Let's get crazy (risky acquisitions and offseason plans)

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Where do you all rank the current Sox kids in terms of long-term viability?

As a Yankee fan who watched maybe 25 Sox games last year I would rank them like this. Am I far off?

1) Devers - Needs to work on defense and continue to grow as a hitter. Most likely to stick in the middle of the order at 1b.
2) Betts - Has already proven himself as a dominant outfielder who can swing the bat.
3) Benintendi - Ceiling will only be limited by his ability to hit lefties. It drove me crazy watching a young kid sit against lefties for the first 3 months of his career. They need him long-term and to remove those repetitions seemed very counter-productive to his growth as a hitter.
4) JBJ - Pretty vanilla player
5) Xander - Looked the most lost in the box and most likely to struggle to return to being a productive middle of the order bat.
Betts, Ben10, Devers, Xander, JBJ.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Where do you all rank the current Sox kids in terms of long-term viability?

As a Yankee fan who watched maybe 25 Sox games last year I would rank them like this. Am I far off?

1) Devers - Needs to work on defense and continue to grow as a hitter. Most likely to stick in the middle of the order at 1b.
2) Betts - Has already proven himself as a dominant outfielder who can swing the bat.
3) Benintendi - Ceiling will only be limited by his ability to hit lefties. It drove me crazy watching a young kid sit against lefties for the first 3 months of his career. They need him long-term and to remove those repetitions seemed very counter-productive to his growth as a hitter.
4) JBJ - Pretty vanilla player
5) Xander - Looked the most lost in the box and most likely to struggle to return to being a productive middle of the order bat.
I love Devers as much as anyone. I may be unrealistically high on him, but I don't put him ahead of Betts.

1) Betts
2) Devers
3) Benintendi
4) Bogaerts
5) JBJ

Since you phrased it as "long-term viability", control and cost factor into my rankings. JBJ is also the oldest of the bunch.
 

Hawk68

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Feb 29, 2008
172
Massachusetts
Where do you all rank the current Sox kids in terms of long-term viability?

As a Yankee fan who watched maybe 25 Sox games last year I would rank them like this. Am I far off?

1) Devers - Needs to work on defense and continue to grow as a hitter. Most likely to stick in the middle of the order at 1b.
2) Betts - Has already proven himself as a dominant outfielder who can swing the bat.
3) Benintendi - Ceiling will only be limited by his ability to hit lefties. It drove me crazy watching a young kid sit against lefties for the first 3 months of his career. They need him long-term and to remove those repetitions seemed very counter-productive to his growth as a hitter.
4) JBJ - Pretty vanilla player
5) Xander - Looked the most lost in the box and most likely to struggle to return to being a productive middle of the order bat.
XMAN is what his numbers say he is. After 2400+ PA negative DWAR and 100 OPS+.
 

E5 Yaz

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Giancarlo will be traded, if he is, where he wants to go, or he will just stay in Miami and wait for the right place at the right time. After the MVP announcement, he, Ricky Nolasco and AJ Ramoswill make their annual trip to Europe, and while media speculation can list St. Louis, San Francisco and Boston as most likely landing spots, each one of those teams would have to sell him, because there is a strong feeling among those who know Giancarlo that they’re not cities that fascinate him for different reasons.
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-gm-meetings-red-sox-off-season-options-and-more/
 

sean1562

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Lol, it would be hilarious if Stanton tells the Marlins to go to hell, and tries to force a trade to an LA team. Amazing that he could just say "no" to everything and play in Miami, on that contract, until it expires.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Or, the elephant in the room might just that Stanton increasingly sounds willing only to go to the MFYs.

Contender ... check!
Coastal ... check!
Diverse ... check!
Europe ... just as sophisticated!

Too bad the MFYs have their own Defensive-End-sized RF already, at MLB-minimum salary.
 

jon abbey

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Or, the elephant in the room might just that Stanton increasingly sounds willing only to go to the MFYs.

