Liverpool 2022/23: We Go Again

SoxFanInCali

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I'm already sick of reading how 4 losses in 63 games and 2 trophies is a lousy season. Disappointing end? Sure. But I personally couldn't have asked for any more effort and desire from anyone.

Time to see for FSG handles the Salah negotiations, and what future holds for Mane and Firmino.
 

PedroSpecialK

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I didn’t feel great about the UCL final and had a couple other things going on so I decided not to watch it. Glad I didn’t.

I’m in the same boat - tough to complain given how many matches the squad had to play. A couple of goals away from a quadruple ultimately, but it wasn’t to be.

Sounds like Mané is possibly off to Bayern
 

67YAZ

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2021-2022 was a great season. No regrets, no disappointments (other than Elliott losing almost a year to that horrific ankle break, but his bounce back was very impressive). The squad was unstoppable from January through April, and then slowed. AFCON certainly played a role, but i also think the team just wore down.

They trailed in 7 of their last 8 matches. Even though they only lost one of those, it was clear that injuries and fatigue were piling up. The squad was deep and there was a lot of rotation, but it felt like every match from news years on was a must win.

I suspect a mini-exodus will turn over the squad a bit. Origi is gone. I suspect Sadio will head to Bayern. Ox will likely look for a larger role, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Gomez does, too. Bobby likely stays, but some high pressing clubs will make inquires.

And then, of course, there’s Salah.

A defensive minded mid would be a valuable addition. Tchouameni is off to Madrid, but Sangare from PSV is being rumored and Florian Neuhaus has been a standing target for a couple years.

for another attacker, I’d love to see Jonathan David through the middle.

Aberdeen’s Calvin Ramsey is being lined up as TAA’s back up. Ramsey will have a lot of options that will have more clear paths to starting.
 

OCST

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2021-2022 was a great season. No regrets, no disappointments (other than Elliott losing almost a year to that horrific ankle break, but his bounce back was very impressive). The squad was unstoppable from January through April, and then slowed. AFCON certainly played a role, but i also think the team just wore down.

They trailed in 7 of their last 8 matches. Even though they only lost one of those, it was clear that injuries and fatigue were piling up. The squad was deep and there was a lot of rotation, but it felt like every match from news years on was a must win.

I suspect a mini-exodus will turn over the squad a bit. Origi is gone. I suspect Sadio will head to Bayern. Ox will likely look for a larger role, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Gomez does, too. Bobby likely stays, but some high pressing clubs will make inquires.

And then, of course, there’s Salah.

A defensive minded mid would be a valuable addition. Tchouameni is off to Madrid, but Sangare from PSV is being rumored and Florian Neuhaus has been a standing target for a couple years.

for another attacker, I’d love to see Jonathan David through the middle.

Aberdeen’s Calvin Ramsey is being lined up as TAA’s back up. Ramsey will have a lot of options that will have more clear paths to starting.
From a neutral- ok, a hostile- I don’t think there was enough rotation. Main XI was mostly there week in week out. Mane and Salah very heavy legged after AFCON and WCQ.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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From a neutral- ok, a hostile- I don’t think there was enough rotation. Main XI was mostly there week in week out. Mane and Salah very heavy legged after AFCON and WCQ.
Kernel of truth in this. When Diaz arrived it was mostly Jota who was rotated. Of course having Firmino hurt for most of the run in, they were pretty limited in what they could do. Even Origi had problems staying on the field. They collectively ran out of gas.
 

67YAZ

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Kernel of truth in this. When Diaz arrived it was mostly Jota who was rotated. Of course having Firmino hurt for most of the run in, they were pretty limited in what they could do. Even Origi had problems staying on the field. They collectively ran out of gas.
The Athletic has a piece up on Liverpool’s season by the numbers. 9 outfield players played over 3500 minutes this season and another 3 broke 2000.
 

SocrManiac

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Those numbers are a startling contrast to the perception of depth we (I?) felt the squad enjoyed. When you look at each position, it does start to feel startlingly thin.

