Koji

[Papo The Snow Tiger]

In a short amount of time Koji Uehara has become one of my favorite Red Sox ever. He's one the guys who'll never have to worry about buying a drink if he's ever in the same bar as me. That being said, what do SOSH'ers think the future holds for my favorite native of Osaka Japan? Are his recent struggles simply due to a slump, is he getting a little tired, or is father time starting to lightly tap on his right arm. I'm hoping he gets at least a QO from the team after the season.

 

[mfried]

In a short amount of time Koji Uehara has become one of my favorite Red Sox ever. He's one the guys who'll never have to worry about buying a drink if he's ever in the same bar as me. That being said, what do SOSH'ers think the future holds for my favorite native of Osaka Japan? Are his recent struggles simply due to a slump, is he getting a little tired, or is father time starting to lightly tap on his right arm. I'm hoping he gets at least a QO from the team after the season.

Perhaps it's wishful thinking - but I say the recent labors signifying a slight slump and slight fatigue.  I don't think that there is a basic problem.

 

[mabrowndog]

Copying a couple of posts (and my response) from the Second Guesser's Club thread:
 

Wow. Glad I was watching a movie instead of that nut punch.

Two years of karma equalizing in one night? Or, when 40 year ok relievers lose it, the lose it really really quickly.

Toward the end of the inning, the M's were getting RBI hits on bloopers. It was reminiscent of Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS.

 
Exactly. It's gotten to the point where if Koji allows any ball-in-play contact at all, instead of magically whiffing every hitter he faces, all the panic buttons of RSN get pressed simultaneously.
 
Clearly he hasn't been as sharp in his last three outings as he's been all season, and the HR pitch that Castro crushed is still fresh in everyone's mind. But I'm not about to declare him instantly-over-the-cliff, Eric Gagne style.
 
Yes, advancing age is slowly and inevitably creeping up on him, but his August numbers prior to the 16th vs the Astros were 8 IP, 5 singles, 1 double, 0 BB and 6 K against 30 batters for a .207/.233/.241/.475 line. I'll chalk his latest issues up to a couple of mistake pitches, batted-ball randomness, and some late-season fatigue. Hopefully Farrell downshifts a bit on his usage over the final 5 weeks. I'd rather see some more of the 9th-inning work go to Mujica or the call-ups (Hembree, Wilson).

 

[touchstone033]

He's a 40-year-old reliever with a history of arm trouble. What would be surprising after pitching 85+ high-stress innings in 2013 is that he didn't have arm fatigue and pain this year. His velocity is down...and it seemed his last appearance he had uncharacteristic difficulty throwing strikes. Short sample size and all that, but could this be a sign he's throwing with pain?
 
He's arb-eligible at the end of the season -- if he ends poorly or with an injury, or even with the dreaded "dead arm," how does it affect his status with the Red Sox next year?

 

[mabrowndog]

He's arb-eligible at the end of the season

 
Holy shit. Thank you for pointing this out, because I'd forgotten all about it -- as did countless others. I had just assumed that at his age he'd be a free agent at year's end, and all the debates in this forum and in the media over "will the Sox extend Koji a qualifying offer?" further served to eclipse my synapses.
 
Their decision not to trade him at the deadline makes a thousand times more sense now. And unless his injury issues are of a serious nature, I think they'd offer him arb in a heartbeat.

 

[soxhop411]

 
Holy shit. Thank you for pointing this out, because I'd forgotten all about it -- as did countless others. I had just assumed that at his age he'd be a free agent at year's end, and all the debates in this forum and in the media over "will the Sox extend Koji a qualifying offer?" further served to eclipse my synapses.
 
Their decision not to trade him at the deadline makes a thousand times more sense now. And unless his injury issues are of a serious nature, I think they'd offer him arb in a heartbeat.

He is?

Rotoworld says he is only under contract in 2014

 

[MakMan44]

Yeah, everywhere I'm looking says he's a FA after this year. 

 

[SumnerH]

He had 5 full years of service time coming into this season. I can't see any reason he'd be arb eligible next year. COTS has him on the list of 2015 FAs: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2015/ Bref likewise has him a FA after the season: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ueharko01.shtml#contracts

 

[mabrowndog]

Never mind. I suck.
 
After seeing touchstone's post (he sucks, too) I pulled up B-Ref and saw "3rd-Year Arb Eligible", thinking it referred to the upcoming offseason.
 
But it's clearly referring to this season. As I should have figured.
 
Resume disco.

 

[MakMan44]

Back on topic, does his recent struggles make anyone a little more hesitant to give him a multi year extension?  

 

[ivanvamp]

Back on topic, does his recent struggles make anyone a little more hesitant to give him a multi year extension?  

 
Not for me, but it might bring the price down.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Back on topic, does his recent struggles make anyone a little more hesitant to give him a multi year extension?  

