Looking back at the 2011 NFL Draft

AB in DC

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Great WPost article article today. I think we're going to hear a lot more about this when we get to this year's draft.

In short, everyone knows that it takes a good five years before you can evaluate the success of a draft. So take a quick look back at the top two picks of the draft five years ago:

1. Panthers: Cam Newton (QB, Auburn)
2. Broncos: Von Miller (LB, Texas A&M)
Ouch.
 

AB in DC

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And remember, then 2011 draft was the first under the new rookie salary scale, which mean that both teams had more money to spend on guys like Peyton Manning, DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, DeMaryius Thomas's new contract, etc.
 

tims4wins

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Pats did pretty well in that draft. Got Solder at 17, busted with Dowling at 33, got good value out of Vereen at 56 and Ridley at 73, decent value out of Mallett at 74 as well, good value out of Cannon at 138 (even though yesterday sucked). 5 of their first 6 picks have stuck in the NFL, that's a good hit rate.
 
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That Ras I Dowling pick is the most frustrating draft misstep of the BB Era. Not because Dowling was such a catastrophic bust, but because it was the first pick of Day Two, when you have all night to rejigger your board, take calls on what is typically a very valuable draft slot...God, it just boggles the mind.

All you can do is assume they really really liked him (duh) and just rolled the dice on a second rounder with first round talent but lots of risk (when the usual BB MO is to take those guys in round three), and realize that, overall, their scouting and drafting system has worked better than most. It is what it is, but...GRRRRRRRRR.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Pats did pretty well in that draft. Got Solder at 17, busted with Dowling at 33, got good value out of Vereen at 56 and Ridley at 73, decent value out of Mallett at 74 as well, good value out of Cannon at 138 (even though yesterday sucked). 5 of their first 6 picks have stuck in the NFL, that's a good hit rate.
The Pats got decent value out of Mallett that their return for him was a conditional seventh. Am I missing something?
 

pappymojo

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That Ras I Dowling pick is the most frustrating draft misstep of the BB Era. Not because Dowling was such a catastrophic bust, but because it was the first pick of Day Two, when you have all night to rejigger your board, take calls on what is typically a very valuable draft slot...God, it just boggles the mind.

All you can do is assume they really really liked him (duh) and just rolled the dice on a second rounder with first round talent but lots of risk (when the usual BB MO is to take those guys in round three), and realize that, overall, their scouting and drafting system has worked better than most. It is what it is, but...GRRRRRRRRR.
You can just as easily assume that no viable trading partners emerged for a second round draft pick.
 
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You're missing that they got value from him serving as the backup QB for multiple year, which counts, even if it feels incredibly minimal.
 
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You can just as easily assume that no viable trading partners emerged for a second round draft pick.
But don't we always - like ALWAYS - hear that teams (generally) make offers for that particular pick more than any other, due in large part to the overnight resetting of draft boards and priorities?

I agree with you that from the patriots's POV that's how it seemed - no one made them an offer they felt was worth taking. Given their decision, I guess that's what happened. But it was arguably the worst missed opportunity of this extremely successful time period. Don't mind me, I'm just retroactively frustrated.

Edit clarifying.
 

Rudy's Curve

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You're missing that they got value from him serving as the backup QB for multiple year, which counts, even if it feels incredibly minimal.
A clipboard holder that's traded for a conditional seventh isn't decent value out of a third rounder to me, but to each their own I guess.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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A clipboard holder that's traded for a conditional seventh isn't decent value out of a third rounder to me, but to each their own I guess.
The burn out rate for 3rd round picks is staggeringly high. By that point in the draft it is a complete crapshoot/luck. The assumption that you are going to consistently find quality contributors in the 3rd round is not grounded in reality. Getting anything out of a 3rd round pick, even a 7th rounder, likely exceeds the expectation for a 3rd rounder.
 

moondog80

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That Ras I Dowling pick is the most frustrating draft misstep of the BB Era. Not because Dowling was such a catastrophic bust, but because it was the first pick of Day Two, when you have all night to rejigger your board, take calls on what is typically a very valuable draft slot...God, it just boggles the mind.

All you can do is assume they really really liked him (duh) and just rolled the dice on a second rounder with first round talent but lots of risk (when the usual BB MO is to take those guys in round three), and realize that, overall, their scouting and drafting system has worked better than most. It is what it is, but...GRRRRRRRRR.
Sometimes the injury risks turn out like Dowling, sometimes they turn out like Gronk.
 

