Let's talk about this ballclub.

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Because pitch tipping and sign stealing are both rare phenomena, and the change we're looking at is massive. I'm not sure exactly how rare pitch tipping is, but I am quite sure that the absence of in-game pitch tipping using video — again, pre-game video scouting is still allowed! — is not enough to turn a .774 OPS hitter into a .344 OPS hitter.

I don't agree with the premise that pitch tipping and sign stealing are rare phenomena. Both have been part of the game since the beginning but if this offseason taught us anything its that sign stealing is rampant. We all know the reduction in mound visits was because they got out of hand due to fear of sign stealing.

I maintain that baseball has made the wrong decisions here and a wireless transmitter amongst players on the same team needs to be introduced as a means of conveying your own team's signs.

Limiting access to the video room is the wrong move.

As for your other analysis, I don't disagree with it. I just wanted to make sure that pitch tipping and sign stealing weren't dismissed outright.

 

[grimshaw]

Any player who opts out (financially) in this environment is insane unless they are grossly underpaid. Though I would take some pleasure in Scott Boras whiffing again on JDM.

 

[chawson]

Brian Dozier DFA’d by the Mets today. I’d be curious to bring him in.

It’s hardly a perfect fit with the cluster of guys we’re cycling through second base, but I’ve always wondered what he could do in Fenway with that huge lofty swing, and maybe he plays his way into the bridge job to Downs. I bet he could still pull off a cheap league average season playing in Boston. And while I don’t typically value “veteran presence,” I could see a guy with his approach at the plate paying off for a hitter like Chavis.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Brian Dozier DFA’d by the Mets today. I’d be curious to bring him in.

It’s hardly a perfect fit with the cluster of guys we’re cycling through second base, but I’ve always wondered what he could do in Fenway with that huge lofty swing, and maybe he plays his way into the bridge job to Downs. I bet he could still pull off a cheap league average season playing in Boston. And while I don’t typically value “veteran presence,” I could see a guy with his approach at the plate paying off for a hitter like Chavis.

He's been DFA twice this year and he played so poorly toward the end of last year he only got 7 plate appearances in the postseason for the Nationals (17 games). There's no reason the Sox should be wasting a roster spot on him now.

 

[Humphrey]

He's been DFA twice this year and he played so poorly toward the end of last year he only got 7 plate appearances in the postseason for the Nationals (17 games). There's no reason the Sox should be wasting a roster spot on him now.

Two words- Thirty Three. No way. Take a flyer on some young guy that's flopped, but an older guys gains you nothing.

 

[BroodsSexton]

Am I the only one who doesn’t mind watching a crappy baseball team this year? Seems oddly fitting, and makes me relax rather than stress out over the game.

 

[BaseballJones]

Am I the only one who doesn’t mind watching a crappy baseball team this year? Seems oddly fitting, and makes me relax rather than stress out over the game.

It really is sooooo 2020.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Am I the only one who doesn’t mind watching a crappy baseball team this year? Seems oddly fitting, and makes me relax rather than stress out over the game.

It is kind of liberating in an odd way.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

It is kind of liberating in an odd way.

Yeah, but this isn't just some mediocre team. They're historically bad. There's no pleasure to be had here by just watching baseball because what's they're playing is barely baseball. It's gross incompetence. This isn't an 83 win team from, say, the early 80s; this is a team on pace for 46-116. They're usually down 5 runs by the 3rd inning.

There's no pleasure to be had here. What's liberating is NOT watching them.

Also, there's something to be said for not boosting TV ratings during a year where they're so terrible.

 

[gryoung]

Being a hard-core Sox fan, I’ll always have some interest in them and will watch them. How often and how much certainly depends on their competitiveness. Over the long run for me, they’ve been good more than bad.

For 2020, bring up as many kids as you can. Let them play.

 

[sean1562]

At this point I don’t see why Dalbec isn’t getting playing time. He will be 26 next year. He isn’t going to be some superstar so service time shouldn’t really be a concern

 

[Rovin Romine]

Yeah, but this isn't just some mediocre team. They're historically bad. There's no pleasure to be had here by just watching baseball because what's they're playing is barely baseball. It's gross incompetence. This isn't an 83 win team from, say, the early 80s; this is a team on pace for 46-116. They're usually down 5 runs by the 3rd inning.