Contender ... check!
Coastal ... check!
Diverse ... check!
Europe ... just as sophisticated!

Too bad the MFYs have their own Defensive-End-sized RF already, at MLB-minimum salary.
I'm having trouble figuring out a realistic scenario where he ends up in NY, the Dodgers seem like a much better fit.
 

sean1562

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Wasn’t there an article a few days ago suggesting Stanton had a strong interest in the angels or dodgers? I would kind of like to see him on he angels. Mike trout deserves to play in the playoffs
 

Cesar Crespo

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Wasn’t there an article a few days ago suggesting Stanton had a strong interest in the angels or dodgers? I would kind of like to see him on he angels. Mike trout deserves to play in the playoffs
Trout, Upton and Stanton is quite the OF.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Wasn’t there an article a few days ago suggesting Stanton had a strong interest in the angels or dodgers? I would kind of like to see him on he angels. Mike trout deserves to play in the playoffs
That would put him back home where he grew up, so that makes sense. The Angels have the same issue the Red Sox do... they have a weak farm to pull chips from. But if they are willing to part with Jo Adell and eat the entire contract, that could work.

I'd also love to see that outfield for a couple of years.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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That's correct ... However, would it not be great to see the two of them in Boston
Okay, let's just get this out of the way so we can all climax and get on with our lives (I'm assuming JBJ gets moved here because the lineup is a little sexier and it's far less likely they'd find a taker for Hanley).

Betts, Benintendi, Stanton, Martinez, Hanley, Devers, Bogaerts, Pedroia, Vazquez
 

MikeM

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He has all the leverage...as long as the place he wants to go will take on the money.
He no doubt has some leverage, but Stanton is also a guy who already went out of his way to express a desire to get out. If he gets presented a decent one I don't think he'd take it to a game of chicken.

Plus I'm guessing everybody there is kind of stuck waiting to see where JD Martinez goes anyway, and what legitimate offers come out of the still interested (10 years instead of 6-7 can be a big difference in terms of how far they are willing to reach) runners up after-the-fact.
 

paulb0t

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Is it safe to cross Stanton off the list? Between Miami's rumored asking price ('shockingly high') and today's Herald report that he likely won't accept a trade to Boston (or St. Louis, for that matter), this bird appears cooked.
 

MikeM

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Is it safe to cross Stanton off the list? Between Miami's rumored asking price ('shockingly high') and today's Herald report that he likely won't accept a trade to Boston (or St. Louis, for that matter), this bird appears cooked.
I honestly think it's too early to predict how anything plays out on the Stanton front, given both Miami and Stanton himself seem to have their unrealistic expectations going in and which probably end up having to be re-adjusted latter to achieve the final outcome both want to happen there.

Currently guessing SF ends up being the team that wins the JD Martinez sweepstakes, which would obviously take them out of the running. Leaving Philly and...both parties hoping maybe the Yankees or the Dodgers jump in I guess? Not exactly a long list of slam dunk'ish type stuff waiting to happen imo.
 

NDame616

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Is it safe to cross Stanton off the list? Between Miami's rumored asking price ('shockingly high') and today's Herald report that he likely won't accept a trade to Boston (or St. Louis, for that matter), this bird appears cooked.
No it isn't. Right now we are in the height of "everyone is lying to you about everything" part of the offseason

Of course their asking price is "shockingly high". It's a trade negotiation. Are they supposed to start off with "give us a 17-year-old lottery ticket prospect and you have a deal"?
 

E5 Yaz

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No it isn't. Right now we are in the height of "everyone is lying to you about everything" part of the offseason

Of course their asking price is "shockingly high". It's a trade negotiation. Are they supposed to start off with "give us a 17-year-old lottery ticket prospect and you have a deal"?
I think the point is that Stanton is sending signals that he won't waive the no-trade in a deal to Boston
 

BoSoxFink

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I think the point is that Stanton is sending signals that he won't waive the no-trade in a deal to Boston
It cites a source saying that, but honestly we can’t believe anything in regards to this until he says it himself I think. It’s all nonsense until something actually happens.
 

grimshaw

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I would think that leak would come from Stanton. It's not in the Marlins best interest to narrow their list of suitors.
 

