Lord have mercy! playoff rotations/mpg

benhogan

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The Celtics need 240mpg in the playoffs (pre-OT). The TimeLord injury is brutal, but they can still do damage IF
1. Tatum 42mpg - continues to play like a Top5 player
2. Brown 40mpg - shoots well and doesn't get beat backdoor
3. Smart 38mpg - distributes and plays relentless on-ball defense
4. Horford 32mpg - takes over Rob's dunker spot/post-up/high screen/distributes/ Free safety role on D
5. Grant 26mpg - has to drill them from the CornerOffice
6. White 34mpg - dribble drive with the 2nd unit and hits PP or Grant in the Corners for 3s
7. Theis 14mpg - doesn't get himself in foul trouble while being active defensively. Screens & avoids hoisting 3s
8. Pritchard 14mpg - continues his hot 3pt shooting

The team goes as Tatum goes.

Limit the turnovers & transition baskets
 

Koufax

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You're going to need more minutes from Theis, even if he is, as you say, a walking foul machine. Give Horford a little less time. He's an old man. Pritchard should get more minutes as well, giving Smart an occasional breather. Finally, you need a 9th player for maybe 5 mpg. Nesmith and Hauser will battle for that, giving Tatum and Brown 2 or 3 minutes less of playing time apiece.

Losing Timelord is a gut punch.
 

HomeRunBaker

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You're going to need more minutes from Theis, even if he is, as you say, a walking foul machine. Give Horford a little less time. He's an old man. Pritchard should get more minutes as well, giving Smart an occasional breather. Finally, you need a 9th player for maybe 5 mpg. Nesmith and Hauser will battle for that, giving Tatum and Brown 2 or 3 minutes less of playing time apiece.

Losing Timelord is a gut punch.
I expect Horford to play similar minutes as Tatum/Jaylen in the playoff at around 40. I don’t understand where this idea came from that Horford is a gereatric patient. He’s 35, not 41, and his game has always projected to age well as he doesn’t rely on his athleticism and one of his best games of the year came a few weeks ago against Memphis when he played 40 min that came off a 35 min game against Atlanta. The extra rest between games will extend starters minutes in the playoffs as well.
 

benhogan

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I expect Horford to play similar minutes as Tatum/Jaylen in the playoff at around 40. I don’t understand where this idea came from that Horford is a gereatric patient. He’s 35, not 41, and his game has always projected to age well as he doesn’t rely on his athleticism and one of his best games of the year came a few weeks ago against Memphis when he played 40 min that came off a 35 min game against Atlanta. The extra rest between games will extend starters minutes in the playoffs as well.
IME could absolutely go with a 7 man rotation

I don't expect to see Hauser or Nesmith unless it's during Geno Time
 

lovegtm

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You're going to need more minutes from Theis, even if he is, as you say, a walking foul machine. Give Horford a little less time. He's an old man. Pritchard should get more minutes as well, giving Smart an occasional breather. Finally, you need a 9th player for maybe 5 mpg. Nesmith and Hauser will battle for that, giving Tatum and Brown 2 or 3 minutes less of playing time apiece.

Losing Timelord is a gut punch.
They've played an 8-man rotation a lot during the season; doubt they'll suddenly want a 9th man in the playoffs.

I'd guess they start Smart/Jay1/Jay2/Grant/Horford, and ride the Jays+Horford pretty hard, as HRB said. Then White fills minutes at the 1 & 2, Theis fills minutes at 4 & 5, and Pritchard plays more or less depending on whether there're matchups that really expose him defensively.

They won't be as good defensively, but the extra Grant/PP minutes will get more shooting out there than we've generally seen, which could work well in a Tatum-centric offense.
 

