Loui Eriksson- Sign or Trade?

RedOctober3829 · Nov 20, 2015

If they can get a good young defenseman and good picks/prospects for him then do it. I don't trust Eriksson to continue this kind of productivity if he is signed to a long-term, big-money contract.

burstnbloom · Nov 20, 2015

The Loui conundrum is a tough nut to crack. He looks great out there and I believe he has been a very solid player for them for the last 2 seasons, at least. The decision that Sweeney has to make is not an easy one, though. The coffers are starting to look promising for young players in the organization, but they are all at least a few years away. Bergeron and Krejci are 30 and there isn't anyone in the system that looks like a reasonable replacement for them down the road. It is hard to envision trading him away for another 1st and a prospect and telling those guys that the Bruins just aren't going to be a contender again until they are close to the end.

I love Loui and I want to keep him but I can't deny the allure of trading him when he could be the most attractive deadline piece on the market. I wouldn't want to make this choice.

Eddie Jurak · Nov 20, 2015

Antoine Vermette was worth a first and a good prospect last year. Have to think Loui's price would be much higher.

That said, if the Bruins aren't going full on, blow it up, rebuild then he should probably be signed.

RIFan · Nov 20, 2015

I love Loui's all around game, but the future of this franchise rests on them finding a top pair defenseman to succeed Chara. Zboril is the only guy they have that projects to have a chance of being a top pair D. Those types of guys don't get traded very often, but if Loui is the best offensive piece available at the deadline someone may pay the ransom. Otherwise, I think I would start talking to him to see what it will take.

RedOctober3829 · Nov 20, 2015

Would anyone offer Eriksson to the Islanders for Hamonic? I know his preference is a WC team, but if the Islanders got the best deal from the Bruins they would have to take the deal. Right?

RIFan · Nov 20, 2015

Hamonic has some strong personal reasons that are more than a preference to go to western Canada. I don't think that would end well.

burstnbloom · Nov 20, 2015

RIFan said:
I love Loui's all around game, but the future of this franchise rests on them finding a top pair defenseman to succeed Chara. Zboril is the only guy they have that projects to have a chance of being a top pair D. Those types of guys don't get traded very often, but if Loui is the best offensive piece available at the deadline someone may pay the ransom. Otherwise, I think I would start talking to him to see what it will take.

Zboril probably doesn't have top pairing upside either, actually, but between Zboril, Lauzon and Carlo, the Bruins had a pretty good haul in last year's draft. Grezlych, Sherman and O'Gara will probably all join the organization this year as well and have top 6 upside, though they are totally different players. I think they are pretty stocked for the future from 3-6 but noone in the organization has number 1 upside, really. I don't know that Loui can bring in a commodity that high and if that is the goal, I fear we might end up missing on that.

Salem's Lot · Nov 20, 2015

Loui has been great this season but I have no interest in paying him $5+ million for his age 31-35 seasons. Hopefully he has around 20 goals at the deadline and they can get a first and a top defensive prospect for him.

timlinin8th · Nov 20, 2015

I love Loui on this team right now, but I don't see how he fits this team's future. I personally don't view this defense as being easily fixed and that hinders this team's ability to be a serious contender. I felt prior to the season, and still feel, that this team is a marginal playoff team with no real contender aspirations mostly because the D corps isn't strong enough to stop teams with top tier offenses. A quick glance at potential D UFAs doesn't lead me to believe that they can rebuild it on the fly in the next season or two, and if the Bruins continue to be a middling team they won't get anywhere via the draft either.

Unless they manage to get Loui to agree to a contract that isn't for much more than he's making now, or is short-term, retaining him may put too much of a stranglehold on the Bruins' future cap. I felt last season was the time to shoot the Greg Campbells and Dan Pailles into the sun and start getting young forwards experience, and still feel the longer they keep putting it off the worse off they are.

I don't know how much I trust Donny to handle trading Loui though... Hope he doesn't swap him for the 3rd rounder they used to get Shithead...

TheRealness · Nov 20, 2015

Don't sign him, trade him at the deadline.

I don't see this team competing for a cup, and it is likely they finish in the 7-10 range. There is no way they re-sign Loui, and I'd like for them to see if they can get some young close to NHL ready talent in return. It's the best way to manage him as an asset.

gingerbreadmann · Nov 20, 2015

RIFan said:
I love Loui's all around game, but the future of this franchise rests on them finding a top pair defenseman to succeed Chara. Zboril is the only guy they have that projects to have a chance of being a top pair D. Those types of guys don't get traded very often, but if Loui is the best offensive piece available at the deadline someone may pay the ransom. Otherwise, I think I would start talking to him to see what it will take.