BoSoxFink

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I would think that leak would come from Stanton. It's not in the Marlins best interest to narrow their list of suitors.
Yea it’s quite possible, I just try not to believe anything you hear until it is straight from the source. If I recall Stanton went on Jimmy Kimmel like a month ago or so and said he liked Boston, so who knows.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Yea it’s quite possible, I just try not to believe anything you hear until it is straight from the source. If I recall Stanton went on Jimmy Kimmel like a month ago or so and said he liked Boston, so who knows.
It might just be that those are the two teams (Boston and St. Louis) who have shown the most willingness to give up value so far, and this is mean to pressure teams into picking up that option.
 

sean1562

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He doesnt have an option, he has an opt-out. He can go wherever he wants, the Marlins arent going to pay him over the course of that deal and everyone knows it. If he wants to go to an LA team, he can say "trade me to an LA team or I will just be an albatross on this small market team for the next ten years".
 

BoSox Rule

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He doesnt have an option, he has an opt-out. He can go wherever he wants, the Marlins arent going to pay him over the course of that deal and everyone knows it. If he wants to go to an LA team, he can say "trade me to an LA team or I will just be an albatross on this small market team for the next ten years".
He has an option at 25 million for 2028 or a 10 million buyout, and an opt out as well.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I don't doubt that Stanton has a preference for SoCal specifically, or to California generally. So if either LA team are serious bidders, then they probably have a leg up. And SF may also have an advantage, at least over Boston or St. Louis. The question is: what happens if neither LA is really interested, or won't make what Miami considers to be a sufficient offer, in terms of players and assumption of the contract? Will Stanton be flexible enough to consider other destinations? Or is it LA or bust?
 

mfried

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I think the point is that Stanton is sending signals that he won't waive the no-trade in a deal to Boston
It isn't necessary for homers to be 475 ft. or longer. Roger Maris hit 61, and I estimate the average length to have been 360. We don't need Stanton.
 

bankshot1

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Isn't the "I won't play in (fill-in city of your choice) just a bargaining ploy to get a contract sweetner?

And to what extent does Stanton's right to opt-out after 2020 (making $26M in '20) to get "Harper $40M" type dough, impact trade value?
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Stanton's opt-out decision will be very interesting given how backloaded his current deal is. He'd be walking away from a ton of money at age 31: 7 yrs/$218m (including a $10M buyout). Teams aren't going to give him Harper Money for 2021 and onward just because he hit 59 HRs in 2017. He'll have to stay relatively healthy and similarly productive.

If I'm acquiring him, I'm probably willing to take the risk that he opts out, because I'm at least getting 3 prime years from him. I'd have to also be willing to accept the potential full $218M cost. That really does limit the number of likely interested teams to the handful of ones already listed above.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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If I'm acquiring him, I'm probably willing to take the risk that he opts out, because I'm at least getting 3 prime years from him. I'd have to also be willing to accept the potential full $218M cost. That really does limit the number of likely interested teams to the handful of ones already listed above.
I'm not interested in sparking the opt-out debate again, but in this particular instance with the window as limited as it is, Stanton opting out would probably not be something the Boston front office would mind given the likely heavy and long rebuild they'd be just kicking off.

Although, if he could be traded for even a few Michael Chavis level prospects, they would probably prefer that.
 

mlthomaas

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Oct 31, 2013
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Plan A: Sign JD for $160ish money. Anyone expect him to actually get $200M? If so, see plan B.
Sign/extend Ohtani for $130M. That’s essentially Stanton money, and you may have upgraded the offense substantially (two bats) as well as get a fantastic young pitcher. All without trading a prospect or losing a pick.
Plan B: Trade for Stanton. Lose a few kids, maybe have to trade a JBJ or Xander to cover the org’s deficiency in prospects and/or trade Michael Chavis who will be working in the spring at 2B, per Gammons. This route would require more moves and be more complicated.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Is this a possibility? All I've seen is that they can pay the posting fee and a (severely limited) signing bonus, but salary is governed by the CBA. Obviously extensions are possible at some point but to do this immediately as a way to circumvent the bonus limits would almost certainly draw fire from Manfred.

