Line up going Forward

Mighty Joe Young · Jul 5, 2015

i really can't see the RedSox making a 39 year old Ortiz the regular 1B against RHs . Occasionally against a tough RH so they can bypass Napoli is about the extent of it one would think. Especially with a day off the next day.

Savin Hillbilly · Jul 5, 2015

Also, if you're assuming they're going to bench Napoli vs. RHP, I don't understand assuming they'll play Papi against LHP, since his platoon split is much bigger than Nap's. Nap has only been terrible vs. same-side pitching, not mind-numbingly atrocious like Ortiz.

Drek717 · Jul 6, 2015

If the goal is to avoid Ortiz' contract vesting then sure, lets put him at 1B as much as possible, but seeings how he sports a .925 OPS against RHP so far this year I'd argue he's still got real value if used correctly.

What I would suggest would be to release Breslow (a LHP who sucks more against LHB than RHB, and his low RHB ERA is a mirage as he's giving up a better than .800 OPS to RHBs), bring up Travis Shaw, and do the following until Pedroia returns:

RHP
CF - Betts
2B - Holt
SS - Bogaerts
DH - Ortiz
LF - Ramirez
3B - Sandoval
RF - De Aza
C - Hanigan
1B - Shaw

LHP
CF - Betts
2B - Holt
SS - Bogaerts
DH - Ramirez
RF - Victorino
3B - Sandoval
LF - De Aza
1B - Napoli
C - Hanigan

Once Pedroia is back healthy replace Holt with Pedroia in all those lineups, have Holt spell LF, RF, 3B, SS, and especially 1B (if Shaw isn't hitting, which is why I'd like to see this sooner than later to maximize Shaw's chance to adapt and show something) against RHP but almost exclusively LF and 3B against LHP. He should be giving someone a day off 4/5ths of all RHP starts and EVERY day against LHP starts. Ortiz sees time at DH against one out of every 3 or 4 LHP, with Ramirez moving back to LF and getting De Aza out of the lineup.

I really don't see why they continue to ride Napoli when he's clearly cooked against RHP instead of giving Shaw a real string of ABs to try and put something together. Shaw isn't a great prospect, but he's a solid defender who traditionally has put up quality ABs against RHP. Better than what we're getting from Napoli right now to be sure. Ultimately he would also just be up to buy time until you see if Craig can start hitting RHP in AAA as well, earning himself a promotion, or if Nava can get back healthy and be worth giving playing time to at 1B. Literally no one could do worse than Napoli is right now against RHP though.

Byrdbrain · Jul 6, 2015

Shaw has a .706 OPS against righties in AAA, it is certainly conceivable he could do worse than Napoli's .598 against righties in MLB.

I think that Nava gets one more shot at coming up and being a useful player(assuming he is healthy) and gets some starts at 1B against righties after the allstar break.

The thing is getting him on the roster, they will have to send a pitcher down to fit him.

Drek717 · Jul 6, 2015

Byrdbrain said:
Shaw has a .706 OPS against righties in AAA, it is certainly conceivable he could do worse than Napoli's .598 against righties in MLB.

I think that Nava gets one more shot at coming up and being a useful player(assuming he is healthy) and gets some starts at 1B against righties after the allstar break.

The thing is getting him on the roster, they will have to send a pitcher down to fit him.

I don't think they actually need 13 pitchers, especially given the much hyped advantage of having the AAA team within a short drive of the big league club.

As for Shaw v. Napoli, a .598 OPS is basically carried by his ability to take a walk in about 10% of ABs against RHP. Shaw has always been a strong OBP guy and has a .345 OBP in AAA against RHP, so Shaw maintaining roughly the same OBP is pretty realistic. Further, the entire point would be for Shaw to give a chance at some production over the two to three weeks needed for Nava to get ready for another shot, so we're talking about 45-60 ABs. Losing about one base per game over that time frame isn't going to make or break the team, and that would be if Shaw was a .000 OPS player, which seems pretty unlikely.

Additionally, while Shaw is struggling some in AAA this year he did have over 200 ABs against RHP in AAA last year with a .291/.348/.502 line. He has hit RHP at the AAA level effectively before over a legitimate sample.

jscola85 · Jul 6, 2015

Seems another option could be to have Sandoval play 1st, Holt at 3rd and use an OF or Hanley in left, Betts in CF, and De Aza / Bradley / Victorino in RF. If the team is going to cut bait more or less on Napoli (either completely or against righties), that feels a lot more realistic than calling up Travis Shaw while he has done nothing in Pawtucket to suggest he can handle MLB pitching.

jscola85 · Jul 6, 2015

That's certainly a possibility as well - Holt has played there in a pinch before and he was a bit of an adventure at 3rd last year anyways.

Drek717 · Jul 6, 2015

jscola85 said:
Seems another option could be to have Sandoval play 1st, Holt at 3rd and use an OF or Hanley in left, Betts in CF, and De Aza / Bradley / Victorino in RF. If the team is going to cut bait more or less on Napoli (either completely or against righties), that feels a lot more realistic than calling up Travis Shaw while he has done nothing in Pawtucket to suggest he can handle MLB pitching.