There's no pleasure to be had here. What's liberating is NOT watching them.

I can see that.

But I'm not taking the season very seriously. The whole season has a sort of head-in-the-sand/whistling-past-the-graveyard feel re: the entire COVID crisis, strongly flavored with entitled douche-baggery and pure money-grubbing. Beyond that there's the whole mechanical issues of players opting-out, the schedule, the one-off rules for games and playoffs, the almost everyone-plays post season; the ham-fisteness of it all. It reminds me of the not-realness of replacement ball during the strikes and the like, but is actually much worse overall.

As to the Sox themselves, they're crippled re: starters, so I can't see why anyone gets worked up over the forgone conclusions and results. (The MLB coverage of the recent Yanks/Sox series was comically breathless - as though the Yanks weren't playing against a AAA staff.) Furthermore, the Sox have a placeholder manager, and, from what little I've seen, are sort of lamely going through the motions in terms of not-innovating to engage with the fans. I'm glad to see Verdugo isn't Allen Craig 2.0. I'm sad to see Devers/JBJ/Benny sucking wind. But things move in cycles, so maybe it's best to concentrate all their suck in one year - use it to motivate them for a full competetive season with a real pitching staff.

So it's sort of amusing to see them crater, especially if it resets the Lux tax for the 2021 season, and results in a draft pick. No guarantee of either of course, but I don't really see the downside to the epic suck of a half-strength team in a joke season.

(If it was a full season, I'd be upset. . .but this. . .)

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Truly this is where the lack of being able to watch minor league baseball really hurts. I'd love to go see the Sea Dogs this year. Anything not to have to watch the major league product. It's still baseball and there's something cheesily wholesome about a night in a minor league baseball park.

Alas.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Truly this is where the lack of being able to watch minor league baseball really hurts. I'd love to go see the Sea Dogs this year. Anything not to have to watch the major league product. It's still baseball and there's something cheesily wholesome about a night in a minor league baseball park.

Alas.

Yep. It's a measure of how odd things are that I plain forgot to add no minor-league ball/prospect development to the list of the craziness.

If you're jonsing for good baseball in the micro sense - the crisp double play, the solid pitching performance, etc. Do you have an alternate NL team you can follow? Because now would be the time. For me, the macro has changed so much, I just can't seem to take any of it seriously. I mean, the micro is still cool and all, but without the marathon context of the full season (with trade ideas and prospect development and deadlines and endurance), it feels like it's just altheticism without strategy.

 

[chawson]

I agree with Rovin Romine, playing out the MLB season already feels something between surreal and barbaric, which lessens any competitive blow.

One crummy thing about the situation in baseball terms is that Bloom has brought in a number of potentially interesting arms that could be valuable when used in situational roles, as was the practice in Tampa. But the Sox entire staff is stretched so thin that it’s much harder to evaluate them. The team is churning out of exhaustion and desperation, not strategy.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Truly this is where the lack of being able to watch minor league baseball really hurts. I'd love to go see the Sea Dogs this year. Anything not to have to watch the major league product. It's still baseball and there's something cheesily wholesome about a night in a minor league baseball park.

Alas.

These guys are playing and allowing limited fans. NESN even shows a few of their games

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Yeah, but this isn't just some mediocre team. They're historically bad. There's no pleasure to be had here by just watching baseball because what's they're playing is barely baseball. It's gross incompetence. This isn't an 83 win team from, say, the early 80s; this is a team on pace for 46-116. They're usually down 5 runs by the 3rd inning.

There's no pleasure to be had here. What's liberating is NOT watching them.

It certainly doesn't seem like we're watching young talent that's going to be part i

Yeah, but this isn't just some mediocre team. They're historically bad. There's no pleasure to be had here by just watching baseball because what's they're playing is barely baseball. It's gross incompetence. This isn't an 83 win team from, say, the early 80s; this is a team on pace for 46-116. They're usually down 5 runs by the 3rd inning.

Have to agree with a lot of this. Even when they were bad in the past, there was still the interest in seeing the youngsters who, it was hoped, would be part of future success. Some of them turned out to be Phil Plantier or Tim Naehring or Jeff Suppan. But a few turned out to be Nomar or Mo Vaughn or Bruce Hurst. I guess there's Verdugo, but is there any other unknown quantity youngsters on the roster who might be part of the next good Red Sox team? The atrocity of the pitching staff doesn't even have anybody younger than 26. Yikes!

