Let's Talk about the manager -- The John Farrell Thread

[Bowlerman9]

 
 
One question: how did you work out the "nine times as likely to catch the ball" part? I was trying to work out the percentages and then compare them but figured it would be easier to just ask.

 
2)  It's caught and Nava, having played to tag, advances, RE of runner on third and 2 out is .373, a .031 increase.
4)  It lands and Nava, having played to tag, can only advance one base.  RE of runner on second and third with one out is 1.438, a .276 decrease
 
It's .276 divided by .031 = 8.90, or roughly 9x.

 

[Reverend]

There it is!--thanks. I got distracted comparing tag to not-tag as opposed to taking the tag as the condition. Thanks.
 
It's kind of ironic that this is actually so defensive by the numbers when Farrell's rap is one of being aggressive on the basepaths, yeah? These seems like a classic case of where numbers could help systemize things--if he wants to be aggressive, be systematically aggressive.

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Kudos to Farrell for sending Snyder in to PH for Holt in the 7th. Already short one position player (Nava on leave) to start and having lost Victorino on the ejection, I think most managers would have let Holt hit to keep Snyder in reserve on the bench for later. But Farrell saw he would either get Snyder to face the LHP or force Porter one step closer to running out of pitchers, which is how it played out.

 
Good observation.  In large part that game was won because they worked deep into the nougatty center that is the Astros bullpen - sending Snyder up helped with that.
 
And since I'm here, shame on Victorino for making all these gyrations necessary.  Getting tossed in that situation, on what was clearly a difficult judgment call by the 3rd base ump, is just stupid.  And it nearly cost them the game.

 

[smastroyin]

Well, to be fair to the world at large, it actually seems pretty rare that we have back to back doubles without a run scoring.  In fact noone even tracks scoring from second on a double.  Which may make it an irrelevant rant on my part...or perhaps make it noteworthy that the Red Sox have had it happen twice this year that I can remember, and would have likely had it a third time (in a sense, Drew would have been held to the longest single ever since there were two runners on) if Drew's ball had hit the wall and bounced to an OF.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Can we "community rate" the specific Nava play, Tangotiger-style?
 
I'd say that off the bat the drive had a 65% chance of being a homer, a 25% chance of being caught, and a 10% chance of being a base hit.
 
Assuming the base hit happens, I'd say the chance that the ball would have that odd hop off the pad and come right to the fielder (preventing Nava from scoring) as it actually did is low -- maybe 15%.
 
So, the probability of witnessing what actually transpired is roughly (0.10)*(0.15)= 1.5 times out of 100 events.

 

[Reverend]

Can we "community rate" the specific Nava play, Tangotiger-style?
 
I'd say that off the bat the drive had a 65% chance of being a homer, a 25% chance of being caught, and a 10% chance of being a base hit.
 
Assuming the base hit happens, I'd say the chance that the ball would have that odd hop off the pad and come right to the fielder (preventing Nava from scoring) as it actually did is low -- maybe 15%.
 
So, the probability of witnessing what actually transpired is roughly (0.10)*(0.15)= 1.5 times out of 100 events.

 
I question the 15% part. I mean, yes, that's unlikely, but given a base hit, that the base hit might carom off the wall in beneficial fashion to the fielder--I dunno if I'd say the "lucky bounce" percentage would be that low.

 

[Harry Hooper]

 
I question the 15% part. I mean, yes, that's unlikely, but given a base hit, that the base hit might carom off the wall in beneficial fashion to the fielder--I dunno if I'd say the "lucky bounce" percentage would be that low.

 
What's your estimate, then? I maintain a ball hit that hard over a fielder's head is much more likely to either bounce away at an angle or bounce directly past the oncoming fielder, both of which would require more time to shag down than what we witnessed. That carom came right back to the fielder and was also nicely slowed down due to the odd hop.
 
 
Edit: In other words, there was minimal processing time for the RF to get the throw in. He didn't have to chase after the ball or make a lunging snag of the rebound. It was almost like the second baseman getting a feed from the SS on a DP.

