Marcelo Mayer, and his gorgeous hair, drafted by Sox / 4 Overall

Niastri

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While he has at least seen the inside of a weight room, he hasn't had anything like the workouts he is going to get once he gets to Sox camp in Florida. I remember the effect on my body when I did a daily regimen with Jeremy Freeman, former world body building champion. He has a gym in Syracuse where he runs 42 days in a row of working out. I wasn't in terrible shape going in, but the transformation was amazing... I wish I could afford to do it every year.

Mayer is in for 20 years of that intensity. He will look entirely different before we see him in Boston. But he isn't a stick figure now.
 

sodenj5

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Take Speier’s quote with a grain of salt. Of course he’s lifted weights! From the Athletic:
He very much has a Yelich-like build. He doesn’t need to be huge, but it’s easy to project another 10 pounds on his frame and adding some more pop.

If the Sox were going to miss out on Leiter, this is the next best thing, and might even be preferred. I was rooting hard for Leiter because the Sox haven’t had a home grown ace in a long time, but they have a pretty strong record of developing positional players.

Also, Xander’s opt out situation has zero to do with selecting Mayer and it’s pretty likely he won’t be ready for the majors if Bogaerts opts out.
 

RG33

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Some interesting and exciting quotes from Sox scout JJ Altobelli and Amateur Scouting Director Paul Toboni from the Chad Jennings article on The Athletic:
“He’s obviously an extremely talented baseball player,” Altobelli said. “(But the) thing that impressed me the most was just who he is as a person. The way he interacts with his teammates and the way he handles himself on the field. Mature beyond his years and extremely humble. Plays the game the right way and was a pleasure to have the opportunity to watch him play this year.”
“Marcelo embodies all those things to me, and he was in the back of my mind (as I said those things),” Toboni said. “He has this unique ability to bring out the best in people around him in a way where he challenges you and he also endears himself to you. He’s just a special, special kid.”
“You talk about quarterbacks slowing the game down, right?,” Toboni said. “This kid slows the game down both at shortstop and when he’s in the box. It’s like he’s always under control. … He’s a big kid, he’s probably 6-3, he’s never lifted a weight before though. He moves with such loose, comfortable action. That excites us as scouts because we see a lot of runway (for him to get even better) going forward. I guess the second thing that jumps out at you, once he starts playing catch and going through pregame and eventually getting into the game, he has such a natural feel to play the game and such natural instincts to play the game.”
“I throw those names out there not to set expectations for him or anything,” Toboni said. “But I say Seager because Marcelo does have a little bit of a bigger build. I say Brandon Crawford because, if you watch this kid take pregame groundballs, he’s one of the cockiest defenders I’ve ever seen in my life. I say that with positive tone behind it, where he’s flipping balls with his glove, and catching balls through the legs, and going behind the back. It’s not like he’s showing off. It’s just kind of his nature. It all comes pretty easy to him.”
The article for those with Athletic subscriptions: https://theathletic.com/2701354/2021/07/11/red-sox-ecstatic-after-projected-top-pick-marcelo-mayer-falls-to-them/
 

Rovin Romine

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Not gonna lie - after the comments in the other thread, I expected better hair
I thought they were talking about his eyebrows.

Here is the full list of high school shortstops drafted in the top 10 picks since 2010:

- Bobby Witt Jr (MLB #7 prospect)
- CJ Abrams (MLB #8 prospect)
- Royce Lewis (MLB #17 prospect)
- Brendan Rodgers (MLB #10 prospect before his 2019 debut)
- Nick Gordon (ehh… but at least he made it to the majors)
- Carlos Correa
- Francisco Lindor
- Javier Baez
- Manny Machado

So you have 4 all-stars, a bunch of blue chip prospects and Nick Gordon.

Not bad company.
It's a nice list. What really matters is do Mayer's body and skills translate into a good chance of him making the majors and/or having trade value? It seems likely based on the pick itself. It'd be great if that were the case.

Possibly someone has quantified the skills, made projections based in comparisons of stat-castable stuff. . .but forgive me the eyeroll at the scout/agent-speak H-O-F hyperbole, for a kid who wasn't on anyone's radar a couple of months ago.
 

BringBackMo

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I thought they were talking about his eyebrows.



It's a nice list. What really matters is do Mayer's body and skills translate into a good chance of him making the majors and/or having trade value? It seems likely based on the pick itself. It'd be great if that were the case.

