Let's Talk about the manager -- The John Farrell Thread
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We didn't agree with Gump's in-game in 2003 and Theo and his bosses agreed (not that Farrell is in any danger of getting fired).rembrat said:
Not deep enough... In my opinion this was one of the worst managerial decisions I can ever remember. Yes, it was that bad. You have first base open, two outs, an 81% win expectancy at the moment Longoria walks to the plate - and you elect to pitch to him? Over Wil Myers? The 22 year old deer in the headlights who is 0-12 in the series? Man, talk about letting your opponent off the mat.Al Zarilla said:
Here is a question: What if Longo gets the IBB and Myers goes yard and the Rays get the lead? Are you guys content that Longo didn't beat you and how do you feel about Farrell putting the go-ahead run on base? Honest answers. Please. I'm truly curious about the thought process here.
I don't know if I would have IBB'd, but I probably would not have given him anything in the strikezone. Maybe that was the plan and Buchholz failed completely.
rembrat said:
I oppose walking him for this possible result among others. The "don't let him beat you" deals with approach, and I would have liked a better pitch in that situation from Clay. The dropoff from Longo to Myers isn't severe (read: Barry Bonds-ish) enough to merit middle innings bases loading tying run on base to face a hitter with a near identical OPS+ this season.
I would like better pitching there, but I would have been against the IBB even if Myers had followed with a grounder to short. The results don't impact my feeling on the strategy there given the situation and the two hitters in question.
smastroyin said:
No, the pitch was called as an inside changeup, and the target was set up relatively close to where the pitch was thrown (low and inside). It is a pitch that doesn't have much room to be a ball without becoming a useless pitch, so while it might have been nice had it worked and been a little out of the zone, it doesn't have the same pitch-around-ability of a curve down or a slider away. It also is a more homer prone pitch when a mistake is made and it gets too much of the plate.
With a runner on third and a decent eye by Longoria you can't just bounce four and hope he acts like Delmon Young. Your strategy there is to try to get him out with pitchers' pitches and a base empty, and hopefully use the big part of the yard in any case. I think given that, working low and away with breaking balls and fastballs just off the plate and making sure any changeup thrown is out of the zone (a much less wild-pitch-likely waste) would have been better than either an IBB or the actual pitch selection and execution.
In one of the rare moments of insight from the announcers last night, I think it was Smoltz who suggested before the at bat began that Longoria was likely to be looking for the change-up early in the count because that's what they got him out with in the previous AB. Lo and behold, Longoria is sitting dead red on the inside changeup. I think that changeup, even in that spot, is a great pitch but not on a 0-1 count.
I wouldn't have walked him, but I certainly would have stayed away as much as I could. Make him hit one the other way if he's going to hurt you at all. Inside anything was just playing into exactly what Longoria wanted to do...turn on one and hit it out.
I wouldn't have walked him, but I certainly would have stayed away as much as I could. Make him hit one the other way if he's going to hurt you at all. Inside anything was just playing into exactly what Longoria wanted to do...turn on one and hit it out.
koufax37 said:
This is basically it. And it wasn't that bad a pitch; just a little up. If you look at the replay, you can see that he came within 3-4 inches of hitting the target; unfortunately those 3-4 inches made the difference between a pitch at the knees that Longoria might have topped to the infield or missed entirely, and a pitch he was able to golf out of the park.
Yes. I'm totally fine with that. The odds are significantly better that Longo hits a HR there rather than Myers. One guy has done it a million times - 9 career post season homeruns (not to mention 6, yes 6, homeruns in games 162 - including game winners in 2011 and 2013) - and countless other examples of being a Red Sox killer. And the other guy, like I said, is 22 years old with 13 career homeruns, is 0-12 in the series, and already showed with the misplay in game 1 that he is clearly letting his nerves get the best of him.rembrat said:
Yes - I can live with the second guy beating me. Not the first.
joe dokes said:
As in posted in the game thread, I wish Napoli had thrown home because even if it's late I think they still could have relayed and got the out at 1B.
koufax37 said:
This is Myers' first postseason rodeo. Do you remember Mo Vaughn's first postseason series? Should not have given Longoria anything to hit.
Regarding Smoltz about Longoria looking for the change. It was about 4.5 inches higher than it should have been. Lots of good MLB hitters can hit that pitch out from Clay whether they were looking for it or not.
I thought Salty/Clay going back to the inner half change-up was the real story of the Longoria at bat. He happened to get him looking with the change in the previous AB, but it was an absolute meatball (a poorly executed pitch in an otherwise beautiful sequence of pitches). Going back to that same pitch two pitches later bit them in the ass.