Up front, a rotation of Jota/Firmino/Diaz/Salah/Mané looks great, but getting three of that group on-form simultaneously didn't happen often. Worse, their hot spells overlapped for the most part. Mané is obviously gone (thank you for your service). Diaz's arrival pushed him central and he's just not clinical enough to mop up the chances that were in front of him. Weirdly, I think Jota is. I can see a lot of Diaz/Jota/Salah next year and I'm fine with it. It would be nice to start cultivating the Mané/Salah replacement now, however.

The Salah quandary is difficult. He was the best player in the world for a period last year. He's aging, which will be exacerbated by AFCON every other year. I think it's more and more likely he plays out next year, has a fantastic season, the departs next summer on a free. That might be the "least bad" situation. The team doesn't get anything for him, but they also don't overpay for a guy that's unlikely to contribute his pay over the course of the next few years. I feel like the right thing to do is to invest in a couple of potential replacements and see where the cards land.

The midfield is where I felt the team were particularly vulnerable. Once you get past Thiago, Henderson, and Fabinho, the pieces don't fit the same way. Curtis Jones, Naby Keita (have we given him to SpaceX to be launched into the sun yet?), and Harvey Elliott are all stronger offensively. Ox was... Not good. I think both sides regret Gini's move to PSG. As far as I can tell, guys in the Fabinho/Thiago mold don't exactly grow on trees, but a strong box to box midfielder that can be relied upon defensively is needed.

Defensively, things feel somewhat okay if the status quo remains. A world class CB, two good CBs, and Joe Gomez. Gomez was supposed to be VVD's pairing moving forward, but injuries and Matip stunted that and shoved him outside. Robertson has a decent backup in Tsimikas. It's not a ton of depth, but a couple of dominoes can fall with cover.

Courtois put on a show, but I'd still take Alisson over him the way Liverpool are constructed. His incredible strength sweeping behind the backline transforms the entire side, allowing the line to push higher and enhancing the press's effectiveness. Kelleher is a fine backup and I don't see the need for an upgrade, VVD and his partner will need to drop deeper when he's in the side.

So, that means our wish list looks like every other side in the world with needs at 9, 11, and 6.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Liverpool should still be one of the best 3-4 teams in the world next year and along with City a cut above the rest in the PL. Klopp has gotten his team to a place that I really only associate with Ferguson in the PL, where a combination of self-belief, leadership within the squad, and thorough knowledge of the system allows the team to maintain a high level even when rotating pretty heavily or key players are quite jaded. That is so important for riding out potentially bad patches in a busy season. So I can't really see Liverpool falling off very badly, unless there is another truly massive injury crisis like two years ago.

I think Liverpool's big challenge is that its just really hard to replace world class players, even for a club that does a lot right in terms of scouting and analysis. Good recruitment generally allows you to avoid flops, make sure players fit the system, have the tools and mentality to be good players at the level, etc. That gets you Diogo Jota or Luis Diaz, who were good buys by any measure. But what determines whether your good buys actually turn out to be among the best 2-3 players in their world at their position, like Salah or VVD or Fabinho? Luck seems to weigh pretty heavily unless you're buying ready-made world class players costing a fortune.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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On team in general … as mentioned the midfield is the most in need of reinforcement.

I guess they would be looking for a Gini replacement - competent in both defence and attack.

Has the bloom gone off the rose for Tielemans? Last year it was reported Leicester wanted a fortune for him (60+) but the buzz seems to have died down.(The interwebs tell me he may be going to Arsenal)

Rice is obviously a pipe dream.

If Leeds had gone down I could have seen a bid for Kalvin Phillips … one would think that’s unlikely now?

So they may look abroad and sign some guy we’ve never heard of (who will, of course be surprisingly good - because that’s what they do)

Forwards:

So Mane is gone … looks like they will only sell if they get a decent price for him (+40m ?) AND they can find a replacement. The hot rumour is Nunez but there’s lots of competition. My favourite result would be a swap deal with Bayern for Lewa. Silly? Maybe not. He’s ancient but if you could sign him for a three year deal it might be an ideal solution. That would be some front line.