Sigh.

On topic, Loui this year has been what I think we all hoped we were getting when he first came here. If he keeps up this pace he's in for a big payday and while 31 is not old and it's hard to replace his production, I'm really worried about the Bruins half-assing a rebuild and ponying up for offensive players in their prime while continuing to neglect the defense. I'm also worried that the team will be somewhere from the 6th-9th seed in the East at the deadline and that will keep Sweeney from selling even though the defense is nowhere near good enough to sustain a playoff run should we even make it.

I say sell unless the team really (and I mean really) finds its stride in the next 3.5 months. Even if his level of play is sustainable through the end of this year and beyond, which I don't necessarily doubt, it's a total waste on this team. But I'm a massive pessimist about the B's right now so feel free to ignore me.

Jordu · Nov 20, 2015

I'd sign him to 5/$25m. Ericsson has great hands, a great stick and a very high hockey IQ. Age doesn't diminish those skills at the same rate it diminishes speed and strength.

If this team is going to contend in the coming 3 or 4 years, it can't afford to give up it's second-best winger for a pick and a middling player. Yes, this team needs to get better on the blue line, and fast, but that can be done without trading a core player. Trade prospects or trade any winger who isn't Marchand or Ericsson.

Picks late in the first round (I assume Ericsson would go to a contender) can be Mark Stuarts or they can be Matt Lashoffs. The value of a proven NHL 20-goal guy who plays excellent defensive forward, both wings, the PP and the PK shouldn't be underestimated.

I suppose I'd think differently if the exchange for Ericsson were a young first-pairing D man signed for 2 or 3 years, but I don't see that happening.

Eddie Jurak · Nov 20, 2015

I think if you trade him you need to ask for 1+2+good prospect.

FelixMantilla · Nov 20, 2015

Sell high. He's not going to get any better.

McDrew · Nov 20, 2015

I hate to say this, but he needs to be sold.

1) Kelly is the biggest person coming off the cap next year at 3M
2) This team does not have offensive problems
3) This team DOES have defensive problems, and needs to make a trade for a 1B or 2A defenseman
4) So, trading Loui clears up cap space for a UFA defenseman, which clears up cap room next year
5) The B's have San Jose's 1st and maybe Edmonton's 2nd (EDM has the choice to delay the pick for Chia 1 year to the 2017 draft) So they can either acquire picks or prospects, and then deal either for a DMan.

veritas · Nov 21, 2015

I'm a huge Loui fan and it really pains me his time here was so cursed. Between the ridiculous expectations due to who we traded for him and his concussion issues, he never had a chance to be a fan favorite. He's really the JD Drew of the Bruins. Huge expectations, injury plagued, and plays the game with a seemingly effortless demeanor. But still a very good and enormously valuable player. He's one of the few Bruins players in recent history who I can focus on for a whole shift, ignore the rest of the game, and just enjoy the way he plays the game.

That being said, it's inexcusable not to trade him this season. Based on cshea's comparables, I think the Bruins can probably get a package similar in value to a Brett Connolly type prospect and a late 1st rounder. Preferably a defenseman, but the Bruins need to be focusing on acquiring long term talent and value at any positions they can. Sure those types of picks and players can be busts, but if you acquire a bunch of them, odds are very good you'll end up with some very good cost controlled players, which the Bruins are and will be in desperate need of in the next 5 years

jk333 · Nov 21, 2015

I'd go up to 5/25 but expect him to be offered 35-40M over 6/7 year contracts.

A trade seems necessary but a high end D prospect is most needed. I'd love to see Sweeney try to send Loui to Anaheim for Theodore or another of that level D prospect.

He could even add 1-2 mid tier Boston D prospects. To me, the Bruins have many prospects that have second pairing upside and a late 1st and prospect is bringing in more. If that's what they can get, okay, but it'd be nice to target a higher end guy who could contribute next year.

I guess this post is lamenting the Bruins getting Zboril instead of Hannifin. Just seems like draft pick futures for Eriksson would be helping a team with an aging core. It is better than nothing.

Toe Nash · Nov 21, 2015

31 is old in the NHL. He may be solid for another 2-3 years but I wouldn't count on production much longer than that. And his contract will be a good deal longer, so it had better not be here.