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I feel like last night's game was a direct comment to this thread.
It's like Ime addressed the Celtics fanbase directly and said "back slowly, and quietly, away from the edge of that cliff and take a deep breath."
 

joe dokes

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IME could absolutely go with a 7 man rotation

I don't expect to see Hauser or Nesmith unless it's during Geno Time
No back-to-backs in the playoffs.
Nesmith is ahead of Hauser in that there's a path to Nesmith's usage other than disaster or garbage time: if both Grant and one of Smart/White gets in foul trouble, Nesmith is sort of the next guy down the defensive depth chart, which is the more important side of the ball to Ime.
 

benhogan

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No back-to-backs in the playoffs.
Nesmith is ahead of Hauser in that there's a path to Nesmith's usage other than disaster or garbage time: if both Grant and one of Smart/White gets in foul trouble, Nesmith is sort of the next guy down the defensive depth chart, which is the more important side of the ball to Ime.
If Nesmith could learn to shoot he might be playable next season. The "unathletic, can't play D" label probably needs to go, he's long and aggressive which is very usable in a switchy defense.
 

Jimbodandy

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If Nesmith could learn to shoot he might be playable next season. The "unathletic, can't play D" label probably needs to go, he's long and aggressive which is very usable in a switchy defense.
He's playing pretty good defense to my eyes. His footwork is still not great. But it's a little better, and his energy is huge. If the shot returns, he starts looking like a rotation player. Big if though.
 

benhogan

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He's playing pretty good defense to my eyes. His footwork is still not great. But it's a little better, and his energy is huge. If the shot returns, he starts looking like a rotation player. Big if though.
Agreed. His length/strength/effort plays well in a match up zone IMEs switch D. His biggest weakness on D is awareness (it's the same for JB), still focused on ball-man instead of ball-space.

AN will get minutes, next season, to find that shot
 

Jimbodandy

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Agreed. His length/strength/effort plays well in a match up zone IMEs switch D. His biggest weakness on D is awareness (it's the same for JB), still focused on ball-man instead of ball-space.

AN will get minutes, next season, to find that shot
Was nice to see him hunting passing lanes a bit last night too. I have some hope for that, although there's a long way to go.

He looked damn good on ball.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He's playing pretty good defense to my eyes. His footwork is still not great. But it's a little better, and his energy is huge. If the shot returns, he starts looking like a rotation player. Big if though.
The thing is that he has to work sooooo hard defensively because it doesn’t come natural to him and this affects his offense. This has always been his issue and it all begins with his defense being hard for him.
 

Jimbodandy

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The thing is that he has to work sooooo hard defensively because it doesn’t come natural to him and this affects his offense. This has always been his issue and it all begins with his defense being hard for him.
Yeah I buy that completely. But it seemed to come easier to him last night...SSS. I'm wishcasting, but progress is better than the lack thereof.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah I buy that completely. But it seemed to come easier to him last night...SSS. I'm wishcasting, but progress is better than the lack thereof.
I suspect part of this was due to a Raptor letdown, their defense out of the gate was nonexistent, and not operating at full throttle. We’ll get a better look against Miami to see how the two games compare.
 

Leon Trotsky

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I suspect part of this was due to a Raptor letdown, their defense out of the gate was nonexistent, and not operating at full throttle. We’ll get a better look against Miami to see how the two games compare.
Nesmith looks a little slimmed down to me lately and a little faster. Might be the new hairdo, but the speed looked real to me last night. Maybe he has Grant's nutritionist working with him now.
 

joe dokes

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Nesmith looks a little slimmed down to me lately and a little faster. Might be the new hairdo, but the speed looked real to me last night. Maybe he has Grant's nutritionist working with him now.
I still see early Tony Allen in his game.
 

benhogan

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The thing is that he has to work sooooo hard defensively because it doesn’t come natural to him and this affects his offense. This has always been his issue and it all begins with his defense being hard for him.
Do you believe the physicality/effort of playing D impacts his shooting?

or

Is it that AN is so concerned about his Defense and getting benched by IME (Brad benched him several times last season due to bad D)

I see it as a "confidence/exp" thing with his 3pt shooting, but maybe the D is bleeding over.
 

lovegtm

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Not to mention that Brown and Tatum *were* on the injury report on Sunday lol.

Windhorst should go back to doing whatever he does for LeBron, leave reporting to reporters who can be fucked to google for 10 seconds.
 

Fishy1

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Well, Windhorst seems to be speculating/reporting(?) that Tatum, Brown, and Horford are unvaccinated because they did played Sunday and not last night. Of course Al actually sat Sunday, but why not let’s run with it?
View: https://twitter.com/greshkeefe/status/1508806185138503687?s=10&t=glEHkdf4Ek5Bp-8u2Bx8EQ
Open question to me if this is merely embarrassing because he didn't do his homework or if he knows better and it's also desperate.

