Let's talk about this ballclub.

scottyno

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I agree with you, mostly, on the return. $48 million is an awful lot of money to pay for a guy with a broken back, a potential utilityman, and one prospect with real upside as an above average everyday player. Now if the Dodgers were eating Price's deal outright I'd shrug, but they weren't.
They aren't really paying 48m though (now 32 though they couldn't know that at the time), you need to factor in the amount they're saving this year and then will save next year when they presumably go back over the tax number.

And if either downs or verdugo, nevermind both, ends up being at least an average MLB player they'll make up that money in the cost controlled years.
 

richgedman'sghost

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Hey I know it's early but Alex Verdugo with the two home runs and a home run saving catch in tonight's game. I take it that @SJH wasn't watching the game. Smiling Joe Hesketh keeps mentioning that A.V. has a chronic back condition. What proof is there that the back will be a continuous problem in the future? Everything I've read and seen reported is that the back is now solved.
As for Mookie, I think he firmly intended to go to free agency. However, when the pandemic hit, Mookie decided not to risk free agency. He decided to take the bird in hand, rather than risk a depressed market. After all at the end of this year, I firmly believe the owners will argue that the lack of fans in stands and loss of concession dollars will force them to cut back on free agent dollars. Why is this so hard to understand?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I didn’t mean the same team, I meant the progression of the team’s philosophy. 07 was the realization of Theo’s approach of building a winner and then leaning on the team’s development machine. Youk, Pedey, Ellsbury, Lester, Papelbon. More of an Intentional evolution than a reset.
Those were the days when the Sox could use their financial muscle to draft good to great prospects and pay them over-slot to get a competitive advantage. Too bad that's gone.

Other than tanking - or perhaps finding a secret development recipe that apparently only a few clubs know about (LAD, HOU) - simply drafting and developing is not going to get the Sox back on top. It's too much of a crapshoot
I know they have very little young pitching that is major league ready but why not in this disaster of a season bring up Houck, or Shawaryn, instead of all these has-beens.
Probably a service time issue.
 

nvalvo

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The allegations were that they had violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. It was mostly paying bribes and involvement with the organized crime figures who human trafficked some Latin American players.
 

Captaincoop

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This pandemic would be a great time for the pro leagues to change the calculus for teams with respect to tanking. MLB and the NBA are riddled with intentionally non-competitive teams and it is affecting the quality of the product.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Pete Abe forgot to drive home that Ryan Weber made three starts and slotted in as the third starter. Offensive struggles as a team happen, and this is one of the worst funks I can recall in some time.

However, with a fucked spring training and abeyond abbreviated summer camp, I'm not shocked the lineup is cratering the way it is. It's disconcerting and maddening, of course, but I have to believe it will come around sooner than later.

What won't come around is the pitching. In fact, there's nothing to come around to or from. There is no way to chicken salad the chicken shit of Weber, Covey, etc. How many ML caliber pitchers are on this roster? Four, maybe at best? Possibly five depending on your definition of ML adequacy?

I'm expecting to lose a lot, but I'd love to lose in slugfests because that's the only way this team could dream of being relevant for a single game, let alone be semi enjoyable to watch.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm not going to try too hard to defend the pitching, because they've had some dreadful performances by the starting rotation in particular. However, looking at their 9 losses so far, they've failed to score more than 3 runs in six of them. The 13 run burst on Opening Day is disproportionately buoying their scoring average right now...4.14 R/G overall, but 3.46 R/G excluding the first game.

I'm going to say it. This team is shitty right now because their offense is shitty. Martinez, Benintendi, Devers, JBJ...they are as big, if not a bigger problem than the flotsam and jetsam of the pitching staff.
 
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Rovin Romine

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However, with a fucked spring training and abeyond abbreviated summer camp, I'm not shocked the lineup is cratering the way it is. It's disconcerting and maddening, of course, but I have to believe it will come around sooner than later.
Oddly, the same set of circumstances don't seem to be affecting the teams we're playing. . .although yes, I don't think recent performance shows some sort of resetting of the team's baseline talent level.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Oddly, the same set of circumstances don't seem to be affecting the teams we're playing. . .although yes, I don't think recent performance shows some sort of resetting of the team's baseline talent level.
I'm definitely making excuses, mostly because I don't want to believe our lineup has turned into a rotting pumpkin patch.