With both Mane and Origi leaving they’ll probably bring in a couple of guys - one established and one youngun.

On the depth mirage. The problem seemed to me that Diaz is at his best on the left. He doesn’t really help that much with rotation. Firmino is hurt all the time and who knows what’s up with Salah. Jota blows hot and cold. So if you want to rest Salah who plays?

The one good thing about Salah is he‘ll get five weeks off this winter (not going to the World Cup)
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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It’s hard to sift through so many disparate reports but it seems like a major theme post-match was fans being herded in certain directions, there being virtually no police presence after a certain point along their route to transport, and organized gangs just waiting at known locations en route mugging people. And people paid like 500-1000 euro a ticket for that treatment.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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It’s hard to sift through so many disparate reports but it seems like a major theme post-match was fans being herded in certain directions, there being virtually no police presence after a certain point along their route to transport, and organized gangs just waiting at known locations en route mugging people. And people paid like 500-1000 euro a ticket for that treatment.
Or - even worse - the cops watching disinterested as people were being mugged.
 

teddykgb

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I just don’t see the need for Liverpool to keep spending on midfielders. Someone like Bellingham may be an exception but Klopps system really just demands high energy box to box mids who will run all day and cover the fullbacks who get forward and try to play in the half spaces a midfielder would often occupy. Obviously complete midfielders who will graft aren’t growing on trees but if I’m a Liverpool fan I’m far more concerned with the attack losing it’s edge than I am another midfielder. Thiago has constant injury worries and Milner is older but like McGinn or Bissouma would shine at Liverpool just to throw some names out there. And Liverpools scouting has been on point and could probably identify a bunch of all action midfielders in other leagues who would come cheaper.

In my opinion, losing players on a free is one of the cardinal sins of the FFP world. City just went through a bunch of this by keeping the batch of stars until they retired or had no value (Yaya, Silva, Kompany, Aguero) and it puts you in an immediate hole in the transfer market net spend. I think you would have to cash in on Mane and either renew Salah for what he wants or sell him while you can recoup some funds to put in the bank to spend on replacements. But you might not generate 100m between selling both players and players of that caliber are expensive in the attacking positions.

Liverpool have been run almost impeccably so they may be able to pull this off but this is a needle that you’re faced with trying to thread. You’ll be strong no matter what with the fullbacks and VVD healthy and on form and I think Klopps system is wonderful at getting good attackers into space but Salah and Mane have clutched so many points from losing positions the last few years that those are some awfully difficult shoes to fill.
 
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Mighty Joe Young

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Pearce (via The Athletic) with an overview of potential ins and outs

https://theathletic.com/3342618/2022/06/01/liverpool-transfers-salah-premier-league/?source=user_shared_article

The Salah update is interesting.

- Mike Gordon (and not Julian Ward) is leading the contract negotiations

- It’s claimed Salah is willing to run down his contract if he doesn’t agree to a new deal . This , obviously would be a disaster.

- Secondly, he wants to stay in the Premier League if he does leave LFC . Newcastle? Chelsea??

- Thirdly, he’s open to signing a two year extension if the terms meet his expectations. Hallelujah ! Back up the truck and get it done!
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I wouldn’t be surprised if Newcastle have already told Salah that there is a 500k per week pot of gold waiting at the end of the Bosman rainbow. He has to be attractive to them as by far the highest profile player from the MENA region. And it would be a big statement of intent next summer.
 

SocrManiac

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This Liverpool administration will need to calculate the PR side of this. Salah’s wage demands simply won’t be in line with his on-field value. I don’t envy them in that situation.

I agree with @teddykgb that the FFP implications are probably the biggest piece of this. I don’t see how they can sell him this year without a clear replacement, I don’t think he’s good value to sign to an expensive extension (primarily due to AFCON + age). I’m starting to believe the noises made around Liverpool talking to Haaland and Mbappe may have been real (even if never realistic).
 