Either way, what a clown.
 

SteveF

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Yeah. That whole thing was interesting. Tim Bontemps was the guy who asked the question, and then on Twitter suggested the Celtics evaded the question/refused to comment. That's where Windhorst is getting his information from -- Bontemps. I think Ime was just sort of uncomfortable talking about the situation and phrased it in a very indirect manner that made it appear he was being evasive... I mean, he didn't come out and say in a straightforward manner that everyone on the roster was vaccinated. But I took the same thing out of it as Jared Weiss and CLNS -- every Celtic on the roster would be eligible to play in Canada under the new rules.
 

Fishy1

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Yeah. That whole thing was interesting. Tim Bontemps was the guy who asked the question, and then on Twitter suggested the Celtics evaded the question/refused to comment. That's where Windhorst is getting his information from -- Bontemps. I think Ime was just sort of uncomfortable talking about the situation and phrased it in a very indirect manner that made it appear he was being evasive... I mean, he didn't come out and say in a straightforward manner that everyone on the roster was vaccinated. But I took the same thing out of it as Jared Weiss and CLNS -- every Celtic on the roster would be eligible to play in Canada under the new rules.
I guess. But his comment seems direct to me, just phrased in a roundabout way. You'd have to work pretty hard to take away "our guys aren't vaccinated."

I'm pretty sure all of this was addressed at the beginning of the season too: J-Rich was a holdout and that was public knowledge. Celtics haven't tried to hide anything as far as I can remember.
 

SteveF

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I'm not disputing the Weiss interpretation. Just that Bontemps and Windhorst are colleagues who do the Hoop Collective together. Windhorst isn't being a hack/clown (in this case, anyway). He's just getting his information from Bontemps, and I'm not sure Bontemps has it right.

Edit: To close the loop on this, Bontemps has since deleted the tweet suggesting the Celtics were evasive/didn't comment. I know I read it, but didn't screenshot it so you'd have to take my word for it which... is up to you.
DoubleEdit: Weiss deleted his tweet as well. I'm starting to question my own sanity.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Do you believe the physicality/effort of playing D impacts his shooting?

or

Is it that AN is so concerned about his Defense and getting benched by IME (Brad benched him several times last season due to bad D)

I see it as a "confidence/exp" thing with his 3pt shooting, but maybe the D is bleeding over.
Absolutely 100% A. It’s all a part of slowing the game down for a shooting. If you are overexerting yourself to keep with the pace of the game the one aspect of your game that is going to be compromised is perimeter shooting as this is the one aspect of the game where rhythm/comfort zone is most important. Of course if he isn’t in a good place with his confidence that is going to affect his shooting as well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yes, Ime will put him on The Payton Program.
Bury him until he’s forced to use him? That’s kinda the role he’s currently in today.

Such lazy BS by Windhorst. It was the perfect rest game for all these guys especially when Ime stated weeks ago that he’d be looking for spots to rest them.
 

128

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I'm not disputing the Weiss interpretation. Just that Bontemps and Windhorst are colleagues who do the Hoop Collective together. Windhorst isn't being a hack/clown (in this case, anyway). He's just getting his information from Bontemps, and I'm not sure Bontemps has it right.

Edit: To close the loop on this, Bontemps has since deleted the tweet suggesting the Celtics were evasive/didn't comment. I know I read it, but didn't screenshot it so you'd have to take my word for it which... is up to you.
DoubleEdit: Weiss deleted his tweet as well. I'm starting to question my own sanity.
Here's the injury report for Sunday's game. How the hell did both Bontemps and Windhorst miss this?

View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1507834975516831745
 

benhogan

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Mannix saying Jaylen and Al are unvaccinated. At the 4:20 mark or so. I don’t really trust him though, poor track record.

https://www.tsn.ca/radio/toronto-1050/chris-mannix-on-siakam-taking-steps-towards-stardom-barnes-mobley-roy-race-zion-s-murky-future-1.1778214
Agreed. Mannix leans towards daytime sports radio.

