A big factor in the JG situation is "whether the Patriots want to go into 2017 without a proven Backup"
Many have stated that JG gives that kind of insurance while Brissett is still unproven.
While there isnt alot of meat, what there is indicates to me other wise.
First lets establish what we are talking about. Are we looking for someone who can come in for 3 games and "Save/maintain the season" if Brady gets a sprain? Or are we looking for the Post Brady Heir.
While I think its true that JG would be a much better long term Heir, I am not sure that he is that much of an improvement over JB in a 3-4 game "Save the season" scenario.
Couple that with the fact that JG probably "cant" assume the Starting QB title for at least 3 years. Add in the subsequent complications with contacts and salaries and I really see no down side looking for a "valuable haul" for JG in a trade. While going into 2017/2018 with JB as the primary Backup.
JB has started 2 games and played another .5. One of which with a significant hand injury that limited his ability to throw. Strangely in that last game he did better then his previous start.
In those 2.5 games he throw for:
61.8% completion
400 Yards
83.9 rating
As a Rookie.
The 3 teams he played where Miami (29th), Hou (1) and Buffalo(19). A surprisingly encompassing measuring stick considering just 3 teams.
He had his best "game" against Miami not unsurprisingly. The same team that JG was destroying before his injury. His 100.2 and 92 yards on 6 completions was outstanding. Maybe Brissett would have also had a "Coming out party" had he been 1st man up.
His next game was against Houston. Despite their #1 defense limiting him to 57.89% completion and only 103 yards he still led them to a win. He did utilize his legs to a significant degree (48 yards on 8 attempts) in this game which was a big help. Even against a top defense Brissett was able to move the ball and score.
His last game (with the hand injury) was against Buffalo. Despite the thumb JB threw for 62.96% completion and 205 yards. Certainly not great but not terrible. As we all know he couldnt get points in this game, not helped by Fumbles (probably due to the injury).
In both the Tex and Buff game Gronk was essentially a non factor (3 targets, 1 rec for 11 yards). Edelman also was not his normal productive self (10,5,54) in the 2 games. While Gronk was injury related Edelman is surprising. Considering that Bennett (9,7,119) and White (7,6,52) where operating in the same areas as Edelman and had good success. I tend to think it was a timing and unfamiliarity thing.
I propose that with more reps with starters like Edelman, Gronk and Cooks JB could significantly improve on these passing numbers to around 200-250 yard per game and a similar 60% completion. When we mix in his athleticism and ability to scramble that he flashed in the Buffalo game then he would seem to be a more then capable backup. Especially considering the other 2 phases of the game for the Patriots probably wont put him in a bad situation.(wait where is Cyrus Jones?)
All this leads me to conclude that as a 3 game backup he would be fine. Probably resulting in a 2-1 or 1-2 record.
Over a longer stretch he would probably be .500 or slightly below. Say 5-5 over 10.
If Brady goes down for a long stretch, then with either JB or JG our playoff chances are dramatically diminished from a favorite to make the SB to a team that will have to fight to win round 1 (home or away).
Thats pretty much what the best teams in the NFL (not named the Patriots) contend with on a yearly basis.
With either JG or JB we would have to hope that any injury to Brady allowed a couple of games for him to work back into shape and full health for the playoffs if we want to continue to be a prohibitive favorite in every round up to the SB.
JG would not give us that. A fair estimation of JG over 16 games probably puts us at 10-6 or 11-5 and fighting for the AFC East or a WC. A fair estimation of JB over the same 16 probably puts us at 8-8 or 9-7 with an outside chance at the WC.
The key in my opinion is the return in trade for JG. Lets assume the 12 and 108. The 12 could infuse a significant rookie contribution onto the team. Such players as Danny Shelton, Devonte Parker, Melvin Gordon, OBJ, Aaron Donald and Ryan Shazier are players taken around that slot. Not all are stars but many go on to significant NFL careers. 108 could give us players like James White, Shaq Mason, Bryan Stork, Aaron Hernandez Or Matt Slater. While not all will be hits, the Patriots have done well in that 3rd/4th/5th round historically. Also the 108 would be more a developmental player that probably wouldnt help much in 2017 but could have significant impact in 2018+.
JB over a 4 game stretch + "Melvin Gordon"+ "Bryan Stork" > JG over the same 4 game stretch.
So I have tried to make my rambling case of why JB isnt a bad "backup" over "4 games" who wont sink the season and why the return from a JG trade tips the scales towards assessing JB as a "Viable Backup".
This ignores the idea that Next year JG is still a/as valuable commodity with as many suitors and that they are willing to pay a franchise tag or sign JG long term.