His recent struggles don't, but his age has made me hesitant all along. A 40 year old pitcher shouldn't get more than one year guaranteed at a time.

 

[In my lifetime]

His recent struggles don't, but his age has made me hesitant all along. A 40 year old pitcher shouldn't get more than one year guaranteed at a time.

To me his recent struggles would have eliminated the likelihood of offering him a QO. I just can't see spending over 14 million any more. Certainly I would want him back but at something more like 1/10 or 2/16 or vesting 2/20 good after 25 saves.

 

[JimD]

I think the Sox will be able to get a one-year deal done.  I'll be surprised if there are any seriously competitive two-year offers for a 40-year-old closer from other teams. 

 

[mabrowndog]

To me his recent struggles would have eliminated the likelihood of offering him a QO. I just can't see spending over 14 million any more. Certainly I would want him back but at something more like 1/10 or 2/16 or vesting 2/20 good after 25 saves.

 
Contract incentives, including vesting options, cannot be based on achievement-oriented stipulations & stats. They can only be based on service time and/or utilization (games played, games started, days on active roster, etc.)

 

[Toe Nash]

 
Contract incentives, including vesting options, cannot be based on achievement-oriented stipulations & stats. They can only be based on service time and/or utilization (games played, games started, days on active roster, etc.)

They can be based on games finished, right? That would be a way to get at the same thing. 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Back on topic, does his recent struggles make anyone a little more hesitant to give him a multi year extension?  

 
Yes, they does indeed. :c070:
 
I agree with Red(s)Hawks. You just don't go long with a reliever his age. If I'm Ben, I would hesitate to offer more than one year even if he were showing no signs of slippage whatsoever; as it is, it should be out of the question. If he recovers and finishes the year more or less solidly, I offer him 1 year at 12 million or thereabouts, and if it's not enough, bid him Godspeed and thanks for all the fish. I don't make him a qualifying offer because he'll probably take it, and I really don't want him to take it, because he's only worth that much if he can repeat 2013, and he's probably not gonna do that even if he's healthy and effective. And if he's foolish enough not to take it, he's going to make Drew's 2014 market look like the 2000s housing bubble. So the QO is either a dumb move or a dick move, depending on his response.

 

[MakMan44]

If you're willing to offer $12 million on a 1 year deal, why is the extra 3 million that the QO probably entails your sticking point?

 

[mabrowndog]

They can be based on games finished, right? That would be a way to get at the same thing. 

 
Yup, that'd work.
 
I should also clarify that award-based incentives (All-Star Game selection, RoTY, MVP, Cy Young, Gold Glove, etc.) are allowed. It's just that teams can't contractually predicate a player's income on ERA, saves, HR, RBI, pitching wins, etc.

 

[Reverend]

 
I should also clarify that award-based incentives (All-Star Game selection, RoTY, MVP, Cy Young, Gold Glove, etc.) are allowed. It's just that teams can't contractually predicate a player's income on ERA, saves, HR, RBI, pitching wins, etc.

 
Or, most famously, World Championships.

 

[JimD]

He's toast.  Expanded rosters cannot come fast enough.

 

[touchstone033]

Never mind. I suck.
 
After seeing touchstone's post (he sucks, too) I pulled up B-Ref and saw "3rd-Year Arb Eligible", thinking it referred to the upcoming offseason.
 
But it's clearly referring to this season. As I should have figured.
 
Resume disco.

 
Yup. 

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

He's toast.  Expanded rosters cannot come fast enough.

If even Melky was playing leftfield last night instead of Cespedes, it's high-five city. Maybe even if Pedey lets WMB take that grounder going toward the 2B bag to get the double play that Bautista cleaned Holt out on.

Giving up a long fly to Encarcion is hardly a black mark.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

If even Melky was playing leftfield last night instead of Cespedes, it's high-five city. Maybe even if Pedey lets WMB take that grounder going toward the 2B bag to get the double play that Bautista cleaned Holt out on.

Giving up a long fly to Encarcion is hardly a black mark.

 
The larger point is that his pitches are flat, his location's off and his splitter has zero bite. It's not about asking him to be perfect, but that his arm appears deader than Abe Lincoln at this point. And when you throw 88 and rely on late nasty movement to be effective, having a dead arm that prevents pitch movement is absolutely fatal to his effectiveness.
 
That hit to Encarnacion was a moon shot. He's damn lucky it didn't leave the park. He needs to be sat for a long time, perhaps the rest of the season, because he's now completely ineffective.

 

[bankshot1]

Koji's arm is about to fall-off. He should sit for at least a week. Who cares who closes now? Then if he feels ok, let him pitch maybe 1 or 2 innings a week to end the season.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Koji's arm is about to fall-off. He should sit for at least a week. Who cares who closes now? Then if he feels ok, let him pitch maybe 1 or 2 innings a week to end the season.

