Let's Talk about the manager -- The John Farrell Thread

[Toe Nash]

Some stuff to talk about tonight. If it was a regular season game I wouldn't bump the thread but lots of people were wondering if we'd see a different Playoff Farrell or not. I think he made three mistakes, potentially game-changing:
 
-I would not have PR Berry for Ortiz. I get the reasoning for sure but Papi had been your best hitter (and seems real confident right now, for what that's worth) and the game had the makings of extras. Carp is a decent option but he's no Papi.
-If you do PR Berry for Ortiz then you're going for the run that inning. So why do you leave in Salty and Drew against the LHP? Both are sorry hitters against lefties and you have Bogaerts on the bench. 
-In the bottom of the 8th, I'd have brought in Koji instead of Workman. Workman pitched pretty well and the defense let him down but that's very likely to be your highest-leverage situation and you need a K. Maybe this ended up not mattering if Koji didn't have his best stuff, but who knows there.
 
For the record I didn't mind the Victorino bunt in the 9th. It improved their win expectancy and they pitched to Pedroia anyway. I would have maybe preferred he didn't telegraph it by bring the bat into bunting position as the pitch was thrown -- I feel like he's a good enough bunter to not have to do that, but the outcome was likely the same either way. The best argument against it was Rodney's wildness, but maybe he settles down a bit either way.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Workman was one of the few bright spots from the loss. The manager brought Workman in to get a DP in a DP situation. He did everything he could but didn't get one.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I had no problem pinch running for Ortiz.  That was the "go for it" inning, and that's what Berry is for.  However, once you do that, you absolutely can't let Salty bat against a solid lefty.

 

[rembrat]

Some stuff to talk about tonight. If it was a regular season game I wouldn't bump the thread but lots of people were wondering if we'd see a different Playoff Farrell or not. I think he made three mistakes, potentially game-changing:
 
-I would not have PR Berry for Ortiz. I get the reasoning for sure but Papi had been your best hitter (and seems real confident right now, for what that's worth) and the game had the makings of extras. Carp is a decent option but he's no Papi.
-If you do PR Berry for Ortiz then you're going for the run that inning. So why do you leave in Salty and Drew against the LHP? Both are sorry hitters against lefties and you have Bogaerts on the bench. 
-In the bottom of the 8th, I'd have brought in Koji instead of Workman. Workman pitched pretty well and the defense let him down but that's very likely to be your highest-leverage situation and you need a K. Maybe this ended up not mattering if Koji didn't have his best stuff, but who knows there.
 
For the record I didn't mind the Victorino bunt in the 9th. It improved their win expectancy and they pitched to Pedroia anyway. I would have maybe preferred he didn't telegraph it by bring the bat into bunting position as the pitch was thrown -- I feel like he's a good enough bunter to not have to do that, but the outcome was likely the same either way. The best argument against it was Rodney's wildness, but maybe he settles down a bit either way.

 
 
1. Not pinch running for Ortiz is playing to win the game in extras vs playing to win in 9 frames. And if Ortiz comes up in the same situation Carp came up then he is getting four wide ones so his being in the game at that point doesn't matter. Ortiz in extras probably gets walked unless the bases are juiced and then you're left in the same position you were had you pinch run for him... hoping the next guy can do something with it.
 
2. Farrell hasn't done this all year. Stop looking for it.
 
3. Workman did his job but the defense didn't. There is no way that is on Farrell.
 
Farrell did a good job tonight. He recognized that he needed 3 more outs from his starter and that the bottom of the order was coming up so he sent Buch back out there with men warming and it worked. He pulled Breslow the minute he lost the LHH and got Taz for Longoria which worked. He PR Berry and Berry got to 2B with nobody out but the offense couldn't push him through. He went to Workman and got the double play ball he needed but Pedroia messed up. He bunted with Victorino and they ended up tying the game. He went to his closer on the road in a tie game and it didn't work but at least the Sox lost with their best on the mound.
 
Really, he pushed a lot of good buttons tonight. If you can't see that then you are just looking for someone to blame which I understand.

 

[bosockboy]

Only flaw was letting Salty and Drew hit. If you are going all in by pulling Papi then go all in. Put the team in the best position to get the run home.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

Only flaw was letting Salty and Drew hit. If you are going all in by pulling Papi then go all in. Put the team in the best position to get the run home.

Absolutely. This, to me, is inexcusable.

 

[Lefty on the Mound]

Farrell's biggest mistake was not walking Longoria with first base open. Period. Huge mistake. He let the "one guy you can't let beat you" best them.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

The two options, Ross for Salty, X for Drew in the 8th, come with other risks. X was the last pinch runner on the bench and Ross your last catcher

If you hit X for Drew, you dot have him as a pinch runner later. It didn't look that close, but does Middlebrooks score on pedroia's grounder or is more likely to run into the out at third on Ell's pop up single?

Interesting that Madden went all in hitting with his last catcher, while Farrell saved Ross and that is what won him the game. Of course, salty made two incredible plays in the bottom of the 8th that perhaps Ross doesn't make.

The summary is that all of the manager decisions were defensible and before the incredibly unlikely happen the Sox were in a better chance to win. He got beat by a manager who literally threw the kitchen sink in and got lucky. With Two innings of Koji and TB down to zero hitters and one pitcher, we all felt pretty optimistic.

