MLB Pipeline has graded Mayer’s hit tool at 60 on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale, tied for the top grade in this year’s Draft class. Chipper Jones and Carlos Correa have also come up in offensive conversations, but Mayer’s defensive instincts and strong arm (he also received a 60 grade for the glove) have also drawn major comps.
“He’s like a combination of Seager and [Giants shortstop Brandon] Crawford for me,” an NL national scout told MLB.com in June. “But his body and the ease to the game he shows is more [Manny] Machado-esque.”
All expectations were that Boston would go for a college guy at pick 4 ... but that was predicated on the assumption that Marcelo Mayer would be gone. (I heard more directly that they wouldn't take Jordan Lawlar.) The Red Sox are certainly in position to wait on Mayer's upside; he's a true shortstop with a beautiful left-handed swing that looks like it'll lead to power as he fills out. I thought he and Henry Davis were essentially 1 and 1A in this draft class -- Davis offers more certainty, as a college player with a strong track record and a short timeline to the majors, but Mayer offers some more upside and also has the value of playing a premium position.
Marcelo Mayer was ranked No. 1 on Keith Law's Big Board: "Mayer is a left-handed hitting shortstop who doesn’t have the pure upside of Jordan Lawlar, but may be a more advanced hitter for his age. He has a great swing with good balance and the potential for plus power, and he’s a potential 60 defender at short as well. He’s stronger than you’d think on first glance, especially in his wrists and forearms, and could unlock some more power if he adapts his swing to add some sort of stride or weight transfer and stops rolling his front foot. He has great hands at shortstop and there seems to be little doubt he’ll stay at the position. The bat is a carrying tool here, and given his defensive value he has clear superstar upside, although I think it’s his floor as a plus defender who hits for some average that makes him especially appealing."
As I posted in the draft thread, He currently projects as C Seager on defense and Yelich on offenseRanked as #1 as a hitter...and #1 as a defender on mlb.com: https://www.mlb.com/news/top-tools-in-2021-mlb-draft
Status of Sox Farm System = upgraded!
He has to sign by Aug 1. He'll probably get a few games in the Florida Complex League in August. It's possible they could send him to low-A Salem but, more likely, he'll start there next year. Yorke (1st rounder from 2020, top pick) didn't play after he was drafted due to the cancellation of last year's minor league season but started this year in Salem. Both Chavis and Casas (last two 1st round high school position players before Yorke) played in the complex league before starting the following year in low-A.So to which minor league team will he go and about when will he appear in his first game? Should be more or less right away? I don't really recall how soon after the draft players make their MiLB debut.
Okay, thanks. Good to know.He has to sign by Aug 1. He'll probably get a few games in the Florida Complex League in August. It's possible they could send him to low-A Salem but, more likely, he'll start there next year. Yorke (1st rounder from 2020, top pick) didn't play after he was drafted due to the cancellation of last year's minor league season but started this year in Salem. Both Chavis and Casas (last two 1st round high school position players before Yorke) played in the complex league before starting the following year in low-A.
A linear developmental path would look something like this:Okay, thanks. Good to know.
Thanks. Long road to the bigs!A linear developmental path would look something like this:
Yr 0 (age 18) - complex league
Yr 1 (19) - low-A/high-A
Yr 2 (20) - high-A/AA
Yr 3 (21) - AA/AAA
Yr 4 (22) - AAA/majors
I note that Bobby Witt, Jr, who was drafted #2 in 2019 (at age 19), played the complex league in 2019, skipped 2020 due to the cancellation of the minor league season and started 2021 in AA. So it's entirely possible that Mayer could move faster than the linear path. KC tends to push its prospects quickly.
I just never get very excited about HS prospects. He hits HS pitching and looks like a player.
It's okay to be excited when the Red Sox select the kid that was the consensus #1 draft prospect.Scouts are sometimes right, and sometimes wrong. But much of this "natural instincts" stuff sounds like "calm eyes."
Much happier with Mayer better upside as a hitter. Lawlar is almost a year older with more swing and miss. On the other hand, Lawlar’s more athletic. I think if you’re going with a high school bat, which is inherently a little risky, take the better pure hit tool.Curious to hear people’s thoughts about the Sox taking Mayer over Lawler (who is thought to have higher upside according to some reports).
Here is the full list of high school shortstops drafted in the top 10 picks since 2010:I just never get very excited about HS prospects. He hits HS pitching and looks like a player.
This exactly.It's okay to be excited when the Red Sox select the kid that was the consensus #1 draft prospect.
Reminds me of one of the years the Bruins had Toronto’s pick from the Kessel trade.The Leafs had disappointingly played well enough to push the pick all the way to 9 (after handing over the #2 the year before).This exactly.
Look at @ehaz’s list of recent SS drafted top 10 above. We can’t know how this pick will turn out. No one can, of course. But in the moment it’s the best possible outcome in many ways.
As it became clear that the 2020 “season” would be a disaster for the Sox, the hope was that they would put themselves in the best possible position to draft a franchise cornerstone with (we hope) the only Top 5 draft selection we’ll see in the near future. Enter Mayer, the consensus #1 pick in the draft for a reason, picked as such by well-respected sites and scouts. That’s cause for excitement, and — this part may be more controversial — to me, it shouldn’t be entirely contingent on how it pans out. Sports and life itself are inherently uncertain. ACLs and wrists and bones are fragile, human emotions and responses to fame and fortune are unpredictable, and projecting what any of us at 18 years old will be in 5-10 years is always an educated guess.
So the Sox took a gamble on one of the best possible bets to become a good player. This is, in my view, a great result.
This is music to my ears..........Reminds me of one of the years the Bruins had Toronto’s pick from the Kessel trade.The Leafs had disappointingly played well enough to push the pick all the way to 9 (after handing over the #2 the year before).
Led to much gnashing of teeth at the time, but sure enough one of the best players in the draft (Dougie Hamilton) slipped to them after every mock had him gone by then.
If they were never really going to have a chance for Leiter to slip past 2, this is best case scenario given the “unfortunate” extra wins they got.
Funny to think about all the scouting that goes into deciding between all the different guys you expect available at 4 only to have the consensus #1 make it easy for you. I feel like last year may be closer to the kind of thing we can expect from Chaim in future drafts with lower picks, but I’m very glad he went chalk here. Whether they had other plans up their sleeve, there was no passing this up. If he is hitting well into the next season or two, his ranking figures to skyrocket, which makes him super valuable even if he never steps foot in a Boston uniform.
Edit: koufax, it sounds like he is interested in getting a deal done quickly to get on the field ASAP:
https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/what-marcelo-mayer-means-to-the-future-of-the-red-sox“I don’t want to put the cart before the horse here, but I think, and I’ll leave this up to player development, my guess would be we’d get his feet wet in the complex league, just get him adjusted to the pro lifestyle a little bit," Toboni explained. "He had a really long season and I’m sure his body’s fatigued to some degree. Just getting him accustomed to our programs and the way we do things. I think it’s such an advantage to have a facility like we do in Fort Myers. My guess is that’s where he would start. How long he might be down there, I’m not exactly sure.”
Take Speier’s quote with a grain of salt. Of course he’s lifted weights! From the Athletic:He's never lifted weights and he was projected as the #1 overall pick? That is... something.
Edit: the quote was from an Alex Speier twitter quote of Paul Toboni“Usually after high school season, summer ball starts right after and you don’t really have time to work out,” Mayer said. “I used that time to just hit the weight room, try to get stronger, faster, more flexible, which ended up helping me in the long run.”