Pete spoke with Craig and "teased" a quote as part of the story he is writing
View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1747306690263781564
View: https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/1747306690263781564
Let's Lay Off That Throttle
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
That….. that sounds like Breslow slammed on the breaks. I don’t know. Maybe I’m reading too much into that?
But that sounds like a guy who’s just trying to lay a foundation for a wave of guys rather than compete now.
But that sounds like a guy who’s just trying to lay a foundation for a wave of guys rather than compete now.
That's exactly what it sounds like. And it's largely an appropriate path. My issue isn't with not signing Jordan Montgomery to a seven year deal that would likely hurt the team when the next wave is at full power. I'd cringe if they did that. It's with not signing Michael Wacha or Marcus Stroman to short term deals that would help a team that has a very real chance to compete in 2024, and be off the books by the time the club is in true "full throttle".
Of course it does because laying a foundation for a wave of guys is exactly what the organization needs to be doing (and has been trying to do since the Bloom hire). I don't think that's mutually exclusive with competing now though. It sounds like the current marketplace has them thinking that their best path forward is counting on players they have to take a step forward. Devers, Casas, Duran, Grissom, Wong, Abreu, Rafaela, etc...those are all young position players (Wong is the oldest at 27) that can take steps forward in 2024 and make the team better. It's not all about waiting for the farm to produce more.
You know what it sounds like to me? It sounds exactly like what should have been said from the beginning of this process.
Well, I don't think he'll stop trying to do both, but yeah, even I can see your initial interpretation.
It's a hell of a teaser, I can't wait to hear the rest. At the same time, though, if he's pumping the brakes, I think it's probably not on his/their vision, but shit like the "full throttle" debacle. As many have said here, this is probably not the year to do that, if one considers "full throttle" being all in and going for broke. Have I mentioned that I want to stuff Werner's mouth with a bottle of pessimist wine?
Seems noticeable that the word "yes" is never used in his response to the question.
Sure does. Also sounds like the budget he was given for 2024 is on the lean side.
That is a pretty measured quote, not that it isn't wrong long-term. Again, Werner and his "full throttle" is the main gaffe here.
We've also heard they tried to acquire great starters in trade and no one is budging yet - can't do much when the other side is insisting on Mayer/Anthony/Teel (I presume).
We've also heard they tried to acquire great starters in trade and no one is budging yet - can't do much when the other side is insisting on Mayer/Anthony/Teel (I presume).
In the big picture it’s fine, but they aren’t thus far willing to build a 90 win team that can get into October. There’s a middle ground balancing now and the future and they aren’t really close to it.
And they can’t complain when the park is empty in September.
And they can’t complain when the park is empty in September.
I am glad that he mentioned the top 3 prospects by name, that leads me to believe he won't trade them unless he is overwhelmed. He also mentioned a pipeline of arms to draft and develop. This is why they're likely only going for free agents on short deals, as well as seeing what they have in house that they can continue to refine and develop.
My take:
The young position players on the team now (Duran/Abreau/Rafealla) don't have enough value to swing a trade for pitching. If they play well they become valuable to trade.
We aren't signing FA pitchers long term (maybe because they aren't good enough to build a World Series winning team)
If this is your strategy you need at bats for Duran/Abreau/Rafealla. That would suggest NOT signing Turner/Duvall. That is defensible.
Similarly, if you give Houck/Pivetta/Crawford starts they may develop as well - though I would be extending Pivetta at this point.
I am not getting a warm and fuzzy about this approach. I am not convinced there really is enough talent in the pipeline to get there before 2026. Maybe Teel/Mayer/Anthony arrive in 2025 but they are unlikely to be ready to lead a 100 win team.
And what are the odds any of the are 4 WAR players?
The old prosecutor in my doesn't care for what Breslow is saying here - because beyond providing a rationalle for not spending $ it doesn't mean much. In fact beyond saying he isn't going to spend $ it is meaningless.
The young position players on the team now (Duran/Abreau/Rafealla) don't have enough value to swing a trade for pitching. If they play well they become valuable to trade.
