Thought this merited its own discussion:
2018 Game log going back to May:
Walk and HR rates are both higher than typical--2nd highest (excluding partial rookie season) and highest, respectively. Not surprisingly, then, FIP/xFIP don't like him so much this year.
June 11 through July 2 saw 8 walks in 7 2/3 IP. There were another 3 walks on July 27. Those 11 are about half of his walks for the year. It seems like he may be more prone to fits of wildness than in the past. On the other hand, it could be a signal that something has been not quite right since some time in June.
Having had 2 bad walk games on 7/27 and 8/4 makes it more likely that we perceive apparent control problems.
I wonder if the HR rate is just a consequence of there being more uppercut-type swings due to increasing interest in launch angle. His ground ball rate is near its minimum for his career.
Let's go to the data. From Fangraphs (major league only):Kimbrel is going to be a problem if he can't get his control back. He's throwing 37% of his pitches in the strike zone compared to around 45% over the rest of his career. It's clear that you can have success against him just going up there and taking pitches until he can get one over. I don't know if it was the lost spring or some injury he's had, but it's been the case all year long and hasn't shown any signs of getting better.
2018 Game log going back to May:
Walk and HR rates are both higher than typical--2nd highest (excluding partial rookie season) and highest, respectively. Not surprisingly, then, FIP/xFIP don't like him so much this year.
June 11 through July 2 saw 8 walks in 7 2/3 IP. There were another 3 walks on July 27. Those 11 are about half of his walks for the year. It seems like he may be more prone to fits of wildness than in the past. On the other hand, it could be a signal that something has been not quite right since some time in June.
Having had 2 bad walk games on 7/27 and 8/4 makes it more likely that we perceive apparent control problems.
I wonder if the HR rate is just a consequence of there being more uppercut-type swings due to increasing interest in launch angle. His ground ball rate is near its minimum for his career.