Rudy Pemberton said:
No guarantees, Rudy, but the guy's so wound up that he's either not sleeping or getting plastered (or both) -- > leg cramps.
Honest question..In your opinion, this was a worst decision than Grady in 2003 or John MacNamera in 86? I think you might be guilty of a little hyberbole there. No matter what happens, the decision was not a series clincher by any means. The Red Sox still have 2 chances to close it out.Bone Chips said:
Bone Chips said:
This is a little insane. Let's just look at the numbers.
Longoria hit a HR in 4.6% of his PAs this season. For his career he's hit a HR in 4.7% of his PAs.
Buchholz this year has allowed a HR 1% of the time (4 out of 416). For his career he's allowed a HR 2.3% of the time (72 out of 3126).
In 41 career PAs against Buchholz Longoria has hit 1 HR. His overall line is .216/.293/.378.
But letting Clay pitch to Longoria up 3 runs in that situation was the worst decision ever?
FWIW, Pedro just said you have to walk Longoria to pitch to Myers. If Pedro says it, I'm on his side.
Well it can't be too insane, because despite all those numbers you're throwing out there Longoria did in fact hit a three run bomb. Question is - why would you allow the other team's best player to beat you in that situation? I just don't get it. People are worried about putting the go ahead run at the plate? Seems to me the 4th run isn't the one that kills you there, it's the first 3. What's especially maddening is that it's not like there was a hot hitter or a proven veteran who was on deck. Wil Meyers is going to be a nice player some day, but Evan Longoria now has almost as many homeruns (10) in the playoffs as Myers has in his entire MLB career (13). Meyers is 0-12 in the series and clearly choking under the pressure - to the point where he is getting dehydrated in an air conditioned stadium! He is actually the one player I want to be up in a pressure situation like that.glennhoffmania said:
Will Meyers may be choking, but dehydration in an indoor stadium does not have anything to do with it. He also may just be 0 for his last 12. Sometimes, 12 at bats is just 12 at bats. And I think Farrell's decision to pitch to Longo given the numbers cited by Glenhoff above is completely defensible. Sometimes you get beat and that's all there is to it. Come back the next day, try again.
adam42381 said:
I know you're kidding (at least in part) but Pedro is also a crazy person. Which is also part of why he was such a great starting pitcher.
Aces are crazy people. Prima donnas. Think they can get anyone out at any time. You want your pitcher to believe that, even when it's not true. You pull him or make him walk a guy when you know it might not be. You definitely don't always trust all their calls.*
*Caveat: Unless the fighter pilot is Lonestar and is leading the Americans against an alien invasion to save the human race.
One other thing .. Pedro , being a superstar,obviously buys into the concept of superstars being treated as something greater than their stats. Longo vs. Myers is an excellent example of that. Longoria is a superstar .. Who just happens to have had a year approximately the same as a rookie. Other than thinking Myers will somehow crumple in the hot glare of the playoffs what is there in the difference between the two guys that you would walk one to face the other?Reverend said:
In Pedro's world his peers are somehow gifted with superhuman powers that raise them above mere mortals like Myers. ( until Myers hits a few post season taters and then HE becomes the guy you don't let beat you)
IMO, IBBing Longo wouldn't have been terrible but I wouldn't have done it. Pitching around Longoria was also problematic as he has massive power to the opposite field.
The other quibble I had was burning through both Breslow and Tazawa in the 7th. They are the only really trustworthy relievers Farrell has .. And this lead directly to Morales in the 8th..
And I would have brought in Uehera in the 8th when they had 1st and 2nd .. You have to use your best in the highest leverage moments.
I don't want to make an emotional post, but I am pretty sure I just saw a hit and run with Ross at the plate and Nava on base?
I may be drunk, though.
To be fair, he was great with the pen. I thought he was quick with the trigger on a well-rested Peavy, but Breslow was the balls. What a great performance by the pitching all around. Just as poor pitching makes a manager looks bad, this pitching makes everyone look brilliant.
Though I agree with Stitch that it's strange to get one out from Taz and not go straight to Koji. But it worked, so fuck yeah.
I may be drunk, though.
To be fair, he was great with the pen. I thought he was quick with the trigger on a well-rested Peavy, but Breslow was the balls. What a great performance by the pitching all around. Just as poor pitching makes a manager looks bad, this pitching makes everyone look brilliant.
Though I agree with Stitch that it's strange to get one out from Taz and not go straight to Koji. But it worked, so fuck yeah.