This could be the one the first stages of denial, for sure.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Isn't small sample size the most likely explanation?
Sure. I said it could be one(sss) or the other (covid-level infection of regression lineup wide). But the point I was replying to was about other team's not necessarily scuffling as bad as the Sox and they had screwed up spring trainings and summer camps. I was attributing this, in part, to Sox the offensive struggles.

Of course 15 games isn't enough to truly panic about. Hell, given the situation, I'm not sure what sample size would be big enough to worry long-term.
 

nvalvo

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Oddly, the same set of circumstances don't seem to be affecting the teams we're playing. . .although yes, I don't think recent performance shows some sort of resetting of the team's baseline talent level.
The Sox offense is actually a hair better than league average, although there’s no park adjustment there. oWAR (park adjusted) has us 1 run below average.

Offense is way down this year, *despite the universal DH.* There are seven teams with sub-.300 OBPs.

.231/.311/.396 is MLB’s line on the season. Boston is at .243/.310/.412.
 

Hank Scorpio

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2012 was a dumpster fire sale, 2013 was an unexpected fluke where everything went right, 2014 was - I’m not sure what 2014 was supposed to be - and 2015 when the new core started to come together.
Things started to come to fruition in 2016 and we added Price, followed by Sale, followed by JDM.

It hasn’t really been that long since a long, multi-year, reload. Ours was just broken up by an incredibly unexpected championship season in 2013.
 

effectivelywild

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I'm definitely making excuses, mostly because I don't want to believe our lineup has turned into a rotting pumpkin patch.

This could be the one the first stages of denial, for sure.
Isn't small sample size the most likely explanation?
I think its important to consider that in fact the lineup is turning into a rotting set of pumpkins, a phenomenon that I have been researcgubg. Although pumpkins and humans share only around 75% DNA, some scientists have hypothesized that there may be organisms that are able to change their appearance, in response to stumuli (ala cuttlefish) that have a sort of hybrid human-pumpkin hybrids (Cucurbita sapiens is preferred over the more potentially controversial Homo pepo). These obervations are in part due to the appearance of pumpkins, typically in late October, that have vaguely humanoid "faces", often seen on porches, before ultimately rotting away. It stands to reason then that there could be a more human-appearing form of this species that is currently populating our team but may be regressing to their pumpkin form. Also notable---while clasically the "face pumpkins" only appear in late October, it could be that the Red Sox team is beginning to undergo its transformation early, particularly in light of the fact that it is unlikely to be playing in late October.
 

DeadlySplitter

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The Sox are now 6-9 at the 25% mark, if this season gets to conclusion.

the Pirates are 3-13. Mariners 5-11, playing right now. Angels likely to be 5-11. Getting a premium draft choice will take intentional tanking at the deadline, and even that might not be enough.
 

The Gray Eagle

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The next 8 games are against Tampa and NYY. At the end of that we'll have a much better idea which direction this season is going. Tampa hasn't been great this year, and we are only 3.5 behind the Yankees right now, but I'd be pretty surprised if we won more than 2 or 3 of those 8.

It'd be a great time to go on a fluky hot streak. If we do, then we'd be in solid playoff position. If not, the fire sale will probably start early.
 

BaseballJones

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Sox vs. MLB averages:

Runs per game: 4.36
Boston: 4.20 (#16)

OPS: .708
Boston: .716 (#15)

Runs allowed per game: 4.36
Boston: 4.67 (#20)

WHIP: 1.26
Boston: 1.44 (#28)

K/9: 9.1
Boston: 8.6 (#23)

So basically the Sox have a slightly below average offense, and way below average pitching. Not exactly a recipe for success.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Sox vs. MLB averages:

Runs per game: 4.36
Boston: 4.20 (#16)

OPS: .708
Boston: .716 (#15)

Runs allowed per game: 4.36
Boston: 4.67 (#20)

WHIP: 1.26
Boston: 1.44 (#28)

K/9: 9.1
Boston: 8.6 (#23)

So basically the Sox have a slightly below average offense, and way below average pitching. Not exactly a recipe for success.
As I pointed out yesterday, that runs per game number is still disproportionately supported by the big number they put up Opening Day. Since then, they're averaging 3.57 runs per game, which would put them 25th in MLB. The offense has been more than slightly below average for much of the season.
 