Seems like a perfect opportunity to see if Workman can turn into an effective closer.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Seems like a perfect opportunity to see if Workman can turn into an effective closer.

I find it baffling why people think Workman can be a closer. His stuff does not strike me as something that fits a Closer Profile - mediocre fastball , decent offspeed pitches but nothing of the "Wipeout" variety.

More likely a 5th starter or middle reliever in my mind.

 

[jimv]

He's a 40-year-old reliever with a history of arm trouble. What would be surprising after pitching 85+ high-stress innings in 2013 is that he didn't have arm fatigue and pain this year. His velocity is down...and it seemed his last appearance he had uncharacteristic difficulty throwing strikes. Short sample size and all that, but could this be a sign he's throwing with pain?
 
He's arb-eligible at the end of the season -- if he ends poorly or with an injury, or even with the dreaded "dead arm," how does it affect his status with the Red Sox next year?

 
I think that's an important point that should be re-emphasized. Foulke essentially ended his career during the 2004 playoff run, that Koji made it to August before running out of gas this season is actually impressive. Shut the guy down, start getting him ready for 2015

 

[Average Reds]

 
I think that's an important point that should be re-emphasized. Foulke essentially ended his career during the 2004 playoff run, that Koji made it to August before running out of gas this season is actually impressive. Shut the guy down, start getting him ready for 2015

 
Teams don't save players so they can be effective in the future unless they have a vested interest in that future.
 
It's still common sense not to abuse Koji, but the Sox and Koji's agent may have some awkward conversations along the way.

 

[OttoC]

[tablegrid= Uehara's 2014 numbers broken down by days of rest ]DR IP H R ER BB SO AB 2B HR HBP ERA BF Pit IR IS K% Ks% Kl% GB% FB% LD% PU% AVG OBP SLG OPS 99 1.0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0.00 5 18 0 0 77.8% 14.3% 14.3% 75.0% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% .200 .200 .200 .400 0 18.0 10 5 5 2 23 62 0 4 1 2.50 65 263 0 0 70.7% 28.0% 24.2% 23.3% 41.7% 21.7% 13.3% .161 .200 .355 .555 1 19.0 15 3 3 3 20 66 3 2 0 1.42 72 267 2 1 71.9% 26.0% 22.4% 28.4% 44.8% 19.4% 7.5% .227 .257 .364 .621 2 13.0 15 7 7 3 16 53 4 1 0 4.85 57 207 8 4 68.1% 29.8% 21.3% 24.0% 52.0% 20.0% 4.0% .283 .321 .415 .737 3 5.0 1 0 0 0 9 16 0 0 0 0.00 16 65 0 0 73.8% 33.3% 18.8% 33.3% 44.4% 11.1% 11.1% .063 .063 .063 .125 4                                                     5 1.0 1 0 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 0.00 4 10 0 0 70.0% 28.6% 14.3% 0.0% 60.0% 20.0% 20.0% .250 .250 .500 .750 6 1.0 1 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0.00 4 19 0 0 78.9% 13.3% 13.3% 25.0% 50.0% 0.0% 25.0% .250 .250 .250 .500 7 2.0 2 0 0 0 2 8 1 0 0 0.00 8 29 0 0 72.4% 14.3% 23.8% 20.0% 40.0% 30.0% 10.0% .250 .250 .375 .625 [/tablegrid] 
 
As can be seen, Uehara's numbers are at their worst when he pitches on two days rest; however, four of his last five outings have been on two days rest so that has aided in pushing them out. (Ks% and Kl% are strikes swinging and looking...data from bb-ref Game Logs)

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

As can be seen, Uehara's numbers are at their worst when he pitches on two days rest...

 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dw9qqvm-LT8

 

[Plympton91]

Man, that hot streak by Bonafacio was that long ago? I am old.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

99 days rest sounds about right.  Let's see if Wilson or Layne can close at the major league level.

 

[InsideTheParker]

I agree that Koji should be shut down unless after a prolonged period of rest he wants to get back in the game. The funny thing is, when the Sox got him, Farrell made the point that he mustn't be overworked, then two "closers" going down led to his being used like a rented mule. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I agree that Koji should be shut down unless after a prolonged period of rest he wants to get back in the game. The funny thing is, when the Sox got him, Farrell made the point that he mustn't be overworked, then two "closers" going down led to his being used like a rented mule. 

 
Define "used like a rented mule." There are 20 relievers in baseball this year with more innings than Koji. He led the majors last year, but they've eased up on him considerably this year. Maybe the innings total from last year is what's wearing on him this year, though.

 

[InsideTheParker]

 
Define "used like a rented mule." There are 20 relievers in baseball this year with more innings than Koji. He led the majors last year, but they've eased up on him considerably this year. Maybe the innings total from last year is what's wearing on him this year, though.

