I posted Belichick's records against his assistants (not the other way around). McDaniels had that single OT win against the Pats when he was in Denver; so Belichick is now 0-2 against McDaniels.
Let's say BB stays on until he retires. What does that mean for the franchise?
- Thread starter Eddie Jurak
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He should be held accountable for his coaches no matter what method he uses to assemble his staff.
I guess one question we should consider is: What if Patricia actually is learning this year? It may not look like it to us, but let's say he's an F right now. Let's say if he sticks around, he'll become a C-. Still below average, but improved. Then let's say his third year, he could be a B-. Above average. Then let's say by year four, he's actually in the B+ or A- range. He is usually regarded as a very smart football person (even if he has personality traits that make him a poor head coach), and it stands to reason that given time under BB's tutelage, he could learn the job of OC.
Let's just hypothesize that this is what his trajectory would be. Are we willing to let that play out? Or are two more years of C- to B- coaching, costing them precious years of Mac's rookie contract window, unacceptable, even if the final result is that Patricia becomes a really good OC?
(I'm not saying this IS his trajectory, but it's entirely possible.)
The problem with hiring Patricia is it violates basic principles of inference. If we want to know how good a quarterback the Patriots have, we can’t simultaneously figure out how good their OL and offensive coaching staff are. Both of those latter should be held constant, otherwise you end up chasing your own tail blaming all three and not knowing how good any of them are. The time to test Patricia on offense was when Brady was here. The time to figure out if your quarterback is good is when you can trust the rest of the offense. If by some miracle McDaniels and Scar were still here, the Patriots would have a much, much clearer sense of what they had with Mac and his O line. Instead we know that nothing’s working but have no idea who’s to blame (although it’s is looking increasingly likely the answer is “everyone”).
No.
You don't hire a guy in the National Football League and treat it like it's high school ball. Patricia should not be in a position to have to learn on the job. They should have someone who KNEW the job before they were hired. It was such an unforced error to start this season and has left the offense in disarray too often. Everything is regressing because the OC is a guy who doesn't really know what he's doing.
The OL depth on personnel and hiring Matty P are both two moves that were glaringly obvious and ended in disaster. I made the mistake of giving him the benefit of the doubt on the Matty P hiring. This offense is a bottom quarter unit in the NFL. Honestly if he doesn't make a drastic change to the offensive coaching staff I think his time here will be ticking. It will probably be worse in most years too as defenses often regress so they won't always be as good as this year.
If this were any other team, any other coach, and any other owner, the offseason would include such an ultimatum. But as discussed, RK probably doesn't have the stomach for such a confrontation, and Belichick knows that
I am unsure who said that hiring a staff isn’t an important part of a head coach’s job, that a head coach shouldn’t be accountable for his hiring decisions, or that hiring someone without offensive coaching experience to run an offense means there was no one else available. It certainly wasn’t me.
My recollection from when these hirings first occurred was that BB's response to the media about it was something along the lines of "coaching is coaching." It might be as simple as him not believing that specialization on one side of the ball is particularly important, that the entire game is one connected organism, and familiarity/understanding of the BB/Patriot way of doing things, coupled with an allegiance to him is more important than someone with a demonstrated proficiency in the area. Considering that BB has dabbled on the offensive side numerous times throughout his time in NE (learning Chip Kelly's "lightning" no-huddle system, working closely with Brady on weekly game plans), I suspect he really does believe coaching skill is fungible, even at this level.
First, allegiance has nothing to do with nothing. McDaniels has "left" the organization 3 times. Daboll has had 2 stints as an assistant, and was given a recommendation by Belichick. The only departure that irked Belichick was Mangini's, and that was due to the fact that he left for the Jets 1 year after Belichick had named him defensive coordinate to replace Crennel.
Brian Daboll started in New England as a defensive assistant before becoming wide receivers coach. Eric Mangini started as an offensive assistant in Cleveland, switched over to defense under Parcells with the Jets, and most recently was tight ends coach with the 49'ers before becoming their defensive coordinator in 2015. Matt Patricia was assistant OL coach before becoming LB coach. Josh McDaniels started in New England as a defensive assistant. Joe Judge has been a defensive assistant and had added WR coaching responsibilities to his task list in his final year in New England.
The switching between offense and defense among coaching assistants is not entirely limited to Belichick's staff either. That same 49'ers coaching crew noted above had Mick Lombardi as a defensive assistant, before he switched back to offense the following year. The DL coach for the Chiefs started as a running backs coach. Todd Downing, offensive coordinator for the Titans, has had some stints as a defensive assistant.