BaseballJones

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As I pointed out yesterday, that runs per game number is still disproportionately supported by the big number they put up Opening Day. Since then, they're averaging 3.57 runs per game, which would put them 25th in MLB. The offense has been more than slightly below average for much of the season.
Yes, good point. This team...just isn't very good.
 

sean1562

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They have been bad but we are only 1.5 out of a playoff spot right? You really only need one or two string of good starts from these lower end guys to sneak into the playoffs. Eovaldi has looked like the pitcher he has always been and Perez has been ok the last few starts. If Godley can be 5 starter guy and Valdez keeps looking like an actual major league pitcher, we still have a chance at an 8 seed. JDM and Devers will heat up.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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As I pointed out yesterday, that runs per game number is still disproportionately supported by the big number they put up Opening Day. Since then, they're averaging 3.57 runs per game, which would put them 25th in MLB. The offense has been more than slightly below average for much of the season.
True, but you would expect the offense to kick it up a notch at some point, no? Certainly JDM, etc. will all improve.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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True, but you would expect the offense to kick it up a notch at some point, no? Certainly JDM, etc. will all improve.
Will they? The season is short and they're all in horrible, career-worst slumps.

Benintendi looks like he's never played baseball in his life. He has 2 hits, one of them a bunt, in 47 PAs. That's not a slump, that's "get sent to the minors forever" slump. Devers, JBJ, JDM are all off to horrible starts as well. JDM has complained about the new video rules impacting his preparation.

They're bad, and I'm unsure they're suddenly going to magically get better. Their problems are deep and endemic. I have serious doubts about Benintendi's future in the league. Because he's playing himself out of it.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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True, but you would expect the offense to kick it up a notch at some point, no? Certainly JDM, etc. will all improve.
I do. The frustrating part of the season so far in my eyes is that we looked at the pitching staff before the season and expected mediocrity at best. That really wasn't the case for the offense. Based on the personnel, the offense should be top half of the league at minimum, top 5-10 if guys perform more or less as expected. If they were getting that kind of offense, this team would be above .500 and a likely playoff team despite the pitching warts.
 

Bergs

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I think its important to consider that in fact the lineup is turning into a rotting set of pumpkins, a phenomenon that I have been researcgubg. Although pumpkins and humans share only around 75% DNA, some scientists have hypothesized that there may be organisms that are able to change their appearance, in response to stumuli (ala cuttlefish) that have a sort of hybrid human-pumpkin hybrids (Cucurbita sapiens is preferred over the more potentially controversial Homo pepo). These obervations are in part due to the appearance of pumpkins, typically in late October, that have vaguely humanoid "faces", often seen on porches, before ultimately rotting away. It stands to reason then that there could be a more human-appearing form of this species that is currently populating our team but may be regressing to their pumpkin form. Also notable---while clasically the "face pumpkins" only appear in late October, it could be that the Red Sox team is beginning to undergo its transformation early, particularly in light of the fact that it is unlikely to be playing in late October.
I have no earthly idea how this isn't getting more love.
 

OurF'ingCity

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In a normal season, they are probably a .500ish team - if it was currently mid-April and they were 6-9 I think we'd all be saying that the pitching doesn't stand much chance of improving but guys like JDM and Devers aren't going to suck all season (and even Benintendi can't be THIS bad for a full season, can he?), so we'd expect some improvement as those guys get out of their slumps.

The problem here obviously is that in the shortened season there is much less time to make up for a bad stretch, so if they want any chance at the playoffs (and not really sure they do), the offense needs to pick up quickly.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The problem here obviously is that in the shortened season there is much less time to make up for a bad stretch, so if they want any chance at the playoffs (and not really sure they do), the offense needs to pick up quickly.
This is why they expanded the playoffs this year. I know that ownership is angling for that to be permanent but I think the way they got the players on board was, in part, due to the flukiness of a short season. Now those slow starters don't have to work their way to a .530-.550 type winning percentage. Scraping back to .500 might be enough.
 

bluefenderstrat

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Will they? The season is short and they're all in horrible, career-worst slumps.

Benintendi looks like he's never played baseball in his life. He has 2 hits, one of them a bunt, in 47 PAs. That's not a slump, that's "get sent to the minors forever" slump. Devers, JBJ, JDM are all off to horrible starts as well. JDM has complained about the new video rules impacting his preparation.

They're bad, and I'm unsure they're suddenly going to magically get better. Their problems are deep and endemic. I have serious doubts about Benintendi's future in the league. Because he's playing himself out of it.
Yeah, it's all over. I mean, it's 36 at bats, nobody's ever come out of a slump that long.
 

Rovin Romine

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Yeah, it's all over. I mean, it's 36 at bats, nobody's ever come out of a slump that long.
He may be nursing an injury. Hopefully, if not, he'll be motivated to train in a way that will keep him in baseball form for an actual season.