Brad needs more credit, the Theis deal may save this season. If they can get TimeLord back in a month (EC Finals), Theis can bridge them to that time. It was only 2 seasons ago when DT was starting/playing 28mpg in the playoffs for the Bubble Celtics.
 

benhogan

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IME has done an excellent job with rotations/bench use. This is what I expect to see in the playoffs (in close games):
1. Tatum will play 42mpg, taking a 3-minute break at the end of Q1/Q3
2. Theis starting is set in stone until TL is back, but DT will still play a huge role since they can't force/rush Rob into major minutes after surgery
3. Start of Q2/Q4 (when IME can hide PP's defense) we'll see the Tatum/White/Grant/PP + a BIG (Al/DT/TL) death lineup
4. Brown & Smart will play the entire 1st and 3rd Quarters
5. IME will finish the 1st half and end of the game with Smart/JAYs/Al + Theis or White

I'll have to bump Theis minutes from my initial estimates of 2-weeks ago
1. Tatum 42mpg
2. Brown 40mpg
3. Smart 38mpg
4. Horford 31mpg
5. White 31mpg
6. Theis 26mpg
7. Grant 20mpg
8. Pritchard 12mpg

TimeLord will change things a lot when he returns healthy
Nesmith/Hauser will only see minutes in blowouts
 

Eddie Jurak

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I don't think they will change much from what has been working since January. So...
  • 8-man rotation. They aren't going to pivot from 3 months of great basketball with an 8-man rotation to a 9 or 10 man for the playoffs. They will stick with what works or, if anything, shorten the rotation. But I don't think they will shorten to 7 because that is too short. Pritchard's minutes might fall for defensive reasons but I think the Celtics will try to pick and choose spots where he can play. The only wrinkle here is the Theis/Rob situation. If Rob comes back on a minutes restriction, maybe there is still a partial role for Theis. Same if Al is working through a sore back that threatens to derail him.
  • Tatum (35.9), Brown (33.6), Smart (32.3), and White (27.4) will likely see their minute averages go up, while Grant (24.4) and Pritchard (14.1) may see declines. But I don't think they will run Tatum up to an average 42 mpg necessarily. In 2008-09, Pierce and Allen averaged 35.9 mpg in the regular season and Garnett averaged 32.8. Then, in the playoffs, Pierce averaged 38.1 and the other two 38.0. The next year, a weaker Celtics team (no KG) had Pierce go from 37.5 to 39.7, Allen from 36.4 to 40.4, Rondo from 33.0 to 41.2. Then, 2009-10, Rondo went from 36.6 to 40.6, Allen 35.2 to 38.5, Pierce 34.0 to 38.8, Garnett 29.9 to 33.3.
    • Tatum and Brown are younger and maybe better able to handle more minutes than the Celtics' core in 2008-2010, but if they are both averaging 40+ in the early rounds that would suggest to me that the team doesn't have the talent/depth to be a legit contender.
 

benhogan

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Tatum (35.9), Brown (33.6), Smart (32.3), and White (27.4) will likely see their minute averages go up, while Grant (24.4) and Pritchard (14.1) may see declines. But I don't think they will run Tatum up to an average 42 mpg necessarily. In 2008-09, Pierce and Allen averaged 35.9 mpg in the regular season and Garnett averaged 32.8. Then, in the playoffs, Pierce averaged 38.1 and the other two 38.0. The next year, a weaker Celtics team (no KG) had Pierce go from 37.5 to 39.7, Allen from 36.4 to 40.4, Rondo from 33.0 to 41.2. Then, 2009-10, Rondo went from 36.6 to 40.6, Allen 35.2 to 38.5, Pierce 34.0 to 38.8, Garnett 29.9 to 33.3.
  • Tatum and Brown are younger and maybe better able to handle more minutes than the Celtics' core in 2008-2010, but if they are both averaging 40+ in the early rounds that would suggest to me that the team doesn't have the talent/depth to be a legit contender.
For clarity, Brown & Tatum won't average 40-42mpg, there will be blowouts. BUT in a close/tight game I'd expect both to play over 40mpg. They've done it before in the playoffs and regular season.
 