The above does not mean Patricia is a good coach or that he should have been named offensive coordinator. Just pointing out that pure specialization is not the rule among coaches.
The obvious difference is that low level coaches switching between offense and defense is not that uncommon, but switching coordinators with virtually no experience on the other side of the ball is unprecedented (other than years ago in Philadelphia with Castillo, and that was a disaster). Thus, it might make some sense for Judge but not for Patricia, although he was technically never given the title of OC (how clever). Belichick was not only wrong, but failed to make adjustments in preseason or throughout the season when things were obviously going so poorly. I expect him to bring in a competent OC (and staff) next season, but if he cannot admit and correct the mistake then he should no longer be making decisions for the organization.
I mentioned this in another thread--but I'm still mystified that he didn't make Flores a senior football advisor as he did with Patricia in 2021. The departures over the previous two seasons of Adams, McDaniels, Scar, Fears, and the crew that followed McDaniels to Vegas were more than just a brain and talent drain--they created a deep and broad leadership void that Belichick left himself alone to fill. Whatever their other football merits, Patricia and Judge have proven themselves to be (at least to me) piss-poor leaders in their respective stints as head coaches, while Flores's players both in NE and Miami largely speak of him in glowing terms--to the point that I still find myself wishing that he'll be BB's successor.
And Belichick's practice of having assistants work their way up on both sides of the ball--three counting special teams--looks to have been a successful method until this season. Regardless, it's been increasingly clear since training camp that Patricia and Judge were in over their heads and have failed, abysmally failed . What seems lost on many who've been posting about the Pats, Mac Jones, and this year's comparative train wreck of a season, however, is that Belichick is still the same consummate football obsessive with a maniacal desire to innovate, teach, and win. I'll be shocked and disappointed if there aren't major changes to the offensive and ST coaching staffs this offseason--and would be very surprised if the wheels aren't already in motion. If not, as @SMU_Sox said, the clock on his glorious tenure should be ticking.
And Belichick's practice of having assistants work their way up on both sides of the ball--three counting special teams--looks to have been a successful method until this season. Regardless, it's been increasingly clear since training camp that Patricia and Judge were in over their heads and have failed, abysmally failed . What seems lost on many who've been posting about the Pats, Mac Jones, and this year's comparative train wreck of a season, however, is that Belichick is still the same consummate football obsessive with a maniacal desire to innovate, teach, and win. I'll be shocked and disappointed if there aren't major changes to the offensive and ST coaching staffs this offseason--and would be very surprised if the wheels aren't already in motion. If not, as @SMU_Sox said, the clock on his glorious tenure should be ticking.
Agree that the path taken by Patricia in particular is atypical. Looking at the profiles of the other 31 offensive coordinators in the NFL, and you can see some trends. Nearly all had a fairly long tenure as positional coach, most commonly QB coach and/or passing game coordinator. Others were former TE, WR, and RB coaches. Those that had less experience at those positions had NCAA positions as offensive coordinator.
Judge's path is a lot less unusual, in that some offensive coordinators and QB coaches did indeed coach special teams earlier in their coaching careers. But I do understand those that question why he was named QB coach when dealing with a reasonably highly drafted prospect who the team considered their QB of the future. And looking at these moves in isolation is less useful, as it's clear the overall mix of the offensive coaching talent is a problem.
I'm not convinced we are going to see visible changes in the staff. We may see shuffling of responsibilities and perhaps some additional staff brought on board. Kraft is not going to issue a "fire Patricia" ultimatum to Bill. But I'm sure Kraft is going to ask Belichick what he plans to do differently, and I'd be shocked if Bill's answer is "nothing".
EDIT: I should add that Belichick has made staff changes previously. After the 2009 season, the contract of defensive coordinator Dean Pees was not renewed, and he left to become LB coach for the Ravens. The problem with the 2009 defense was mostly a roster problem; the defense got old and slow and the team suffered from a series of unproductive drafts. And the team did not have a true defensive coordinator in 2010 or 2011; Josh Boyer (secondary) and Matt Patricia (linebackers) split the duties, and 2010 special teams coach Brian Flores moved over to coach the safeties in 2011. Then Patricia was given full DC duties in 2012.
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Uh, OK. Good luck with that. Unless he quits or gets fired, BB will be making the football decisions. I put the odds of him getting fired at <1%. Odds of quitting/retire <5%.
Guessing the Giants situation played a factor in Flores not returning, but hard to be 100% sure.
To me, one of BB's defining traits has been that he's not a rigid "system" guy. He's always pivoted to adapt the team's style to the personnel he has, from year to year and game to game - and if something's not working he scraps it. Age and league trends notwithstanding, he's a smart guy and I don't think he likes losing. I will be shocked if he doesn't revamp the staff after this season.
