Let's Talk About the Sale/Grissom Trade Some More

streeter88

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SoSH Member
Apr 2, 2006
2,169
Melbourne, Australia
Glad to help. I don’t know who screwed up more tonight - me or the Sox. So maybe you all needed the light relief.

Edit: What I meant was a fifth starter on a mediocre team might very well be replacement level, i.e. WAR = 0. Originally I was going to add up the combined WAR of Red Sox fifth starters this year starting with Criswell at 1.0. Not sure I would get a positive number all in.
 
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PapnMillsy

New Member
Jun 10, 2023
78
If you don't think Sale being in contention for Cy Young is an outlier outcome, then let us know why.
Sale has been a Cy Young contender more often than not in his career when he’s healthy. In fact, even counting the injury riddled years, he’s finished top 6 in CY voting for exactly half of his career (7/14). Seems to me like it’s more of a coin flip and only that because of his health in recent years.
 

BoSox Rule

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Jul 15, 2005
2,367
Sale has been a Cy Young contender more often than not in his career when he’s healthy. In fact, even counting the injury riddled years, he’s finished top 6 in CY voting for exactly half of his career (7/14). Seems to me like it’s more of a coin flip and only that because of his health in recent years.
Well for the Red Sox, since the beginning of 2018, he’s averaged 76 innings per season. Of course this is an outlier for him right now. It doesn’t mean he wasn’t capable of it but I’m sure as hell glad the Red Sox didn’t even bother waiting to see again.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
7,611
I want to be clear that I was for this trade but my honest preference was to just roll with Chris Sale as a “bonus!” pitcher. Meaning- expect nothing from him- he’ll likely be injured. Don’t plan the rotation around him. I wanted to add Montgomery so yuck but I was imagining:

Montgomery
Bello
Houck
Crawford
Sale/Pivetta

And rolling with a 6 man notation until Sale got injured- likely by the end of ST.
Obviously this would have been incredible and likely in the playoffs but as I wasn’t really COUNTING on Sale- an offer to shore up a weakness seemed like a good idea. I wasn’t sold on the need for a 2B with Story up and looking healthy…. I thought Valdez and/or Rafaela could be league average at 2B and/or SS respectively. When it was announced I would have preferred a mL pitcher
 

TomRicardo

rusty cohlebone
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Feb 6, 2006
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Row 14
You think adding arguably the best pitcher in baseball this year would have potentially only gained them 2 more wins over nearly a full season? He could have replaced Tanner Houck and that still likely adds 2-3 wins to the team, not even counting what Houck would have done to the bullpen, never-mind replacing anyone else in the rotation.
The difference between Chris Sale and Tanner Houck is only 15 ERs in 29 Games which is only 1ish more expected win. Why do you assume Houck would be better in the bullpen?
 

PapnMillsy

New Member
Jun 10, 2023
78
The difference between Chris Sale and Tanner Houck is only 15 ERs in 29 Games which is only 1ish more expected win. Why do you assume Houck would be better in the bullpen?
I’m pretty sure Tanner Houck would have still been starting for the Red Sox even if they kept Sale. Does Whitlock‘s elbow not still explode in this alternate timeline?
 

Bergs

don't Judge me
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Jul 22, 2005
22,592
I have no problem believing that the season Chris Sale put together for ATL would have added several wins to the Red Sox' season when factoring in the bullpen innings saved and the complete offensive droughts we've experienced.

But there is zero evidence the season Chris Sale would have put together for the Red Sox would have been as good as the season he put together for ATL.

So you know...we just don't know.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,782
The difference between Chris Sale and Tanner Houck is only 15 ERs in 29 Games which is only 1ish more expected win. Why do you assume Houck would be better in the bullpen?
27 run difference is just a little bit more than 1 win, in fact it's roughly the 3 win difference that WAR and WPA have as the difference between the 2 this year. Sale probably gives up a few more unearned runs with the Sox than he did with Atlanta, but he's also a much better strikeout pitcher than Houck so that means less balls in play for the defense to not field.

And he would be better in the bullpen than as a starter because every pitcher is better in the bullpen than as a starter when it's their regular role. He would have been in the rotation anyway, it was just to point out that if the difference between Sale and the by far best pitcher on the Sox was roughly 3 wins, plus whatever Houck added replacing the bottom of the pen (probably a lot), that arguing that replacing someone like Crisswell with Sale might only be worth 2 wins is ridiculous.
 

PapnMillsy

New Member
Jun 10, 2023
78
I have no problem believing that the season Chris Sale put together for ATL would have added several wins to the Red Sox' season when factoring in the bullpen innings saved and the complete offensive droughts we've experienced.

But there is zero evidence the season Chris Sale would have put together for the Red Sox would have been as good as the season he put together for ATL.

So you know...we just don't know.
Sale has had excellent seasons here before, I don’t know why we act like it’s impossible for him to do so. 2017 and 2018 were just as good as Sale this year.
 

Bergs

don't Judge me
SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2005
22,592
Sale has had excellent seasons here before, I don’t know why we act like it’s impossible for him to do so. 2017 and 2018 were just as good as Sale this year.
Getting "act like it’s impossible" from "we just don't know" is impressive as hell.