67YAZ

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Pearce (via The Athletic) with an overview of potential ins and outs

https://theathletic.com/3342618/2022/06/01/liverpool-transfers-salah-premier-league/?source=user_shared_article

The Salah update is interesting.

- Mike Gordon (and not Julian Ward) is leading the contract negotiations

- It’s claimed Salah is willing to run down his contract if he doesn’t agree to a new deal . This , obviously would be a disaster.

- Secondly, he wants to stay in the Premier League if he does leave LFC . Newcastle? Chelsea??

- Thirdly, he’s open to signing a two year extension if the terms meet his expectations. Hallelujah ! Back up the truck and get it done!
Deciphering a bit…a 15% raise would mean Liverpool offered Salah about £230k per week. To become the 6th highest player in the world, you’re looking at about Eden Hazard at £400k per week. Big gap.

But is Salah would sign for 2 years, I think that’s the price you have to pay.
 

ehaz

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For forwards, my favorite potential Mane replacement is Christopher Nkunku. He's going to be very expensive but Nkunku is an excellent finisher and passer, can play anywhere, and is a good fit. I also think Jonathan David from Lille is a good fit but a bit more raw/less proven than Nkunku. I kind of doubt Liverpool tries to pay the English premium for Jarrod Bowen and I think he's a far lesser player than Nkunku not to mention Sadio Mane.

For midfielders, I disagree that a defensive midfielder is the priority. Fabinho is great in that role and as the youngest of the midfielders starters at 28 years old, that's the one position I have no concerns about. On the other hand, you basically have three quality players to rotate on either side of Fabinho, but each has concerns. Jordan Henderson is 31 and is still a solid player but he's got a bit of an injury history. Thiago is also 31 and arguably a top 3 midfielder in the world, but he's made of glass. Naby Keita is 27 but he's inconsistent and made of glass. I think what Liverpool needs most is a young and talented #8. The team with and without Thiago in the lineup is night and day. Obviously, Thiago's don't grow on trees, but I think I'd rather Liverpool splurge on a star midfielder than a star forward. Not really sure who that player would be - it sounds like Jude Bellingham is staying at Dortmund for at least one more season.
 

candylandriots

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I did read something the other day that Nkuku wants to play in France, but the idea of getting Palace assassin Mané out of the EPL and Nkuku out of Leipzig sounds awfully appealing.
 

67YAZ

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Konate got his first senior call up after Varane was injured last match. Hope he gets a cap out of it, too.
 

67YAZ

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Rumors about Darwin Nunez hotting up, with outlets suggesting Benefica want €80-100m. Eye watering stuff.

But in digging around FBRef, I find that their similarity score shows Leipzig’s Nkunku has Salah, Diaz, & Mane as 3 of his top 6 comps. Not that Nkunku will come much cheaper, but that’s a real stylistic fit.

I just caught up with this excellent Milner interview by Alan Shearer. So happy to have Boring James back for another go round.
 

Pesky Pole

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All the regular journalists are now tweeting about Nunez. With the way the club typically works, you'd have to expect this resolves itself (one way or the other) fairly quickly. The agent change drama seems to be the one wildcard here as Nunez changes agents in the middle of all this transfer talk.

In related news, second bid for Mane is dismissed. Appears to have been 30M pounds with unattainable add-ons (requiring multiple Ballon D'Or's). Also sounds like Minamino is close to a departure for (up to) 17M pounds.
 

67YAZ

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All the regular journalists are now tweeting about Nunez. With the way the club typically works, you'd have to expect this resolves itself (one way or the other) fairly quickly. The agent change drama seems to be the one wildcard here as Nunez changes agents in the middle of all this transfer talk.
I’m also seeing that Benefica owe Almeria either 20% of the fee or if the profit from this transfer (Nunez came over for £24m) - Reports differ. So Benefica are going to drive a hard bargain and likely resist Liverpool’s typical performance-clause-heavy offers.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I have to say that Nunez to Liverpool at those kinds of figures would puzzle me a little bit.