Yeah, I'm kind of looking forward to seeing how he responds.
The Patricia Judge thing is obvious in hindsight and probably was in real time too. But one of the things that makes Belichick great is that he makes hard choices and quite often, we find ourselves being amazed at the shit that works. For years he bucked the trend of having massive bloated staffs.
If Patricia had worked out, it would have been another example where we kind of all said, "this guy takes chances and they sometimes pay off, what did he see that we didn't see."
Again, I get that it all seems obvious now. And it was. It was a pretty stupid decision and it turns out it worked out exactly as it should have. You take the bitter with the sweet with Belichick. The sweet is pretty good.
One thing he might do is make big changes but ones that aren't visible to us. The little we know about how offensive plays get called is that (1) it seems like a potentially complicated process, (2) matty p seems tobe making the actual final play call, (3) calls are getting in late too often and (4) there are too many formation penalties. BB could entirely change the process they use and the responisbilities each have without changing single coach (i.e. Matty P out at OL, Judge designs the entire scheme, Matty P just game day play caller) and we wouldn't be the wiser.
That’s correct. What’s odd, though, was the decision to switch the offensive philosophy while naming offensive coaches that didn’t have much experience on that side of the ball. One or the other wouldn’t be as shocking. If, with the departure of Josh, the Patriots said we are going to move to a more Kubiak zone blocking scheme because it fits our personnel, that could make sense. But then they didn’t bring in an OC that has coached it. Or, if they said we are sticking with the same Erhardt-Perkins offense and we are bringing in two coaches who have a long history in our franchise and systems to bridge from McDaniels, I could also buy that. What seems strange is changing both.
Does anyone buy into the Curran theory that one reason there are uncharacteristic mistakes is that the team doesn't believe that the coaching staff knows what it's doing? That the whole organization is screwed up because why should players be accountable when BB has clearly screwed the pooch here. Did Meyers try to do too much because what are the odds that the offense would win in overtime? I look at the special teams and they have been a shit show since the Jets last-second win. Folk has been OK, Palardy is awful and Bailey was terrible all year before being placed on IR. You could make a case that the Raiders punt block and the Minnesota kick off return TD possibly cost them 1 or 2 games. This team is one of the worst teams in situational football in the NFL.
Folk has been awesome, he's 2nd in the NFL in points. Hasn't missed a PAT.(which very few kickers can say) Is 30-35 on FGs. Folk is without a doubt the 2nd best player on offense behind Rahm.
Tom Curran is not someone I look to for analysis. He used to be a good beat guy but now he is in it for the hot takes. Phil Perry is lightyears ahead of him on that network/site.
Can't speak to the Vikings KO return TD but the punt block Sunday was partly due to some play clock confusion caused by the refs that caused Cardona to snap the ball before anyone on the Pats thought he would. Article below from Phil and a snippet.
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/patriots/blocked-punt-play-result-some-strange-clock-work-officials
O'Shea got a promotion in Cleveland - he's passing game coordinator in addition to WR coach.
We can't tell very easily from the outside what the issues are or whose fault it is, but I imagine Belichick et al have a pretty good idea.
The only thing that makes sense to me is that Bill felt like the offense had gotten away from him under McDaniels and he wanted to be more plugged in and set the direction more clearly. Appointing a couple blank slate offensive minds would make sense through that lens. I go back and forth on how much he expected the O to struggle this year - I think the OL issues were something of a surprise, but he had to know he was locked in to the disastrous TE and Agholor signings from the previous offseason.
"Allegiance" is the wrong word here. Patricia seems like someone who is going to follow most of Belichick's guidelines in terms of how he wants to run an offense. The conservative nature of this offense is 100% Belichick's design and philosophy, Patricia is merely executing it.
Sometimes in these play clock situations, the team just needs to live with the 5 yards for delay. It's just not a big deal in many situations, especially a punting situation. Like third and 18 in the third quarter. The QB sees the clock running down and calls a time out that is probably going to turn out to be more valuable than the 5 yards. Or worse, snaps too early and there is a mistake.
This is an entirely mediocre team, led by an entirely mediocre coaching staff and front office. Bellichick has completely spit the bit after Brady. The defense is good against mediocre backup QBs and average against good QBs. The offense is the worst I remember since the Dick MacPherson Pats. Special teams lost several games this year, including last week's game. All coaches lose it. Bill lost it. Time to try someone else. Why is this so hard to recognize?
Because there's no evidence that it's true?