It's still pretty epic though: (Failed on the cut and paste)
But, as noted, 47 PAs, BA of .056, OBP .261, SLG .083. He has two hits, one of which was a bunt, and the other a double. 10 walks, 16 strikeouts.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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In retrospect, it sure looks like 2018 was a massive outlier for him. 2017 and 2019 look pretty similar. 2020 looks like a complete "send him to the minors at once" disaster.

Not that Devers, JBJ and JDM are doing much of anything either. But at least their OPS+ marks are higher than friggin' three.
 

OurF'ingCity

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In retrospect, it sure looks like 2018 was a massive outlier for him. 2017 and 2019 look pretty similar. 2020 looks like a complete "send him to the minors at once" disaster.

Not that Devers, JBJ and JDM are doing much of anything either. But at least their OPS+ marks are higher than friggin' three.
This season, there really isn't much downside to just continuing to throw him out there most days, just like there isn't much downside to throwing out their numerous no-name bullpen arms to see if anyone shows anything that would suggest they could possibly have a role on future, hopefully much better teams.

If Beni turns it around, we might look back on this as just an extremely bad slump to start the year. If he plays this way all season, or even slightly better but still horrible (assuming he's not injured), then yeah obviously they'll have to consider whether he has any role on the team going forward. I can't imagine any other team will have any interest in him at the deadline unless he improves his play this year significantly.

And if he is injured, he should be on the IL or shut down for the entire season. This isn't the year to play someone who is nursing an injury of any kind.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The last time I can remember a Sox who slumped this badly, it was Tim Naehring, who had an 0 for 39 in 1991.

He got sent down. He never snapped out of it that year, and he was terrible the following season as well.

I don't see any upside in letting Benintendi continue to make outs at this pace at the major league level. What good is he doing for the team or himself?
 

OurF'ingCity

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The last time I can remember a Sox who slumped this badly, it was Tim Naehring, who had an 0 for 39 in 1991.

He got sent down. He never snapped out of it that year, and he was terrible the following season as well.

I don't see any upside in letting Benintendi continue to make outs at this pace at the major league level. What good is he doing for the team or himself?
1991? You only have to go back to last year, when JBJ's start was about as bad, and over a longer time period (.142/.240/.170 through 106 plate appearances). They didn't send him down to the minors and he ended the season .225/.317/.421, which still certainly isn't good but not atrociously bad either.

Edit: many more almost-as-bad slumps, from much better players, here (including Ortiz's horrid 2009 start): https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-slumps-in-mlb-history. I don't think Benny's a future Hall of Famer or anything but to suggest that this bad 15-game stretch means his career might be ruined, when the vast majority of evidence prior to this season suggests Benny is basically an average hitter, is just completely unsupported by anything. If someone wants to explain why Benny's current slump is different than the countless other slumps players go through over even longer periods, I'm all ears, but I haven't seen that yet.
 
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Smiling Joe Hesketh

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1991? You only have to go back to last year, when JBJ's start was about as bad, and over a longer time period (.142/.240/.170 through 106 plate appearances). They didn't send him down to the minors and he ended the season .225/.317/.421, which still certainly isn't good but not atrociously bad either.

Edit: many more almost-as-bad slumps, from much better players, here (including Ortiz's horrid 2009 start): https://www.mlb.com/news/biggest-slumps-in-mlb-history. I don't think Benny's a future Hall of Famer or anything but to suggest that this bad 15-game stretch means his career might be ruined, when the vast majority of evidence prior to this season suggests Benny is basically an average hitter, is just completely unsupported by anything. If someone wants to explain why Benny's current slump is different than the countless other slumps players go through over even longer periods, I'm all ears, but I haven't seen that yet.
It's worse by several orders of magnitude. 142/240/170 is sadly enough MUCH better than 056/261/083. When a hitter loses all ability to do anything positive at all, and it comes when he's yet to show any positive signs this year before slumping, to me that's an endemic issue and not just a slump. It's not like he was hitting well and then slumped. He's basically lost the ability to hit this season. I can't see why they wouldn't be extremely worried about it.

They had to send Naehring down. I think they're going to need to do that with Benintendi.
 

OurF'ingCity

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It's worse by several orders of magnitude. 142/240/170 is sadly enough MUCH better than 056/261/083.
Is it, though? Neither was hitting or slugging well enough to do much of anything but at least Benintendi's been on base more, which means he's actually walking more than Bradley was during that stretch, which is something positive. And, again, those JBJ numbers are from double the plate appearances.