 

[tims4wins]

Can anyone defend leaving Dempster in as long as he did tonight? After the Nunez single I figured he'd be yanked. Nope. Then after the Overbay single I figured he'd be yanked. Nope. It was like watching Grady leave Pedro in. Obviously on a much smaller scale, but still. I don't get it.

 

[Cuzittt]

Can anyone defend leaving Dempster in as long as he did tonight? After the Nunez single I figured he'd be yanked. Nope. Then after the Overbay single I figured he'd be yanked. Nope. It was like watching Grady leave Pedro in. Obviously on a much smaller scale, but still. I don't get it.


It's not the first time he's done this with Dempster either. And it keeps costing the Sox.

 

[Plympton91]

And thenn once again, he brings a minor leaguer into a close game in which they have a lead. Drake Britton is not a major league ready pitcher. He does not have the command necessary to consistently get good hitters out. It is baffling to me that they continue to run him out there. Of course it would help if the gm could manage to win a single goddamn trade for a reliever, with Matt Thornton the latest failure to connect.

 

[Brianish]

I tend to assume the managers and coaches have access to information we don't, and give them a little bit of rope, but I honestly don't understand how you watch the guy we watched all night, and then decide to leave him out there over 100 pitches after giving up a shot to dead center field. Never mind everything that came after. 

 

[smastroyin]

Britton has been one of their better pitchers and Breslow has been used a lot and it's only the sixth inning.
 
It's up to Britton to get the out, but IMO Farrell gave Dempster at least one and maybe two batters too many because that LLL portion of the Yankee lineup looked too juicy to him.  Game management is important, but giving up runs is worse.

 

[judyb]

Britton has been one of their better pitchers and is the only lefty at the moment because of all the injuries.
 
It's up to Britton to get the out, but IMO Farrell gave Dempster at least one and maybe two batters too many because that LLL portion of the Yankee lineup looked too juicy to him.  Game management is important, but giving up runs is worse.

If Morales isn't more prepared to handle a situation like that than a rookie who'd always been a starter up until a few weeks ago, then he probably should still be on the DL instead of taking up a roster spot. 

 

[Al Zarilla]

Can anyone defend leaving Dempster in as long as he did tonight? After the Nunez single I figured he'd be yanked. Nope. Then after the Overbay single I figured he'd be yanked. Nope. It was like watching Grady leave Pedro in. Obviously on a much smaller scale, but still. I don't get it.

Smaller scale, yes, but I was more astounded tonight because you always felt Pedro could pull it off and get out of the inning with a lead. Dempster, I wouldn't entrust a lead over the Marlins with him. 

 

[Plympton91]

I don't understand the idea that Britton has been one one of the better relievers. He had some lucky outings early one but has been giving up runs regularly for 2 weeks. His ERA for August was 9.00 before tonight.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Workman is great, because he's a guy who can come in and pitch 2-3 innings in games just like this a couple times a week, which is really what this pen needs. Dempster was not fooling anyone, and it really seemed like the perfect time to let Workman play that role, or at least let him attempt it. I think a lot of reaction to managers in-game decisions can be hindsight, but I really think Farrell fucked this one up pretty good. In the least, he clearly left Dempster on there at least 2 or 3 batters too long.

 

[Toe Nash]

In hindsight, you bring in Workman to start the 6th and try to get at least two innings out of him. Farrell got greedy, it happens. Hell, the MFY did the same thing with Sabathia, leaving him in to face Ellsbury when he was fatigued; difference was he got the job done.

I'd say the difference is that Sabathia has had a much better career than Dempster. Both have struggled recently but you can give more rope to the guy who's the highest-paid pitcher in baseball.

 

[soxhop411]

I think Farrell pulled Dempster late in this game, and it cost us the game, and I hope that Farrell learned from his mistake today.
But I constantly see people saying (here and other places) that he is a terrible in game manager, with one of the reasons being he pulls his starters late. While that may be true in some way,  I seem to remember Tito (non playoff Tito) pulling his starters late also, Heck if you watch some Indians games, he is still doing that a LOT this season.  
 