I'd agree with the following post that Sandoval at 3B and Holt at 1B seems like the better choice, Sandoval's fielding is being over-critiqued due to a small sample size and an injury he played through, he's been looking pretty good of late.

As for Shaw, my reason for bringing him up is that Napoli should be out of thelineup against RHP and the club still needs a viable 10th man. I think Holt's ability to give everyone a periodic day of rest is worth more than locking him in at 1B. Doing so locks you into Marrero as the backup at 2B, SS, and 3B with Victorino against RHP as the OF depth. I think the odds are fairly good that Shaw could outhit either of them in a RHP specific role.

Also, the notion that a guy needs to be raking in AAA to earn a callup is, in my opinion, a flawed way of viewing players in Shaw's position. There have been a good many players who saw either no drop off in moving from AAA to the majors, or some who have even had better ML seasons than they ever posted in AAA. The Red Sox have a few noteworthy examples they've moved in Brandon Moss, Josh Reddick, and Hanley Ramirez (never played in AAA but his ML slash line is substantially higher than his AA slash line). Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson are a pair of high performers with similar track records, both with ML careers that are equal or better than their AA and AAA production. Some guys are AAA all-stars who can never adjust to the ML level but there are also guys who never really put it together in AAA only to suddenly have everything click in the majors. If the Sox always require every prospect to destroy AAA before they can depose a veteran with a sub-.600 OPS, especially during a season in which we're last in the division and hoping to find a spark in the lineup, then this club will never land any of the late bloomers we envy other clubs "finding".

In short, Napoli is so damn bad right now that we're better off rolling the dice on Shaw and maybe even Cecchini than standing pat and taking our lumps. Cecchini is probably a great example of this as this is the second year in a row where he's sucked through June, both times during what appear to be significant tinkering with his swing. It makes sense as the kid has been told repeatedly he doesn't hit with enough power to be a real prospect, but last year when he went back to doing what he did best he suddenly turned in around in August, was called up in September, and in a small sample handled himself quite well at the ML level. At this rate we're likely going to run him out of options or trade him for peanuts, only to see him put it together with some other team and be the next Josh Donaldson because we'd all rather watch Mike Napoli fail four times in a row and misplay ground balls because Cecchini hasn't "earned" a promotion. He's a warm body with upside, that's more than we can say for our current first baseman.

Ok, I guess not so short, pardon the rant.

jscola85 · Jul 6, 2015

I'd rather see what the Sox could trade for or pick up on the waiver wire. Just don't see Shaw as a viable option when he can barely stay above a .700 OPS in AAA. Someone like Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche or Ike Davis would be preferable, none of them costing an arm and a leg.

WenZink · Jul 6, 2015

Lou Merloni made a great point about Napoli on CSNNE. After the All Star Break, the Sox open with 4 games versus the Angels. Napoli has pounded the Angels, both with Texas and the Sox. It's like he imagines the image of Fat Scioscia on every ball as it comes out of the opposing pitcher's hand. It makes no sense at all, but it's a good hunch. Maybe with a mental-health break during the ASG, Napoli comes back in a good way vs the Angels. If not, then he's done. And if he hits 4 homers in the series, like he did vs the Angels earlier this year, then he might actually have some trade value.-- especially to the Astros, who have 10 games left with their divsion rivals, the LA of A.

Byrdbrain · Jul 6, 2015

Yeah Merloni was saying the same thing on the radio and I think it is a reasonable take.
Ortiz starts at least one of the games in FL as well as Sunday and Napoli starts the other games. Then you give Nap all four in Anaheim as a last chance opportunity, if he rakes they he stays. If he doesn't then you have some options as Pedey should be back and Nava may be available as well.

joe dokes · Jul 6, 2015

Maybe with a mental-health break during the ASG, Napoli comes back in a good way vs the Angels. If not, then he's done. And if he hits 4 homers in the series, like he did vs the Angels earlier this year, then he might actually have some trade value.-- especially to the Astros, who have 10 games left with their divsion rivals, the LA of A.

The mental health break is probably a good thing. But the Cardinals may have hacked the Astros' computers, but they didn't steal Luhnow's brain. They aren't going to say, "Oh look, he's turned it around" based on one series any more than we are. And they aren't going to give up much for a guy who will help them in 10 games. He could hit 15 HRs in 4 games at LAA next week, and his trade value won't be any higher than it is today.

Philip Jeff Frye · Jul 6, 2015

WenZink said:
Lou Merloni made a great point about Napoli on CSNNE. After the All Star Break, the Sox open with 4 games versus the Angels. Napoli has pounded the Angels, both with Texas and the Sox. It's like he imagines the image of Fat Scioscia on every ball as it comes out of the opposing pitcher's hand. It makes no sense at all, but it's a good hunch. Maybe with a mental-health break during the ASG, Napoli comes back in a good way vs the Angels. If not, then he's done. And if he hits 4 homers in the series, like he did vs the Angels earlier this year, then he might actually have some trade value.-- especially to the Astros, who have 10 games left with their divsion rivals, the LA of A.