I like having the sound of the game on in the background when I'm doing something else, but I'm not exactly riveted to the set this year.

 

[sodenj5]

Just by the virtue of time, the Sox will have a better staff than next year assuming Sale and Eduardo come back, however they need to go full fire sale and move anything of value this year if possible.

Trading Mookie wasn’t just the start of a one year salary cap reset like most were hoping. The farm system is weak and isn’t supplementing the big league roster like it was in previous years. The pitching development in particular has been beyond awful, which is how you end up with Eovaldi and his contract.

Sox ownership needs to take a hard look in the mirror and commit to the multi year rebuild.

 

[taxmancometh]

Am I the only one who doesn’t mind watching a crappy baseball team this year? Seems oddly fitting, and makes me relax rather than stress out over the game.

I said this exact thing to my wife last night. I'm so happy to be watching baseball and having zero positive expectations seems to make the experience almost pleasant despite their god-awful play.

 

[Max Power]

There's certainly more to talk about with a terrible team than there is if they were merely mediocre.

 

[oumbi]

Am I the only one who doesn’t mind watching a crappy baseball team this year? Seems oddly fitting, and makes me relax rather than stress out over the game.

As long as the Sox play the younger players so we can at least rationalize that something good may come from sucking, then yes, I agree with you.

 

[Humphrey]

There's certainly more to talk about with a terrible team than there is if they were merely mediocre.

Perhaps when and if Sale and ERod come back strong we're back to mediocre. Then we can all speculate about the next Punto trade to get us back to contention.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Perhaps when and if Sale and ERod come back strong we're back to mediocre. Then we can all speculate about the next Punto trade to get us back to contention.

The Sox already did their Punto trade - that was trading Mookie and Price. Assuming the luxury tax resets (fingers and toes crossed) payroll isn't a major concern, it's what they do with that freed up money.

Edit: It's unfortunate of course that this year's free agent class is pretty terrible. Ideally, Bloom is the guy you want to try to find some undervalued diamonds in the rough, but it remains to be seen whether he can pull that off.

 

[Papo The Snow Tiger]

These guys are playing and allowing limited fans. NESN even shows a few of their games
.

I'm going to the game in New Britain tonight just to avoid watching tonight's shitshow on NESN. If I were home I know I'd eventually I'd put on NESN just to get the score and then I'd get sucked in and eventually get pissed off.

 

[jmcc5400]

Do you have an alternate NL team you can follow? Because now would be the time.

I live in Los Angeles and my wife is a Dodgers fan, so for me it's both easy and agonizing. Mookie, Fighting Joe, Dave Roberts and even Tim Neverett. Long championship drought. Screwed by the Astros. Hatred of the MFY (and the chance that they may be the last, best chance to prevent an MFY title). So, there is a lot that is familiar. And the baseball is good.

But, Jesus, as others have said, every time I see Mookie I get this ache in my chest. And it's not easy having casual friends go, "hey, Mookie is a good fielder!" "Hey Mookie, has a great arm!" "Hey, Mookie can really run the bases." Yeah, dude. I know.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

These guys are playing and allowing limited fans. NESN even shows a few of their games

Stumbled on to a broadcast a couple weeks ago and was confused by it. It seemed an odd level of game to be showing a replay of, or so I thought because the fans I could see behind the plate were not wearing masks. Figured out it was live when they showed the dugout where a couple coaches were in masks. Was really surprised with the game being in MA (@ Westfield) that it was happening at all, let alone with spectators. How are they doing it while the big leaguers are playing in front of cardboard cut-outs?

 

[sean1562]

The Sox already did their Punto trade - that was trading Mookie and Price. Assuming the luxury tax resets (fingers and toes crossed) payroll isn't a major concern, it's what they do with that freed up money.

Edit: It's unfortunate of course that this year's free agent class is pretty terrible. Ideally, Bloom is the guy you want to try to find some undervalued diamonds in the rough, but it remains to be seen whether he can pull that off.