 

[jezza1918]

Only flaw was letting Salty and Drew hit. If you are going all in by pulling Papi then go all in. Put the team in the best position to get the run home.

FWIW, McGee does have a reverse split and has been more effective vs. righties for his career, albeit only slightly this season: in 81 AB's lefties hit .235 with an OPS of .678, in 152 AB's righties hit .217 with an OPS .648.

 

[mabrowndog]

-If you do PR Berry for Ortiz then you're going for the run that inning. So why do you leave in Salty and Drew against the LHP? Both are sorry hitters against lefties and you have Bogaerts on the bench. 

 

2. Farrell hasn't done this all year. Stop looking for it.

 
Well, that's the problem, isn't it??
 
If the expectation is 100% that Farrell's going to leave in two guys who are virtual eunuchs against LHP, then Farrell had to have one thing in mind and one thing only: He had to have been 100% certain that Napoli would drive Berry in. Because there's no way he could have seriously expected either Salty or Drew to get a hit in that situation. There's no way ANY rational human could have seriously expected either Salty or Drew to get a hit in that situation.
 
"Dance With The Girl That Brung Ya", rather than the much hotter chick who's clearly craving your knob, only works when the "Girl That Brung Ya" gives you a hummer on the way home that night. In this case both "Girls That Brung Ya" were known to not hold their liquor well and, sure enough, they puked on the rich Corinthian leather upholstery of your Chrysler Cordoba and passed out.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Interesting that Madden went all in hitting with his last catcher, while Farrell saved Ross and that is what won him the game. Of course, salty made two incredible plays in the bottom of the 8th that perhaps Ross doesn't make.

 
Maddon is managing with his back against the wall.  I can't really fault Farrell for saving Ross since he's still operating with a net (the 2-0 lead in the series)...he can afford to save a bullet no matter how much angst we fans have to end the series as soon as possible.
 
The move Maddon made that baffled me is the one that eventually led to Lobaton being in the position he was in to hit the HR, and that was putting Joyce into the game and losing the DH.  He had Sam Fuld and Kelly Johnson on the bench, so it's not as though Joyce was his last possible outfield option.  He later moved Joyce to left to play Fuld in right, so it's not as though he was afraid to play anyone else out there.  Even if he was saving Fuld to pinch run, why not use Johnson instead of Joyce.  Maybe he doesn't want Johnson in RF, but Johnson could play 2B with Zobrist moving to right where he has logged over 2000 innings in his career.  That was a big risk he took putting the pitcher's spot into the lineup.
 
But it all worked out, so Maddon is a "genius".  Maybe I should have put this in the "Douche or Genius" thread instead.

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
 
Well, that's the problem, isn't it??
 
If the expectation is 100% that Farrell's going to leave in two guys who are virtual eunuchs against LHP, then Farrell had to have one thing in mind and one thing only: He had to have been 100% certain that Napoli would drive Berry in. Because there's no way he could have seriously expected either Salty or Drew to get a hit in that situation. There's no way ANY rational human could have seriously expected either Salty or Drew to get a hit in that situation.
 
"Dance With The Girl That Brung Ya", rather than the much hotter chick who's clearly craving your knob, only works when the "Girl That Brung Ya" gives you a hummer on the way home that night. In this case both "Girls That Brung Ya" were known to not hold their liquor well and, sure enough, they puked on the rich Corinthian leather upholstery of your Chrysler Cordoba and passed out.

Beyond that, he actually made a comment to the media after the extra innings loss to Baltimore, I believe, that he had explained to Drew that things would be different in the post-season. And then he didn't make the change!

That was one batter too late anyway. You hit Ross for Salty in that situation, period. If he brings in the righty (unlikely), you can leave Drew in. If he keeps the lefty in for Ross, you PH Xander and let him face Wright. Either way, you are getting at least one better matchup in those crucial at bats, and maybe two. I don't want to hear about how he's done it all year, it was another example of piss-poor in-game managing by Farrell. The logic that "it's not on Farrell" because he made a bad decision he's been making all year isn't exactly convincing.

The Shane bunt was stupid, too. Playing for a tie on the road with a guy who can't throw strikes on the mound is not smart. If Shane takes that second pitch it's 2-0. But he's been doing it all tear, so yay that!

That notwithstanding, Clay just needs to be more careful with Longoria. Keep the ball down and away, and see if he chases. Plenty of blame to go around, if we need to do that, but let's not pretend Farrell was making good baseball decisions and it was all on his players. He wasn't. Again.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Only flaw was letting Salty and Drew hit. If you are going all in by pulling Papi then go all in. Put the team in the best position to get the run home.

 
I think this arguments holds more for Drew than Salty. Having already used Gomes, the Sox really only had one RH pinch hitter worth a damn, and that's Bogaerts. Ross is not a good enough hitter to make PHing him for Salty a necessary move, I don't think. Of course you could PH Bogaerts for Salty, but then you've blown your starting catcher and your backup shortstop.
 
The other thing nobody's mentioning here is that if you pinch hit for either Salty or Drew, doesn't Maddon just go to Rodney for the four- or five-out save at that point? (He wouldn't have done that with Gomes because there was no need to with first base open.)  
 