Shelterdog

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But don't we always - like ALWAYS - hear that teams (generally) make offers for that particular pick more than any other, due in large part to the overnight resetting of draft boards and priorities?

I agree with you that from the patriots's POV that's how it seemed - no one made them an offer they felt was worth taking. Given their decision, I guess that's what happened. But it was arguably the worst missed opportunity of this extremely successful time period. Don't mind me, I'm just retroactively frustrated.

Edit clarifying.
They did have some sort of opportunity (on the Pats' website there was also a video of Ernie Adams telling BB to just draft the kid). I can't find a link to the article now but here's some text from a Peter King article about that draft. It looks like the Pats were trying to trade 33 for 45 + a 2011 third plus a 2013 second and walked away from 33 for 45 plus a 2011 third and a 2012 third. You never know but neither of those trades are massive missed opportunities.


Article: Come back with me to draft weekend 2011, when the 49ers had the 45th overall pick and began to understand late in the first round that they'd need to move up to get the man they wanted, Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick.
I covered the draft in San Francisco that weekend. GM Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh had targeted Kaepernick and TCU quarterback Andy Dalton, in that order, before the draft. Late in the first, Baalke tried to trade up with a package of picks starting with the Niners' pick at 45, but couldn't swing a deal. He started again a half hour before the beginning of Friday's second round, calling the Patriots, who held the first pick (No. 33) that evening.
The Raiders, who'd dealt their 2011 first-round choice to New England in September 2009 to get defensive tackle Richard Seymour, were also trying to get the Pats' pick. That gave the Patriots leverage. San Francisco offered two third-round picks (one from this draft, one from 2012) to move up, but New England wanted a third-rounder this year and a second-rounder next year. Baalke thought that was too much, even if it meant losing his quarterback of the future. The Patriots hung on and drafted Virginia cornerback Ras-I Dowling. Baalke knew the Bills weren't going to take Kaepernick or Dalton at 34, and he figured Cincy would take Dalton at 35. So he focused on the pick after Cincinnati's, held by the Broncos, and dealt fourth- and fifth-rounders this year to Denver. Baalke got his man, and for significantly less than he would have paid New England.
A clipboard holder that's traded for a conditional seventh isn't decent value out of a third rounder to me, but to each their own I guess.
Third rounders are massively overrated. Having a third rounder make your roster for years is good value. Backup quarterbacks are also challenging to value--if you don't have one on a rookie contract you have to pay a guy like Chad Henne $3 million a year so there is pretty good value in having a rookie QB as your backup.
 

Rudy's Curve

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The burn out rate for 3rd round picks is staggeringly high. By that point in the draft it is a complete crapshoot/luck. The assumption that you are going to consistently find quality contributors in the 3rd round is not grounded in reality. Getting anything out of a 3rd round pick, even a 7th rounder, likely exceeds the expectation for a 3rd rounder.
I'm not saying the Pats should've found a starter then, but even most of the guys drafted after Mallett who are out of the league now contributed something while they were in it that's likely greater than a seventh. TJ Yates and Tyrod Taylor were also taken far later in that draft and turned out to be superior players. The only real value he had is what Shelterdog said below in that it allowed the Pats to pay league minimum to that spot. Is that worth a third when he's been terrible and they got basically no return?
 

tims4wins

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Yeah what I meant on Mallet was that they got 3 years of a backup QB at basically league minimum. Obviously he didn't play many snaps but that has value when teams like the Colts are paying $4-5M to Matt Hasselbeck. That $4-5M annually had real implications in terms of roster management.
 

Rudy's Curve

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The issue I have with that though is Mallett has been a sub-replacement player and likely would've crippled even a team as good as the Pats had he been forced into action. Obviously what Taylor has turned out to be is an extremely optimistic projection for a backup, but even Yates has been worlds better and he was a fifth.
 

Shelterdog

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The issue I have with that though is Mallett has been a sub-replacement player and likely would've crippled even a team as good as the Pats had he been forced into action. Obviously what Taylor has turned out to be is an extremely optimistic projection for a backup, but even Yates has been worlds better and he was a fifth.
The right question--which we'll never know the answer to--is whether he would have been ok if forced into action for the Pats. His performance with Houston suggests he wouldn't have been that good although the fact that he competed for a starting job in Houston and got picked up by Baltimore suggests to me that he's in the range of how good you can reasonably expect a backup to be.
 