Yea, best case scenario next year for this team seems to be gunning for one of the WC spots even if we do spend big. 2022 has some big names on the market but I didn't realize how much money the Astros are gonna have that offseason too. The Dodgers have been able to find guys like Muncy and Turner and the Yanks have done a great job of picking up talent like Urshela, Voit, and Tauchmann to be integral parts of the team. I guess the real question is if they were able to unlock talent when others couldn't or if they just got lucky.

 

[rlsb]

Win tonight in order NOT to make history. Even the 1932 team won 1 game in the Bronx.

 

[DJnVa]

The farm system is weak

Wait until we add Kumar Rocker or Jack Leiter.

 

[jon abbey]

I guess the real question is if they were able to unlock talent when others couldn't or if they just got lucky.

You can add Didi and Hicks and Chad Green to NY's list, I think it's scouting and coaching much more than luck.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Wait until we add Kumar Rocker or Jack Leiter.

They need a lot more than one of those guys but that would be a great place to start. Another player that I would like them to target is Georgia HS position player Brady House who is drawing Kris Bryant comparisons.

 

[sean1562]

You can add Didi and Hicks and Chad Green to NY's list, I think it's scouting and coaching much more than luck.

Yea I would agree with that. Bloom gets a pass this year since they were obviously hamstrung with payroll issues but I hope new leadership is able to have some success in creating a new org strategy moving forward. Ostensibly that is what Bloom was brought on to do so curious to see what he does in the offseason if we do reset the luxury tax penalties.

 

[DJnVa]

They need a lot more than one of those guys but that would be a great place to start. Another player that I would like them to target is Georgia HS position player Brady House who is drawing Kris Bryant comparisons.

Sure they do. But they can only draft 1 of them with the presumed top 3 choice coming their way. Knock on wood.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

If a rebuild is truly a 2 year project... what's the point in holding onto Xander? He's an incredible value currently and would be starting to age out of his peak seasons by the time a rebuild starts to blossom. He's one of my favorites for a while now and it'd hurt to see him leave... but it doesn't make sense for him to stick around.
I guess there's a lot of if's here and this is a good season to address them that would then address situation with X.... Devers, 10D, Martinez, Sale, ERod, etc......

 

[OurF'ingCity]

If a rebuild is truly a 2 year project... what's the point in holding onto Xander? He's an incredible value currently and would be starting to age out of his peak seasons by the time a rebuild starts to blossom. He's one of my favorites for a while now and it'd hurt to see him leave... but it doesn't make sense for him to stick around.
I guess there's a lot of if's here and this is a good season to address them that would then address situation with X.... Devers, 10D, Martinez, Sale, ERod, etc......

His contract expires when he's 32. Given how hard a position shortstop is to get production out of, I find it hard to believe that whatever they could get back in a Bogaerts trade would provide more value than Bogaerts himself would. And in today's market, he really isn't making all that much. Even if he were to average 4 WAR a year for the rest of his contract (which would be well below his career averages to date) he'd still easily be worth the $20 million AAV he's getting.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If a rebuild is truly a 2 year project... what's the point in holding onto Xander? He's an incredible value currently and would be starting to age out of his peak seasons by the time a rebuild starts to blossom. He's one of my favorites for a while now and it'd hurt to see him leave... but it doesn't make sense for him to stick around.
I guess there's a lot of if's here and this is a good season to address them that would then address situation with X.... Devers, 10D, Martinez, Sale, ERod, etc......

They extended him last year, arguably at a discount compared to what he'd have gotten on the open market this past winter. Would be incredibly dumb to turn around and trade him now.

A rebuild does not require stripping the roster bare. They're going to want/need veteran leadership. Bogaerts is that guy. To me, he is to the Red Sox of the next 5-7 years what Dustin Pedroia was to the franchise 10 years ago. He's a hell of a player, he wants to be here, he should stay here.

FWIW, he has a no-trade clause that is supposed to kick in as soon as he reaches 7 years of service time. Had they had a normal season this year, that point would have come two weeks ago. Not sure how the math works for this abbreviated season, but I would guess that if they want to move him (I don't think they do), and they want to do it in a non-complicated way (where he has no say), it'll have to be this month...in a weird, unpredictable market where getting good value is unlikely.