Farrell's biggest mistake was not walking Longoria with first base open. Period. Huge mistake. He let the "one guy you can't let beat you" best them.

 
You've just put your finger on why the acquisition of Myers was so huge for the Rays. Myers actually hit RHP better than Longoria this year; I'm not sure I'd rather pitch to him, all things considered, and I'm quite sure I don't want to put the tying run on base so I can pitch to him.

 

[TheoShmeo]

 
 
Well, that's the problem, isn't it??
 
If the expectation is 100% that Farrell's going to leave in two guys who are virtual eunuchs against LHP, then Farrell had to have one thing in mind and one thing only: He had to have been 100% certain that Napoli would drive Berry in. Because there's no way he could have seriously expected either Salty or Drew to get a hit in that situation. There's no way ANY rational human could have seriously expected either Salty or Drew to get a hit in that situation.
 
"Dance With The Girl That Brung Ya", rather than the much hotter chick who's clearly craving your knob, only works when the "Girl That Brung Ya" gives you a hummer on the way home that night. In this case both "Girls That Brung Ya" were known to not hold their liquor well and, sure enough, they puked on the rich Corinthian leather upholstery of your Chrysler Cordoba and passed out.

I'm with you re Drew and Salty but it's not as if JF's answer -- that McGee has been very tough on righties and Drew is a good fast ball hitter -- make no sense.  And it's not as if bringing your back-up catcher into a game is without risk when you don't have a third catcher.  If McGee's splits were more in line with the average lefty reliever, I would strongly agree with you.
 
To me, the most questionable move was giving Longoria anything to hit.  I would have preferred that they either walk him ourtight or give him only pitches off the plate.  But even there, I don't think it's nearly black and white, as I'm not in love with loading the bases and giving Clay no margin for error.   And what a chance for Myers to get the monkey off his back if they had done that.  It's not as if Myers is a chump; he's not hitting now but we know what kind of talent this kid is.  

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

1) Not sure why they went after Longo. Should have flirted with zone and see if he'd chase.

2) PR for Orriz was fine if you pinch hit for at least one of Saltt or Drew.

3) Didn't like Morales in there in the 8th. He predictably shit the bed. Workman nearly pulled that out.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The bench is there to use - the only question is do you use it in a way that helps you win.   However, it's not the AS game. 
 
Farrell's decisions were defensible, but not brilliant, as laid out above.  I'm surprised people haven't pointed out that a win gets everyone days off - so there's no real reason not to go for the jugular if they can. 
 
Last thought is that the Rays were jubilant over a one run win.  But otherwise they've been mangled by the Sox.  But for the Rays improbably squeaking by due to Sox miscues, they're toast.  So this isn't a momentum changer - it's not the 2004 Sox situation where the better team puts itself down and then comes tearing back.  The Rays are not a team of destiny. 

 

[smastroyin]

It's tough to manage a tie game on the road.  I think I would have liked to have seen something completely unconventional like bringing in Uehara to face Longoria.  I know there is a whole bevy of info about roles, etc.  But I think that would have showed that they were willing to do something in a single game to really break out of the box.  I wonder if something like that would have happened if it had been one inning later (it's tough to do in the fifth, admittedly).  I'm just saying, even if it had backfired, I would like to see that kind of aggression to shut down the series.  
 
The auto pinch-run for Ortiz is kind of annoying at this point.  Maybe at some point I'll go through game logs and find out there is something different than my recollection that it rarely works out.  One of the problems is that the guys behind David Ortiz are not "cut down the swing and get the run home" type hitters.  So you are often getting the kind of contact where it doesn't matter who is on the bases.  I think the time to hit Xander would have been with one out, though, and then double switch in the catcher, rather than the simple "hit Ross for Salty" and "hit Xander for Drew" business.
 
rembrat is right though, I may as well complain about the sun rising.  This is who Farrell is.

 

[Ed Hillel]

The other thing nobody's mentioning here is that if you pinch hit for either Salty or Drew, doesn't Maddon just go to Rodney for the four- or five-out save at that point? (He wouldn't have done that with Gomes because there was no need to with first base open.)  

I believe the only guy warming was Wright. Even so, I'd be thrilled if Maddon wanted Rodney to get 4-5 outs. Much happier, at least, than having a flame-throwing lefty against Salty and Drew. Salty should probably stop hitting righty altogether, at least away from Fenway, but that's a different topic.

As for Ross being the last catching option, you can't worry about that stuff late in playoff games. The odds of him suffering a game-ending injury are miniscule.

 

[trotsplits]

I question the Victorino bunt.  In real-time it seemed like Rodney wasn't finding the plate. Until the bunt, he'd thrown 6 balls in 8 pitches (counting the bloop 1B).  Why not let Shane take or grind out a walk and see if Pedroia finds his laser beam with the bases full?

 

[glennhoffmania]

The Shane bunt was stupid, too. Playing for a tie on the road with a guy who can't throw strikes on the mound is not smart. If Shane takes that second pitch it's 2-0. But he's been doing it all tear, so yay that!