In the three years after Brady left, the Patriots - in a major rebuild mode - have gone 24-23, one year with a totally broken Cam Newton at QB and the other a season where they made the playoffs with a rookie QB - something that rarely happens.
He's had successive very good drafts, and the team has added lots of good young talent, going through the rebuild while remaining competitive.
If 24-23 in a major rebuild - when other franchises completely TANK during their rebuilds - then this is the opposite of evidence that Bill has "lost it".
24-23 is the definition of mediocre. How is that not obvious? Do you have any faith that the APtriots could win a playoff game in the foreseeable future? I don't. Time to move on.
Well, if YOU don’t, I guess we totally should move on. I mean “Moonlight Graham” said so. I guess that’s the bottom line.
24-23 is mediocre. But it's pretty amazing *when you're in total rebuilding mode*. They're managing to rebuild *while remaining competitive*. For him to be at about .500 with Cam and a rookie Mac Jones as his QBs for two of those seasons is pretty amazing actually and it speaks to how good BB is. When your worst seasons are .500 while you're rebuilding, that means you're one hell of a coach.
This is where I disagree. You can't say he's a hell of a coach and accept he has a mediocre record. He built this team and coaches it. So many dumb plays. So many uncompetitive games against quality opponents. And, if you are in total rebuilding mode, why do you overspend on Jonnu Smith, Agholor etc? Spoiler alert: because the past several years' drafts were abysmal.
Yeah, when your worst seasons are .500 rebuilding seasons, you're a hell of a coach. If .500 was his peak, then yeah, you've got an argument. But....you don't.
What signs show you there is a path toward Super Bowl contention? To me, the #1 ingredient is talent, and BB has been mediocre or worse at drafting for over a decade now. Then #2 is coaching. Does this team seem well-coached to you? How many more years of "rebuilding" has he earned? In my mind, it is dumb to pay for past performance. Pay for what you think the coach and GM will deliver in the future. Watching them throw away games because I'm grateful he beat the Falcons in SB LI seems like the exact opposite approach BB has taken throughout his career.
How many years of rebuilding has he earned? A hell of a lot more than you are apparently willing to give him.
But you’re right. One year after winning ten games and making the playoffs with a rookie QB, Belichick has completely lost it and has fallen totally off the cliff. What a crap coach he is now.
But you’re right. One year after winning ten games and making the playoffs with a rookie QB, Belichick has completely lost it and has fallen totally off the cliff. What a crap coach he is now.
They are the fifth oldest team in the NFL. Lots of rebuilding left to do.
I didn’t say he was a crap coach. I said he has been mediocre as the head of the Patriots for the past 3 years. He is in charge of everything. So if the team is mediocre, his performance is mediocre is too. Wow, he won 10 games with a rookie QB! Did you think that team had any chance of advancing in the playoffs? Of course not. They beat bad teams and lost to good teams. Because they do not have enough talent. Because BB didn’t assemble enough talent. And then this year BB didn’t assemble a competent coaching staff anywhere except on Defense. It’s clear that he has been completely mediocre. The bar is higher here.
You can't fill every hole on the roster through the draft, they needed tight ends and receivers as they had missed on Harry in 2019 and Asiasi and Keene in 2020 so they wound up with the large FA class in 21.
And speaking of drafts I think they've done pretty well the last three years:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2020_draft.htm
- Hit on Dugger, Uche, and Owenu and Jennings has been decent in spot duty.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2021_draft.htm
- Hit on Barmore and Stephenson and I'd argue Mac as well despite this years OL/OC driven shit show.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2022_draft.htm
- Strange has been up and down but I think he's been more good than bad and they've found players in both Jack and Marcus Jones. The rookie RBs have looked good when called into action as well.
I didn't think Henry was disastrous last year.i thought he played quite well
They have Slater, dmc, folk that are quite old. There are a lot of young guys on this roster.
Folk, Hoyer, and Slater really skew that. They’ve added tons of young talent. But yes they still have lots of rebuilding left to do.
In terms of being the greatest in the league, BB has lost it.
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One metric is Career Approximate Value Over Expected (CAVOE). Check out the Patriots over the past ten years. Really good until 5 years ago, then not so much (2017 -15.4, 2018 -4.6, 2019 -24.4, 2020 -6.3, 2021 1.7): https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33297949/nfl-draft-which-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32
If Bill was fired today, and he said he was ready to keep coaching. Where does the bidding start? Numbers would be astronomical.
He'd instantly be the highest paid coach in the NFL (if he isn't right now anyway). And all the Pats fans who wanted him gone would see him do wonders with his new team and see the Pats' rebuild take even longer and they'd think, why can't we get guys like that?