Rudy's Curve

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The right question--which we'll never know the answer to--is whether he would have been ok if forced into action for the Pats. His performance with Houston suggests he wouldn't have been that good although the fact that he competed for a starting job in Houston and got picked up by Baltimore suggests to me that he's in the range of how good you can reasonably expect a backup to be.
I'd say the biggest reasons he competed for a starting job in Houston and got picked up by Baltimore were irrespective of his production. BOB obviously knew him and essentially gave up nothing and I would imagine being a third rounder with a big arm helped him land in Baltimore as well as not being named Matt Schaub or Jimmy Clausen. His two games with the Ravens were actually pretty good and give hope to him sticking around for a while but he did absolutely nothing before then.
 

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The Dowling pick isn't even bad just in hindsight, a lot of people were pissed at the pick on the day of the draft. He's my pick of worst draft pick of the BB era. I'd rather have literally every other 2011 2nd round pick over him.
 

genoasalami

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The Dowling pick isn't even bad just in hindsight, a lot of people were pissed at the pick on the day of the draft. He's my pick of worst draft pick of the BB era. I'd rather have literally every other 2011 2nd round pick over him.
The Tavon Wilson pick was always a head scratcher for me.
 

EL Jeffe

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Dowling had plus size, athleticism and character. He wasn't some huge reach. Gosselin, who is as plugged in on this stuff as any guru, rated him as the fifth best corner in that draft. He didn't work out; crap happens. Neither did Brace, Bethel Johnson, Wheatley, Dobson or a whole bunch of other 2nd round picks. Drafting is really, really hard. No one really knows who is or isn't going to pan out. I never understood why Dowling became the poster boy for bad picks.
 

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Dowling had plus size, athleticism and character. He wasn't some huge reach. Gosselin, who is as plugged in on this stuff as any guru, rated him as the fifth best corner in that draft. He didn't work out; crap happens. Neither did Brace, Bethel Johnson, Wheatley, Dobson or a whole bunch of other 2nd round picks. Drafting is really, really hard. No one really knows who is or isn't going to pan out. I never understood why Dowling became the poster boy for bad picks.
Because you can call him Glass-I Dowling.

I think the answer is that when a player sucks for the exact reason you'd expect him to suck then it's easy to second guess the pick (particularly if, like Ras-I, they got injured at the combine).
 

lexrageorge

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How did Denver end up with the second pick in the draft? They were 4-12 the previous year.
There were 3 teams that had 4-12 records: Denver, Buffalo, and the Bungles. Only one team had a worst record, and that was Carolina. Not sure which tiebreaker Denver "won" to secure the #2 pick.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Nine of the first 11 picks are well above-average players/superstars (well, Aldon Smith was). The other two are Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert.
 

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There were 3 teams that had 4-12 records: Denver, Buffalo, and the Bungles. Only one team had a worst record, and that was Carolina. Not sure which tiebreaker Denver "won" to secure the #2 pick.
It's strength of schedule, as the first tiebreaker. Lower/weaker strength of schedule gives the team an earlier first round pick. I specify first round pick because after the first round, the teams cycle (1234 becomes 2341 in Round 2, which becomes 3412 in Round 3, etc.).

Also, this draft saw two of the better UDFAs I can recall in a single draft, Chris Harris Jr. and Doug Baldwin. Seahawks also cleaned up with Sherman in Round 5, pick 154. Justin Houston at 70 would be killer on this line these days; can you imagine him with Brown, Hicks, Sheard, and Easley?
 
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dbn

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A clipboard holder that's traded for a conditional seventh isn't decent value out of a third rounder to me, but to each their own I guess.
You don't buy health insurance because you hope that you get sick. Mallet fell big in the draft because he stole a laptop (or something, I forget), and was a great value pick. Sure, in hindsight, he didn't add much actual on-field value but, again, it's like that insurance you purchased - that you didn't need to use it is a good thing and doesn't mean it wasn't a wise purchase at the time.
 