 
 

I absolutely hated the bunt.  The guy couldn't throw strikes and was clearly frustrated.  Victorino is less likely to hit into a DP than most guys.  Giving up an out there was a gift.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

As for Ross being the last catching option, you can't worry about that stuff late in playoff games. The odds of him suffering a game-ending injury are miniscule.

 
Plus, this team does have Napoli. I know there's been talk that Nap will never catch, no matter what, but you've got to think having a guy who's regularly caught ~75 big league games over the past five years gives you a little more cushion with that kind of move, no? 
 
The bigger question is whether Ross is really that much better against a lefty with no real split, and that's certainly debatable. 
 
In truth, I think the Sox basically just lost a bullpen game. Clay and Cobb were very similar in their starts and the Rays bullpen was a little bit better (or the Sox defense was a little bit worse, take your pick). Maddon definitely threw the kitchen sink at that game and they managed to win because an all-world closer gave up a bomb to a nobody. Shit happens. 

 

[KillerBs]

I thought the bullpen usage was curious to say the least. I would have thought when he went to the pen to open the 7th, he had decided to take care of the 7-8-9 innings with the Big 3 in the pen. And if it was still tied after 9 (or 10), he would then go to the back end. Instead he burns both Breslow and Tazawa in the 7th and then, instead of turning to Ue for two innings, as I expected, he gave the 8th inning to Morales and Workman. Is that how they drew that up? I didn't think our play off bullpen entailed giving the 8th inning to the Morales/Workman combo.
 
Impossible to say it cost us the game, but I would think the better move there is to go with a 3 man pen for the last 3 or 3+ innings. If you want to try to squeeze an extra match up out of it, go with Morales against a select LHBer or two to open the seventh, leaving Breslow/Uehara for the 8th. 
 
Totally agree that he needs to PH Bogaerts for Drew in that situation in the 8th. It is disappointing to me that he could not pull the trigger on that move. Hopefully it has nothing to do with Farrell thinking he needs to preserve Drew's psyche in any way. I am sure Drew would get over it, quick, especially if X got a hit there.  
 
We have a real weapon on the bench in X, a once in a generation prospect. He is not just another UI with a little pop from the right side. Farrell can't be afraid to use him. 

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I absolutely hated the bunt.  The guy couldn't throw strikes and was clearly frustrated.  Victorino is less likely to hit into a DP than most guys.  Giving up an out there was a gift.

 
This is right where I am on the bunt. Rodney may always have poor "body language" on the mound, but he looked like someone killed his puppy last night and giving him an out should have been the last thing on Farrell's mind with Victorino being so hot in the second half. The guy's been getting on base like crazy - give him a shot. 

 

[Toe Nash]

 
rembrat is right though, I may as well complain about the sun rising.  This is who Farrell is.

Maybe, but we thought that Tito was who he was too, until he became a master in-game tactician when the games mattered most and the long view wasn't as important. We don't have much data on Playoff Farrell yet and at least I was hopeful he'd change a bit, especially since he spent so much time with Francona. I did note this in my post -- I wouldn't have said anything if it were a regular season game.
 
I would also like to point out that even if McGee had reverse splits Jamey Wright is 58 and was manhandled by the Sox in game 1. Force Maddon to make a decision.

 

[mabrowndog]

Last thought is that the Rays were jubilant over a one run win.

 
They were jubilant over coming back from a 3-0 deficit while shovel-fulls of dirt were on the verge of being dumped on their grave.
 

 
But otherwise they've been mangled by the Sox.  

 
You mean like how the 2004 Yankees outscored Boston 32-16 in the first 3 ALCS games?
 

 
So this isn't a momentum changer - it's not the 2004 Sox situation where the better team puts itself down and then comes tearing back.  The Rays are not a team of destiny. 

 
We don't know that yet.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

 
This is right where I am on the bunt. Rodney may always have poor "body language" on the mound, but he looked like someone killed his puppy last night and giving him an out should have been the last thing on Farrell's mind with Victorino being so hot in the second half. The guy's been getting on base like crazy - give him a shot. 

 
Tango's run expectancy charts:
 
1st and 2nd, 0 outs: 1.556 runs
2nd and 3rd, 1 out: 1.447 runs
 
1st and 2nd, 0 outs: 64.3% chance of a run scoring
2nd and 3rd, 1 out: 69.8% chance of a run scoring
 
So.
 
Bunting marginally increases the chance of scoring a run in that inning, but marginally decreases the number of runs a team might be expected to score. Kind of a push there.
 
Disclaimer: The chart I'm looking at is based on 1993-2010 run figures, so without it being fully up to date I can't claim this is wholly accurate to yesterday's game. And as others have noted, these charts are good for general calls but don't take into account specific situations (ie, Rodney struggling to throw strikes, on the road vs home, playoff implications, etc).
 
My take: I hate bunting like the plague, so if there's ever any reason not to bunt I'll always take it. With Rodney having problems with his control and looking frustrated, and with Victorino the batter as a guy unlikely to ground into a double play, I think calling for the bunt was a mistake, even if it "worked" as the Sox did tie up the score.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I believe the only guy warming was Wright. Even so, I'd be thrilled if Maddon wanted Rodney to get 4-5 outs. Much happier, at least, than having a flame-throwing lefty against Salty and Drew. Salty should probably stop hitting righty altogether, at least away from Fenway, but that's a different topic.