If AB's numbers remain this bad for say, another month, then yes clearly that's an issue but at that point the season's almost over anyway.

No need to keep going in circles on this but suffice it to say I just don't think we have nearly enough evidence yet to determine whether this is (a) an unfortunate slump magnified by the shortened season; (b) related to an injury or similar issue like vision problems, etc.; or (c) a sign that Benintendi somehow totally forgot how to play baseball between last year and now. It could be (c), I guess, but it's way too soon to know that for sure.
 

nvalvo

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Looks like Benintendi's out-of-zone contact rate has collapsed by 20%, even as he is swinging at *fewer* out of zone pitches. Weird.

But similar things are going on with other good hitters around the league. Christian Yelich was 3/37 with 16 strikeouts until he snapped out of it with an Eloy Jiminez-aided 4/19, 3 HR stretch.

It doesn't help that this is the lowest league-wide BABIP has been over any eighteen game span in the last 25 years.
 

joe dokes

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Looks like Benintendi's out-of-zone contact rate has collapsed by 20%, even as he is swinging at *fewer* out of zone pitches. Weird.

But similar things are going on with other good hitters around the league. Christian Yelich was 3/37 with 16 strikeouts until he snapped out of it with an Eloy Jiminez-aided 4/19, 3 HR stretch.

It doesn't help that this is the lowest league-wide BABIP has been over any eighteen game span in the last 25 years.
In game sign detection and pitch-tipping detection is way down because of the new video rules.
 

BaseballJones

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Benintendi's line is almost incomprehensible.

47 pa, 36 ab, 3 r, 2 h, 1 2b, 0 3b, 0 hr, 1 rbi, 1 sb, 1 cs, 10 bb, 16 k, .056/.261/.083/.344, 3 tb, 3 ops+ (!!!)

In 12 games, Benintendi has THREE total bases.

So ok, what would he need to get his batting average (forget the rest) up to .250?

At 2-36...

- if he goes 5 for his next 8, he will be at 7-44 (.159).
- if he goes 12 for his next 30, he will be at 14-66 (.212).
- if he goes 15 for his next 36, he will be at 17-72 (.236).
- if he goes 20 for his next 50, he will be at 22-86 (.256).

Fortunately, his number of ab is so low that it wouldn't take TOO much of a little hot streak to bring his numbers to respectability. But as is so often the case when we are talking about a slumping player, it doesn't seem hopeful.

Other relevant numbers....

- Career (pre 2020) line drive rate of 27%. This year? 5%. FIVE.
- Career (pre 2020) AB/K of 4.7. This year? 2.3.
- Career (pre 2020) GB/FB of 0.67. This year? 1.11.

So he's striking out more often. He's hitting FAR fewer line drives or balls hard. And he's hitting way more grounders than he ever has. Basically he's either striking out or hitting soft grounders on the infield. And he's not stealing bases. He's basically been the least productive leadoff hitter imaginable.

But the season is still young.
 

joe dokes

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Benintendi's line is almost incomprehensible.

47 pa, 36 ab, 3 r, 2 h, 1 2b, 0 3b, 0 hr, 1 rbi, 1 sb, 1 cs, 10 bb, 16 k, .056/.261/.083/.344, 3 tb, 3 ops+ (!!!)

In 12 games, Benintendi has THREE total bases.

So ok, what would he need to get his batting average (forget the rest) up to .250?

At 2-36...

- if he goes 5 for his next 8, he will be at 7-44 (.159).
- if he goes 12 for his next 30, he will be at 14-66 (.212).
- if he goes 15 for his next 36, he will be at 17-72 (.236).
- if he goes 20 for his next 50, he will be at 22-86 (.256).

Fortunately, his number of ab is so low that it wouldn't take TOO much of a little hot streak to bring his numbers to respectability. But as is so often the case when we are talking about a slumping player, it doesn't seem hopeful.

Other relevant numbers....

- Career (pre 2020) line drive rate of 27%. This year? 5%. FIVE.
- Career (pre 2020) AB/K of 4.7. This year? 2.3.
- Career (pre 2020) GB/FB of 0.67. This year? 1.11.

So he's striking out more often. He's hitting FAR fewer line drives or balls hard. And he's hitting way more grounders than he ever has. Basically he's either striking out or hitting soft grounders on the infield. And he's not stealing bases. He's basically been the least productive leadoff hitter imaginable.

But the season is still young.
If a guy can raise his BA by 100 points with two good games (2-4 & 3-4) then it's too small a sample.