It is not. I guess it's possible Otani sacrifices about 3 mil to sign with the team he wants. I'm not sure how much he has made to date in Japan so I'm not sure how important the money is to him.
 

mlthomaas

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Oct 31, 2013
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Is this a possibility? All I've seen is that they can pay the posting fee and a (severely limited) signing bonus, but salary is governed by the CBA. Obviously extensions are possible at some point but to do this immediately as a way to circumvent the bonus limits would almost certainly draw fire from Manfred.
The bid will cost $20M. I think it’s near a lock that whatever team signs him will extend him, maybe in April to avoid the luxury tax hit like the Sox did with the Adrian Gonzalez extension. Manfred will hate it but he can’t penalize a team for taking advantage of the CBA loophole and locking up a player like that.

The tweet addresses the bonus issue, which isn’t really an issue. Think it confirms Ohtani will be getting paid regardless of the bonus. As for the amount of the contract, that’s up for debate. In the $100M-$110M range is more than fair for 7 years of control. I imagine the team will probably end up getting an additional eighth year option.

 

simplicio

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He's made a few million, so he's not exactly hurting.

But those 100-130 million figures you guys are throwing around are some Lester-grade lowballs. Everything I've heard is if he waited a couple years he'd be coming over as a 200-300 million free agent.
 

chrisfont9

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The bid will cost $20M. I think it’s near a lock that whatever team signs him will extend him, maybe in April to avoid the luxury tax hit like the Sox did with the Adrian Gonzalez extension. Manfred will hate it but he can’t penalize a team for taking advantage of the CBA loophole and locking up a player like that.

The tweet addresses the bonus issue, which isn’t really an issue. Think it confirms Ohtani will be getting paid regardless of the bonus. As for the amount of the contract, that’s up for debate. In the $100M-$110M range is more than fair for 7 years of control. I imagine the team will probably end up getting an additional eighth year option.

Well if he signs and they do an extension some time later, then MLB could inquire about whether they had a wink & nod deal about it, but if not then I don't see the problem. Something to be careful with though. And "Most GMs think..." sounds like pure speculation. It's reasonable to think that the foregone $2-3 mil is no biggie compared to other factors and that Japanese players may not act exactly like an American would. But the only piece of evidence that gives me hope is the part where the team established an early relationship with Otani. I'm fairly certain that's one factor in their favor.
 

mlthomaas

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Oct 31, 2013
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He's made a few million, so he's not exactly hurting.

But those 100-130 million figures you guys are throwing around are some Lester-grade lowballs. Everything I've heard is if he waited a couple years he'd be coming over as a 200-300 million free agent.
That’s why they’re doing it, because he chose to come over sooner. He either a) goes back to Japan after failed negotiations b) signs a reasonable extension ~ $100M plus the fee or c) signs minor league deal but doesn’t sign an extension (makes the league minimum and then goes through arbitration). The extension is a good deal for both sides if he’s being genuine about his interest in coming over.
 

mlthomaas

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Oct 31, 2013
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Well if he signs and they do an extension some time later, then MLB could inquire about whether they had a wink & nod deal about it, but if not then I don't see the problem. Something to be careful with though. And "Most GMs think..." sounds like pure speculation. It's reasonable to think that the foregone $2-3 mil is no biggie compared to other factors and that Japanese players may not act exactly like an American would. But the only piece of evidence that gives me hope is the part where the team established an early relationship with Otani. I'm fairly certain that's one factor in their favor.
I totally agree, the league should and will investigate any wink and nod type agreements. I imagine that Ohtani signs the extension regardless of what team “wins” the bid, or goes back to Japan.