As for Ross being the last catching option, you can't worry about that stuff late in playoff games. The odds of him suffering a game-ending injury are miniscule.

 
Reasonable point--and in that unlikely emergency of emergencies you could ask Napoli to step behind there, I suppose.
 
Maybe McGee's reverse split is the best reason after all, that and the fact that Salty and Drew have both come through with big hits off LHP already in this series, so maybe Farrell hoped that might carry over for at least one of them.

 

[smastroyin]

Maybe, but we thought that Tito was who he was too, until he became a master in-game tactician when the games mattered most and the long view wasn't as important. We don't have much data on Playoff Farrell yet and at least I was hopeful he'd change a bit, especially since he spent so much time with Francona. I did note this in my post -- I wouldn't have said anything if it were a regular season game.
 
I would also like to point out that even if McGee had reverse splits Jamey Wright is 58 and was manhandled by the Sox in game 1. Force Maddon to make a decision.

 
Oh, I agree, and last night Farrell did literally every single thing that I have complained about all year that people kept telling me wouldn't necessarily happen in playoff games.  
 
Mangerial edges are small compared to keeping the team running, etc., but I don't think John Farrell's in game management is going to win the Red Sox any playoff games.  Farrell doesn't have a flaw as fatal as Grady's inability to recognize when a starter was cooked, but he's not a good in-game manager.

 

[Marceline]

Speier took a look at some of these decisions in a column this morning. Farrell gave the reverse split for McGee as the reason for leaving Drew in:
 

 
Farrell said in September that there would likely come a time when the games took on urgency that he would pinch-hit Xander Bogaerts for Stephen Drew against tough left-handed pitchers. Yet when such an opportunity presented itself, with the hard-throwing McGee on the mound, two outs and Berry on second in the top of the eighth, Farrell stuck with Drew, who saw six fastballs (all 96 mph and up), concluding with a 1-2 96 mph heater that Drew fouled to Longoria to quash the rally. 
 
Why no Bogaerts? 
 
"McGee has been dominant against right-handed hitters. He's almost a right-handed reliever in some ways because of the strong reverse splits he has," Farrell said. "Stephen is a good fastball hitter. We know McGee is going to come at us with 95 percent fastballs, if not more. There was no hesitation to leave Stephen at the plate."

 
http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/10/08/pivot-points-look-red-sox-manager-john-farrell

 

[Gunfighter 09]

It worked out for them, but I still can't believe Madden pitched to Pedroia with first base open, one out & Carp on deck. I typically hate bunting as well, but I was good with it last night because I was certain they would walk Pedey, giving Carp & Napoli shots with the bases loaded and one out. I hope they keep giving Pedey chances to win games.

The point about Napoli being able to catch certainly changes my thoughts on not hitting Ross for Salty.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Not walking Longoria with first base open to pitch to Myers. Myers is, or was a basket case. He's 0 for 12 with 4 strikeouts in the series. Longo is Longo. Did anybody ask Farrell postgame why he had Buchholz pitch to Longo? Or maybe soft-shoe it and ask if he even considered walking Longo?

 

[rembrat]

Not walking Longoria with first base open to pitch to Myers. Myers is, or was a basket case. He's 0 for 12 with 4 strikeouts in the series. Longo is Longo. Did anybody ask Farrell postgame why he had Buchholz pitch to Longo? Or maybe soft-shoe it and ask if he even considered walking Longo?

 
Did you bother to read the link posted by Joe Sixpack?

 

[koufax37]

 
Tango's run expectancy charts:
 
1st and 2nd, 0 outs: 1.556 runs
2nd and 3rd, 1 out: 1.447 runs
 
1st and 2nd, 0 outs: 64.3% chance of a run scoring
2nd and 3rd, 1 out: 69.8% chance of a run scoring
 
So.
 
Bunting marginally increases the chance of scoring a run in that inning, but marginally decreases the number of runs a team might be expected to score. Kind of a push there.
 
Disclaimer: The chart I'm looking at is based on 1993-2010 run figures, so without it being fully up to date I can't claim this is wholly accurate to yesterday's game. And as others have noted, these charts are good for general calls but don't take into account specific situations (ie, Rodney struggling to throw strikes, on the road vs home, playoff implications, etc).
 
My take: I hate bunting like the plague, so if there's ever any reason not to bunt I'll always take it. With Rodney having problems with his control and looking frustrated, and with Victorino the batter as a guy unlikely to ground into a double play, I think calling for the bunt was a mistake, even if it "worked" as the Sox did tie up the score.

 
I don't think that those run charts relate closely enough to the actual situation last night to be useful in determining the choice.  What they show you is that it is close enough that you can weigh the in game actuals and make a decision.  I still don't understand why they don't walk Pedroia after the bunt with Ortiz gone, and the fact that they didn't shows a little bit about their confidence in Rodney throwing strikes (having an open base puts a wild pitcher in a better situation to pitch effectively).  Similarly, the run and win tables factor in all types of runners and the double play, and all types of pitchers, not just high strikeout dominant closers with momentary control issues.
 
I think it was a reasonable bunt, although I would have preferred not bunting by a very small margin.
 
