Koji to or not Koji to? That is the question.

NDame616

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Not going to link it bc it's a few tweets, but the Twittersphere is buzzing about Koji also going to StL....
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Tyrone Biggums said:
Yeah there is no way in hell the Sox include Koji in a Craig + prospects deal. If they do then Boston's system is probably getting reloaded.
 
I think you vastly overestimate the trade value of a three-month rental of a 39-year-old relief pitcher, no matter how distinguished his recent resume.
 

InsideTheParker

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BosRedSox5 said:
I know Craig is struggling this season, but there's speculation that is related to an injury. From 2011-2013 he was absolutely outstanding. That's a period of about two and a half seasons and he slashed .312/.364/.500/.863. OPS+ was 136, and his spray charts seem to indicate that he uses the whole field. He did all this while being a supersub in 2011 (played 6 different positions) and moving between LF, RF and 1B from 2012-2013. He's had a good amount of big league success. I'm kind of scratching my head on why people around here seem so down on him. 
Perhaps we are shy about injured players after Victorino. If we got as much from Craig as we got from the Torino, I'd be thrilled. But the injury is worrying. Also, the Cards are nobody's fools. They let Mujica go, how's that working out? If Koji is truly on the block, I guess Mujica's the closer. Oy vey.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
I think you vastly overestimate the trade value of a three-month rental of a 39-year-old relief pitcher, no matter how distinguished his recent resume.
Perhaps but if we are looking at current numbers Craig is under contract for a few seasons at a decent contract by his previous production standard. If he produces as he is now for the rest of the contract he becomes an albatross. Relievers have a major market at the deadline. Not to mention if they win a World Series the year prior and continue to dominate. Unless the return is great you don't trade Koji.
 

Rovin Romine

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
I think you vastly overestimate the trade value of a three-month rental of a 39-year-old relief pitcher, no matter how distinguished his recent resume.
 
But they've seen (personally) how pivotal Uehara can be in a short series.  For instance, Ue's got a sweet pick off move.  
 

Darnell's Son

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Tyrone Biggums

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Darnell's Son said:
Why are people even talking about Koji?
I don't know. It came up in the thread and it didn't make sense to me. Koji should not be moved in order to get Craig
 

MakMan44

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Tyrone Biggums said:
I don't know. It came up in the thread and it didn't make sense to me. Koji should not be moved in order to get Craig
Correct
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Rovin Romine said:
 
But they've seen (personally) how pivotal Uehara can be in a short series.  For instance, Ue's got a sweet pick off move.  
 
I'm not saying they wouldn't want him; of course they would. But the Sox aren't going to "reload their farm system" by trading Uehara. Just not gon' happen.
 

Byrdbrain

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I don't think anyone is saying Koji shouldn't be traded just that there is no real reason to believe he is involved in this Peavy deal which is what this thread is about.
 

Darnell's Son

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Plympton91 said:
Who closes in 2015? Or are they punting 2 seasons?
Seriously?
 
Now we're worried about who's going to close next year in the Peavy thread? The closer for 2015 shouldn't even be in the back of Cherington's mind right now, especially when our farm system is stacked and if they really need to, they can trade for a closer.
 

Sprowl

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judyb said:
Who closes in 2015 if they don't trade him? They don't control him in 2015 whether they trade him or not.
 
This is true. Koji is free as a bird after 2014. He has put in his time in Baltimore, Texas and Japan. Either the Red Sox make it worth his while to stay for another year -- and he is the best closer after Rivera -- or they trade him in July to a team that needs the best closer after Rivera to go all the way in 2014.
 

The Gray Eagle

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If Uehara goes through another pennant race and another postseason, the bullets in his gun will probably be pretty much used up. He already looks fatigued after being ridden so hard last year. We need to sign him for next year and then rest him for most of the rest of this season.
 
Keeping him as closer for this team for the rest of the year would ensure he gets plenty of rest and will be ready for next year. 
 
As for Peavy, I'd be ecstatic to get either Craig or Grichuk for him. I don't care how much of his contract we would have to pay either. We need the rotation spot now, and getting a guy back who might be a good hitter next year would be a great bonus. 
 

mt8thsw9th

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Plympton91 said:
Who closes in 2015? Or are they punting 2 seasons?
 
They should at least look at the re-signability of Miller, and his worth relative to a team like the Dodgers, who could use a non-smoke and mirrors setup man in their bullpen, and they propensity to make a splash via trade. Miller would instantly be their top setup guy.
 

Sprowl

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Darnell's Son said:
Could a mod or dope split out the Koji talk? Maybe a "To trade or not to trade" thread?
 
I did my best. If your post didn't come over, well then you know what to do now...
 

twibnotes

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InsideTheParker said:
If Koji is truly on the block, I guess Mujica's the closer. Oy vey.
This could be a stroke of genius. Is there a clear cut #1 pick this year?
 

Hoplite

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twibnotes said:
This could be a stroke of genius. Is there a clear cut #1 pick this year?
 
Matuella looks like the favorite. 6'6'', 220 lbs., was throwing 97 mph as a college sophomore with Duke. Plus curve, potential plus slider. Could be a top of the rotation starter for us for a while.
 

Rasputin

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We keep Koji so we can make him a qualifying offer if we have to. That wouldn't guarantee he stays with us, of course, but considering how much teams seem to be overvaluing draft picks these days is the next best thing.
 

ehaz

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twibnotes said:
This could be a stroke of genius. Is there a clear cut #1 pick this year?
 