We aren't signing FA pitchers long term (maybe because they aren't good enough to build a World Series winning team)
If this is your strategy you need at bats for Duran/Abreau/Rafealla. That would suggest NOT signing Turner/Duvall. That is defensible.
Similarly, if you give Houck/Pivetta/Crawford starts they may develop as well - though I would be extending Pivetta at this point.
I am not getting a warm and fuzzy about this approach. I am not convinced there really is enough talent in the pipeline to get there before 2026. Maybe Teel/Mayer/Anthony arrive in 2025 but they are unlikely to be ready to lead a 100 win team.
And what are the odds any of the are 4 WAR players?
The old prosecutor in my doesn't care for what Breslow is saying here - because beyond providing a rationalle for not spending $ it doesn't mean much. In fact beyond saying he isn't going to spend $ it is meaningless.
Quite frankly the clarity in this message is what so many of us have been longing for.
I don’t know, you can kind of read into this quote whatever you’re looking for.
It’s not like he’s going to say anything that effectively conveys that we’re going to sign a guy to a nine-figure deal in the next two weeks. Playing up the system is the only correct answer there, and it’s also true.
It’s not like he’s going to say anything that effectively conveys that we’re going to sign a guy to a nine-figure deal in the next two weeks. Playing up the system is the only correct answer there, and it’s also true.
Yes. Its honestly the best quote I have seen since 2019. Here is our plan and we are going to really build this thing out. The problem with ownership and Chaim is they never really said things this specific in nature.
I do think if this is the route, not extending Casas would be devasting. Trade Martin, Jansen, Pivetta, for a much AA/AAA starting pitching as possible and or right handed power. Put Rafaela in center. Play Grissom religiously at second.
100% ... they should have communicated that they have a solid core of guys at the MLB and another solid core of 3-4 guys coming up...they need to see what they have and work from this core of good young players and not shoot the wad on guys that don't fit that plan and/or guys on short term contracts.... much better than "full throttle" . This is a great way to build consistency.
Well if that is the plan, it's putting a LOT of pressure on Teel, Mayer, and Anthony to be good and good quick.
I agree, and fully admit that the thought of going full throttle was very enticing, which speaking only for myself, led me to perhaps let my expectations get a little out of hand, even if I didn't take it quite literally. Thanks to those here that convinced me that money just isn't getting us to the promised land this year and that there is still reason to believe the sky may not be falling. I can't stress enough that this kind of PR gaffe simply can't happen again, and not just because it's made my life a living hell around here,
.And remember, there's a longer piece coming. Hopefully it's enlightening.
You're not wrong on that. The odds of one of them being an impact MLB player - let alone all three?
Bloom said stuff like this all the time. The difference was, he saw that they could also spend short term and try to win now without harming the future. It even worked once.
He mentions those guys directly, but its not just those guys. There is A LOT to learn the next 12-24 months at the major league level.
- What is Bello? Can Bailey turn him into a 4 WAR pitcher that leads a staff?
- Is Casas a star? If the defense improves and he really is the guy in the second half. He's a lineup anchor.
- Is the BABIP with Duran a killer? They guy hit the ball very hard - on a line- for 3 months. Is that real? Is he just a flash in the pan with a hot 3 months? Can he actually play center or is he at the corner?
- Can Rafaela hit? At all? Because even if he puts up just a .280/.300/.375 line, he's a very valuable player with his ability to play elite center and above average short.
- Does Kutter have staying power? Being able to count on another cheap productive starter would be enormous for the outlook of this team.
- How real is Abreu's power? The guy hit 24 bombs in 420 at bats last year as a 24 year old between AAA/MLB. Is it legit? Does he really have 30 bomb power potential?
Is the minor league organization better enough than the other teams in the MLB to suggest it can form the basis for a World Series team? It is all well and good to say we should build one, but that isn't the reality currently. Maybe others see it differently. The more I read that statement the more it reads like boilerplate. Do other organizations not say that?