 Good in game mangers seem to be rare in baseball today as other then Joe Maddon and Bruce Bochy  I really cant think of 3 other managers who are "good in game managers" 

 

[ShaneTrot]

I think Farrell pulled Dempster late in this game, and it cost us the game, and I hope that Farrell learned from his mistake today.
But I constantly see people saying (here and other places) that he is a terrible in game manager, with one of the reasons being he pulls his starters late. While that may be true in some way,  I seem to remember Tito (non playoff Tito) pulling his starters late also, Heck if you watch some Indians games, he is still doing that a LOT this season.  
 
 Good in game mangers seem to be rare in baseball today as other then Joe Maddon and Bruce Bochy  I really cant think of 3 other managers who are "good in game managers" 

With the way the bullpen pitched after Dempster was pulled, if you were manager would you have pulled him earlier? Tazawa, Breslow and Uehara are money, everyone else is young or AAAA fodder. The bullpen is thin, the starters have to give more.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Some of this is hindsight I guess.  Dempster came out with only 4 on the board and 1 GIDP from being out of the inning, if Britton does his job, its a different ball game.   Also, the way CC was throwing, you kind of expected to score a few more runs.

 

[Cuzittt]

Some of this is hindsight I guess.  Dempster came out with only 4 on the board and 1 GIDP from being out of the inning, if Britton does his job, its a different ball game. 


Obviously giving up a triple to Gardner is about the worst outcome one can get... but I don't think you can expect to get a double play in that situation either. Not with Gardner at the plate.

 

[MartyBarrettMVP]

The odds that Britton with his 9.00 ERA would get out of a bases loaded one out jam were pretty long and Farrell had to know that.

 

[joe dokes]

Britton has been one of their better pitchers and Breslow has been used a lot and it's only the sixth inning.
 
It's up to Britton to get the out, but IMO Farrell gave Dempster at least one and maybe two batters too many because that LLL portion of the Yankee lineup looked too juicy to him.  Game management is important, but giving up runs is worse.

 
 
Actually, to my eyes, Britton's arm isn't bouncing back in a relief role like Workman's is. He had to regress some, but his last half-dozen appearances have been a lot less sharp than his first.

 

[Reverend]

Can anyone defend leaving Dempster in as long as he did tonight? After the Nunez single I figured he'd be yanked. Nope. Then after the Overbay single I figured he'd be yanked. Nope. It was like watching Grady leave Pedro in. Obviously on a much smaller scale, but still. I don't get it.

 
One of the things that Farrell thinks in terms of is not only how many pitches a pitcher has thrown but how many jams a pitcher has pitched through. He says that once a pitcher has pitched through three jams, he's done; it's just too exhausting. It's arguable that he pulled him last night in the middle of the third jam when he realized he wasn't going to get out of it.
 
I'm not saying I agree or disagree, just that he's stated that as part of his approach.

 

[lexrageorge]

I think Farrell pulled Dempster late in this game, and it cost us the game, and I hope that Farrell learned from his mistake today.
But I constantly see people saying (here and other places) that he is a terrible in game manager, with one of the reasons being he pulls his starters late. While that may be true in some way,  I seem to remember Tito (non playoff Tito) pulling his starters late also, Heck if you watch some Indians games, he is still doing that a LOT this season.  
 
 Good in game mangers seem to be rare in baseball today as other then Joe Maddon and Bruce Bochy  I really cant think of 3 other managers who are "good in game managers" 

 
I do agree that leaving Dempster in for so long was a mistake.  
 
However, I do recall threads where Maddon left his starters in "too late" as well; I think there's little actual evidence to support the claim that Maddon is truly a better "in game manager" than Farrell.  Also, I'm not sure I see that many folks claim that Farrell is terrible; this is a thread talking about Farrell's moves in hindsight, and it's almost always the so-called "bad" moves that will generate the most thread traffic.  
 
In a lot of cases when it comes to removing starters, what we think are "no brainer" situations are not truly "no brainers".  It was an active weekend for the pen. 

 

[rmurph3]

The odds that Britton with his 9.00 ERA would get out of a bases loaded one out jam were pretty long and Farrell had to know that.

 
Or, luckily for all of us, Farrell isn't making decisions based on ERA, especially one that features cherry-picked endpoints.
 