I subscribe to an Arsenal patreon podcast that does these scouting videos using a service called Wyscout, where they produce videos on specific aspects of a player's game (shooting, passing, link up play, defensive actions, etc). They're interesting videos because you see the player in the same kind of situation over and over and they look through all available footage so you get a lot of highlights that aren't on the standard youtube compilations. Nunez is like a freight train running at defenses, a physical box presence, and clearly can score goals but when they looked at the video of Nunez and link up play it was like a horrorshow of clunky first touches and misplaced passes.

Klopp deserves BB-level trust at this point so if he truly wants him then I'm not going to doubt him. But it would definitely be a very different kind of CF than what Liverpool have been used to in players like Firmino and even Mane or Jota when played at CF that have great technique and excel at combining with the wing forwards and bringing them into play. Maybe that's the point, to have a very different and dynamic Plan B, like a Super Origi. But it seems like a lot of money for a Plan B, especially for a club that spends very wisely in general. On the other hand (I'm on like hand four at this point...), there aren't many ways to improve this team further to try to keep pace with City and this would be one.
 
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PedroSpecialK

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Biggest concern for me with Nunez isn't necessarily even his linkup play, which is lacking at this point in his career - guy can't stay onside. That doesn't matter much against teams that are parking the bus, and he'll be a help to have a clinical finisher in those fixtures, but against the City / PSG-tier clubs, he'd be a liability in developing the attack to MMS's point.

Maybe that's not a concern - thought process could be that they can hit Diaz / Salah to start the attack out wide, by the time the ball arrives centrally Nunez is level / behind it. In Klopp we trust indeed.
 

67YAZ

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Analyzing Anfield also pointed out that Nunez had a massive leap in his finishing this season, banging home an otherworldly 27% of his shots. Historically elite goal scorers like Kane & Messi average in the 15-20% range for their careers.

So the question is, how anomalous was this past season for Nunez? It’s a hard prediction since he’s so young, but there’s a near zero chance he consistently finishes above 20% of his shots in the EPL. So those proprietary adjustment and prediction models better be accurate…
 

PedroSpecialK

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The only similar transfer I can think of in terms of taking on so much uncertainty at this level of fee for a young player is Joao Felix to Atleti (also from Benfica), and maybe Martial to United at a smaller scale. Nunez is certainly more established than Martial was at the time of his transfer, but I worry that, like with Felix going to a system that didn't fit him well, the combination of rapid performance improvements in a weaker league combined with being a square peg in the existing system may yield this to be a bridge too far.

But again - the track record on LFC's talent evaluation has been pretty damn close to spot on for the past 5 years.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Regarding Nunez. I think the £85m fee is what will get in the way. It seems pretty clear they like him but the local journos are making noises about LFC not being drawn into a bidding war. ManU another possibility but it’s claimed Nunez really wants Champions League football.

As has been mentioned they like Nkunku as well … and are supposedly monitoring Villareal’s Danjuna (affordable release clause). Supposedly Jonathan David is on the short list as well.

Liverpool approach over £85m Darwin Nunez transfer amid Man United interest
https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/darwin-nunez-liverpool-manchester-united-24174491

Theres also the obligatory news that Salah “has told close friends that he wants to join Barcelona” amid rumours they have promised him some mega deal next summer - and this is what’s holding up the contract negotiations.

[edit: which would seem to be merely a crude negotiation tactic from the Salah camp]
 
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67YAZ

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Theres also the obligatory news that Salah “has told close friends that he wants to join Barcelona” amid rumours they have promised him some mega deal next summer - and this is what’s holding up the contract negotiations.
sure, but can they actually register him?
 

Mighty Joe Young

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67YAZ

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Your post beat my edit. It’s seems pretty broad knowledge that Barca is in salary cap hell. They can’t even register Lewa at this point.
Last week the hot rumor was Salah wants to stay in the EPL, right?

It appears that Salah wants £375k-400k per week with few of the bonuses & performance clauses FSG loves to include. Compared to the other players in that wage bracket, it's fair market value. And I'm sure Salah's agent is pointing out how much Mo's image rights and additional sponsorship opportunities are worth.