I love all of these Jedi Mind Tricks that we're going to be able to pull on these stupid teams that are going to ignore mounds of evidence to the contrary and conclude that the terrible players of whom we are sick have real value.

WenZink · Jul 6, 2015

Philip Jeff Frye said:
I love all of these Jedi Mind Tricks that we're going to be able to pull on these stupid teams that are going to ignore mounds of evidence to the contrary and conclude that the terrible players of whom we are sick have real value.

Sorry to disappoint you, but there are no "Jedi Mind Tricks" going on here. Have you seen Napoli's stats vs the Angels? over a 1.100 OPS in 200 PA. 30 XBH, including 18 homeruns, even though they've walked him 33 times in those 200 PA.

Houston's lead over the Angels is down to just 3 games with ten games remaining, head-to-head. It doesn't take mind-tricks to realize that Napoli would be a huge boost to the Astros, if Nap can still show that he pounds the Angels. Did you happen to notice Chris Carter at 1B this weekend?

Just to add, the Angels have two left-handed pitchers in their rotation that are susceptible to HRs. (Wilson/Santiago) and a 3rd lefty (Heaney) is currently filling in for the injured Weaver. Napoli has a real tactical-advantage to the Astros, especially if he comes up big vs LA of A, after the AS break.

Red(s)HawksFan · Jul 6, 2015

WenZink said:
Sorry to disappoint you, but there are no "Jedi Mind Tricks" going on here. Have you seen Napoli's stats vs the Angels? over a 1.100 OPS in 200 PA. 30 XBH, including 18 homeruns, even though they've walked him 33 times in those 200 PA.

Houston's lead over the Angels is down to just 3 games with ten games remaining, head-to-head. It doesn't take mind-tricks to realize that Napoli would be a huge boost to the Astros, if Nap can still show that he pounds the Angels. Did you happen to notice Chris Carter at 1B this weekend?

Just to add, the Angels have two left-handed pitchers in their rotation that are susceptible to HRs. (Wilson/Santiago) and a 3rd lefty (Heaney) is currently filling in for the injured Weaver. Napoli has a real tactical-advantage to the Astros, especially if he comes up big vs LA of A, after the AS break.

If the selling point to the Astros is he gives them a big boost in their nine remaining games with the Angels, is that enough to balance the other 60-odd games they'll have to carry his near-useless self on the roster against other teams? Enough for them to give the Red Sox anything of note in return?

By the same token, Napoli has nearly as good a career line against the Yankees (68 G, 277 PA, 17 HR, 1.029 OPS) and, hey, the Red Sox too (38 G, 144 PA, 15 HR, 1.075 OPS). Maybe they can push him on the Orioles or the Rays?

And frankly, I don't buy into the notion that Napoli turns into another hitter when he faces the Angels. I mean, if it were that easy to turn it on just based on the uniform or the manager in the opposing dugout, why can't he simply flip that switch for every opponent? Maybe Scoiscia still doesn't respect him and pitches him like a non-threat and he tees off, or maybe it's just a matter of comfort level in the ballparks...he hit in Angel Stadium for years, and he's always hit well in Arlington and Fenway so the Angels are the unfortunate team in the middle of that Venn diagram. He has pretty poor numbers at Minute Maid Park though, so maybe he's not quite the Angel-wrecking machine in the six home games the Astros have left with them.

WenZink · Jul 6, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
If the selling point to the Astros is he gives them a big boost in their nine remaining games with the Angels, is that enough to balance the other 60-odd games they'll have to carry his near-useless self on the roster against other teams? Enough for them to give the Red Sox anything of note in return?

By the same token, Napoli has nearly as good a career line against the Yankees (68 G, 277 PA, 17 HR, 1.029 OPS) and, hey, the Red Sox too (38 G, 144 PA, 15 HR, 1.075 OPS). Maybe they can push him on the Orioles or the Rays?

And frankly, I don't buy into the notion that Napoli turns into another hitter when he faces the Angels. I mean, if it were that easy to turn it on just based on the uniform or the manager in the opposing dugout, why can't he simply flip that switch for every opponent? Maybe Scoiscia still doesn't respect him and pitches him like a non-threat and he tees off, or maybe it's just a matter of comfort level in the ballparks...he hit in Angel Stadium for years, and he's always hit well in Arlington and Fenway so the Angels are the unfortunate team in the middle of that Venn diagram. He has pretty poor numbers at Minute Maid Park though, so maybe he's not quite the Angel-wrecking machine in the six home games the Astros have left with them.

If you looked at the stats I gave, 33 walks in 200 PA, I doubt that Scioscia "doesn't respect him." Emotion plays at least a small part of the game. Napoli is an emotional player. And as for Napoli being "near-useless," even in this worst of years, he still has an OPS over .800 vs lefties, so he makes a perfect platoon partner with Chris Carter. Not to mention he's a veteran, with a reputation as being good in the clubhouse, and with the Astros being a very young team that has never been in this position before.