 

[RedOctober3829]

If a rebuild is truly a 2 year project... what's the point in holding onto Xander? He's an incredible value currently and would be starting to age out of his peak seasons by the time a rebuild starts to blossom. He's one of my favorites for a while now and it'd hurt to see him leave... but it doesn't make sense for him to stick around.
I guess there's a lot of if's here and this is a good season to address them that would then address situation with X.... Devers, 10D, Martinez, Sale, ERod, etc......

I don't think 2 years is a long enough rebuilding process. The farm system is going to take years to rebuild the right way. At the major league level, there is not many players they could bring in this offseason that would make a huge difference other than Trevor Bauer and George Springer. You are better off not doing much this offseason and wait to see if the following become FA's: Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Fransisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Noah Syndegaard. I wonder if Bogaerts would consider moving to 3rd base to allow somebody like Lindor or Baez come in and help the ballclub. X at 3rd, FA SS, Downs at 2nd, and Devers at 1st is a heck of an infield.

 

[Papo The Snow Tiger]

Stumbled on to a broadcast a couple weeks ago and was confused by it. It seemed an odd level of game to be showing a replay of, or so I thought because the fans I could see behind the plate were not wearing masks. Figured out it was live when they showed the dugout where a couple coaches were in masks. Was really surprised with the game being in MA (@ Westfield) that it was happening at all, let alone with spectators. How are they doing it while the big leaguers are playing in front of cardboard cut-outs?

I can't answer for MA, but here in CT we're at level 2, phase 2, or whatever it is meaning limited small gatherings are okay. The New Britain Bees do have a Covid readiness plan in place are limiting the tickets sold to 25% capacity, or 1500 fans and are requiring masks be worn in the aisles and in the concourse and social distancing in the stands, but you can take your mask off once your seated. As far as the level of play is concerened, I hope those kids are getting good grades in school.
https://nbbees.com.ismmedia.com/ISM3/std-content/repos/Top/COVID-19 Ballpark Readiness Plan NB Bees Updated.pdf

 

[BaseballJones]

In some ways, this team is a long long way from being good. The prospects are too far away. The bullpen is an epic disaster. The rotation is counting on a healthy return of Sale and EdRo, and there's just lots of holes.

But in another way, this team isn't that far from contending. If they're playing to their capability, JDM, Devers, and X are all stars. Benintendi is someone we know can be a pretty good player (not a star, but pretty good). Verdugo looks legit. Chavis looks pretty useful. Vaz is a good guy at his spot, both with the glove and bat. And it's not crazy to think that by August 2021, Sale is back and dealing, EdRo is doing his thing, and even bullpen arms like Workman and Barnes are holding down an improved bullpen.

What they'd need then to be really good is another starter and a few bullpen arms. And if the other guys do what they're capable of, they could be good.

Right now, it's all going completely to hell at once, which is going to make any team look abysmal. But the pitching staff looks a lot different with a healthy and normal Sale and EdRo, plus 2018 Barnes, 2017-2019 Workman, and if Devers, JBJ, Benintendi, Vaz, and JDM are actually hitting like they're capable of.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Chavis still can't hit a high fastball no matter what the velocity. Until that hole is fixed he's a JAG.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I don't think 2 years is a long enough rebuilding process. The farm system is going to take years to rebuild the right way. At the major league level, there is not many players they could bring in this offseason that would make a huge difference other than Trevor Bauer and George Springer. You are better off not doing much this offseason and wait to see if the following become FA's: Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Fransisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Noah Syndegaard. I wonder if Bogaerts would consider moving to 3rd base to allow somebody like Lindor or Baez come in and help the ballclub. X at 3rd, FA SS, Downs at 2nd, and Devers at 1st is a heck of an infield.

Didn't we try X at 3rd and learned that lesson?

 

[RedOctober3829]

Didn't we try X at 3rd and learned that lesson?

He played 3rd in the '13 World Series and played well there. He then switched over to 3rd in the middle of the year in 2014 because they signed Stephen Drew and he struggled with it. But, he's older now and a leader of the team. If he was not in favor of it, then don't sign one of those guys but if he is on board then yes go ahead and do it. He has been a consistently bad defensive player at shortstop(-63 DRS in his career) so I believe it would be an upgrade to sign Lindor(+44 in his career).