What are your thoughts?
Many have stated that JG gives that kind of insurance while Brissett is still unproven.
While there isnt alot of meat, what there is indicates to me other wise.
First lets establish what we are talking about. Are we looking for someone who can come in for 3 games and "Save/maintain the season" if Brady gets a sprain? Or are we looking for the Post Brady Heir.
While I think its true that JG would be a much better long term Heir, I am not sure that he is that much of an improvement over JB in a 3-4 game "Save the season" scenario.
Couple that with the fact that JG probably "cant" assume the Starting QB title for at least 3 years. Add in the subsequent complications with contacts and salaries and I really see no down side looking for a "valuable haul" for JG in a trade. While going into 2017/2018 with JB as the primary Backup.
JB has started 2 games and played another .5. One of which with a significant hand injury that limited his ability to throw. Strangely in that last game he did better then his previous start.
In those 2.5 games he throw for:
61.8% completion
400 Yards
83.9 rating
As a Rookie.
The 3 teams he played where Miami (29th), Hou (1) and Buffalo(19). A surprisingly encompassing measuring stick considering just 3 teams.
He had his best "game" against Miami not unsurprisingly. The same team that JG was destroying before his injury. His 100.2 and 92 yards on 6 completions was outstanding. Maybe Brissett would have also had a "Coming out party" had he been 1st man up.
His next game was against Houston. Despite their #1 defense limiting him to 57.89% completion and only 103 yards he still led them to a win. He did utilize his legs to a significant degree (48 yards on 8 attempts) in this game which was a big help. Even against a top defense Brissett was able to move the ball and score.
His last game (with the hand injury) was against Buffalo. Despite the thumb JB threw for 62.96% completion and 205 yards. Certainly not great but not terrible. As we all know he couldnt get points in this game, not helped by Fumbles (probably due to the injury).
In both the Tex and Buff game Gronk was essentially a non factor (3 targets, 1 rec for 11 yards). Edelman also was not his normal productive self (10,5,54) in the 2 games. While Gronk was injury related Edelman is surprising. Considering that Bennett (9,7,119) and White (7,6,52) where operating in the same areas as Edelman and had good success. I tend to think it was a timing and unfamiliarity thing.
I propose that with more reps with starters like Edelman, Gronk and Cooks JB could significantly improve on these passing numbers to around 200-250 yard per game and a similar 60% completion. When we mix in his athleticism and ability to scramble that he flashed in the Buffalo game then he would seem to be a more then capable backup. Especially considering the other 2 phases of the game for the Patriots probably wont put him in a bad situation.(wait where is Cyrus Jones?)
All this leads me to conclude that as a 3 game backup he would be fine. Probably resulting in a 2-1 or 1-2 record.
Over a longer stretch he would probably be .500 or slightly below. Say 5-5 over 10.
If Brady goes down for a long stretch, then with either JB or JG our playoff chances are dramatically diminished from a favorite to make the SB to a team that will have to fight to win round 1 (home or away).
Thats pretty much what the best teams in the NFL (not named the Patriots) contend with on a yearly basis.
With either JG or JB we would have to hope that any injury to Brady allowed a couple of games for him to work back into shape and full health for the playoffs if we want to continue to be a prohibitive favorite in every round up to the SB.
JG would not give us that. A fair estimation of JG over 16 games probably puts us at 10-6 or 11-5 and fighting for the AFC East or a WC. A fair estimation of JB over the same 16 probably puts us at 8-8 or 9-7 with an outside chance at the WC.
The key in my opinion is the return in trade for JG. Lets assume the 12 and 108. The 12 could infuse a significant rookie contribution onto the team. Such players as Danny Shelton, Devonte Parker, Melvin Gordon, OBJ, Aaron Donald and Ryan Shazier are players taken around that slot. Not all are stars but many go on to significant NFL careers. 108 could give us players like James White, Shaq Mason, Bryan Stork, Aaron Hernandez Or Matt Slater. While not all will be hits, the Patriots have done well in that 3rd/4th/5th round historically. Also the 108 would be more a developmental player that probably wouldnt help much in 2017 but could have significant impact in 2018+.
JB over a 4 game stretch + "Melvin Gordon"+ "Bryan Stork" > JG over the same 4 game stretch.
So I have tried to make my rambling case of why JB isnt a bad "backup" over "4 games" who wont sink the season and why the return from a JG trade tips the scales towards assessing JB as a "Viable Backup".
This ignores the idea that Next year JG is still a/as valuable commodity with as many suitors and that they are willing to pay a franchise tag or sign JG long term.
What are your thoughts?