Why do you think Breslow won't do the same? He said a "World Series" team would take that kind of time to build, not a competitive one, and 2021 was hardly a WS team as constructed, just caught lightening in a bottle and featured one of Bloom's best deadline moves and an awesome, unlikely run of fantastic baseball. I see no evidence as of yet that they aren't looking to improve a great deal from his comments.
On the one hand, I agree that it's the most clear and honest message we've gotten in a long time, which is good.
As @moondog80 alluded to (I think) is that it's a better message because you can't compete with just short term deals and dumpster diving on a consistent basis. Rebuilding a rotation year after year is going to be incredibly volatile and generally not work in terms of wins and losses. It's far too easy to have too many things (expectedly) go wrong. As in, if you're always only buying in the "one year" market, there is a REASON those players can't get more than one year.
Generally either a) they're not very good; b) they're always hurt; c) they're coming off several horrible seasons; d) they're very old. That's not exactly a recipe to a winning team.
As to the point of "why it wasn't said at the beginning of the off-season", I do think it's notable to see how Breslow's tone has changed regarding a trade for pitching. I've been saying for a long time that I don't think the farm system is viewed nearly within the game (beyond Anthony, Teel and Mayer) the way it is by Fangraphs or Bleacher Report or "Fantasy baseball site X" mostly because of the lack of advanced starting pitching. I'd bet that Breslow tried (and is trying) like heck to see if he can get any manner of decent cost controlled pitching by offering up Duran, Abreu, Bleis, Yorke, Cespedes, Perales and Gonzalez and those players just aren't worth much in the trade market.
Hopefully he follows through on where he now knows the team is, and we're able to get something interesting (hopefully that pitches) for Jansen, Martin and (if not extended) Pivetta.
@CR67dream to your point, I'd hope it's something like him telling Henry "I'm not going to spend your money just to spend your money and miss the playoffs. Hopefully that means when I see something that I think is worthwhile, you'll be more apt to green light it." No idea if that's what he's doing, but it'd be a logical pitch to anyone that controls the money. Bloom essentially took $230m ish and lit it on fire year in and year out. I can't imagine that would endear him to an owner.
As @moondog80 alluded to (I think) is that it's a better message because you can't compete with just short term deals and dumpster diving on a consistent basis. Rebuilding a rotation year after year is going to be incredibly volatile and generally not work in terms of wins and losses. It's far too easy to have too many things (expectedly) go wrong. As in, if you're always only buying in the "one year" market, there is a REASON those players can't get more than one year.
Generally either a) they're not very good; b) they're always hurt; c) they're coming off several horrible seasons; d) they're very old. That's not exactly a recipe to a winning team.
As to the point of "why it wasn't said at the beginning of the off-season", I do think it's notable to see how Breslow's tone has changed regarding a trade for pitching. I've been saying for a long time that I don't think the farm system is viewed nearly within the game (beyond Anthony, Teel and Mayer) the way it is by Fangraphs or Bleacher Report or "Fantasy baseball site X" mostly because of the lack of advanced starting pitching. I'd bet that Breslow tried (and is trying) like heck to see if he can get any manner of decent cost controlled pitching by offering up Duran, Abreu, Bleis, Yorke, Cespedes, Perales and Gonzalez and those players just aren't worth much in the trade market.
Hopefully he follows through on where he now knows the team is, and we're able to get something interesting (hopefully that pitches) for Jansen, Martin and (if not extended) Pivetta.
@CR67dream to your point, I'd hope it's something like him telling Henry "I'm not going to spend your money just to spend your money and miss the playoffs. Hopefully that means when I see something that I think is worthwhile, you'll be more apt to green light it." No idea if that's what he's doing, but it'd be a logical pitch to anyone that controls the money. Bloom essentially took $230m ish and lit it on fire year in and year out. I can't imagine that would endear him to an owner.
He might. But he's let a lot of sensible, short-term only options go elsewhere and at the moment they are 30 mil under the tax with not a lot left to choose from.
The problem with that is this
'23 Rangers, 90 wins, won the World Series
'23 Diamondbacks won 84 games, won the NLCS
'22 Phillies won 87 games, made the World Series.