But, they will probably need to keep him around for whatever playoff run they have and get nothing in return after he leaves. Not sure I'd do any different, honestly, given the pressure to make the playoffs here.

timlinin8th · Nov 22, 2015

Another thing that is going to weigh heavily into the Loui decision is going to be all the guys that are going to be due raises in the next two seasons, specifically Marchand. I don't see how its going to be feasible to keep both him and Loui on the roster with a lot of the RFAs getting raises if you keep them. Extending Loui probably means giving up on Marchand, and with Brad being 4 years younger I don't see that making any sense.

2016 FA
Loui
Kelly
Talbot
Krug
Morrow
KMiller
CMiller
Trotman
Connolly
Kemppainen
Randell
Gustavsson

2017 FA
Marchand
Spooner
Vatrano
Pastrnak
Rinaldo

Obv Kelly and Talbot are gone, but they are in a spot with a lot of the young cheap D options they are playing right now all being due something. Going to have to make decisions on who stays and who goes and figure out how to allocate the cap money.

FL4WL3SS · Nov 22, 2015

Toe Nash said:
31 is old in the NHL. He may be solid for another 2-3 years but I wouldn't count on production much longer than that. And his contract will be a good deal longer, so it had better not be here.

But, they will probably need to keep him around for whatever playoff run they have and get nothing in return after he leaves. Not sure I'd do any different, honestly, given the pressure to make the playoffs here.

31 is not old in the NHL. Guys routinely play into their late 30s with effectiveness.

Loui would be a very nice complimentary piece in his mid 30s. The only reason I would be hesitant is the price tag, the Bruins don't have a great salary cap situation.

Otherwise, he fits very well on this team. Outside of Bergeron and Krejci, he's the most important forward on the Bruins.

Toe Nash · Nov 22, 2015

We've had this conversation a million times. Studies show that forward scoring peaks at around 25-27, and players retain most of their scoring up to around 30, and then on average it drops a lot. Good players tend to drop off less, but unless he's Jagr, it's unwise to count on Loui being particularly valuable into his mid-30s.

I mean, I guess it depends how you define "effectiveness" but for UFA money he's almost definitely not going to be worth it unless they had loads of cap space, which they clearly don't. It's a risky bet they can't really afford to make.

PedroSpecialK · Nov 22, 2015

Hossa's one of the only others I can think of who's got similarities to Loui and who didn't fall off. IMO you've got to move him if he can't be retained at under ~$5.25m AAV (and I think he'd be crazy to not test the open market)

I'd look to get a developing piece and a first rounder for him. I look at somewhere between the Kesler and Hossa trades as two close comps to what I'd be looking for - one piece on the level of Sbisa/Bonino and a mid-late first rounder.

The cap picture gets rosier after this season for sure, for a bunch of reasons - Lucic salary off the books, $969k overage gone, Kelly/Talbot/K Miller off the books, etc.

For 2016-17, the Bruins have $48.9m committed in AAV for the following roster:

Beleskey - Krejci - Pastrnak
Marchand - Bergeron - Vatrano
XX - Spooner - Hayes
Shithead - XX - XX

Chara - XX
Seidenberg - XX
XX - McQuaid
XX

Rask
XX

RFAs and their estimates (spoilered) brings the Bruins to around $58.6m and leaves 3 forward spots and a backup G to fill. Assuming a promotion of Blidh, Czarnik, and one of Subban/McIntyre, roster spots begin to dry up pretty quickly.

Krug - $5m
Connolly - $2.2m
C. Miller - $2m
Morrow - $1.5m
Trotman/7D - $1m

As far as the future beyond next year, I'm not too concerned with cap flexibility, even if the cap remains around where it is now. A nice added bonus is that Chara's cap hit drops $2.916m for 2017-18 so they'd have additional relief there to re-sign Marchand.

FL4WL3SS · Nov 22, 2015

Toe Nash said:
We've had this conversation a million times. Studies show that forward scoring peaks at around 25-27, and players retain most of their scoring up to around 30, and then on average it drops a lot. Good players tend to drop off less, but unless he's Jagr, it's unwise to count on Loui being particularly valuable into his mid-30s.

I mean, I guess it depends how you define "effectiveness" but for UFA money he's almost definitely not going to be worth it unless they had loads of cap space, which they clearly don't. It's a risky bet they can't really afford to make.

Yeah I know, this is your crutch.

I guess Bergeron and Krejci should be traded too.

