. And if the top 10 is any indication and there are 3 pitchers for every 10 prospects, there are only a max of 6 aces in the pipeline. Is this list really more of a 'of the players who are less than a year from the majors' list?

You figure prospect cycles typically last 3-4 years, so sith the average career of an "ace" being 12-15 years, it would make sense that there are only 5-7 a cycle. All #1 starters are not the same age, so it's really your top few guys from any prospect cycle.

DaubachmanTurnerOD · Jul 18, 2014

I haven't seen Law's list, but my guess would be that the distribution of pitchers to position players in the top 10 is not representative of the entire list.

Because of the heightened risk of career altering/ending injury, pitchers are often pushed lower on these lists then their equivalently-talented position player peers.

In fact, with 3 pitchers in the top 10, law might be on the high side.

wutang112878 · Jul 18, 2014

Brianish said:
Keep in mind, ratings are a combination of a prospect's projection and his likelihood to reach that projection.

By the sounds of it though Owens likelihood is really high, but it also seems his ceiling is very clearly defined as well which is almost as important.

Sprowl said:
Isn't the yield ratio a little higher by the time they get around to being rated as potential starters? 22 projected #1 starters sounds about right for a 30-team league in which the cellar-dwellers are desperately seeking a #1 starter.

You would think so, and I would also think if you have a 'he is probably going to be an ace' in your system that guy is going to skyrocket in terms of importance. Which is why I was surprised there were only 3 aces in the top 10. I would have thought the top 10-15 would have included every 'probably an ace, in MLB in 2yrs or less' guys and your franchise player level of every day players.

Chuck Z said:
You figure prospect cycles typically last 3-4 years, so sith the average career of an "ace" being 12-15 years, it would make sense that there are only 5-7 a cycle. All #1 starters are not the same age, so it's really your top few guys from any prospect cycle.

This math kind of puts it in perspective. I have to plead ignorance, but is there anyone on this list that is really more than 2 years away from MLB? So now we are talking maybe 6 aces are generated every 2 years, or 3 aces a year, or 1 per franchise every 10 years. And if we are defining true aces where Verlander is an ace but Cole Hamels is a debate then those quantities probably sound about right.

Detts · Jul 18, 2014

Snodgrass'Muff said:
The twins lead the pack in raw number of prospects listed, but the Cubs have the number 1, 4, 8 and 28 prospects on that list. That's just insane. I know they just added Russell in a trade, but holy shit.

This doesn't even take into account first round pick Kyle Schwarber from this year as he has already been promoted twice, and now sits at High class A Daytona. He has a 404/484/725 slash line.

benhogan · Jul 20, 2014

mabrowndog said:
Like the Yankees, the Rays and Jays also have only one prospect on the list. For TBR it's #44 Taylor Guerreri (RHP), while TOR has #37 Daniel Norris (LHP).

The Orioles have two: #12 Dylan Bundy (RHP) & #13 Hunter Harvey (RHP).

The Twins lead the pack with six (#2 Byron Buxton, CF; #11 Miguel Sano, 3B; #19 Kohl Stewart, RHP; #25 Nick Gordon, SS; #42 Alex Meyer, RHP; #50 Jose Berrios, RHP), and that doesn't include Futures Game participants Kennys Vargas & Trevor May.

Portland lit Norris up yesterday

Swihart with a 3-run bomb in the 3rd.

Keith Law's midseason top 50

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