HomeRunBaker

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For clarity, Brown & Tatum won't average 40-42mpg, there will be blowouts. BUT in a close/tight game I'd expect both to play over 40mpg. They've done it before in the playoffs and regular season.
Are there really blowouts in the playoffs anymore? If we have a 20-25 pt lead with 7-8 min to go the starters are coming back in until there are 2-3 min to go the way todays NBA plays. I’d consider that a big 4Q lead but not a blowout to where teams are emptying the bench with 7 to go.
 

benhogan

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Are there really blowouts in the playoffs anymore? If we have a 20-25 pt lead with 7-8 min to go the starters are coming back in until there are 2-3 min to go the way todays NBA plays. I’d consider that a big 4Q lead but not a blowout to where teams are emptying the bench with 7 to go.
if they are up 20-25pts with 7-8 mins left the JAYs won't play 40-42mins
 

HomeRunBaker

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if they are up 20-25pts with 7-8 mins left the JAYs won't play 40-42mins
38-40? It won’t be much less than that if it is and with the days off it doesn’t really matter not even for Horford who I feel will be playing close to those same minutes.
 

TripleOT

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Tatum played over 40 mpg, Brown 39.5, and Smart 38 mpg in the last ECF season. I expect the same this season. It will be an eight man rotation. The minutes guesstimate benhogan posted above looks right
 

benhogan

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38-40? It won’t be much less than that if it is and with the days off it doesn’t really matter not even for Horford who I feel will be playing close to those same minutes.
about right. IME has been pretty consistent with his rotation minutes since the trade deadline

Plus Tatum makes such a large impact (without even breaking a sweat) it would be criminal to take him out for more than 3-4 minutes in the 1st half.
 

Eddie Jurak

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For clarity, Brown & Tatum won't average 40-42mpg, there will be blowouts. BUT in a close/tight game I'd expect both to play over 40mpg. They've done it before in the playoffs and regular season.
I agree with this, then. Their minutes will definitely go up.
 
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benhogan

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1. Tatum 42mpg
2. Brown 40mpg
3. Smart 38mpg
4. Horford 31mpg
5. White 31mpg
6. Theis 26mpg
7. Grant 20mpg
8. Pritchard 12mpg

TimeLord will change things a lot when he returns healthy
Played out as I thought...Early Theis foul trouble skewed his minutes, along with Al's (who played great). Smart also got pulled due to foul trouble or he could have been close to 40-minutes

Tatum 45
Brown 40
Smart 36
Horford 41
Theis 20
White 28
Grant 21
PP 8
 

amarshal2

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It wasn’t just foul trouble. Theis was ineffective and they had to bench him for white down the stretch. Grant also wasn’t great so in that situation Al is going to play a ton of minutes. With games 1-2-3 so spread out it should be fine for games 1 & 2. But after game 3 they play every other so if it continues it’s a big problem — perhaps the biggest problem for the Celtics visible from game 1.

I predict Rob comes back early if:
1) Theis doesn’t play much better
and
2) The Celtics are 2-2 or worse after 4 games

If the games stay this close someone is going to have to play more because Al can’t go 40 for the series and they looked lost without him.
 
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benhogan

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It wasn’t just foul trouble. Theis was ineffective and they had to bench him for white down the stretch. Grant also wasn’t great so in that situation Al is going to play a ton of minutes. With games 1-2-3 so spread out it should be fine for games 1 & 2. But after game 3 they play every other so if it continues it’s a big problem — perhaps the biggest problem for the Celtics visible from game 1.

I predict Rob comes back early if:
1) Theis doesn’t play much better
and
2) The Celtics are 2-2 or worse after 4 games

If the games stay this close someone is going to have to play more because Al can’t go 40 for the series and they looked lost without him.
That sounds about right in regards to Rob.

The extra rest, 2 more games over the next week, should help Al play major minutes in Games 1-4

Theis wasn't very good and is particularly ineffective when they call an aggressive whistle.

Grant for being so smart made a couple of dumb fouls on Durant when they were in the bonus. ALSO he better start nailing some 3s or he's losing that corner office
 

Eddie Jurak

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So Tatum gets 45 again but this time he was strong late. So his game 1 struggles in the 4th were not a minutes thing, but rather something he worked through and put behind him.