'21 Red Sox, made the ALCS
'21 Braves, won the World Series, won 87 games
The playoffs are a crapshoot. I know others disagree with this, but there is no excuse for the Red Sox not to be competitive for a playoff spot, and by definition, if you are in the playoffs you have a shot at the World Series.
Some of those teams were built through free agency pretty quickly.
No way they sign either and I agree that if that was the case all along, not grabbing one of Lugo or Wacha seems like a real mistake.
Given Breslow's comments and what we've seen reported, I'm pretty sure they view 2026 as go time. It's clear they don't want to give any 3 year contracts to fringe type guys like Seth Lugo on the books, even if they could help now. Yes, Giolito's contract *could* extend to 3 years, but the type of contract Giolito got tells me that they have a lot of faith that they can fix him, and then worry about whether they should try to extend him after he opts out. It's even possible that they could flip Giolito at the deadline if he's bounced back and it looks like he'll opt out. They also offered Imanaga only a two year deal. As another poster pointed out, they probably don't want to give a big deal to guys like Montgomery and Snell because the first couple of years will likely be the best years of the contract, and they'd rather spend that kind of FA money when they feel the team is ready to truly compete. With this plan, there is no excuse to not extend Casas and possibly Bello.
Fair, but perhaps he didn't see them as the most sensible way to go.
I hear you, and I'm basically saying that I don't think what he said in that teaser precludes putting together a team that could go on such a run. A "World Series" team is something other than that, I think.
I just don't think they're conceding being competitive based on that blurb. We'll see how I feel when we see the rest.
Would it really alter their plan if they signed Snell or Montgomery in an effort to compete this year? We all get the long-term plan here, but it’s not like they are going through a total rebuild.
I still think we’re a Montgomery away from a playoff team. I’m calling BS on Breslow- I suspect it’s more a signal to Boras to bring his price down. Neither Snell nor Mongomery would benefit long term by doing a one year deal IMO
If they were paying them 25-30 million dollars in 2027 and they were neither good nor in the final year of their deal? Yes.
Those guys aren't coming. And I'm OK with that.
Well, that really depends on how soon you think the Sox should be competitive, doesn’t it?
Has anyone suggested that they’d take a 1 year deal?
The Breslow plan sounds exactly like the Bloom plan. I guess the only difference is to not whiff on the pitching. Fair enough. They sent a signal they’d be cooking the team through free agency which got my hopes up, but I think we are starting on Square 2.
It’s not exciting. It’s not making me want to get an MLB pass so I can watch it every day. But it’s reasonable.
It’s not exciting. It’s not making me want to get an MLB pass so I can watch it every day. But it’s reasonable.
How would you go about developing good, young pitching as Craig eluded to? I’m talking about pitchers that have top of the rotation stuff.
I think this is more like it. It's a smart, honest answer that doesn't promise anything and doesn't give anything away.
The overwhelming likelihood is that Snell and Montgomery want to play in different cities. I'm sure we're in to a degree, but a lot of the stuff we have left to do — trades, likely — is contingent on those guys signing, maybe even directly.
Despite the fact that we're past mid-January, there's still a ton of offseason left, and trade season hasn't even really begun.
All of the reasons Chaim Bloom was said to be fired would be contradicted if our plan was to sit tight until 2026.
IMHO We are a front line pitcher and a right handed bat away from being competitive.
There were short term options to get a pitcher that we have missed on - and that in retrospect may look like a big mistake.
I have said this a lot but, its slow and we are all going in circles. Bloom was bad at 40 man construction and path conviction. I think he clearly had an eye for talent and was extremely prudent but there were some real issues. Here are the pitching WAR ranks under Bloom in the MLB.
- 2020: 30/30
- 2021: 6/30
- 2022: 21/30
- 2023: 20/30
In addition to the pitching woes - he should have either bought or sold at the deadline last year and he did neither. He should have sold more at the '22 deadline and get under the cap and he failed to do so. He should have had any semblance of pitching depth last year and instead we got Kaleb Ort, Kyle Barraclough, Justin Garza, and Taylor Scott starting games.
