Liverpool 2020-2021: John Henry Walks Alone

JimD

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The Athletic with a good piece about the problems with FSG's remote style of ownership:

Moore and Fenway Sports Group (FSG) benefited from the perception of a big “LFC family” but there are frustrated people within the club’s UK offices who speak of there being two Liverpool Football Clubs, one being on Merseyside and the other in Massachusetts. What happened before the ill-fated launch of the Super League encapsulated this feeling. Boston knew exactly what was happening. All but possibly one person based out of the Chapel Street office in Liverpool’s city centre did not. It is understandable why some within the club’s own organisation have described FSG in this instance particularly as kamikaze.
President Mike Gordon is supposed to be the conduit between Boston and Liverpool. Yet in his conversations last week with disappointed high-level, Merseyside-based officials, he was told by more than one person that FSG would never have contemplated attempting to pull off such a move if one of them lived within driving distance of Anfield.

As Moore learned in 2017, closer geographical ties increase your chances of knowing exactly what the score is.
Also, this certainly rings a bell with Red Sox fans and the never-ending ticket price hikes we've seen over the years at Fenway:

The instigators of the Super League hired a publicity strategist only two days before the 12 clubs signed a contract that threatened to rip up football. Given how terribly executed a plan it was, it might be tempting to see the whole thing as a moment of madness. At Liverpool especially, however, it is part of a pattern.

There is madness in agreeing to a new pricing structure that places the highest ticket at £77 and results in a mass stadium walk-out even though it would have only made the club less than an extra £25,000 a year. But FSG did that in 2016.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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So .. almost a perfect weekend from a Pool perspective (damn you City!)

Leicester is the target ... they have only three games left, all of which they can lose (ManU, Chelsea and Spurs) , but they have a 6 point lead, Liverpool with a game in hand. So what do they realistically have to do to make the CL spots?

Ideally, Liverpool win out ... but away at OT is a tall task .. I think they draw .. so Burnley, West Brom and Palace .. have to take max points. Will 10 points get it done? Leicester need to drop at least 3 points, which seems pretty likely (especially the Chelsea game). They could easily lose two. That could come down to GD which is also tight.
 

candylandriots

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So .. almost a perfect weekend from a Pool perspective (damn you City!)

Leicester is the target ... they have only three games left, all of which they can lose (ManU, Chelsea and Spurs) , but they have a 6 point lead, Liverpool with a game in hand. So what do they realistically have to do to make the CL spots?

Ideally, Liverpool win out ... but away at OT is a tall task .. I think they draw .. so Burnley, West Brom and Palace .. have to take max points. Will 10 points get it done? Leicester need to drop at least 3 points, which seems pretty likely (especially the Chelsea game). They could easily lose two. That could come down to GD which is also tight.
Sorry if I'm wrong here, but doesn't Liverpool get at least a wild card spot in the new UCL setup pretty much regardless of where they finish? I thought they didn't have to worry about the remainder of the season based on their previous success, but I could very well be misunderstanding the way the new tournament works.
 

swiftaw

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Sorry if I'm wrong here, but doesn't Liverpool get at least a wild card spot in the new UCL setup pretty much regardless of where they finish? I thought they didn't have to worry about the remainder of the season based on their previous success, but I could very well be misunderstanding the way the new tournament works.
The new CL format doesn’t start for a few years (2024?)
 

candylandriots

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The new CL format doesn’t start for a few years (2024?)
Well then, ok that makes more sense.

In the Super League thread I asked whether the 5% “European” revenue penalty only applies to CL/EL play. If Liverpool doesn’t qualify for a European spot, they would avoid the the penalty for attempting to join the league (other than the token amount for youth soccer)?
 

nolasoxfan

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It comes down to goal differential if ’Pool and Leicester win out, correct? Right now, the GD is +1 in favor of Leicester.
Time for Mo, Mané and Jota to turn up a gear. Must see matches the end of the way.
 

Pesky Pole

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It comes down to goal differential if ’Pool and Leicester win out, correct? Right now, the GD is +1 in favor of Leicester.
Time for Mo, Mané and Jota to turn up a gear. Must see matches the end of the way.
Actually, if Leicester and Liverpool win out, they both are top 4 and Chelsea needs to win the Champions League final to be the 5th PL team. If Leicester loses to Chelsea and beats Tottenham, it comes down to goal differential.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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If Liverpool does win their final three games, they will increase GD by at least 3 so they'll end up on 23 minimum and more likely 24-26.

If Leicester loses to Chelsea they will need to beat Spurs by three goals to get to 23 and obviously more to get to 24-26. This will be against a motivated Spurs team likely with a lot on the line themselves.

The bottom line is that realistically Liverpool is going to have a better GD in this scenario.
 

swiftaw

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Yeah, unless something weird happens Liverpool are in the top 4 if they win out.
 

koufax32

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So how to cheer in that match: a tie means Chelsea can be overcome, even if they beat Aston Villa but means Leicester can get out of reach by beating Tottenham. A Chelsea win means Leicester is get-able, even if LC beat Tottenham. A Leicester win almost assures that they can’t be overtaken, unless they lose to Tottenham while Chelsea would be in serious trouble.