 

[BaseballJones]

Chavis still can't hit a high fastball no matter what the velocity. Until that hole is fixed he's a JAG.

Well, even with that hole in his swing, he's hitting .283/.298/.522/.820, 114 ops+. There's nothing wrong with having a low-in-the-order 2b that has his kind of power and puts up a .800ish ops. That's not a JAG. That's a useful guy. Not everyone can be a star.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

I don't think 2 years is a long enough rebuilding process. The farm system is going to take years to rebuild the right way. At the major league level, there is not many players they could bring in this offseason that would make a huge difference other than Trevor Bauer and George Springer. You are better off not doing much this offseason and wait to see if the following become FA's: Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Fransisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Noah Syndegaard. I wonder if Bogaerts would consider moving to 3rd base to allow somebody like Lindor or Baez come in and help the ballclub. X at 3rd, FA SS, Downs at 2nd, and Devers at 1st is a heck of an infield.

I think it's kind of a myth that you have to intentionally tank for multiple years to rebuild the farm system/get back to contention. You can also (partially) restock the farm system through strategic acquisitions and trades.

The Yankees 2016 season is the model here, of course. They signed Chapman for one year, traded him at the deadline and got back a package headlined by Gleyber Torres. They signed Miller for (I think) two years, and traded him for a package headlined by Justus Sheffield, who they then turned into James Paxton. And they traded Beltran for a bunch of mid-tier prospects that helped complete the Paxton and Britton trades.

It's not a 1-to-1 comparison because the Yankees already had a pretty good farm system in 2016. But it does suggest that the strategy for the current Sox should be to (a) get as many prospects as they can this season at the deadline (and/or in the offseason for people on multi-year contracts like, potentially, Moreland), and (b) make a bunch of short-term, hopefully high-upside signings over this offseason that avoids the top tier of free agents. At best, you end up with the 2013 team again (when more or less all of their short-term signings hit). At worst, you suck, and then you can parlay some of those short-term signings into additional prospects.

TLDR - it makes sense to avoid any long-term expensive free agent signings this year but there is nothing to be gained from standing pat and just conceding the 2021 season before it's even begun.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Didn't we try X at 3rd and learned that lesson?

Moving him to 3B mid-season to accommodate Stephen Drew was a poorly made decision that did not have positive results. Moving him to accommodate an all-star free agent SS the caliber of Baez or Lindor is a different story. I'm sure that would come with some conversations about his willingness to do it. Though frankly, I'm not a fan of shuffling multiple players to new positions just to get a new player in the lineup.

 

[A Bad Man]

Someone else may have mentioned this already, but a snafu in future plans is X has an opt-out option after 2022 (as does Sale).

 

[RedOctober3829]

I think it's kind of a myth that you have to intentionally tank for multiple years to rebuild the farm system/get back to contention. You can also (partially) restock the farm system through strategic acquisitions and trades.

The Yankees 2016 season is the model here, of course. They signed Chapman for one year, traded him at the deadline and got back a package headlined by Gleyber Torres. They signed Miller for (I think) two years, and traded him for a package headlined by Justus Sheffield, who they then turned into James Paxton. And they traded Beltran for a bunch of mid-tier prospects that helped complete the Paxton and Britton trades.

It's not a 1-to-1 comparison because the Yankees already had a pretty good farm system in 2016. But it does suggest that the strategy for the current Sox should be to (a) get as many prospects as they can this season at the deadline (and/or in the offseason for people on multi-year contracts like, potentially, Moreland), and (b) make a bunch of short-term, hopefully high-upside signings over this offseason that avoids the top tier of free agents. At best, you end up with the 2013 team again (when more or less all of their short-term signings hit). At worst, you suck, and then you can parlay some of those short-term signings into additional prospects.

TLDR - it makes sense to avoid any long-term expensive free agent signings this year but there is nothing to be gained from standing pat and just conceding the 2021 season before it's even begun.

Who are the Red Sox version of Chapman, Beltran, etc? Rentals like Moreland, Bradley, Workman, etc. are not going to fetch the kind of prospects you think. I think the only major league players that you would get what you are looking for are Bogaerts and Devers and that is it. There is no one ever again going to trade a Gleyber Torres-type prospect for a rental. You are right in that it is not a 1-1 comparison. The Yankees already had Judge, Sanchez, and Tyler Wade in their top 10 and were ranked #16 by B/R before the '16 season started. The Red Sox farm system is currently ranked #23 and have 1-2 guys who may make a .