Yes, I was referring especially to last year's usage and trying to contrast the usage with what I expected from what Farrell said at the time they acquired him. Isn't that what I said?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I find it baffling why people think Workman can be a closer. His stuff does not strike me as something that fits a Closer Profile - mediocre fastball , decent offspeed pitches but nothing of the "Wipeout" variety.

More likely a 5th starter or middle reliever in my mind.

What about Koji or Foulke struck anyone about fitting the Closer Profile?  He seems very effective at least once through the order and could probably dial up a few extram mph's on his fastball if using it for 12-18 pitches per showing

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

What about Koji or Foulke struck anyone about fitting the Closer Profile?  He seems very effective at least once through the order and could probably dial up a few extram mph's on his fastball if using it for 12-18 pitches per showing

You wouldn't call Koji's splitter or Foulke's Changeup wipeout pitches?

 

[OttoC]

 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dw9qqvm-LT8

 
Yes, it was a small sample size but so were the numbers for all the other days of rest and one stuck out. However, would it not have been a better refutation of my post to expand the sample size to prove me wrong than posting a small sample size song?
 
And for what it is worth, here is a reduced breakdown for Uehara's numbers by days of rest from the 2013 season (I didn't feel like doing the entire presentation that I did for 2014):
 
[tablegrid= Uehara's performance by days of rest, 2013 ]DR Gm IP ERA AVG OBP SLG OPS 99 0 1.0 0.00 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 15 14.0 0.00 .125 .176 .167 .343 1 29 30.7 0.88 .133 .142 .229 .370 2 12 12.3 2.92 .143 .234 .310 .544 3 9 10.0 0.90 .147 .143 .294 .437 4 3 4.3 2.08 .071 .071 .286 .357 5 2 2.0 0.00 .143 .250 .143 .393 [/tablegrid] 
 
Gee, the ERA, OBP (except for the 2 inning sample size on 5 days rest), SLG, and OPS are all higher when he pitched on two days rest. Do you have a song for slightly larger small sample sizes?
 
Of course, this might all be a matter of coincidence but I find it interesting.

 

[moondog80]

See you next year (maybe).

 

[jsinger121]

Should have traded him at the trade deadline in July.

 

[soxhop411]

Should have traded him at the trade deadline in July.

How many of us thought he would fall off a cliff in the second half? So it's kind of hard to blame them.

 

[Van Everyman]

Well, unless they were planning in re-signing him.

 

[moondog80]

He's a 39 year old closer, soon to be a free agent, on one of the worst teams in the league . There was absolutely no reason to keep him around, and you don't need to be Bill James to realize that. I imagine there was some pressure to keep a few popular players from last years team around, or maybe they just didn't get any offers, or Koji didn't want to go anywhere (IIRC he turned down a late season deal to the sox years ago) but keeping him didn't serve any real purpose.

They kept him to keep him for next year (give him the QO). Maybe the chances of him coming back have slipped, but that was the thinking.

 

[JimD]

He's a 39 year old closer, soon to be a free agent, on one of the worst teams in the league . There was absolutely no reason to keep him around, and you don't need to be Bill James to realize that. I imagine there was some pressure to keep a few popular players from last years team around, or maybe they just didn't get any offers, or Koji didn't want to go anywhere (IIRC he turned down a late season deal to the sox years ago) but keeping him didn't serve any real purpose.

 
I suspect you just hit upon the two primary reasons he wasn't dealt - they didn't get any offers (or offers that were good enough), coupled with the desire to keep a fan favorite around.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Also, if you do want to re-sign him, do you really want him pitching in perhaps 3 rounds of playoffs where you know the team is going to ride him hard?  I think they wanted to re-sign him and not let another team burn him out in October, they knew his arm couldn't handle it.  At least he'll come back a lot cheaper now and probably just on a 1-year deal.  

 

[soxhop411]

“@PeteAbe: Uehara spoke only briefly to the Japanese writers. "This is my fault. Everything was my fault," he said.”


:-(

 

[Van Everyman]

“@PeteAbe: Uehara spoke only briefly to the Japanese writers. "This is my fault. Everything was my fault," he said.”


:-(

Entirely possible he commits seppuku before we ever see him on the mound again.

 

[patinorange]

They kept him to keep him for next year (give him the QO). Maybe the chances of him coming back have slipped, but that was the thinking.

Yes. And I think it was sound thinking. He was insanely good the first half of this year. Not crazy unhittable godlike 2013 good. But still great. No one dazzled them at the deadline and why not start 2015 with the closer position settled?

Why they don't rest him? That's another story.

 

[soxhop411]

“@GordonEdes: Koji, still in uniform, summoned Japanese reporters, said [translated]: "I'm responsible for everything, it's my fault.''”

I
https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/507722463728664576

https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/507722463728664576

link to tweet

I can never get mad at him after last year.