So looks like a LC win leaves more paths available for LFC, right? Of course, the Reds need to play with their hair on fire for three more matches or else it’s all moot.
 

nolasoxfan

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Actually, if Leicester and Liverpool win out, they both are top 4 and Chelsea needs to win the Champions League final to be the 5th PL team. If Leicester loses to Chelsea and beats Tottenham, it comes down to goal differential.
Right. That's actually what I meant, but didn't type. I expect Chelsea to beat Leicester.
 

boca

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Nothing on here after yesterdays insane finish?

Thought everyone would be buzzing after that.
 

swiftaw

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So how to cheer in that match: a tie means Chelsea can be overcome, even if they beat Aston Villa but means Leicester can get out of reach by beating Tottenham. A Chelsea win means Leicester is get-able, even if LC beat Tottenham. A Leicester win almost assures that they can’t be overtaken, unless they lose to Tottenham while Chelsea would be in serious trouble.

So looks like a LC win leaves more paths available for LFC, right? Of course, the Reds need to play with their hair on fire for three more matches or else it’s all moot.
Heres a chart I created
41133
 

Tuff Ghost

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Opta's model has the following likelihoods of each team finishing top-4:
  • Chelsea: 69.5%
  • Leicester City: 69.3%
  • Liverpool: 58.9%
  • West Ham: 2.1%
  • Tottenham: 0.2%
Should be an interesting finish, particularly Chelsea vs Leicester City on Tuesday.

https://theanalyst.com/eu/2021/05/football-stats-blog-may-10/
Liverpool have jumped Chelsea & Leicester City in the Opta odds for top-4 now. The Alisson goal took them from 44% top-4 chance to 71.5%; about as important as a goal can get.
  • Liverpool: 71.5%
  • Chelsea: 64.4%
  • Leicester City: 64%
.@OptaJoe
71.5% - Liverpool now have a 71.5% chance of finishing in the Premier League top four this season, based on our predictor model. Before Alisson's 95th minute goal, this chance was just 44%. Moment. We reveal just how crucial Alisson's injury time goal could be for @LFC.
View: https://twitter.com/OptaJoe/status/1394243862982500353?s=20
 

SoxFanInCali

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Nothing on here after yesterdays insane finish?

Thought everyone would be buzzing after that.
We all did our buzzing in the game thread.

I said this in that thread, but one of my favorite parts of the moment is that, despite (until yesterday) a goalkeeper never scoring in the entire 129 year history of the club, the social media team had a goal graphic for Alisson ready to tweet out.

View: https://twitter.com/LFC/status/1393980901734891520
 
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SoxFanInCali

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Another crazy stat I heard in the postgame is that Alisson's goal was the 38th time Liverpool have scored a winning goal in the 90th minute or later in the Premier League era, which is 13 more times than any other club.
 

67YAZ

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Alllllison/I know West Brom was killing you/Alllllison/Your aim was true
 

coremiller

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One of the great things about the Allison goal is we've all seen the goalkeeper going up for the last-second corner a million times and it never, ever works. Until this one.
 

SocrManiac

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It struck me (again) as Alisson got into the area that the dude is a unit. Big boy with a great leap to have in the area.

I read some analysis that suggested that Big Sam is so regimented on defense that his guys had no clue what to do when Alisson came forward and there was no assigned marker. I'm not sure I buy that- teams must train for being down a man. The situation isn't significantly different. More likely, it was the 95' minute and who cares about the goofy-ass goalkeeper coming forward? Statistically speaking, it's almost not worth the effort.
 

67YAZ

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Forget the ESL, this deserves a points deduction. Why in the world does it need dayglo orange collar & cuffs?
 

SocrManiac

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The goal, as always, is to create differentiation to sell more shirts. I get it. I really do. After a hundred years of red shirts, it can be difficult to do something unique.

This just feels lazy. Again. The red seems like it might be better than this year, but how can you tell with that trim? I can't wait to read the designer's insane rationale for how the orange is a wonderful tie to something something. It's not. It's an eyesore.

There are a ton of retro kit manufacturers now. It would feel a little dishonest to get a non-vintage retro kit in a way, but if I was going to shell out cash on a shirt it looks like that'll be the route moving forward, Until Nike can make something remotely attractive there's absolutely no desire to encourage this direction.
 

SocrManiac

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Warning: Post may not age well

At least as a monochrome team, we don't have to worry about Nike taking stripes away (Juventus) or making the stripes into hoops (Barcelona).
 

swiftaw

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This year's looked like a Bayern knock-off, this one looks like a Roma knock-off
 

SoxFanInCali

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I only bought this season's shirt to get one with the gold champion patches. Hard pass on this one. I hate Nike so much.
 

Pesky Pole

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Isn't the club getting a percentage of the sales now too? So an awful choice like this could impact their bottom line. There is a zero chance I'll buy one of these. It probably also means the jackets and the like will have this accent color on them so I'll sit out the year.

I guess Man United fans can get even for our "someone left a red sock in the wash" jokes for those Pepto Bismol jerseys.
 

swiftaw

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I'm gald Nike added "NIKE" to the logo on the McDonald's kit. I was wondering what that swoosh looking thing was.
Its based on the 1982 away kit if I recall, which was made by Umbro and had not just the Umbro logo but also the word Umbro.
 

67YAZ

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Its based on the 1982 away kit if I recall, which was made by Umbro and had not just the Umbro logo but also the word Umbro.
Good memory. If they can win the league in this ugly number like they did in 82-83, then all is forgiven.

41273
 

fletcherpost

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I liked that strip. Wi the pin stripes. Dalglish rocked it fine.

The new Nike thing's a minger though.