Britton was brought in to face three lefties. In 33 PA vs. LH batters (including last night), he has 10 K/3 BB, and 9 hits. Yes, he gave the kid a tall order and he didn't rise to the occasion, but I don't think you can reasonably argue that it was an inappropriate use of Britton, given the alternatives. As others have pointed out, if you find fault with the way Farrell managed the inning, the error probably occurred before Britton entered.

 

[MartyBarrettMVP]

That's what I meant to say -- I was emphasizing more that Farrell waited until the bases were loaded rather than his use of Britton.  I think it would have been a tall order for anybody else to get out of that inning unscathed.

 

[zimmerolls]

If Morales isn't more prepared to handle a situation like that than a rookie who'd always been a starter up until a few weeks ago, then he probably should still be on the DL instead of taking up a roster spot. 
 

 
Agree...Britton seems to soil his pants still under certain circumstances.

 

[jaimecohenl]

I also tought Ferrel messed up last night by bringing in Morales to face what would be Reynolds PHing instead of sticking with Workman against Overbay or even walking Overbay to pitch to Stewart, since coming back Morales has been absolutly terrible against RHB,

 

[TheYellowDart5]

If every question at tonight's post-game press conference isn't "What in God's holy name are you doing bringing in the reliever with arguably the worst control on the roster into a tie game with the bases loaded," then every single beatwriter should be fired on the spot.
 
Farrell's bullpen management has gotten so bizarre lately that I'm beginning to wonder if he's doing this on purpose to show up Cherington.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

You've got to use your best reliever in the toughest situation, especially if that situation is bases loaded in a tie game in the 9th. Shouldn't matter if it's the closer, shouldn't matter if it's on the road. Bringing in a pitcher who hasn't pitched in a game in weeks and who has had a history of trouble throwing strikes is maddening. If Uehara wasn't going to come in, why wasn't it Workman, who has shown that he can be effective out of the 'pen and is a strike thrower?

 

[bosockboy]

Usually two sides to every coin, but just can't see one there. Barring an unknown Koji injury or illness, there's no defense for that.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

Brian MacPherson ‏@brianmacp
1m
Farrell said he was choosing Villarreal over Workman. Uehara wasn't a consideration for him there.

 
Going to suggest it's not a good idea for Farrell to manage these games while blackout drunk.

 

[NWsoxophile]

Usually two sides to every coin, but just can't see one there. Barring an unknown Koji injury or illness, there's no defense for that.

Even if Koji was unavailable, any other available reliever would have been far the better choice than Villarael. That was just an indefensible decision by Farrell.

 

[curly2]

It's brutal managing to bring in a guy with brutal control to make his Red Sox debut in a spot where a walk loses the game.

It's also brutal to lose a one-run game and not have Ortiz bat.

And wasting Workman to get two outs with a 7-0 lead the night before set up the whole bullpen debacle tonight. Workman's a rookie and no sure thing, but he is a strike-thrower and would at least make them earn it.

 

[BucketOBalls]

Even if Koji was unavailable, any other available reliever would have been far the better choice than Villarael. That was just an indefensible decision by Farrell.

 
That was about as close to a deliberate loss as I've seen really.

 

[nazz45]

 
 
Going to suggest it's not a good idea for Farrell to manage these games while blackout drunk.
 

I have to assume Workman was unavailable due to working the previous two nights. The problem is, why was Workman pitching in a 7-0 game last night, forcing Villareal to pitch in a 2-2, bases loaded, two outs situation tonight. Have to optimize the usage patterns of your better relievers a little better than that.

 

[soxhop411]

could they be trying to protect Koji given his injury concerns?

 

[radsoxfan]

Even forgetting about the Koji option......
 
If Workman was available, and Villareal was chosen over him, that's simply managing malpractice.  For one hitter, with the bases loaded 2 outs in in the bottom of the 9th, you can't bring in someone with notoriously horrendous control.  Mindbogglingly moronic.  Why does he talk so reasonably, and act so foolishly?

 

[soxhop411]

Even forgetting about the Koji option......
 