Loui brings a lot more to the team than scoring, but continue to cite that as your only argument. He'll be effective well into his 30s, even if he's just merely a solid 3rd line player by the time he's 35. There's value in guys like that, regardless if you can see it or not.

I already mentioned I will probably have a problem with the price tag, but they could do a lot worse than 4-5 more years of Loui.

BoSoxFink · Nov 23, 2015

FL4WL3SS said:
Yeah I know, this is your crutch.

I guess Bergeron and Krejci should be traded too.

Loui brings a lot more to the team than scoring, but continue to cite that as your only argument. He'll be effective well into his 30s, even if he's just merely a solid 3rd line player by the time he's 35. There's value in guys like that, regardless if you can see it or not.

I already mentioned I will probably have a problem with the price tag, but they could do a lot worse than 4-5 more years of Loui.

So your argument is even if he does fall off and become a third line player, it's perfectly fine to be paying him 6-7 million a year? That wil be a brutal cap hit for a player, who may still have value, but not first or second line value. He'd be a slightly more talented Chris Kelly if he fell off like that. Only he'd be getting paid twice as much as Kelly.

I don't doubt there is value in solid third line players. But not at the cap hit it will cost to sign Loui. If they sign him, they need to be confident he will produce offensively as will, due to the money it will take.

kenneycb · Nov 23, 2015

Read his last sentence again.

BoSoxFink · Nov 23, 2015

kenneycb said:
Read his last sentence again.

Yup, definitely missed that......

BigMike · Nov 24, 2015

PedroSpecialK said:
Hossa's one of the only others I can think of who's got similarities to Loui and who didn't fall off. IMO you've got to move him if he can't be retained at under ~$5.25m AAV (and I think he'd be crazy to not test the open market)

I'd look to get a developing piece and a first rounder for him. I look at somewhere between the Kesler and Hossa trades as two close comps to what I'd be looking for - one piece on the level of Sbisa/Bonino and a mid-late first rounder.

The cap picture gets rosier after this season for sure, for a bunch of reasons - Lucic salary off the books, $969k overage gone, Kelly/Talbot/K Miller off the books, etc.

For 2016-17, the Bruins have $48.9m committed in AAV for the following roster:

Beleskey - Krejci - Pastrnak
Marchand - Bergeron - Vatrano
XX - Spooner - Hayes
Shithead - XX - XX

Chara - XX
Seidenberg - XX
XX - McQuaid
XX

Rask
XX

The problem with that is that is a shitty hockey team. I still don't like Belesky as a 1rst line player Vatrano on line #2 makes that line tiny. And while we like the local kid, his AHL burst was way out of character for the player he was in college and I am very unconvinced he is a top 6 player in the NHL, definitely unconvinced that he gets there next year

I am torn on Eriksson. I think this is the guy we traded for and he is a top 25 winger in hockey. I do think they need to make a decision on him, and either resign him or put him on auction. If I thought the team could compete for a Cup in the next 2 years, there is no question I keep him. But I am just not sure there is a way to make that happen, so that lead me to lean towards trading him

PedroSpecialK · Nov 24, 2015

I should have clarified - with ~$10-12m in cap space, the Bruins would have the money to cash in some prospects and trade for a replacement forward on the right side of 30 in addition to another top 4 defender. That also pushes Beleskey down to line 3 - in terms of trade targets, there are some interesting upcoming RFAs (Schwartz, Hoffman) - and Matt Duchene is widely known to be on the block.

Also, not happening ever but... Stamkos is still a pending UFA :fonz:

Reardon's Beard · Nov 24, 2015

I really like Loui and his two way game. 31 isn't 36 either. If they could keep him at something like 5/28 or thereabouts I love it. Otherwise it would seem the numbers tell the tale.

Dummy Hoy · Nov 27, 2015

BigMike said:
The problem with that is that is a shitty hockey team. I still don't like Belesky as a 1rst line player Vatrano on line #2 makes that line tiny. And while we like the local kid, his AHL burst was way out of character for the player he was in college and I am very unconvinced he is a top 6 player in the NHL, definitely unconvinced that he gets there next year

I am torn on Eriksson. I think this is the guy we traded for and he is a top 25 winger in hockey. I do think they need to make a decision on him, and either resign him or put him on auction. If I thought the team could compete for a Cup in the next 2 years, there is no question I keep him. But I am just not sure there is a way to make that happen, so that lead me to lean towards trading him

Really? Jesus.

Your second paragraph is very sensible, but c'mon.

Loui Eriksson- Sign or Trade?

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