In order to see Napoli as a good tactical weapon for 1/7th of their games, is no different than when AL East rivals used to get that extra lefty-specialist in order to try and neutralize prime-time David Ortiz.

AB in DC · Jul 6, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
If the selling point to the Astros is he gives them a big boost in their nine remaining games with the Angels, is that enough to balance the other 60-odd games they'll have to carry his near-useless self on the roster against other teams? Enough for them to give the Red Sox anything of note in return?

Frankly, anything more than a bag of balls would be a good deal for the Sox.

geoduck no quahog · Jul 6, 2015

Speaking of mind tricks, what on earth makes anyone think a record against a specific team means anything but squat. It's the stupidist fake stat in all of baseball. There is no stupider stat.

Napoli's record is against certain Angel pitchers in certain situations. Does anyone on this board really think a player can "turn it on" (theoretically after "turning it off") due to the color of another teams' uniforms? Wha?

Let's take a look, shall we?

- He has 5 hits and 3 walks against the Angels this year
- He had 2 hits and 6 walks against them last year
- 4 hits and 4 walks in 2013

That's 11 hits and 13 walks over 1,173 plate appearances against different pitchers. home and away and at different times in their careers.

Stop.

Philip Jeff Frye · Jul 6, 2015

So Napoli somehow can use his anger at Mike Scoiscia to motivate himself to reach a superhuman level of performance against the Angels, but in he is helpless in the face of an offensively disasterous performance that has helped sink his team's chances and likely ruined the chance that he will get anything more than a non-roster invite to somebody's spring training next year? Yeah, that makes sense.

DanoooME · Jul 6, 2015

WenZink said:
If you looked at the stats I gave, 33 walks in 200 PA, I doubt that Scioscia "doesn't respect him." Emotion plays at least a small part of the game. Napoli is an emotional player. And as for Napoli being "near-useless," even in this worst of years, he still has an OPS over .800 vs lefties, so he makes a perfect platoon partner with Chris Carter. Not to mention he's a veteran, with a reputation as being good in the clubhouse, and with the Astros being a very young team that has never been in this position before.

In order to see Napoli as a good tactical weapon for 1/7th of their games, is no different than when AL East rivals used to get that extra lefty-specialist in order to try and neutralize prime-time David Ortiz.

Carter is a RHH too, so how exactly are you platooning them?

nvalvo · Jul 6, 2015

The classic Angels/non-Angels platoon.

WenZink · Jul 7, 2015

Philip Jeff Frye said:
So Napoli somehow can use his anger at Mike Scoiscia to motivate himself to reach a superhuman level of performance against the Angels, but in he is helpless in the face of an offensively disasterous performance that has helped sink his team's chances and likely ruined the chance that he will get anything more than a non-roster invite to somebody's spring training next year? Yeah, that makes sense.

It does. Napoli has been doing it against the Angels for 5 years, with two different teams, over 200 PA. To ignore it makes no sense at all. My guess is that he's better able to focus and anticipate against Scioscia. Reports, in the wake of the Dipoto resignation, alleged that Scioscia largely ignores scouting reports, and has his pitchers throw in a consistent pattern, always keep the ball down, for instance. As a player that caught for Sciosia, it's possible that Napoli has better anticipation vs a Scioscia-managed staff and is able to "guess" successfully in certain situations. He knows what Scioscia has instructed the pitchers what to do.

Toronto hitters have a .750 slugging pct vs Tazawa. Make sense to you? And Tazawa's sample is just against 129 PAs.

When I was a kid, there was a Tiger's RHP, Frank Lary, who was nick-named, the "Yankee Killer." He was a decent pitcher, but nothing special. He went 12 games over .500 (128-116) in his career (1954-1965), but was 28-13 vs the Yankees, during a decade where the Yankees pretty much had their way with every other team in the AL. Even as a 10 year old, it was hard to accept that such a thing as a "Yankee Killer" existed. In his second year as a starter, he had the best year of his career, did pitch great against the Yankees, going 5-1 vs them. And for the next 10 years, he seemed to benefit from great run support whenever the Tigers went up against the NYY. Maybe after his early success, Lary became convinced he was, indeed, a Yankee killer, or maybe it was his teammates that bought into it.

The phenomena of a player "killing" another team, or vice versa has always existed. Sometimes there may be a sensical basis (like Napoli having insight into Scioscia's pitching strategy), or in some cases it might just be a player having early success and acquiring confidence that enables better focus. But to deny that these cases don't exist, state they make no sense and cry "Stop before my head 'splodes!" is just ignorance.

WenZink · Jul 7, 2015

DanoooME said:
Carter is a RHH too, so how exactly are you platooning them?

oops, A bridge too far. Wrong Chris Carter!

kieckeredinthehead · Jul 7, 2015

Napoli hits well against the Angels because Scioscia always had a soft spot for him and instructs his pitchers to lob it in. In some alternate universe.

