Lo Mejor y Il Migliore: Current NT Rankings

Zososoxfan

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Jul 30, 2009
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With the Copa America and Eurocup behind us, how do you rank the top 20 NT in the world right now?

1. Italy
2. France
3. England

4. Spain
5. Argentina (up)
6. Belgium (down)
7. Portugal
8. Germany (up)
9.Holland (up)
10. Brazil

11. Switzerland
12. Croatia
13. Uruguay
14. Colombia (down)
15. Denmark
16. Austria

17. USA (up)
18. Mexico
19. Sweden
20. Peru
21. Czech Republic
22. Ukraine

I haven't seen much AFC or CAF football so I'm not sure if any of those teams fit in here somewhere. From CONMEBOL, I think Ecuador is close to this group and Chile is within sniffing distance. I think you could argue that Wales belongs in this last group too.

I see 4 tiers of quality at the moment. At the top, you have 3 sides in Italy, England, and France that have complete squads and XIs. Ranking them is down to recent performance and expected tactics. France and England really need to become more comfortable attacking to leverage their talent advantage.

The second tier is probably the most fun, as this includes all of the other traditional powerhouses (does Belgium qualify at this point?) that all have problems. I think everyone dreads playing Spain because of their possession style, but they just can't finish their chances and their D isn't airtight. Nevertheless, they're very good. Argentina have a terrific MF and attack and that Messi fella, and while the defense played well in the Copa, the question is whether they can sustain it and perform consistently against good competition. Belgium are terrific going forward but that backline is ancient and I don't see many young Belgian defenders ready to step in. Portugal have an insane MF and attack, and the backline is pretty solid too, but there's only 1 true CB in Dias. There are ways to cover for that but Pepe will have to retire eventually (if he doesn't get fired into the sun sooner). Germany should improve immensely under Flick. Uber-talented squad everywhere with world class players at most spots. Comical that Low was allowed to stay on this long and hold them back. I need to go back and watch that Holland-Czech match because on paper there's no way Holland should lose that match. Brazil will always be competitive but this is a relatively untalented squad for them. There's a handful of elite world class players in Ney, Casemiro, Marquinhos, Silva, and the keepers (wither Firmino?), but the rest of the squad hasn't performed up to standards.

The third tier is almost entirely interchangeable and is basically comprised of talented and organized Euro squads and the Colombia/Uruguay CONMEBOL duo. Switzerland have been consistently good on the international stage long enough to earn the top spot. Just think what could've been if the Alpine Messi was in better physical condition coming in. Colombia and Uruguay are neck and neck, but Uruguay have to eventually replace Suarez and Cavani, and while I really like Maxi Gomez, I don't know if there's enough attacking talent around him. The defense will be damn tough for a long time though with Gimenez, Araujo, and Valverde up the spine. Colombia played extremely well this Copa but I don't see a lot of young talent other than Diaz--sometimes in the international game you just need elite players who can takeover in addition to good team chemistry and organization. Croatia are actually in a good position with the age of their talent, but they have to replace Modric at some point and that's not easy to do. Will be interesting to see what they look like after the WC when he presumably retires. They could easily be the top of this tier. Denmark and Austria both have lots of talent all over the field and are organized. Very tough opponents, but lacking the top end talent of the tier 2 sides.

The final tier includes the USA/Mexico CONCACAF duo, and some very well organized sides that play above their talent level in Sweden, Peru, Czechia, and Ukraine. The Czech backline is aging, but otherwise that's a generation that's all growing together--could be good for a bit.
 

67YAZ

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Dec 1, 2000
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Form CAF, Senegal is at a high point right now and has huge expectations - win the Cup of Nations and make a deep run at the Word Cup. They have a great roster with a mix of youth & experience plus consistency with Cissé as manager (and the unique system he uses). I think they slot into your third tier.