Possibly someone has quantified the skills, made projections based in comparisons of stat-castable stuff. . .but forgive me the eyeroll at the scout/agent-speak H-O-F hyperbole, for a kid who wasn't on anyone's radar a couple of months ago.
If that’s a “nice” list, what is your definition of an outstanding list? In any case, sure: we forgive you the eyeroll. Can you forgive the rest of us the excitement over getting a player who wasn’t on anyone’s radar a couple of days ago as possibly attainable in this draft?
 

KingChre

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I thought they were talking about his eyebrows.



It's a nice list. What really matters is do Mayer's body and skills translate into a good chance of him making the majors and/or having trade value? It seems likely based on the pick itself. It'd be great if that were the case.

Possibly someone has quantified the skills, made projections based in comparisons of stat-castable stuff. . .but forgive me the eyeroll at the scout/agent-speak H-O-F hyperbole, for a kid who wasn't on anyone's radar a couple of months ago.

This just isn't accurate.

From Fangraphs via WEEI.com

"Mayer wasn't at as many national events during the 2020 summer since, like most West Coast prospects, he was farthest away from the Southeast states with loose COVID restrictions where they were held. Working in Mayer's favor is that many decision-making team personnel had already seen plenty of him since he shared an infield with former Twins first round pick Keoni Cavaco, and at the time Cavaco was drafted, area scouts thought that Mayer was already the better prospect. This is the most well-rounded player in the draft, a teenage shortstop with a chance to hit for contact, power, and stay at a premium defensive position. He is rhythmic and quiet in the box, covers the whole strike zone, and has surprising power for how effortless his swing is, including to the opposite field. Mayer is a waist-bender and a below-average runner, so there are some club personnel who believe he won't be a shortstop long-term, but he has the hands, actions, and arm strength for the position."

Cavaco was drafted in 2019. I understand the reticence in crowning an 18 year old before he has stepped on the field professionally, but as far as draft picks go, if you aren't going to get a little excited about this one, who would excite you?
 

burstnbloom

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I thought they were talking about his eyebrows.



It's a nice list. What really matters is do Mayer's body and skills translate into a good chance of him making the majors and/or having trade value? It seems likely based on the pick itself. It'd be great if that were the case.

Possibly someone has quantified the skills, made projections based in comparisons of stat-castable stuff. . .but forgive me the eyeroll at the scout/agent-speak H-O-F hyperbole, for a kid who wasn't on anyone's radar a couple of months ago.
Eric Longenhagen said on his podcast last week that he was in Chula Vista to scout Keoni Cavaco (drafted 13 by Minny) in 2019 and he saw Mayer. He was impressed and asked the area scouts there about him and he was told that he was going to be a star and much better than Cavaco. Kevin Goldstein responded with "oh ya he's super famous." Mayer has been a rumored top 10 pick in this draft for a couple of years and the industry knows a lot about him and has for years. I don't think the bolded is even close to fair. It's like saying noone knew anything about Carlos Correa when he was drafted.

edit - im a repeater
 

Koufax

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It's probably a very different vibe if you show the list of batters who went no. 4 in the draft.
 

Niastri

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Rodgers is starting to figure it out too.

Batters who go as #1 overall picks have been really solid since 1977. The bust rate is higher than pitchers because they break.

1977 - Harold Baines (Lol of Fame)
1978 - Bob Horner
1979 - Al Chambers
1980 - Darryl Strawberry
1982 - Shawon Dunston
1984 - Shawn Abner
1985 - BJ Surhoff
1986 - Jeff King
1987 - Ken Griffey Jr. (HoF)
1990 - Chipper Jones (HoF)
1992 - Phil Nevin
1993 - Alex Rodriguez (HoF)
1995 - Darin Erstad
1996 - Pat Burrell
1999 - Josh Hamilton
2000 - Adrian Gonzalez
2001 - Joe Mauer
2003 - Delmon Young
2004 - Matt Bush
2005 - Justin Upton
2008 - Tim Beckham
2010 - Bryce Harper
2012 - Carlos Correa
2015 - Dansby Swanson

This is predictive of nothing, but 16 of those 24 players were all-stars, 2 others had 10+ year careers, and Dansby is meh but holding the job down.
So, you have 4 Hall of Fame players, and two others who would have been but for drugs and a few other really good players with shots at the Hall. Nice list. Mayer wasn't actually picked first, though.
 

Rovin Romine

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If that’s a “nice” list, what is your definition of an outstanding list? In any case, sure: we forgive you the eyeroll. Can you forgive the rest of us the excitement over getting a player who wasn’t on anyone’s radar a couple of days ago as possibly attainable in this draft?
Since you seem to think my opinion is related to yours somehow, would it make you feel better if I squealed like an 8-year old? If so, Sqeeee!!!! Now go and be validated.