The Gray Eagle · Jul 7, 2015

We don't need a set lineup and I doubt that we will have one. There are a lot of players on this team with weaknesses and issues who also have strengths, so we should go into each game trying to maximize the roster's strengths and minimize the weaknesses.

Victorino is going to start a lot of games while he is healthy, but he should be given plenty of time off too to try to keep him healthy as long as possible. De Aza should be out there often against righties, but not as a straight platoon.

Napoli shouldn't start against righties anymore. But he might be useful as a starter against lefties and a pinch hitter after the other team goes to a LOOGY, and as a defensive replacement if Ortiz starts at first base. Going forward, he should be given a reduced role against lefties only, and he will need to show that he can at least help us like that. If not, he needs to be released and we need to bring in someone else for that role.

Ortiz isn't going to be a pure platoon player, but he needs to be rested from time to time against lefties. Sandoval has shown some life against lefties recently, so he will similarly not be a platoon player, but he should also be rested frequently against them.

Nava is going to be coming back soon, and he should get a last shot to show he can help us as a part-timer, playing some first base against RHP. If he can't get it done, he will have to be replaced with someone else too.

Hanley should DH whenever Ortiz is not the DH, whether Ortiz is out or playing 1B.

Holt's versatility is a great bonus, and we need to use it effectively. He can play third against some lefties, and all over the field to keep him in the lineup most days. When he goes into one of his slumps, he can sit for a while. Last year, he kept playing every inning of every game even when he went into a long slump. Shouldn't happen this year. Occasional rest might help him from slumping for a long stretch like last year.

With Holt as one of our best players and with all the issues some of our players have against lefties, and of course inevitable injuries, we should rarely use the same lineup for two days in a row. Continually mixing and matching will make the most out of this current roster.

Drek717 · Jul 7, 2015

jscola85 said:
I'd rather see what the Sox could trade for or pick up on the waiver wire. Just don't see Shaw as a viable option when he can barely stay above a .700 OPS in AAA. Someone like Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche or Ike Davis would be preferable, none of them costing an arm and a leg.

I agree completely that it would be worth exploring another alternative at the deadline, assuming they have 2016 control, but teams aren't moving someone like Lind or LaRoche earlier than the deadline for a mid-tier prospect. They'd much rather sit it out and see if one of the major contenders loses their 1B and gets desperate right up until the end of July. In the interim we need to stop giving Napoli any ABs against RHP. That starts with someone like Shaw, a 26 year old post-prospect we already have in-house, a good defensive rep who can even play a bit of 3B in a pinch if needed, and a high OBP approach. Maybe he can't hack it. Maybe he's one of those guys who keep their BA at AAA norms and suddenly find power in the majors, turning into a ~.800 OPS guy. We won't know until we try. The only thing we've proven with certainty this season is that Napoli has fallen off that last steep cliff when it comes to hitting RHP.

And just as an FYI, Shaw has been recalled and is apparently starting at 1B tonight. So maybe the winds of change are starting to blow. Hope he does well, but I'd rather risk failure with the unknown instead of accept failure from the known.

grimshaw · Jul 8, 2015

Ortiz is balking at the prospect of playing 1B per his conversation with Rob Bradford, so I'm not sure how long that will last.
I'm sure it's a combination of risking getting hurt and losing his vesting option and/or not looking so hot as a first baseman. It's irritating and understandable at the same time because this is what he is.

With Napoli seemingly out of the picture, at least in the short term, as well as not hearing a peep out of the idea of moving Hanley there mid-season, you've got to think they'll be looking to add a 1B regardless of if they are still in it or not at the deadline.

jasail · Jul 8, 2015

While I disagree with David going public with that, I've come to expect he speaks his mind and I fully understand and to some extent agree with where he is coming from. Having to use him for any extent at 1B is a roster/scouting problem. They went into this year with an aging Napoli coming off a bad 2nd half in 2014 and serious offseason facial surgery, the corpse of Allen Craig and Daniel Nava as 1B options. Now that a likely, albeit difficult, outcome occurred the only option is to play Ortiz there on occasion. Granted this situation has been exacerbated by Pedroia's injury forcing Holt into full time 2B duty and the failed Hanley in LF experiment. However, they didn't and still haven't made a move for a fungible AAAA guy to fill the other half of the platoon and it's not like Napoli just fell off the cliff, he's been bad since the jump. While this isn't close to the roster neglect of having Breslow on this team, it's not ideal roster management. Too many square pegs and too many round holes on the 40 man. Can't fault JF for doing it, Ortiz be damned, he's just trying to field the best lineup possible.

Savin Hillbilly · Jul 8, 2015

jasail said:
However, they didn't and still haven't made a move for a fungible AAAA guy to fill the other half of the platoon

Travis Shaw's mommy is mad at you.

Although perhaps she shouldn't be; he has yet to establish that he merits the fourth A. Still, there's at least a chance he can hit RHH better than Napoli.

grimshaw · Jul 8, 2015

It is really amazing they don't even have a Justin Bour type in their system. He was 26 before even getting a shot, even though he was probably better than Garrett Jones last year. 25th round pick too. He's perfectly fine.