Salah really doesn't need these kind of threats. Unless he suffers a catastrophic injury in the next year, there will be several clubs willing to offer him the wages. All Mo needs to do is set a hard deadline: we get a deal by July 31 or I'm going to play out my contract. He's got all the leverage he needs for that.
 

SocrManiac

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I'm really struggling with this. AFCON drastically reduces Salah's value. You get 75% of him- a full year, then a half year. LFC management clearly knows this and is probably too shrewd to pay him 100% of the salary he's demanding. It's harsh as hell, the business sucks, but I just don't see any other way around it.
 

67YAZ

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I'm really struggling with this. AFCON drastically reduces Salah's value. You get 75% of him- a full year, then a half year. LFC management clearly knows this and is probably too shrewd to pay him 100% of the salary he's demanding. It's harsh as hell, the business sucks, but I just don't see any other way around it.
AFCON is supposed to get back to summers in 2023 (Cote d’Ivor) & 2025 (Guinea). Obviously, CAF decisions are always kind of tenuous because the large majority of its members are poor and several are politically unstable. Plus, the underlying conditions are tough with crazy physical play, massive variation in pitch quality, and some difficult travel. I bounce back and forth between thinking African players are undervalued and African players are hampered by the CAF competitions. I have no doubt that the whiz kids in the Liverpool data office have a statistical model for this.
 

teddykgb

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afcon is impactful but the analysis has to include who you’d replace him with. Salah is one of the few players in world football who is able to consistently do something special. It blows and may be bad value to lose him to afcon but I just don’t see how you replace him. Maybe you let his contract run out but that creates ffp problems. If you sell him and replace him with Nunez then I can’t see how that ends well. A player like Nunez needs a Salah to be putting it on a plate for him
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I really don't think AFCON should be that big of a factor in any calculation given that it may take place in the summer, its only every two years, and the PL doesn't schedule many league games in January anyway.

To me the much bigger question is the age curve of forwards in the PL. Betting on Salah remaining at his elite level between the ages of 31-33 is betting on him to do something literally no PL forward has done in the last 20 years.
 

swiftaw

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AFCON is supposed to get back to summers in 2023 (Cote d’Ivor) & 2025 (Guinea). Obviously, CAF decisions are always kind of tenuous because the large majority of its members are poor and several are politically unstable. Plus, the underlying conditions are tough with crazy physical play, massive variation in pitch quality, and some difficult travel. I bounce back and forth between thinking African players are undervalued and African players are hampered by the CAF competitions. I have no doubt that the whiz kids in the Liverpool data office have a statistical model for this.
I thought AFCON 2023 was scheduled for March that year?
 

SocrManiac

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I didn’t realize afcon was going back to summer. That changes my thinking.

It turned Salah into an absolute ghost the second half. It wasn’thim missing a month, it ruined him.
 

67YAZ

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The Athletic reporting that Nunez has agreed to person terms while Liverpool are currently offering something like €80m in installments plus €20m in various performances clauses.

It’s feeling like this is getting done.
 

67YAZ

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Guardian reporting that the Nunez deal is verbally agreed, just sorting the paperwork now.

It's a BIG gamble, in a few different ways.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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Guardian reporting that the Nunez deal is verbally agreed, just sorting the paperwork now.

It's a BIG gamble, in a few different ways.
You have to give the LFC talent evaluators the benefit of the doubt I guess - given their past success. But, that’s a lot of money for a guy excelling in a non big five league. Let’s hope he has as much success as the last Uruguayan (minus the nibbling)

From a net spend point of view the fees raised for selling Mane and the surplus-to-requirements ,soon to be ex-Reds contingent should pay for Nunez. Minamino, Nico Williams, Nat Phillips and the Ox to be precise.


A lot of talk about how this will force a switch to a 4-2-3-1 formation. I’m not worried about Fabinho - but Thiago and Henderson get hurt a lot. And that’s a lot of running for the old guys.
I still think they need another defensive minded MF.

Kalvin Phillips would be perfect.