I know a lot of posters are picking gloom and doom. I am optimistic because I like a lot of the young guys, and the defense is going to be much better. I also thought the 2023 Pats were going to be 9-8, so take it for what you will.
Yeah, I think that's the majority position of people who are picking low totals. I may change my own pick at the end of spring training, but I think there's a lot of volatility here.I am another one hoping to be completely wrong with 79 wins.
The pitching factory that Bres and Bailey are implementing can only go so far. At some point, overall talent wins out and the inaction on the FO's part is inexcusable.Yeah, I think that's the majority position of people who are picking low totals. I may change my own pick at the end of spring training, but I think there's a lot of volatility here.
Volatility has been the theme for the past three years, but it's mostly been centered around middle of the road free agents with upside having something left in the tank. (I.e., hoping the Wachas and Strahms of the off-season signings are more prevalent than the Klubers.) But this season we're hoping that there's going to be health and greater effectiveness re: players we've seen before. And it's somehow just harder to be optimistic there. Maybe it's the fallacy of discounting what we know. (God knows Casas was massively underpraised here this off-season.) Maybe it's combined with our own experience with human nature - we know a change in environment can jolt someone into new practices, while new companions might spark different ideas and approaches as we adapt to our new surroundings. So a new pitcher brings hope, while we forget what Crawford and Winckowski did.
That said, I think we should consider that Bailey is going to be working with the pitchers early this year and he has a very different philosophy than Bush. So maybe the environment *is* changing for someone like Houck. . .as much as it is for Giolitto, who apparently had nothing but incredibly positive things to say about the immediate practical tweaks that Breslow and Bailey brought to the table.
Even so, much remains the same, particularly Cora and the hitting coaches. And while I'm not a Cora fan (in part because he's constantly oversold around these parts), he has adapted and changed his managerial tendencies to a degree: https://www.baseball-reference.com/managers/coraal01.shtml#all_manager_tendencies Which I think is a positive sign. He deserves kudos for 2021, and I don't think he's at all to blame for 2022's injury decimation.
2023 is a bit harder for me to characterize. I think that had we played with more urgency, earlier, we might have been set up better to acquire key players (a la 2021) at the trading deadline. Ultimately that's on Bloom, of course, but it's not like we were unambiguously on contenting footing at the time. However, at the end of the day, key players ran out of gas, leading to a September Death Spiral during which the Sox played worse than any other team in baseball (IIRC). While I don't think that's because Cora failed to give them a pep talk (or something silly like that) I think it does call in to question his ability to get the team to push through adversity. Perhaps that's unfair - who knows what the situation on the ground was? But I think it's fair to say Cora can't simply turn on the jets.
It's also weird that so many players tanked. Cora's main strength is supposed to be keeping guys fresh, loose, motivated and ready. You know, full season excellence at the cost of a series here or there where someone has a scheduled day off - regardless of the handness matchups or the standings. And while that is irritating/frustrating for me in the moment, it's hard to argue with it if it works, as it did (arguably) in 2021. I only say arguably because that was also the Covid year of 101 replacements. But when it does not work. . .ugh. Here (in 2023) it seems like it didn't work, but they were out of it by that point anyway, so it's hard to get a bead on it or draw a future-looking inference from it.
My largest concern is that 2024 will feature the same approach under Cora. A slow start followed by some "we're better than this" press conferences, "we need to start winning series" etc. etc.
But it is a contract year for him, and Cora has said he'll be emphasizing defense in spring training. So we'll see if that bears fruit and hopefully we get a hot start like 2021. I think Cora is competent enough to do that. He just needs to pick the right staff, set the right tone, and consciously/ruthlessly harvest some wins rather than well-meaning player-service dipshittery like trying to "show confidence in Jansen as our closer" resulting back to back blown saves of must-have wins. Basically, turn off his big picture "marathon" view and grab a sweep against a vulnerable team when he can, instead of thinking it will all average out. (Because in some ways he does not have 162 games - he only has up to the trading deadline.)
My second largest concern is what's been a persistent failure in internal scouting (the latest being Hernandez at short), defense/fundamentals, and hitting. (The hitting coaches are my least sanguine element of the team, far more so than Cora. We get there eventually with them it seems, but they're like the proverbal battleship - slow to turn.) I hope there's been some shake-up there, because they've missed on so many bit players, call-ups, and internal assignments. I have little knowledge/insight as to that.
As far as the players go, I'm banking on good coin-flips (meaning a good outcome, not that there's an actual even chance between a solid season or grave disappointment) for Devers and Casas. The surrounding cast of Story, Grissom, Duran, Abueu, Yoshida and O'Neill all have considerable upside. Hitting with 3 or 4 of those guys might be enough. (Oh, the hitting coaches!)
Likewise, I'm reasonably hopeful that under Bailey, we get little backsliding and some notable improvements from several of: Giolitto, Pivetta, Bello, Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski, et al. There's talent there in just about every one of them to be a decent ML starter. What I'm hoping for is that we'll be able to *quickly* get people into appropriate long-term roles they can excel in. My reasonable-best outcome is not a rotation headed by a miracle #1 or #2 performance (though fingers remain crossed for Giolitto, Pivetta, and Bello), but for in aggregate, something more like a rotation of 5 "3s." Where we win through depth instead of a top heavy rotation and our scrubs being marginally better than their scrubs.