Drek717 · Jul 8, 2015

grimshaw said:
It is really amazing they don't even have a Justin Bour type in their system. He was 26 before even getting a shot, even though he was probably better than Garrett Jones last year. 25th round pick too. He's perfectly fine.

We do. His name is Travis Shaw. He's 25. He hit equal or better than Bour at every level while reaching each level a year earlier throughout his minor league career until AAA when Bour played in the PCL.

Again, we keep acting surprised that the Red Sox can't find these kinds of organizational filler types who suddenly produce, yet we NEVER give mLers with the exact profile those guys typically come from a chance to play.

Should we ignore the value of AAA performance? Hell no. But if a guy shows a specific skill set, like say being a good OBP grinder who does well against RHPs and plays solid 1B defense, maybe just maybe it's worth letting him play 1st over a veteran with a <.600 OPS and shitty defense when we're already 5+ games back. Just an idea. Might occasionally run into one.

Savin Hillbilly · Jul 8, 2015

Rudy Pemberton said:
The Sox should play the guy with a 684 OPS in AAA over the guy with a 652 OPS in the majors, because...why? Sure, maybe they "run into one", but is there any real reason to think that Shaw would outperform even Napoli the rest of the way? Shaw has a career SLG <400 at AAA.

This is one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is to look at Napoli's splits and say "this guy has to platoon," and then look for the best available platoon partner in the organization.

In other words, the question is not "is Travis Shaw better than Mike Napoli?" The question is "is a platoon of Travis Shaw and Mike Napoli better than any other option the Sox currently have?"

grimshaw · Jul 8, 2015

Drek717 said:
We do. His name is Travis Shaw. He's 25. He hit equal or better than Bour at every level while reaching each level a year earlier throughout his minor league career until AAA when Bour played in the PCL.

You mean aside from the past year+ where Shaw hasn't done much of anything but regress and Bour has gotten it done? The PCL has nothing to do with what Bour has done this year. Travis Shaw hasn't earned a promotion in any way.

Bigpupp · Jul 8, 2015

grimshaw said:
You mean aside from the past year+ where Shaw hasn't done much of anything but regress and Bour has gotten it done? The PCL has nothing to do with what Bour has done this year. Travis Shaw hasn't earned a promotion in any way.

If you look at his stats from the entire year then yes Shaw hasn't earned a promotion. But in June he hit .318/.375/.394. It's not perfect but it's a lot better then what the Sox are getting out of Napoli.

Drek717 · Jul 8, 2015

grimshaw said:
You mean aside from the past year+ where Shaw hasn't done much of anything but regress and Bour has gotten it done? The PCL has nothing to do with what Bour has done this year. Travis Shaw hasn't earned a promotion in any way.

When Bour was 25 he spent the entire year in AA. Travis Shaw moved up to AAA halfway through his age 24 season. Also, Travis Shaw had an .850 OPS against RHP in AAA for the second half of last year, so in the last year he moved from AA to AAA and did exactly what we need a low cost 1B to do, hit RHP. But hey, we all define "regression" differently.

And if one mediocre stint in AAA is regression and the end of a guy's career how exactly do you explain Brock Holt? He put up a .636 in his first year in Pawtucket at the tender age of 25 himself. Seems to have found a way to rebound from that.

Personally, I think the idea that guys in AAA "earn" promotions is fucking stupid. Guys in AAA are either high end prospects you're looking for enough growth out of to move them onto the 25 at the first opportunity (Bogaerts, Betts, EdRod, Johnson) or they're the depth of the organization (Holt, Marrero, Barnes, Bradley, Shaw, Cecchini). By this "earned his promotion" standard what did Devin Marrero do to get called up over Jemile Weeks or some waiver wire ML veteran? Why hasn't Bradley "earned" his way back onto the ML roster? It simply isn't a legitimate way to use the AAA roster, and there is no consistency in it being used that way. AAA production is not a reliable enough indicator of ML production to make it so.

Rudy Pemberton said:
The Sox should play the guy with a 684 OPS in AAA over the guy with a 652 OPS in the majors, because...why? Sure, maybe they "run into one", but is there any real reason to think that Shaw would outperform even Napoli the rest of the way? Shaw has a career SLG <400 at AAA.

He also had a .502 SLG in his single largest contiguous sample size against AAA pitching against the only split we care about, RHPs.

Also, there are more examples than I can count of guys with mediocre AAA numbers maintaining or improving on those numbers in the majors. AAA isn't MLB. The presumption that every player is what his MLEs suggest he's supposed to be is the single most idiotic thing this board and the Red Sox as a club have bought into. None of Josh Reddick, Brandon Moss, or Daniel Murphy ended up being what their MLEs said they were supposed to be. Kelly Shoppach wasn't anything amazing, but he was worth far more than what his MLE projections said he was supposed to be because he hit ML pitching at the close to the same mediocre rate he hit AAA pitching instead of sub-Mendoza like his MLEs suggested. Jose Iglesias isn't looking like what his MLEs said he was supposed to be. The list of solid ML contributors this club has given up for peanuts because they weren't killing AAA is frankly staggering. That coupled with a painful lack of patience when breaking in young players is why we so often see clubs do pretty well when sifting through our cast offs.