I think he figured that the top of the order was going to be a high stress situation and had faith in Tazawa to get the #9 pinch hitter.Stitch01 said:
The fact is, if we're going to win the whole thing, we need good Taz. Giving him a situation to succeed in tonight was a good move, IMO.
Stitch01 said:
If they're winning anything this postseason they're not doing it without Tazawa, especially when Breslow is over an inning in. He's going to have to pitch hi-lev innings sometime.
X gets in the game and puts up an excellent AB (two of them, actually.) Can we please see some more of him against lefties?
Sure, but Koji is the better pitcher and rested. I think if Joyce gets a hit they're going to Koji anyways. The high stress point above is a good one, but going to be higher stress if Joyce reaches.
Thought pulling Peavy early was curious too, but that worked like a charm and sure as shit beats pulling him too late, so point Farrell
Thought pulling Peavy early was curious too, but that worked like a charm and sure as shit beats pulling him too late, so point Farrell
Farrell managed a great game. Going to Breslow in that spot after some loud outs off Peavy, then sticking with him thru Longoria and Jennings is a better approach then playing match ups. He opened himself up to second guessing letting the lefty face Longo.
And he deserves credit for changing his mind on XB for Drew, the other big decision on which the game turned. Would have been easier to double down on Drew v McGee. Xander sitting on the bench might give some managers some 2nd thoughts before running a lefty reliever at Drew.
And he deserves credit for changing his mind on XB for Drew, the other big decision on which the game turned. Would have been easier to double down on Drew v McGee. Xander sitting on the bench might give some managers some 2nd thoughts before running a lefty reliever at Drew.
Farrell was outstanding tonight, pinch hitting for Salty and Drew back to back was gutsy. Gomes didn't do anything, but it was also the right move. And props on sticking with Breslow.
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SoxScout said:
rembrat said:
Not just "a playoff Farrell." A Farrell who is willing to try something different, even if it gives fuel to second-guessers. I dont think we should underestimate the value of that quality in a third-year manager. It bodes well, IMO for a long career.
He made a defensible, but certainly questionable (non) move or 2 on Monday. It (they) didn't work. So he did something
different, knowing full well that it could be interpreted as "I admit I made a mistake," which in the largely testosterone-fueled world of sports commentary, is nothing but a sign of "weakness." (I'm not looking for a debate about whether Monday's moves were "mistakes" or just "moves that didn't work").
You know who wouldn't do "something different" if "this way" didn't work? Dusty Baker wouldn't. Nor would Ned Yost or Ron Washington.
The confidence and emotional maturity that Farrell showed when he changed his mind on Drew-Bogaerts and admitted it openly to the world was tremendous and so good to see. Not getting caught up in "sticking to my guns" is a rare trait, and I'm glad it's not something Farrell clings to. A far cry from Jimy Williams' type "Manager's Decision" way of being. Or Grady's abject and stubborn stupidity on the Pedro Boner.
I would love to know what the process was there. Did Farrell just have an epiphany? Did this result from conversations with Lovullo and the other coaches? Did Ben or Larry offer a view? I doubt we'll know this any time soon, if ever, and I hope I'm wrong on that.
Last, I wonder what this means going forward. The logical extension of Farrell's decision last night would be to start Bogaerts against lefties. JF cited Drew's troubles against southpaws and Xander's maturity. Neither of those things is changing any time soon, and there's no real difference between the first inning and the middle part of the game.
I would love to know what the process was there. Did Farrell just have an epiphany? Did this result from conversations with Lovullo and the other coaches? Did Ben or Larry offer a view? I doubt we'll know this any time soon, if ever, and I hope I'm wrong on that.
Last, I wonder what this means going forward. The logical extension of Farrell's decision last night would be to start Bogaerts against lefties. JF cited Drew's troubles against southpaws and Xander's maturity. Neither of those things is changing any time soon, and there's no real difference between the first inning and the middle part of the game.
It doesn't look like they're going to get any lefty starters in the ALCS. I don't think the Tigers even have one, the A's do, but he doesn't seem to be one of their 4 best.
TheoShmeo said:
The one real difference might be the defensive difference between Drew and Bogaerts for the first 5 or 6 or 7 innings. Given how good Drew has been, I think its pretty likely that defensively Drew > Bogaerts. Only Farrell "knows" how much better.
As for why the strategy change. I doubt it was as complicated as coaches' input or front office meddling. The choices were pretty stark -- cut the red wire or the blue wire The red wire didn't work, so he tried the blue one next time. I guess if you think that PHing for Drew Monday was an absolute no-brainer, you might not agree with the analogy.