As usual, Nigeria has some real talent, but are stuck in a long spell of relative under performance. Conversely, Tunisia has comparatively much less talent but have been very effective at getting results lately. Sweden and Peru are interesting comps for them.

While they probably wouldn’t make this list, Algeria and Morocco are decent sides that play hard and can pull a result against better sides on their day. Egypt, of course, has Mo Salah, and you can’t sleep on a team with a world class attacker that can turn a match in an instant.

Ghana has some nice young talent, but is probably a cycle away from making noise. Cameroon & Ivory Coast squads are seeing the results of years of instability and loss of so many young men. If may be a while still before they can recover.
 
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dirtynine

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Dec 17, 2002
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An interesting corollary to this exercise is looking at 2022 World Cup odds, post-2021 summer tournaments.

France +500
Brazil +550
England +650
Argentina +900
Germany +900
Italy +900
Spain +1000
Belgium +1100
Portugal +1400
Netherlands +1600

then a big fall-off to the next tier (Denmark +3300)

US, Mexico and Qatar are all on +6600.

Brazil is the big question to me. My gut also says they're somewhere 5-10, but maybe they're more of a threat than that?

I usually keep an eye on the ELO rankings but they reflect past performance, not current/future expectation.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Jul 2, 2006
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I'm not really sure Italy should be on top. They absolutely deserved to win the tournament but these competitions always involve a ton of luck and aren't very predictive about which is the best team going forward. Assuming France can figure out whatever acrimonious shit was going on within their squad over the last month, I would bet on them to beat Italy on a neutral field tomorrow.

I wouldn't sleep on Germany going forward with Hansi Flick as manager.

I think Belgium is done as a top team. They just don't have the same level of talent coming through in the next generation. Their only current national team players that might be expected to be better in 16 months are Doku and Tielemans, everybody else is at a point in the age curve where they should get worse (or retire).

If I'm making my World Cup 2022 early odds, I think its something like this:

1. France
2. England
3. Italy
4. Germany
5. Spain
6. Brazil
7. Portugal
8. Argentina
9. Holland
10. Belgium

I can't really rank teams after that but just looking at the rest of the field it seems to me like the US could actually be in the next 2-3 if players continue to develop well.
 

Kliq

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Mar 31, 2013
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Brazil is almost always overrated. They will always have talent but I don't see an elite squad in South America at this point; and you look at their roster and they got a very good defense and defensive midfielders, but it doesn't blow me away and other countries are deeper with top talent AND the Brazilian team is kind of old with a lot of their best players in their late-20s/early 30s.

I always found it funny when Belgium knocked them out of the last World Cup and it was treated as a giant upset when the reality was that Belgium was a much more talented side.
 

Titans Bastard

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Dec 15, 2002
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I like to keep track of the ELO ratings which I think tend to "feel" more correct than FIFA ratings. But international games happen infrequently enough that quantitative rankings can take a little while to reflect changes in team quality. The top 22 actually contains almost the exact same slate of teams as @Zososoxfan's list, except he added Ukraine and Austria and subbed out Wales and Paraguay.

The USMNT dropped as low as #43 after the bad CONCACAF Nations League loss in Canada, but have rebounded to #22 currently. That feels about right. The new team is obviously more talented, but they haven't had the chance to prove themselves against high quality opposition all too often. The win over Mexico was a signature win, but that's the only one so far. I think we'll push into the top 20 soon enough but for me it's a little premature right now.

For what it's worth, since most of us don't watch much from these regions:

In ELO, the AFC teams in the top 50 are:

#23 Iran
#29 Japan
#31 South Korea
#36 Australia
#45 Qatar

The CAF teams in the top 50 are:

#30 Algeria
#40 Senegal
#42 Morocco
#44 Nigeria
#47 Ivory Coast
#48 Tunisia


I wish there were more inter-confederational games, though travel and turf wars make that difficult. From a CONCACAF vantage point, I'd sure love a global Nations League. Good quality games are harder to come by than ever these days.