So when all of you are asking "how come this organization never finds a guy like Bour?" you only have the over-reliance on MLEs to blame. This club has spent a good chunk of the last decade robbing themselves of good organizational depth simply because we aren't willing to consider that some guys DO actually out-perform their AA and AAA stats when they make it to the show, if even by just a little.

Savin Hillbilly said:
This is one way to look at it. Another way to look at it is to look at Napoli's splits and say "this guy has to platoon," and then look for the best available platoon partner in the organization.

In other words, the question is not "is Travis Shaw better than Mike Napoli?" The question is "is a platoon of Travis Shaw and Mike Napoli better than any other option the Sox currently have?"

And this gets us to the real heart of the matter vis a vis Travis Shaw. What would you rather see, Mike Napoli continue to flounder against RHP, Ortiz play 1B until he gets hurt, or a Travis Shaw/Mike Napoli platoon that might still suck, or might actually, you know, not suck. Only until Daniel Nava is tuned up enough to deserve a shot of his own of course. Make a change and risk failure, or stay the course and be assured it. Doesn't seem like that hard of a choice to me.

Rasputin · Jul 9, 2015

I'm wondering if we could use Swihart to platoon with with Nap. I'd hate to ask a rookie to try to learn a new position, but he's got the atheticism to do it. He'd get some ABs, get to work with Hanigan on pitch calling, get some time behind the plate.

Buch would get to throw to Leon. Porcello would get to throw to Hanigan. He'd probably hit better than Napoli's .598 against righties. It would be a mess and I'd want to get Swihart more time behind the plate, but it might be an option.

joe dokes · Jul 9, 2015

grimshaw said:
Ortiz is balking at the prospect of playing 1B per his conversation with Rob Bradford, so I'm not sure how long that will last.
I'm sure it's a combination of risking getting hurt and losing his vesting option and/or not looking so hot as a first baseman. It's irritating and understandable at the same time because this is what he is.

You're "sure" and your irritated?

Lets not make too many mountains out of too few molehills. This "balking" was his pointing out that he's 39, he played once in the field in 3 months, he's got a recent history of leg issues, and he's sore as shit the next day. So far he's played 2 games, both before an off day. There is ZERO indication that he won't do it again when asked. But its probably not in the team's best interest to have one of the teams better power hitter have sore legs.

smastroyin · Jul 9, 2015

Yes, and despite the death knells, Ortiz is 253/387/552 over the last 28 days. It's still wishcasting to hope he ends up figuring out lefties maybe, but he's got a valuable role against RHP.

The big problem of course is Napoli, who could be a useful platoon partner but it sucks to blow two roster spots on DH. The second biggest problem is Hanley's fielding, which is really the only thing that makes Ortiz at 1B attractive.

It's too bad that JBJ didn't have de Aza's hot streak. My intention is not to open that debate here as well, just to point out that a good JBJ playing full-time and Victorino platooning with Ortiz though positional changes is probably the best solution for the team along with replacing Napoli. As it stands, I think you can argue successfully that Victorino's advantage over de Aza in the field (particularly at Fenway) is worth giving up some offense.

Merkle's Boner · Jul 9, 2015

In terms of the topic of this thread, now that Pedey is supposedly coming back, I really hope to see this lineup at least once over the weekend:

Betts CF
Pedroia 2B
Bogaerts SS
Ortiz 1B
Ramirez DH
Sandoval 3B
Holt LF
Victorino RF
Hanigan C

AB in DC · Jul 9, 2015

My guess is that Farrell will continue to start Ortiz at 1B only on games before an off-day.

(edit: That would be 7/12, 8/2, 8/9, 8/12, 8/26. Then presumably one or two games of the series @Mets 8/28-8/30.)

(edit: Unless facing a LHP starter of course)

SouthernBoSox · Jul 9, 2015

I think I like keeping Holt up top more because of his at bats and on base ability. Mookie has actually been one of the better RISP batters on the team. Because Pablo still hasn't "turned it on" I think moving Mooke down helps lengthen the line up a lot.

V. RHP

Holt 1B
Pedroia 2B
Bogaerts SS
Ortiz DH
Ramirez LF
Betts CF
Sandoval 3B
Victorino RF
Hanigan C

V. LHP
Holt LF
Pedroia 2B
Bogaerts SS
Hanley DH
Napoli 1B
Betts CF
Victorino RF
Sandoval 3B
Hannigan C

I will say though, once you start playing with it, there is a lot of interchangeable parts you could put in the top half of the order. And that's a really good thing. Betts, Xander, Holt, and Pedroia are going to be fun to watch the next few years.

AB in DC · Jul 9, 2015

I like the way you think, but no way is Napoli batting 5th in the order any more, even against LHPs.

grimshaw · Jul 9, 2015

joe dokes said:
You're "sure" and your irritated?