Just for the sake of consistency, I am going to be a bit critical here.
First, it shows good character to change his mind, but this is not somehow validation for being so stubborn about the Drew thing in the first place. Regardless, good to see.
Second, I thought he pulled Peavy too early. Peavy was not struggling and had handled Loney Clark. The problem with doing this early is that it creates a situation where you have to use at least three relievers even without any kind of matchup advantage, which increases the chances (ask Maddon) that you'll run into someone who doesn't really have it that night.
Third, A hit and run with Ross (not exactly Mr. contact) and Nava (not exactly Mr. baserunning guru)? Better than a bunt, though.
Fourth, like others I'm not big on Taz of Uehara in this specific situation, even though I know they need Taz.
On the plus side:
First, he did finally make the decision to PH Bogaerts which of course you could argue won the Red Sox the game.
Second, it was great to see Breslow brought in to face Loney rather than Morales, and then having Breslow in for 1.2 covered for the early hook on Peavy. This could have gone horribly awry if he had tried to steal some outs from the back end of the pen in the 6th and 7th before going to Breslow/Taz/Ue and he didn't take that chance.
Third, I have said this before but people still seem to miss the point of why I post in here. The easiest things to talk about WRT managing are probably the least important (except when they are really really really bad). The most important part of a manager's job is boring to talk about. And John Farrell does that well. This team is loose, plays with confidence, trust each other and their manager. Being a great in game manager isn't a requirement of being a great manager. So great job John Farrell and congratulations on making the ALCS.
First, it shows good character to change his mind, but this is not somehow validation for being so stubborn about the Drew thing in the first place. Regardless, good to see.
Second, I thought he pulled Peavy too early. Peavy was not struggling and had handled Loney Clark. The problem with doing this early is that it creates a situation where you have to use at least three relievers even without any kind of matchup advantage, which increases the chances (ask Maddon) that you'll run into someone who doesn't really have it that night.
Third, A hit and run with Ross (not exactly Mr. contact) and Nava (not exactly Mr. baserunning guru)? Better than a bunt, though.
Fourth, like others I'm not big on Taz of Uehara in this specific situation, even though I know they need Taz.
On the plus side:
First, he did finally make the decision to PH Bogaerts which of course you could argue won the Red Sox the game.
Second, it was great to see Breslow brought in to face Loney rather than Morales, and then having Breslow in for 1.2 covered for the early hook on Peavy. This could have gone horribly awry if he had tried to steal some outs from the back end of the pen in the 6th and 7th before going to Breslow/Taz/Ue and he didn't take that chance.
Third, I have said this before but people still seem to miss the point of why I post in here. The easiest things to talk about WRT managing are probably the least important (except when they are really really really bad). The most important part of a manager's job is boring to talk about. And John Farrell does that well. This team is loose, plays with confidence, trust each other and their manager. Being a great in game manager isn't a requirement of being a great manager. So great job John Farrell and congratulations on making the ALCS.
While Peavy had retired Loney twice(?) going into that at bat they have a ton of history going back to their NL West days. Loney is hitting .303/.324/.636 in 34 PA with 7 of those 10 hits going for extra bases, 2 HRs and 5 2B. In his 1st AB of the game he sent a screamer to the wall that I thought was gone off the bat.
At that point Farrell is trying to keep the 2nd run from scoring and as others have noted when Peavy loses it he really loses it. I had no problem with it.
At that point Farrell is trying to keep the 2nd run from scoring and as others have noted when Peavy loses it he really loses it. I had no problem with it.
I believe Farrell described the decision process quite well when it came to having Drew face McGee in Game 3; it was a judgment that Drew would be more likely to get on base, given McGee's reverse splits and the lack of MLB data on Bogaerts. The situation was different in Game 4: the Sox were down a run.
I don't believe bringing in Tazawa was a mistake; he's pitched well, and he's had plenty of rest.
Peavy hadn't pitched in 13 days, which may have contributed to the quick hook. Farrell said multiple times that they thought he was cooked; the margin of error in that situation was tiny. Better to take a chance and use one of their more effective late inning relievers in that high leverage situation.
Happy that the team is going back to Fenway to prepare for Game 1 instead of Game 5.
I don't believe bringing in Tazawa was a mistake; he's pitched well, and he's had plenty of rest.
Peavy hadn't pitched in 13 days, which may have contributed to the quick hook. Farrell said multiple times that they thought he was cooked; the margin of error in that situation was tiny. Better to take a chance and use one of their more effective late inning relievers in that high leverage situation.
Happy that the team is going back to Fenway to prepare for Game 1 instead of Game 5.