If Workman was available, and Villareal was chosen over him, that's simply managing malpractice.  For one hitter, with the bases loaded 2 outs in in the bottom of the 9th, you can't bring in someone with notoriously horrendous control.  Mindbogglingly moronic.  Why does he talk so reasonably, and act so foolishly?

Seems like he said on NESN that Wrokman was not available

 

[StuckOnYouk]

By the way, Party of Five is better than Full House

 

[Infield Infidel]

By the way, Party of Five is better than Full House

 
I'll take Perfect Strangers over both of them
 
edit- for some reason I thought PS was in San Fran. no idea why.
 
So I'm changing my vote to Too Close for Comfort, which is a nice segue to Farrell's managing lately

 

[Sampo Gida]

The offense scoring only 2 runs and Victorino catching a foul ball that guaranteed that the tying run scores with a team that had been 0-10 with RISP were factors as well. 
 
JF's adherence to convention and not using his closer on the road in a tie game and instead relying on Morales and Villareal to get the team into extra innings makes me wonder if he did not really want to chance a long extra inning game and burn the pen.
 
I also thought it interesting Farrell did not have Papi PH for Napoli in the top of the 9th against a RHP'er.
 
I wonder if Workman is unavailable because he will make Dempsters next start, or will they just shorten the rotation with the off days?

 

[twibnotes]

If Farrell knew his only option was Villarreal (a flawed approach imo as i'd rather see uehara get four outs but whatever), shouldn't he at least have the foresight to yank morales before the bases are juiced?

 

[StuckOnYouk]

 
I'll take Perfect Strangers over both of them
 
edit- for some reason I thought PS was in San Fran. no idea why.
 
So I'm changing my vote to Too Close for Comfort

 
Damn, you're right. I forgot about Too Close for Comfort. The blonde daughter was smoking hot and Ted Knight was Ted Knight. Not to mention Jim J Bullock.
 
 Party of Five had Jennifer Love Hewitt. It deserves to be ahead of Full House. And no, this has nothing to do with Farrell.

 

[soxhop411]

Wait a second... If Koji pitched, he would be up to bat 4th right? I guess thats why he did not use him he would have had to PH for him right?

 

[barbed wire Bob]

If Workman wasn't available then the only pitchers available were Uehara, Britton and Villarreal. According to the Fangraphs win probability graph, the WE for the Giants was 64.9% after Morales hit Sanchez. At that point I think Farrell came to the conclusion that the game was pretty much lost and it was better to save Uehara and Britton for tomorrow and gamble on Villarreal.

http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2013-08-20&team=Giants&dh=0&season=2013

 

[Al Zarilla]

If Workman wasn't available then the only pitchers available were Uehara, Britton and Villarreal. According to the Fangraphs win probability graph, the WE for the Giants was 64.9% after Morales hit Sanchez. At that point I think Farrell came to the conclusion that the game was pretty much lost and it was better to save Uehara and Britton for tomorrow and gamble on Villarreal.

http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2013-08-20&team=Giants&dh=0&season=2013

But isn't it 64.9% that they'd win sometime, but not necessarily in the ninth, because there were two out (odds are one batter makes an out vs. gets a hit or a walk even if he's Ted Williams). Well, throw in errors, wild pitches, balks, etc, and Ted probably gets it over 50% to get the run in. But, Scutaro is up. Good, but no Williams. Maybe Farrell was fearing the long extra inning game, on the road, etc., etc.and did sort of punt.

 

[cannonball 1729]

Wait a second... If Koji pitched, he would be up to bat 4th right? I guess thats why he did not use him he would have had to PH for him right?

 
Unless he did a double-switch.  Napoli and Ross had both batted in the previous inning, so either one could have been swapped out for Papi or Salty.  I suppose it would have been weird to switch out the catcher with the bases loaded, but there's no reason Koji had to hit.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

I'm really glad I was in bed before this game started. I read the game recap and immediately came to this thread. I think it's time to consider that Farrell just isn't a great manager. Sure, he's good at getting guys motivated and the players like him, but his in-game strategies have cost the team multiple games this year. I want to like the guy, it just seems like his Toronto record may not have been an anomaly.