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Anyway, that's the restrained optimistic best-case scenario view for me. And even so I keep coming in at the upper 80s when I ponder it.
It absolutely can all go to shit though. Some key injuries. Some deckchair staffing. Some farting around with who is and isn't in the rotation. Blowing out the pen early because the starters come up short. Basically, 2023 all over again.
So I don't really think 79 is insanely irrationally pessimistic or anything. Depending on how ST goes, I may join you there in the poll.
That's gonna stake out a whole chunk of territory; good play.I’ll go 58.
Yes. No edits after the first pitch of opening day, though, or you get tossed for breaking the rules.Are we allowed to change our prediction if additions are made before the first regular season game?
70 wins
Tie-Breaker Questions
(Hitting reply and then responding to them is probably the easiest way to log your answers. Any answer that hedges a bet with two possibilities is disqualified, although "none" is always acceptable. fWAR and baseballreference.com's formula for qualifying players will be used unless otherwise noted.)-Team leader in Wins? Crawford-Team leader in Losses? Pivetta-Team leader in Saves? Jansen-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? No one qualifies-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Devers-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Devers-Team leader in OPS? Devers-Team leader in HR? Devers-Team leader for RBI? Devers-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Duran-Team leader in HBP? Story-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Grissom-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Duran-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Pivetta, Crawford, Houck-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? Story-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Fitts-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Mayer-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Fitts-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Mayer-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? Casas-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season. Martin(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.)-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). Criswell-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Whitlock-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Verdugo and Turner are gone, I'll say Casas-Manager on the final day of the season? Cora-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? Zero
At least they won't ruin our summer by making us think there is a chanceWhat a write off of a season.
You've posted twice in this thread without making a prediction.What a write off of a season.
78 would be a Three-peat, which would be so weird that it probably stands a good chance of happening.i just reduced my vote to the bucket below. I wasn't expecting a 20 game winner here, so I am thinking maybe 4 games off of where I was. I was at 82 (my 1/2 full lens) but thinking maybe 78 now (still optimisitic given the news?).
75 is probably to hopeful.You've posted twice in this thread without making a prediction.
How many games do you think they'll win?
75 is probably to hopeful.
70 wins. I highly doubt they make 75. edit: I voted in the poll at 75 when Gio had a working elbow.
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Pick a number. You can change it up to the first pitch.
See edits above. New predicted record 73-89.* EDITED POST GIOLITO NEWS (5th March) New wins total 73.
I do not think they are going to sign Montgomery now, because the price just went way up. The news about a new grip from Bailey & Co. is also a concern - if I’m a young guy and I want to stay healthy, I’m going to think twice about taking their advice, after watching Giolito go down.
Yep, thanks for the encouragement @Rovin Romine!! I have voted, and will come back with a proper post. But based on the team as constructed right now, I am at79 wins which I think is one moreedited down to 73 wins, that’s 5 less than last year - I don't see where the defense is better, the pitching is now actually worse, and the hitters are also not better. Right now it would seem that management is relying on improvement of the players we have rather than adding many new ones. And there has been little added to the bullpen.
New management has taken up right where the old management left off which is to say done a lot of talking, and not much buying. At this point, not sure who I am less optimistic about - Patriots or Red Sox.
I will answer the other questions later. Work (yay) beckons. Edit: lol couldn't resist. I hate my job.
Edit: I will adjust if the Sox miraculously do end up with one of the remaining top FA SP.
-Team leader in Wins? Bello 12
-Team leader in Losses? Pivetta 10
-Team leader in Saves? Jensen 21
-Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Crawford 3.94
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Casas .309
-Team leader for OPB (qualifying)? Casas .371
-Team leader in OPS? Casas .875 (sorry misread question to be about SLG)
-Team leader in HR? Casas 29
-Team leader for RBI? Casas 94
-Team leader in Stolen Bases? Duran (if he stays)
-Team leader in HBP? Devers
-Player who plays the majority of 2B innings this season? Trevor Story
-Player who plays the majority of CF innings this season? Rafaela
-Name the 3 Pitchers who start the greatest number of games this season? Bello, Pivetta, Crawford
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster (26 man), who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the IL? Sale (oops that's last year); Giolito (woop woop I picked this one right lol and we haven’t even started the season yet)
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster (26 man) who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Liam Hendricks (if he is even due back in 2024?)
-Position Player not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Rafaela
-Pitcher not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Not Giolito- Maybe Hendricks
-Position Player not on the 26 man roster at any point last year (2023) who makes the greatest contribution (WAR)? Vaughn Grissom
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no shoves - a true swing)? nobody; Sox are lovers not fighters
-Name a player who has ML playing time for the Sox in 2024 who is traded away during the season. Duran
(counts for 2 points if you name the player first traded by the Sox.)
-Player with greatest number of transfers between Boston/Worcester (note: IL stints count, but only if they play a game for Worcester). no idea yet, but BP pitcher
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? no idea yet
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? no idea yet
-Manager on the final day of the season? Andrew Bailey
-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024? 5 at Fenway over 3.1 innings, after which Sale goes in the IL and we don't see him again in Atlanta in June.
Totally fine of course, but if you change your mind (up or down) just edit your post.I’m sticking at 69. I picked that number factoring in at least one major injury, since they are inevitable.
Go edit your post.I will drop to 84, barring a Monty signing, in which case you can leave me at 86.