Not all of them. Some people on here (self included) were saying that Bloom should be fired (and should have been fired a couple times previously) simply for not being very good at his job, we didn't like the choices he made and didn't think he was the right person to lead the Red Sox.
Even if they didn't plan on spending, it's at least feasible to think that FSG fired Bloom because they plain old didn't think he was capable of the job of being the PoBO of the Boston Red Sox. Not spending going into 2024, 2025 or 2026 would in no way contradict that.
I want to see the full convo because this is worse than Full Throttle IMHO.
Let's take a look at the division and the "fringe contender" wording used by Speier a few days ago. This team is worse than last year and if the bottom line" is not opening the purse strings to finish out of the playoffs" well get ready for a long cold spell everyone. The Orioles and Rays both have prospects on prospects for competing and trades. The Yankees have their own issues but they are doing the opposite of punting and trying next year with Soto and Stroman. The Blue Jays have young studs and made the playoffs last year. I don't seem them falling off.
The Red Sox are very bullishly projected for 80 wins next year. It's pretty sad that they bring in a new guy with all the new philosophy and vibes and the actual roster response is a passive " We'll see what happens with the youth" minus some money and attitude ( Sale and Verdugo).
Maybe I'm wrong but the odds of all of the top three panning out by 2025 or having all pieces arrange to get to 80 wins this year are not high. Yet that appears to be the goals.
For the ticket prices Sox fans pay the goal should be 90 plus wins and obviously not finishing or being projected to finish dead last in the division. Shooting for 80 with a "well we're smart and different now" is cheap and there's no other way to spin it.
Let's take a look at the division and the "fringe contender" wording used by Speier a few days ago. This team is worse than last year and if the bottom line" is not opening the purse strings to finish out of the playoffs" well get ready for a long cold spell everyone. The Orioles and Rays both have prospects on prospects for competing and trades. The Yankees have their own issues but they are doing the opposite of punting and trying next year with Soto and Stroman. The Blue Jays have young studs and made the playoffs last year. I don't seem them falling off.
The Red Sox are very bullishly projected for 80 wins next year. It's pretty sad that they bring in a new guy with all the new philosophy and vibes and the actual roster response is a passive " We'll see what happens with the youth" minus some money and attitude ( Sale and Verdugo).
Maybe I'm wrong but the odds of all of the top three panning out by 2025 or having all pieces arrange to get to 80 wins this year are not high. Yet that appears to be the goals.
For the ticket prices Sox fans pay the goal should be 90 plus wins and obviously not finishing or being projected to finish dead last in the division. Shooting for 80 with a "well we're smart and different now" is cheap and there's no other way to spin it.
I think this might be it-- not just Yamammoto, but all pitching has become even more expensive, and young controllable pitching seems to be more prized than ever. Every team wants it, and those that have it seem to have zero interest in letting it go. The Mariners probably could get a lot for a guy like Woo or Miller who might be their #4 and #5 SP, with 2 other young talented arms and a proven vet ahead of both of them, but there haven't been any rumors of them looking to move them, and they have had "constant calls" calls on them.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/analysis-why-mariners-are-unlikely-to-trade-away-bryan-woo-or-bryce-miller/
The landscape has changed immensely from when Theo got to Chicago and said they would develop hitters and acquire pitchers. He developed hitters and acquired pitchers like Lester and Lackey and won a championship, but that was a long time ago. Starting pitchers are going fewer innings but injuries seem at least as common as ever if not more, while teams generally seem to realize that signing pitchers in their 30s to long contracts is a bad idea. YY's youth was a big reason why everyone wanted him.
It's really frustrating that they don't seem to be interested in signing Montgomery. He's about as solid as bet as you are going to get in a free agent starting pitcher. And his likely decline years should be the very years this team has many more low-salaried controllable players in big roles, presumably leaving lots of room under the tax-- that is the actual plan, we are told.