Lets not make too many mountains out of too few molehills. This "balking" was his pointing out that he's 39, he played once in the field in 3 months, he's got a recent history of leg issues, and he's sore as shit the next day. So far he's played 2 games, both before an off day. There is ZERO indication that he won't do it again when asked. But its probably not in the team's best interest to have one of the teams better power hitter have sore legs.

Let's not make a mountain out of what I actually said. . .
I said it was irritating and understandable at the same time. It would be nice if he just said the right things, did what was asked of him, realize their place in the standings, and trust that they aren't going to run him into the ground. I understand because of all of the above, but can still be annoyed at his response.

geoduck no quahog · Jul 9, 2015

Lineup construction is a challenge now.

- Betts doesn't hit into double plays. He has speed. He has some power. His recent numbers are more indicative than his season numbers.
- Holt is a perfect LH #2 hitter. Sees a lot of pitches. Controls the bat head. 379 OBP
- Pedroia is having a good year (but who knows how he's recovering). Average and power. 819 OPS
- Bogaerts is turning into the real thing and flumoxing pitchers. Will probably continue to hit between .290 and .310 unless he tires.
- Ortiz and Ramirez need to be 1-2 power guys L-R with men on base (hopefully with some speed) in front of them
- Sandoval only has 13 walks, but also only 40 K's. He can be relied on to put the bat on the ball and test the defense. Since batting solely LH, his average against LHP has greatly improved. (2/42 as a RHH, 12/36 as a LHH I believe)
- De Aza is hitting a remarkable .306 / .352 / .588 as a resurgent Red Sock (85 ab's) - with good defense and speed.

- Hanigan's a catcher
- Napoli's dormant
- Victorino: jury out (maybe still has some speed and pop)

There's your prime 11. Don't ask me how to best utilize the lineup because other than Napoli and Hanigan there are no holes, particularly when De Aza plays.

Ortiz-Ramirez need to be the power duo. Should they be 5-6 instead of 4-5?
Betts-Holt-Pedroia-Bogaerts seem to be your classic on base with some speed group, the kind you like hitting in front of slow power.
Sandoval and De Aza extend the lineup with LH bats

Napoli needs to sit except for defense and possibly LHP/pinch hitting
Victorino needs to play in order to find out if he can

11 hitters:

5 RHH
5 LHH
1 Napoli

Seriously - I can't figure this out because (a) someone's got to play 1B and (b) Holt's got to play somewhere and (x) needs to be in a prime spot

Stan Papi Was Framed · Jul 9, 2015

I wouldn't call Hanigan a hole in the lineup as of now either...puts together tough at bats, walks a lot. if Napoli is either out of the lineup or somehow improved, this can be a very tough lineup.

(sorry--was responding to this from geoduck: "Don't ask me how to best utilize the lineup because other than Napoli and Hanigan there are no holes, particularly when De Aza plays.")

KillerBs · Jul 9, 2015

SouthernBoSox said:
I think I like keeping Holt up top more because of his at bats and on base ability. Mookie has actually been one of the better RISP batters on the team. Because Pablo still hasn't "turned it on" I think moving Mooke down helps lengthen the line up a lot.

V. RHP

Holt 1B
Pedroia 2B
Bogaerts SS
Ortiz DH
Ramirez LF
Betts CF
Sandoval 3B
Victorino RF
Hanigan C

V. LHP
Holt LF
Pedroia 2B
Bogaerts SS
Hanley DH
Napoli 1B
Betts CF
Victorino RF
Sandoval 3B
Hannigan C

I will say though, once you start playing with it, there is a lot of interchangeable parts you could put in the top half of the order. And that's a really good thing. Betts, Xander, Holt, and Pedroia are going to be fun to watch the next few years.

Victorino over deAza vs RHPers?

Assuming that Hanley playing 1b is verboten (just because!) and no Bradley or Castillo, this strikes me as the best option

v RHPers
C-Swihart?
1b - Holt
2b - Pedroia
3b - Sandoval
ss- Xander
lf - Hanley
cf - Betts
rf- de Aza
dh - Ortiz

v LHPers

c - Hanigan
1b - Napoli
2b - Pedroia
3b - Sandoval/Holt?
ss - Xander
lf - Holt/Hanley?
cf - Betts
rf - Victorino
dh - Hanley/Ortiz

The lineup v LHPers concerns me somewhat. Setting aside the finances, perhaps Craig could fit vs LHPers in LF, pushing Holt to 3b, for some of those games.

Line up going Forward

Well-Known Member

The North remembers

loves the secret sauce

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

Member

New Member

Member

Member

Member

New Member

Member

New Member

OG Football Writing

not particularly consistent

Member

above replacement level

Member

New Member

New Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

loves the secret sauce

Member

Member

loves the secret sauce

Member

Member

Member

Will outlive SeanBerry

Member

simpering whimperer

Member

OG Football Writing

Member

OG Football Writing

Member

not particularly consistent

Member

New Member