Mayer has been a rumored top 10 pick in this draft for a couple of years and the industry knows a lot about him and has for years.
Well, that's good to hear.
 

DJnVa

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I’m .but forgive me the eyeroll at the scout/agent-speak H-O-F hyperbole, for a kid who wasn't on anyone's radar a couple of months ago.
You’re misinformed about how long ago he was on scout’s radar. He was seen a lot because he played with someone drafted last year and many scouts saw Marcelo as better then.
 

soxhop411

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KG: My goodness. To wake up in the morning still trying to direct Leiter their way, have that fail, and still end up with the top talent in the draft has to have been quite the roller coaster. There is no world where this could have gone better for Boston.

EL: The rich get richer as Boston, currently leading the Al East, nabbed the best player in the draft. Mayer doesn’t run well and he’s a waist-bender, but his hands and actions are smooth and quick, and even if he fills out and ends up built like Corey Seager, he has a shot to stay at shortstop while also presenting among the best hit/power combinations in the high school class. He’s a potential perennial All-Star and he’s been universally acclaimed as a prospect since his sophomore year of high school.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/day-1-draft-recap-2/
 

sean1562

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Batters drafted at #4 since 1980

2019: JJ Bleday
2018: Nick Madrigal
2014: Kyle Schwarber
2010: Christian Colon
2009: Tony Sanchez
2005: Ryan Zimmerman
1999: Corey Myers
1994: Antone Williamson
1992: Jeffrey Hammonds
1991: Dmitri Young
1989: Jeff Jackson
1985: Barry Larkin
1984: Cory Snyder
1983: Eddie Williams
1981: Terry Blocker

Of those, Zimmerman, Larkin, and Young have accumulated more than 10 bWAR. Schwarber almost definitely will and Madrigal looks like a pretty good bet to do so as well. Larkin is the only HoF, Zimmerman a Hall of Very Good guy. Nobody else comes close to those two.

The MLB Draft is just a lot more guesswork than other leagues. It is fun to project how these players will fit into our team into the future but most of the guys we select over the next few days will be lucky to get to AAA.

edit: Looking back at the history of each individual pick in the top 10 over the last 20 or so years, the #4 pick is kind of the worst one lol. Lots of college arms that never made the transition to pro ball successfully and then Kerry Wood.
 
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Merkle's Boner

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I would imagine it means he bends more at the waist to field ground balls as opposed to bending more at the knees? Perhaps that gets to a lack of range?
Not a scout either, that's just how i interpret that criticism
Yeah I agree but it strikes me that it's something that is easily corrected.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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As someone who was totally in the Leiter camp, this is an incredible outcome. He's got a high floor and a skyscraper ceiling. I love hearing about the intangibles. Bringing out the best in the people around him, the calmness. It could all be lip service, but if those are accurate on top of his projected skill, you got a young leader on top of a killer talent.

Now I'm going to take a cold shower.
 

cantor44

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Since you seem to think my opinion is related to yours somehow, would it make you feel better if I squealed like an 8-year old? If so, Sqeeee!!!! Now go and be validated.



Well, that's good to hear.
I certainly understand that any 18-year-old prospect should be regarded with a degree of restraint. It's a long road from High School to the bigs - that is a legit point to make. Though Mayer has been universally touted as arguably the best overall prospect this draft, so the Sox getting him naturally has some folks excited. So - there may be a discussion about tempering one's enthusiasm that could be had here, but I don't get the "squealed like an 8-year-old/ "go and be validated" stuff ...? Not sure if this was the intention, but it reads as a kind of out of proportion hostility. Maybe it's all in "fun" but that's not how it reads, and the anger seems completely unnecessary and jarring ... this is a baseball forum. People were excited about a promising draft prospect. Doesn't seem to merit being vitriolic ...

I suspect the response will be that I'm being pedantic or a snowflake or self-righteous or humorless. Okay. But - just putting it out there how this reads in print with no tone of voice or facial expression to temper sarcasm and communicate intention ....And how unjustified it then seems.
 

BringBackMo

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Since you seem to think my opinion is related to yours somehow, would it make you feel better if I squealed like an 8-year old? If so, Sqeeee!!!! Now go and be validated.



Well, that's good to hear.
Well that's good to hear. Say it again and, you know, still good to hear.
 