I agree with your strategy this offseason in the free agent market. Maybe you stretch yourself for LeMahieu if he hits the market because it gives the team a competent leadoff hitter with a player who can play all over the diamond. But other than that, make smart signings that don't cost a lot and see what happens after 2021.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

He played 3rd in the '13 World Series and played well there. He then switched over to 3rd in the middle of the year in 2014 because they signed Stephen Drew and he struggled with it. But, he's older now and a leader of the team. If he was not in favor of it, then don't sign one of those guys but if he is on board then yes go ahead and do it. He has been a consistently bad defensive player at shortstop(-63 DRS in his career) so I believe it would be an upgrade to sign Lindor(+44 in his career).

Moving him to 3B mid-season to accommodate Stephen Drew was a poorly made decision that did not have positive results. Moving him to accommodate an all-star free agent SS the caliber of Baez or Lindor is a different story. I'm sure that would come with some conversations about his willingness to do it. Though frankly, I'm not a fan of shuffling multiple players to new positions just to get a new player in the lineup.

Fair on the mid season point; I'm gravitating towards the bolded though. I do not agree with Red that's he's a bad defender - DRS, as most defensive ones, is a flawed stat - I'd say he's average and I'm perfectly fine with that. I think starting to juggle guys for a Lindor is kind of foolish; he's an extremely good player, but will probably be overpaid and not worth it to start upturning the apple cart. The ship hasn't sailed on me for Devers at 3B though, so I may not be looking at it the same way.

 

[sean1562]

With Eduardo and Sale back next season, I imagine we need to sign one or two major league caliber starting pitchers to be a decent team. Perez looks like he will be worth a back end spot next season. I dont expect them to win the WS next year but they clearly didnt sign starting pitching depth because they had no money. We can get some veteran SPs that can eat some innings and not run ERAs north of 5 for a year or two while we wait for some of the guys in the lower ends of the farm system to grow into potential players. The CBA expires after next season and may significantly open up the ability of big teams to spend money. I understand why we traded Betts but that whole reasoning will seem extremely hollow if we then go and trade every other big name player from the best Red Sox team in history, especially Xander.

 

[grimshaw]

I don't think 2 years is a long enough rebuilding process. The farm system is going to take years to rebuild the right way. At the major league level, there is not many players they could bring in this offseason that would make a huge difference other than Trevor Bauer and George Springer. You are better off not doing much this offseason and wait to see if the following become FA's: Nolan Arenado, Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Fransisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Noah Syndegaard. I wonder if Bogaerts would consider moving to 3rd base to allow somebody like Lindor or Baez come in and help the ballclub. X at 3rd, FA SS, Downs at 2nd, and Devers at 1st is a heck of an infield.

This. Since the 2012 amateur draft, these have been their meaningful draft contributors from the minors
2012 - Brian Johnson
2013 - zip
2014 - Chavis. Beeks and Kopech were traded.
2015 - Beni.
2016 - zip. TBD on Groome and Dalbec
2017 - 2019 Too early to call. Hopefully Casas and Ward work out.

2012 was particularly killer since they were a last place team and didn't make hay for the 2013 draft. They did get Beni as a high draft pick after a poor 2014 season but he has been merely good and not the impact guy they were hoping for. I'm not writing him off, but his cheap production seasons are running out. They were also poor in 2015, and the 2016 draft results are not looking great either. While Groome may have been the talent they were looking for, he hasn't been able to stay healthy.

They also have separate recent drafts without a first rounder and without a second rounder. They need to hit 100% on international players to help make up for this.

TL DR: there is no quick rebuild regardless of whether you draft well and keep good guys or trade everyone of value. If E-Rod and Sale had normal injuries, then sure, maybe you can patch some holes and reload, but those guys are huge questions marks.

2 months ago I never would have considered trading Bogaerts (doubt they would anyhow) for reasons @Red(s)HawksFan mentioned or Raffy who could be a future MVP, but they need volumes of good talent in order to have a chance to hit on several of them, not necessarily the one or two elite guys. And those are the two players who could fetch them.