But if we wait say 2 more years to then add a veteran free agent SP, it will just be another guy in his 30s with all kinds of risk, whose likely decline years will happen when those young players start costing more money. I really think they should try to add a fairly reliable veteran rotation building block like Montgomery now, because we will need someone like that for the next 2 to 4 years at least.
But maybe Montgomery wants to go back to the Rangers, and would have to get a ridiculous offer to go elsewhere. Snell has seemed to want to be on the west coast, with a similar caveat that he would take a ridiculous offer to go somewhere else. We don't know, but it really looks like there is very little chance we sign either Montgomery or especially Snell with the QO penalties.
Breslow's statement seems to line up with what Speier wrote a few days ago:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/01/12/sports/red-sox-free-agents-pitchers/
I think at this point it's pretty clear that we won't be adding a big name starting pitcher this offseason.
Well, Ryu and Paxton are both good pitchers when they are healthy. Probably should sign at least one of them and get back on the injured pitcher roulette wheel, because we need another SP and it doesn't make much sense to give up a ton of prospect value for a pitcher who isn't even that good, which is what trades would probably end up being in this market.
I think If we signed Ryu and Turner to one-year deals and they played to their usual level, that could be enough to get the team into the playoff race, while adding absolutely no payroll to the future teams. If we don't even do that much, then I don't even know what to think about that.
Maybe there's more context to this Abraham story and Pete is just pulling out the sexy quote, but it sounds like we're in for the same stuff that we've been watching for three out of the last four seasons. Which is less than optimal if you're interested in watching an entertaining team with more than one star in 2024.
I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that this was how it's going to be next year (and probably 2025) and I guess I'm stuck rooting for the Sox to finish in fourth place rather than last; which is a far cry from how it used to be.
And like Nick Esasky said, this puts a ton of pressure on Mayer, Teel and Anthony, which is just a great look for this franchise. I can only hope that all three of them do not stumble at all because there's enough pressure on them to make the major leagues. Not only that but all three of them have to be good at once (super easy thing to do, you guys) and drag this team out of obscurity. And they all have to be able to pitch, because the issue with the 2020-2024 Boston Red Sox isn't really the offense, it's the fucking pitching.
Awesome. If this is what the Sox are envisioning for the foreseeable future (no trading of prospects for established MLB stars or no signing premium free agents), why did Bloom get the boot? These were his exact talking points.
I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that this was how it's going to be next year (and probably 2025) and I guess I'm stuck rooting for the Sox to finish in fourth place rather than last; which is a far cry from how it used to be.
And like Nick Esasky said, this puts a ton of pressure on Mayer, Teel and Anthony, which is just a great look for this franchise. I can only hope that all three of them do not stumble at all because there's enough pressure on them to make the major leagues. Not only that but all three of them have to be good at once (super easy thing to do, you guys) and drag this team out of obscurity. And they all have to be able to pitch, because the issue with the 2020-2024 Boston Red Sox isn't really the offense, it's the fucking pitching.
Awesome. If this is what the Sox are envisioning for the foreseeable future (no trading of prospects for established MLB stars or no signing premium free agents), why did Bloom get the boot? These were his exact talking points.
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Here is the full article
Here is the full article
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/01/16/sports/craig-breslow-red-sox-interview-globe/
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This is really the crux of the issue.
We all get that Mayer/Teel/Anthony are hopefully the future as of 2026. That's great. But we aren't the Baltimore Orioles. We don't have to limp along and finish last in the AL East for the next 2 seasons because we can't afford to contend until they're ready.
Now, to be fair, they have gone out and signed Story, Yoshida, Jansen, and Giolito.
Still, the Red Sox only have $94M on the books for 2026. The Atlanta Braves, by contrast, have $170M already committed in 2026. Padres are at $136M. Phillies at $125M. Healthy teams with large fanbases and financial resources should be able to afford to sign guys like Snell or Montgomery in 2024 and still have roster flexibility in 2026.
I disagree. Breslow has made targeted acquisitions around needs. Bloom was always around getting the maximum ROI for price regardless of need.