I also think that Drew over XB is reasonable given all the circumstances and matchups (reverse splits, pressure of making a playoff debut, Drew's triple against the fastball of a similar lefty a few days earlier), although I think XB probably edges SD slightly in expected results.
 
The part I don't get the most is leaving in Salty in instead of Ross.  Ross is a veteran and one of your guys, and already has gotten a chance to play and contribute, and I think pretty substantially represents a better matchup against McGee than RHB Salty.  That is the move that frustrated me most.
 
All that said, if you are going to err, I would rather err in under managing than over managing, and Farrell largely did that.  I'm not happy with how the ball bounced (including poor Workman's two grounders and Uehara's last pitch), but I can live with this game and think we will beat the snot out of Hellickson tonight.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Not walking Longoria with first base open to pitch to Myers. Myers is, or was a basket case. He's 0 for 12 with 4 strikeouts in the series. Longo is Longo. Did anybody ask Farrell postgame why he had Buchholz pitch to Longo? Or maybe soft-shoe it and ask if he even considered walking Longo?

There isn't a single manager who would have IBB'd Longoria in that situation.  I don't care what Myers has hit in that tiny SS, you gotta figure the probability of Longoria HR < Myers 2B or HR (or Myers 1B followed by Loney 1B).  Clear example of Monday morning QBing and results-driven criticism.
 
Farrell made one questionable move and one terrible move last night.  The questionable move was sticking with Stephen Drew with 2 out and the go ahead run at 2B.  What you think of that move ultimately comes down to whether you buy Farrell's explanation that McGee's reverse splits outweighs the massive difference in splits between Drew v. LHP and Boegarts v. LHP and what you think about Boegarts getting his first postseason AB against a guy who was throwing that kind of heat.  Myself, I think that was the wrong call but I can appreciate that it's not a slam dunk.
 
The terrible move was putting in Morales to start the 8th.  You just can't go with a pitcher with questionable control in that situation.  The walk and everything that followed was depressingly predictable.  If you really wanted a lefty there the choice was Doubront, personally I would have stuck with Tazawa for another inning, but no way is Morales the right call there.  
 
Anyone heard yet if Myers is available tonight?

 

[rodderick]

There isn't a single manager who would have IBB'd Longoria in that situation.  I don't care what Myers has hit in that tiny SS, you gotta figure the probability of Longoria HR < Myers 2B or HR (or Myers 1B followed by Loney 1B).  Clear example of Monday morning QBing and results-driven criticism.
 
Farrell made one questionable move and one terrible move last night.  The questionable move was sticking with Stephen Drew with 2 out and the go ahead run at 2B.  What you think of that move ultimately comes down to whether you buy Farrell's explanation that McGee's reverse splits outweighs the massive difference in splits between Drew v. LHP and Boegarts v. LHP and what you think about Boegarts getting his first postseason AB against a guy who was throwing that kind of heat.  Myself, I think that was the wrong call but I can appreciate that it's not a slam dunk.
 
The terrible move was putting in Morales to start the 8th.  You just can't go with a pitcher with questionable control in that situation.  The walk and everything that followed was depressingly predictable.  If you really wanted a lefty there the choice was Doubront, personally I would have stuck with Tazawa for another inning, but no way is Morales the right call there.  
 
Anyone heard yet if Myers is available tonight?

 
Uh...
 
But the overall point still stands, Farrell took playing the matchup a little too far there. How many significant innings has Morales thrown in the regular season? And you're gonna get him up there in the 8th in a tied playoff game? That was very weird. 

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

I'll rephrase.  You simply can't go with a pitcher whose control is obviously completely terrible.  

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
I don't think that those run charts relate closely enough to the actual situation last night to be useful in determining the choice.  What they show you is that it is close enough that you can weigh the in game actuals and make a decision.  I still don't understand why they don't walk Pedroia after the bunt with Ortiz gone, and the fact that they didn't shows a little bit about their confidence in Rodney throwing strikes (having an open base puts a wild pitcher in a better situation to pitch effectively).  Similarly, the run and win tables factor in all types of runners and the double play, and all types of pitchers, not just high strikeout dominant closers with momentary control issues.
 
I think it was a reasonable bunt, although I would have preferred not bunting by a very small margin.
 
 

 
This is exactly why the bunt was the wrong call.  In a vacuum we can debate the decision and look at Tango's charts.  But Rodney couldn't throw a strike.  There was the potential to have a multiple run inning there and they helped Rodney limit the damage.  When the pitcher looks totally lost on the mound and you get the first two batters on base I don't know why you have one of your better hitters, not to mention one of your fastest runners, give himself up.  Hell, the odds of Victorino grounding into a DP may not have been any higher than Rodney walking him, hitting him, or throwing a wild pitch.  To me this was clearly the worst decision Farrell made last night.

 

[Al Zarilla]

There isn't a single manager who would have IBB'd Longoria in that situation.  I don't care what Myers has hit in that tiny SS, you gotta figure the probability of Longoria HR < Myers 2B or HR (or Myers 1B followed by Loney 1B).  Clear example of Monday morning QBing and results-driven criticism.
 