I agree Breslow was certainly a better bet against Loney in the 6th than Peavy. Peavy pitched a great game but there were more than a few loud outs there. No sense in trying to squeeze one or two more ABs out of him there.
Also agree that Farrell's deserves full credit for the chemistry in the clubhouse, whatever its importance may be.
The Tazawa move was a little curious and the Ross hit and run incomprehensible, but still he managed a solid game.
Also of note was his decision not to PH for Nava against the lefty in the 4th or the 6th, knowing that Maddon would have to come back with righty relievers later. PH Gomes for Salty vs the LHP, then insert Ross for defense, is a good move there.
Also agree that Farrell's deserves full credit for the chemistry in the clubhouse, whatever its importance may be.
The Tazawa move was a little curious and the Ross hit and run incomprehensible, but still he managed a solid game.
Also of note was his decision not to PH for Nava against the lefty in the 4th or the 6th, knowing that Maddon would have to come back with righty relievers later. PH Gomes for Salty vs the LHP, then insert Ross for defense, is a good move there.
The first three hitters of that inning all ripped balls off Peavy, each on a poorly located pitch. I thought the hook was perfect.
The hit and run was definitely puzzling.
I love that he stuck with Breslow to start the 8th. Some managers reflexively wouldn't do that.
The hit and run was definitely puzzling.
I love that he stuck with Breslow to start the 8th. Some managers reflexively wouldn't do that.
smastroyin said:
[SIZE=10pt]This. We have only little glimpses through the media as to how Farrell manages this clubhouse, but the results absolutely speak for themselves. ‘Relentless’ is a word that is in danger of being overused with this team, but it fits so well – not only in-game but in the bigger picture as well. It is a marvel to look back at late August and September and see how this team fended off all comers and took every opportunity to put their divisional opponents in their place. The Rays were a dangerous opponent, both in terms of the gauntlet they had run just to get to the ALDS and in their familiarity with the Sox, but Farrell had a game plan ready to grab the early series lead and then kept his team focused to overcome a frustrating loss and play an inspired game to win the series. The Sox relentlessly outplayed Tampa and the Rays had to have almost everything go right in game 3 just to avoid a sweep.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=10pt]I’ve watched baseball long enough to appreciate that it is less a blueprint and more a strange alchemy when it comes to building and sustaining winning teams. How many Sox teams looked so great on paper before the season and proceeded to fall apart? Yes, so many things have gone right to put the 2013 Sox on this road, but it also takes JF and his staff to take advantage of those talents and mesh the personalities, first rebuilding the clubhouse culture after the Fifth’s disastrous tenure and then keeping everyone on track day after day to be ready to take advantage of the opportunities at hand. This aspect of managerial talent is easy to take for granted and almost impossible to measure, but I’m convinced it has played a crucial role in allowing this team to thrive and put itself in a position to win a championship. [/SIZE]
I assume staying out of yet another double play was a major part of the thought process. Maybe he thought sending Nava would have the advantage of surprise, although I hope not.Morgan said:
A bunt would have made more sense to me, although I haven't been thoroughly briefed on Ross' bunting abilities. Pinch-running Berry for Nava might have been the best play there, since you have Carp on the bench to hit for Berry if it gets that far and Maddon had already burned most of his 37 lefties by that point. But perhaps with one out already in the inning and Ross at the plate, it didn't seem worth the required tinkering.
Pinch running Berry for Nava would have been over managing. I had no problem with being aggressive at that point, because we were playing with house money. If Ross makes poor contract, you stay out of double play, If he makes good contract, you could potentially end up with an extra run. If you get caught, you make an out, which is OK, because chances are good that Ross makes an out anyway. You are trading one out for another, for potentially a bigger gain.
Just to echo what others have already said, Peavy had a noticeable drop in effectiveness by the 5th inning. Even though he was only around 70-75 pitches, there had been some loud outs in the building (insert empty stadium-echo joke here) and a couple shots to the warning track. Based on Lackey and Peavy's performance, I tend to agree with Lexra's interpretation that the long layoff made some SP a little rusty. I was certainly happy with the hook on Peavy, although Breslow's brass huevos make it look even better with hindsight.
Besides the hit and run I don't have many complaints about last night. The hit and run was an awful call though. I'm more curious than anything about the Taz/Koji thing. I figured if he was going to bring in Taz he'd let him finish the inning, or go at least until he got into some trouble. I didn't understand letting him pitch to one batter, getting him out, and then going to Koji. With his workload lately and at least one off day before they play again, I figured Koji could handle getting 5 outs.
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