Rudy's Curve

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You don't buy health insurance because you hope that you get sick. Mallet fell big in the draft because he stole a laptop (or something, I forget), and was a great value pick. Sure, in hindsight, he didn't add much actual on-field value but, again, it's like that insurance you purchased - that you didn't need to use it is a good thing and doesn't mean it wasn't a wise purchase at the time.
It also turned out to be pretty shitty health insurance in which the holder decided to purchase a better brand before the contract was up. If the Pats got something legitimate for him or he turned out to be serviceable I'd come around more to that line of thinking. The former didn't happen and the latter is looking murky.
 

the1andonly3003

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Mo WIlk at 30 was not too shabby
didn't realize how pedestrian the picks b/w Solder and Dowling were in the 2nd half of the 1st round: 3 Pro Bowlers (Ingram, Cameron Jordan, Mo Wilkerson)...oh and Anthony Castonzo for the Colts

guess BB could have taken Sheard or Akeem Ayers with 33
 

kenneycb

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You don't buy health insurance because you hope that you get sick. Mallet fell big in the draft because he stole a laptop (or something, I forget), and was a great value pick. Sure, in hindsight, he didn't add much actual on-field value but, again, it's like that insurance you purchased - that you didn't need to use it is a good thing and doesn't mean it wasn't a wise purchase at the time.
He also enjoyed a lot of drugs during college. Allegedly, at least.
 

moondog80

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Because you can call him Glass-I Dowling.

I think the answer is that when a player sucks for the exact reason you'd expect him to suck then it's easy to second guess the pick (particularly if, like Ras-I, they got injured at the combine).
Again, Gronk was just as much an injury risk. Sometimes you hit, sometimes you strike out.
 

Phragle

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One of the best drafts ever and the Raiders decided to go 8-8. Awful.

Mallett was a good pick at the time, but I can't see it being a good value in hindsight. You can get a shitty, min salary quarterback anywhere.
 

lexrageorge

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The talk of the Pats taking Mallett in the 3rd round really needs to be considered in the context of what the team's strategy should be with regards to backup QB's. They only had to break the glass once during Brady's tenure. Bad news is that they had to break it in a very big way; good news is that they had a competent Plan B who almost was able to get them to the playoffs as an 11-win team.

When Mallett was drafted, Brady was getting ready to turn 34, and Hoyer was widely expected to be in his final season as backup QB. Their options:

a.) Pick up a guy that could eventually be groomed as a potential starting QB should Brady's career turn downward in his mid-30's.

b.) Use a 6th or 7th rounder and hope for the best (this strategy has had a history of some success).

c.) Sift through the catalog of experienced journeymen backups and pay for the privilege.

d.) Kick the can down the road a year.

Using our 20/20 hindsight, we now know that there was no danger of Brady either suffering a career impacting injury or age-related decline. So the Mallett pick looks like a waste. But that doesn't mean it was the wrong choice at the time it was made.
 

dcmissle

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Absolutely. And it is less than 2 years ago that Jimmy G was lamented and mocked as a wasted pick. "We're on the cusp of a SB, what are they doing" and so forth. They pocketed the back-up and another ring.

They are a year plus away from the same decision point coming round again.
 

pappymojo

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The Patriots may simply believe that a quarterback needs a lot of time working and learning as a part of their organization to be successful in their system.
 

lexrageorge

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And the value of the insurance policy should not be understated. I'll roughly prioritize the tasks of a backup QB:

1.) Finish a game in which the starter gets hurt.
2.) Fill in for a handful of games in case the starter gets hurt.
3.) Become the starter in case he suffers a season ending injury.
4.) Take some snaps during garbage time or when the starter is really sucking bad.
5.) Run the scout team.

We were lucky we didn't have to see #1 in action this past Sunday given the number of hits Brady took. We almost saw scenario #2 in action to start this season, and there's still a (remote) possibility we'll need to see it at the start of the 2016 season. A capable insurance policy to cover those first 2 scenarios, which happen with fair regularity during the course of the NFL season, can make the difference between making and missing the playoffs. If Brock Osweiler goes 3-4 in his 7 games perhaps Denver doesn't even make the playoffs.

If you have a backup that can become the permanent starter once the current starting QB leaves, then that's an added bonus. Let's not forget that Brady is only 16 months younger than Peyton.
 

Devizier

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didn't realize how pedestrian the picks b/w Solder and Dowling were in the 2nd half of the 1st round: 3 Pro Bowlers (Ingram, Cameron Jordan, Mo Wilkerson)...oh and Anthony Castonzo for the Colts

guess BB could have taken Sheard or Akeem Ayers with 33
A lot of the draftniks had the Patriots picking Sheard at that spot, IIRC.