 

I wish I could ask Bochy, or Girardi, or Melvin, or Francona, or (ick) Showalter, or Matheny that question. I'd bet 3 - 1 at least a majority of them would have walked Longo. For crissakes, Pedro Martinez Himself had said very emphatically on pregame Do Not Let Longoria Beat You. I believe that would mean you walk him if you have a situation like you had with first base open and a lesser hitter (which Myers certainly is) coming up next. If it were Loney with a RHP (Buchholz) up next, I would agree with you and pitch to Longo. 

 

[koufax37]

 
This is exactly why the bunt was the wrong call.  In a vacuum we can debate the decision and look at Tango's charts.  But Rodney couldn't throw a strike.  There was the potential to have a multiple run inning there and they helped Rodney limit the damage.  When the pitcher looks totally lost on the mound and you get the first two batters on base I don't know why you have one of your better hitters, not to mention one of your fastest runners, give himself up.  Hell, the odds of Victorino grounding into a DP may not have been any higher than Rodney walking him, hitting him, or throwing a wild pitch.  To me this was clearly the worst decision Farrell made last night.

 
Agreed on favoring swinging away, but I do think it is a closer decision based on small factors, and not clear cut in either direction.
 
I know you play for the win on the road, but scoring a run there was huge AND we were in a position to score two by our best hitter hitting with two in scoring position.  I would rather we stick with grinding it out and take our chances.  Also the win tables and run tables do not account for having a high strikeout dominant closer on the mound, which definitely reduces your likelihood of scoring a runner from third with 1 out (even though we did it).
 
Rodney was wild to the glove side primarily, and that is usually a tougher wildness to recover (when wild to the arm side, you can focus on getting out to your release point and often correct in a pitch or two, but when wild to the glove side it usually indicates something out of sync with your lower half, and it is much harder to pull back slightly).
 
I think there is a chance he pitches Victorino great and retires him, but even there there is a reasonable chance that you finish with 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd as a result of the out (fly ball to right, double play grounder not turned), which still has a runner on 3rd with less than two outs.  But I think there is a greater chance of one of the other three positive outcomes: 1) he stays wild and draws a walk. 2) he overcompensates for his wild away and hits a very easy to hit batter. 3) without command he lays one in there ripped into the gap.
 
So my primary reason for being against the bunt is the specifics of the matchup and range of results.  I am very happy to get one run out of that and want us to maximize our chances of scoring at least one run, because then we have the advantage (even on the road) of not having a jumbled DH-less lineup and no closer left to use, and the confidence of having just beaten their best reliever and getting a chance to win this against an inferior reliever in the 10th after our unhittable closer retires their backup catcher.
 
And one last wild card in the situation is that while Rodney has a traditional split and is tougher against righties (likely why they pitched to Pedroia), he lacks the type of moving away breaking ball that would cause Victorino to struggle in a righty-righty matchup.
 
But as disappointing as last night turned out, if anybody offered us the chance to be up 2-1 heading into Hellickson-Peavy I think we would have all jumped at the chance.  As much confidence as I have in Lester at Fenway if it gets there, I really want no part of back against the wall and David Price bouncing back, so we need to take care of business tonight, and have Lester lined up to face Oakland on Saturday.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Me, I wouldn't have run for Papi in the 8th, but I can't call that a dumb move.
 
I thought all the pinch-hitting and pitching changes also made perfectly good sense, except leaving Buchholz out there for the 6th.  And Buchholz, of course, had his best inning of the game in the 6th, so what the hell do I know.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Anyone heard yet if Myers is available tonight?

 
I haven't seen or heard anything specific, but considering the diagnosis was cramping and not an injury, I expect he'll be in the lineup...unless Maddon pulls a Maddon and starts Fuld in right because he's a left-handed hitter.

 

[koufax37]

I wish I could ask Bochy, or Girardi, or Melvin, or Francona, or (ick) Showalter, or Matheny that question. I'd bet 3 - 1 at least a majority of them would have walked Longo. For crissakes, Pedro Martinez Himself had said very emphatically on pregame Do Not Let Longoria Beat You. I believe that would mean you walk him if you have a situation like you had with first base open and a lesser hitter (which Myers certainly is) coming up next. If it were Loney with a RHP (Buchholz) up next, I would agree with you and pitch to Longo. 

 
I don't think you put the tying run on base there on purpose and force your pitcher to throw strikes to a very talented and powerful hitter.
 
Don't get me wrong, I don't want to let Longo beat us, but I think Buchholz has a better chance of getting him out with first base open (and the ability to throw his pitch in any count) than facing Myers with no margin for error.  It all comes down to Clay throwing a hittable pitch (not terrible, but too good for 0-1 first base open) and Longo hitting it.  I don't like the changeup inside there, and would have rather seen him work breaking balls away and walk him if he doesn't make an out on one of them.
 
But 5th inning is too soon for IBBs for me in general, and I don't even think I do it later in the game to bring up the winning run in a powerful hitter.  We just needed a better pitch, a worse swing, or better luck.  Failing to execute a pitch against Myers with the bases loaded is probably just as likely and would have been just as bad.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Me, I wouldn't have run for Papi in the 8th, but I can't call that a dumb move.
 
I thought all the pinch-hitting and pitching changes also made perfectly good sense, except leaving Buchholz out there for the 6th.  And Buchholz, of course, had his best inning of the game in the 6th, so what the hell do I know.