Omar's Wacky Neighbor

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Leaving in a bit to the studio :)
I would imagine it means he bends more at the waist to field ground balls as opposed to bending more at the knees?
Bends at the waist, rather than crouching down to keep a bad hop in front of him would be my guess. Coaching youth lacrosse: bending at the waist to pick up a ground ball is considered lazy vs a deep squat/get low while you 'pick it and kiss it'. It's a habit that we tried to break when the players were really young.
 

chrisfont9

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Since many if not all of us here were in the Leiter camp, I wonder if it's fair to ask whether this is a better outcome than getting the top pitcher in a more generic sense. We don't really know much about what a teenager will turn into so on the individual level we can marvel at the scouting reports and hope that they turn out to be true. But more generally, is getting the top position player preferable to the top pitcher, now that guys who throw gas and rack up strikeouts are fairly common? Is it overreacting to a short-term trend to think that good hitting position players are suddenly now as scarce and precious a commodity as ace starting pitchers have been for most of my lifetime? Picking Mayer carries the opportunity cost of not getting Rocker or whoever you had next. But the Sox just patched together a starting rotation of guys whose current level is not far from Rocker's ceiling, and they did it with a modest trade, a couple FA signings, and the investments in Edro and Eovaldi -- nothing terribly straining on the organization.
 

DavidTai

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Since many if not all of us here were in the Leiter camp, I wonder if it's fair to ask whether this is a better outcome than getting the top pitcher in a more generic sense.
I was in the Leiter camp mostly because I did not, in any way, expect Mayer to fall to 4. He seemed like a pie in the sky.

I think, on pure talent alone, he's either 1-1 or 1-2.
 

Rovin Romine

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I suspect the response will be that I'm being pedantic or a snowflake or self-righteous or humorless. Okay. But - just putting it out there how this reads in print with no tone of voice or facial expression to temper sarcasm and communicate intention ....And how unjustified it then seems.
Tone's hard to read, and that's on me. Consider the thread policed.

I wish Mayer all the best, and want him to be successful. But enthusiasm can generate some pretty massive millstones in the form of comparison - so I'll keep my adjectives toned down.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Looked at the 2021 International Signings and the Sox have 3 SS's - which makes sense since the best kids are Shortstops.

I wonder how that feeds into the system.

(edit - also...2 Venezualan pitchers / 1 catcher)
 

LogansDad

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Since many if not all of us here were in the Leiter camp, I wonder if it's fair to ask whether this is a better outcome than getting the top pitcher in a more generic sense. We don't really know much about what a teenager will turn into so on the individual level we can marvel at the scouting reports and hope that they turn out to be true. But more generally, is getting the top position player preferable to the top pitcher, now that guys who throw gas and rack up strikeouts are fairly common? Is it overreacting to a short-term trend to think that good hitting position players are suddenly now as scarce and precious a commodity as ace starting pitchers have been for most of my lifetime? Picking Mayer carries the opportunity cost of not getting Rocker or whoever you had next. But the Sox just patched together a starting rotation of guys whose current level is not far from Rocker's ceiling, and they did it with a modest trade, a couple FA signings, and the investments in Edro and Eovaldi -- nothing terribly straining on the organization.
I think that getting the top hitter, who also has the potential to be a plus defender at one of the most important defensive positions on the field, is a better case scenario, personally. I am ecstatic.
 

BusRaker

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Keith Law: Red Sox betting on Mayer's upside

"I thought he and Henry Davis were essentially 1 and 1A in this draft class -- Davis offers more certainty, as a college player with a strong track record and a short timeline to the majors, but Mayer offers some more upside and also has the value of playing a premium position."
Since when is catcher not a premium position? Is he assuming Henry is done as a catcher?
 

cantor44

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Tone's hard to read, and that's on me. Consider the thread policed.

I wish Mayer all the best, and want him to be successful. But enthusiasm can generate some pretty massive millstones in the form of comparison - so I'll keep my adjectives toned down.
Yes, tone hard to read - something intended to funny can come off otherwise, no doubt, I'm often guilty of that myself. Meanwhile, not trying to "police" ... shit, you can say whatever you like I suppose ... just reacting to how it effects the experience of the reader (or, this reader in this instance). Do with it what you will!
 

ColdSoxPack

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Did everyone catch Alex Spiers story posted today at 2:48 pm? It makes Marcelo being available? Could a subtitle of this thread be Curb Your Enthusiasm?

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom took a trip to California in early June to meet with Mayer in person. The Red Sox recognized they might not have a crack at the shortstop. The Pirates were widely expected to take him at No. 1, and even if they didn’t, the Tigers – whose special assistant, Hall of Famer Alan Trammell, took up quasi-residence at Eastlake – seemed determined to take him.