Dazmon Cameron HS OF has been mentioned.  Mike Cameron's kid but BP says better contact than his dad, similar power and athleticism.
 

Hoplite

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I can't imagine Koji would turn down a qualifying offer and paying $15 million for a closer doesn't seem like the most financially responsible thing to do.
 

Rasputin

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Hoplite said:
I can't imagine Koji would turn down a qualifying offer and paying $15 million for a closer doesn't seem like the most financially responsible thing to do.
Ordinarily I would be in complete agreement but we're talking about a one year deal for the guy who has been as good as humanly possible in the role and we're likely to be paying our shortstop, center fielder, right fielder, third baseman, two starting pitchers and at least one catcher less than fifteen million combined.

Now maybe Lester gets signed to a deal bigger than we're imagining and maybe we bring in some thump that costs a ton but right now we have less than 79 million committed to 2015 and most of the free agents are guys we don't really want back--Drew, Pierzynski, Ross, Gomes, Peavy.

We bring back Koji, Lester, Miller and I'm good as far as our free agents go.
 

Hoplite

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Rasputin said:
Ordinarily I would be in complete agreement but we're talking about a one year deal for the guy who has been as good as humanly possible in the role and we're likely to be paying our shortstop, center fielder, right fielder, third baseman, two starting pitchers and at least one catcher less than fifteen million combined.

Now maybe Lester gets signed to a deal bigger than we're imagining and maybe we bring in some thump that costs a ton but right now we have less than 79 million committed to 2015 and most of the free agents are guys we don't really want back--Drew, Pierzynski, Ross, Gomes, Peavy.

We bring back Koji, Lester, Miller and I'm good as far as our free agents go.
 
We're currently at about $112 in salary for next year if you include rough estimates for arbitration eligible players and medical costs. Lester would probably cost something like $25 million, you're suggesting we pay Koji $15 million. Let's say conservatively that we sign Miller to a deal for $6 million per year. That would leave us with roughly $31 million in yearly salary to address C, LF, 3B/SS, and possibly add a starting pitcher or a bullpen arm. We could potentially go over the luxury tax threshold, but we probably won't. It seems like that would be a little tight.
 

sdiaz1

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Hoplite said:
I can't imagine Koji would turn down a qualifying offer and paying $15 million for a closer doesn't seem like the most financially responsible thing to do.
 
Koji is on pace to be worth roughly 2 FWAR this season in only 70 IP. If we assume that A) that Koji declines rather modestly to 1.5 WAR for 2015 and B) the cost of a win this upcoming of season is 7 million dollars, then one year at 15 million is a modest overpay in terms of $/WAR. However this does not even take into account that 1 .5WAR in 70 IP is much more valuable than 2 WAR in say 180 IP, or the simple benefit of keeping the contract to one year.
 
If we do not trade Koji (and I am unsure as to what he could fetch) I think he is a no brainer candidate to be offered the QO. Sure, by doing so we absolutely kill his market, and therefore leave him in a place where he either signs with us with what is at most a modest overpay*, or he retires.
 
*Assuming that he stays healthy and that he regresses slightly, but does not fall off a cliff.
 

alwyn96

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
 
 

They have $78.6M in commitments, including the last year of money to the Dodgers. 
 
Medical costs are about $12M, so $90.6M. 
 
Their arg eligible guys are: Carp, Harerra, Tazawa, Nava, Doubront and De La Rosa. I think $22M for those 6 guys may be a tad aggressive, no? 
 

 
 
That $78M is committed to only 6 players, though. Baseball reference estimates around $13M for the arb guys, with another $7M for the various pre-arbs on the 40 man. With medicals or whatever, that probably gets you to around $110-115 or so? 
 

mfried

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Corsi said:
Badenhop, Breslow, Mujica might have value and I wouldn't mind seeing them go - but Koji and Miller are really good and must be kept regardless.
 

bosockboy

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Koji for Pederson...only deal that makes it worth it.  6 years of Pederson is worth more than Koji's age 40-41 seasons, regardless of how good he's been.  If not Pederson or similar prospect, keep him.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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As much as I love Koji, I don't think he's worth Pederson.  They aren't getting his age 40-41 season in trading for him.  They get the rest of 2013 2014.  Plus, they already have Kenley Jansen.  Sure, his ERA doesn't look great, but his FIP and xFIP are both outstanding.  The Dodgers are probably far more interested in sending lesser prospects for Miller or Badenhop.  If you can get Joc Pedereson, you jump at that deal before the Dodgers can rethink it.  I just don't see it happening.
 
Maybe as part of a larger deal, but I doubt they have much interest in talking about Pederson in the first place.  Moving Kemp or Ethier are far better long term moves and Pederson might be better than one or both right now.  I'd love to see the Sox get a hold of him.  I'm just not seeing a realistic path to that end, though.
 
Edit: Whoops.
 

alwyn96

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bosockboy said:
Koji for Pederson...only deal that makes it worth it.  6 years of Pederson is worth more than Koji's age 40-41 seasons, regardless of how good he's been.  If not Pederson or similar prospect, keep him.
 
What is keeping Koji through the end of 2014 worth, exactly? I love Koji with all my heart, but if the Red Sox aren't going to resign him, then anything Koji could fetch in trade what would help even a little in 2015 seems like it would be worthwhile. Pederson is BA's #18 prospect. That's not someone who you should probably move for even the most lovable, insanely good 3-month rental. There's a lot of room for someone less valuable than Pederson who could make an important contribution to the 2015+ Red Sox.