 
Buchholz in the sixth was gutsy but really the right call.  They had the bottom of the order coming up and realistically, Farrell doesn't have the arms in the pen to get 12 outs in a tie game.  He didn't really have the arms to get 9 outs, as it turned out, having to use Morales and Workman in the 8th because Breslow couldn't do what everyone else has managed to do in the series: get Zobrist out.
 
They really need seven strong out of Peavy, or a huge lead.

 

[koufax37]

 
I haven't seen or heard anything specific, but considering the diagnosis was cramping and not an injury, I expect he'll be in the lineup...unless Maddon pulls a Maddon and starts Fuld in right because he's a left-handed hitter.

 
Cramping from a baseball outfielder (and not a soccer midfielder) seems pretty inexcusable preparation problems (lack of hydration and stretching) or else terrible luck.  Either way I can't imagine that he won't be back on the field 24 hours later with the training staff taking charge of the situation as they already started last night with IVs.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The terrible move was putting in Morales to start the 8th.  You just can't go with a pitcher with questionable control in that situation.  The walk and everything that followed was depressingly predictable.  If you really wanted a lefty there the choice was Doubront, personally I would have stuck with Tazawa for another inning, but no way is Morales the right call there.  

 
Talk about results-driven criticism...if you can't go with a pitcher with questionable control in that situation, when, exactly, can you? A guy who is such a fountain of napalm that he can only be used when the run expectancy is too small to be seen with the naked eye doesn't belong on the roster in the first place. Nobody on, nobody out, 2 of 3 next hitters LHH, weak half of order coming up--it was a perfect time to use Morales. It just didn't work out.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

 
Talk about results-driven criticism...if you can't go with a pitcher with questionable control in that situation, when, exactly, can you? A guy who is such a fountain of napalm that he can only be used when the run expectancy is too small to be seen with the naked eye doesn't belong on the roster in the first place. Nobody on, nobody out, 2 of 3 next hitters LHH, weak half of order coming up--it was a perfect time to use Morales. It just didn't work out.

I'm not opposed to that interpretation of Morales' abilities.  
 
9th inning of Game 1 seems like a good time for Morales.  I assumed when he made the roster that was the only time he would be used.  

 

[koufax37]

In the heat of the moment in the game thread I criticized Napoli for not throwing home in that situation.  It got less attention when it proved to not be the winning run, but you have to think against Rodney, your chances of winning drop pretty significantly when that run crosses the plate, and attempting to get the out at the plate is probably the smart move even if only 50/50.
 
We don't know what grip Napoli had, but here is a still from after Napoli had gotten up and set his feet to throw, and I think with a catcher's arm and a force play at the plate there is a 50/50 shot to get him, and the right play would have been trying.
 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'm not opposed to that interpretation of Morales' abilities.  
 
9th inning of Game 1 seems like a good time for Morales.  I assumed when he made the roster that was the only time he would be used.  

 
He's a LOOGY, not a mop-up guy. Against LHH the guy's been unhittable....ISO of zero, 2 walks allowed in 42 batters, .446 OPS allowed. That's what he's there for. If he'd gotten Loney out, as he should have, then there might have been a difficult decision to make about letting him pitch to Jennings on the way to Joyce, but the decision to have him pitch to Loney seems unassailable in my mind. It just didn't work.

 

[Al Zarilla]

One last post about not walking Longoria to pitch to Myers. There is another pretty good hitter who is struggling mightily this postseason, Jed Lowrie, who is 0 for 12 with 6 Ks. I would walk, say, Cespedes, or even Brandon Moss (with a RHP vs. Moss) every time in the fifth inning in a second and third situation and two out  to geto Lowrie right now. There is something about the postseason that makes some good hitters get tight, or something. Remember Barry Bonds except for 2002? I'd have to play that angle if I were managing. 
 
If Farrell has a weakness as a manager, to me, it's definitely in game managing. 
 
Ed., horse buried very deep now. 

 

[joe dokes]

In the heat of the moment in the game thread I criticized Napoli for not throwing home in that situation.  It got less attention when it proved to not be the winning run, but you have to think against Rodney, your chances of winning drop pretty significantly when that run crosses the plate, and attempting to get the out at the plate is probably the smart move even if only 50/50.
 
We don't know what grip Napoli had, but here is a still from after Napoli had gotten up and set his feet to throw, and I think with a catcher's arm and a force play at the plate there is a 50/50 shot to get him, and the right play would have been trying.
 

 
Actually, from that, his shot at a 3-6-3 looks about the same as the 3-2 force. But when I saw this replay last night, I thought "Fuld running, that may have been too close and failure means a crooked number." So I thought taking the out was ok there.
 
 
This also speaks to something I (and others I;m sure) have mentioned before.
Napoli is much better than anyone thought with the glove. But elite defensive 1Bmen make their money by not being afraid to throw. Its what made Youkilis so good. And, going back in time, its what made Keith Hernandez about the best I've ever seen. If you rotate the IF on that play, and make Napoli an experienced 3Bman, and a runner going to second is the same distance from second as Fuld is from home in that shot, the experienced 3Bman makes that throw to second; a less experienced 3Bman might not.