OK Mahomes is Louis XIII, Maye is Courvoisier, and Mac Jones is turpentine strained through white bread.
Maye-day Every Day
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Mac is absinthe, it sounds like good idea initially but it quickly turns into a horrid nightmare.
I am going to disagree when it comes to Chicago.
I said it before the draft and still maintain that Caleb Williams is going to ultimately be a bust.
That is the most disgusting thing I've ever drank in my life and that includes a bar mat shot.
You could probably come up with a lot of reasons, but for one: Maye is two years younger
Tolerable on the first taste, then just gets worse from there .... leading to nightmares for years.
Too bad Mac wasn't moonshine. The resulting blindness would prevent seeing Mac playing.
So since becoming a starter Maye is:
5th in big time throws
1st in QB rushing yards
1st in EPA/Play on scrambles
10th in EPA/Play under pressure
1st in turnover worthy plays
So far he's lived up to his prospect status: the athleticism absolutely plays and helps make up for the 31st ranked pass blocking OL, but the spurts of inaccuracy/trying too hard to be Superman have cost him. All in all, I think Van Pelt has put him in position to actually try and play Quarterback instead of giving him a bunch of easy stuff to complete while getting the ball out of his hands quickly, which I believe will ultimately be good for his development, while potentially hurting his box score stats or even the team's odds of winning right now. Better weapons and OL would help a lot obviously, but he needs to understand game context a little better without losing the aggressiveness. So far, a whole lot to like, especially because I belive many of those turnover worthy plays were a result of bad mechanics/accuracy and not dumb mistakes. I think a lot of what he does poorly is fixable through coaching and a better environment around him, while his strengths have played at a reasonably high level even under less than ideal circumstances.
5th in big time throws
1st in QB rushing yards
1st in EPA/Play on scrambles
10th in EPA/Play under pressure
1st in turnover worthy plays
So far he's lived up to his prospect status: the athleticism absolutely plays and helps make up for the 31st ranked pass blocking OL, but the spurts of inaccuracy/trying too hard to be Superman have cost him. All in all, I think Van Pelt has put him in position to actually try and play Quarterback instead of giving him a bunch of easy stuff to complete while getting the ball out of his hands quickly, which I believe will ultimately be good for his development, while potentially hurting his box score stats or even the team's odds of winning right now. Better weapons and OL would help a lot obviously, but he needs to understand game context a little better without losing the aggressiveness. So far, a whole lot to like, especially because I belive many of those turnover worthy plays were a result of bad mechanics/accuracy and not dumb mistakes. I think a lot of what he does poorly is fixable through coaching and a better environment around him, while his strengths have played at a reasonably high level even under less than ideal circumstances.
To your bolded point, the passing playbook seems more wide-open with Maye than Brissett.
The counting stats just aren't there yet for Maye in the passing game. No 300 yard games. Only one game with more than 250 passing yards. But you can see the talent.
In the games he's started (and basically played the whole game), these are the numbers:
41-21 loss to Hou: 20-33, 243 yds, 3 td, 2 int, 5 rushes, 38 yds, 1 fumble
32-16 loss to Jax: 26-37, 276 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 3 rushes, 18 yds
20-17 loss to Ten: 29-41, 206 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 8 rushes, 95 yds
19-3 win over Chi: 15-25, 184 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 4 rushes, 24 yds
TOT: 90-136 (66.2%), 909 yds, 6.7 y/a, 7 td, 5 int, 20 rushes, 175 yds, 8.8 y/a, 1 fumble
He's inconsistent (no surprise) and he makes mistakes (no surprise). But he's also a big play machine who can get it done with both his legs and his arm. Accounting for 1084 yards in these four starts (271 yds per game in these four starts). That's very good. Josh Allen, by the way, averages 254 yards per game (passing + rushing). Mahomes, 264. Herbert, 223. Hurts, 262. Daniels, 261. Lamar is in another universe, averaging 321 yards.
So Maye can really get it done, and he's doing it with mediocre skill position players and a subpar (at best) offensive line. The mistakes can be cleaned up as he matures.
His counting stats will never get better until he gets better weapons. That's the unfortunate reality.
Here are the top Pats receivers Yards after catch:
Henry: 40 catches, 180 yards after catch (YAC), 4.5 YAC/R (much improved over the 1.9 he had last year)
Pop: 39 catches, 206 yards, 5.3 YAC/R
Hooper: 19 catches, 125 yards, 6.56 YAC/R
Boutte: 17 catches, 31 yards, 1.8 YAC/R
Polk: 11 catches, 3 yards, .3 YAC/R
Rhamondre: 24 catches, 150 yards, 6.3 YAC/R
Gibson: 13 catches, 135 yards, 10.4 YAC/R
Totals: 163 catches, 830 yards, 5.09 YAC/R
That just doesn't get much done, when you're biggest YAC guys are lumbering tight ends who happen to randomly get wide open and can rumble for 10-15 yards, and your RB's who should have high numbers with the screen game (but still not very good in comparison to other #1's around the league from James Cook to Kamara to Bijan to Connor, etc).
This isn't about Drake not being able to put the ball in spots like Josh Allen, it's about having space to work with once you do catch a ball, and the lack of separation from the Pats receivers (at basically every position) is glaringly obvious. Ja'marr Chase by himself has 451 yards YAC this season, more than double every receiver/tight end/running back with double digit catches on the Pats combined. Guys in the top 10 of YAC this year, Chase, Shakir, Kamara, Bijan, Rachaad White, Achane, Godwin, Flowers, Breece Hall, Bowers...
Limiting it to wide receivers, Pop's 5.3 YAC/R places him 39th among wide receivers. Boutte, who has the 2nd highest YAC among WR's on the team, is 139th in the NFL.
That's just so, so little production it's almost impossible to put up big numbers in the passing game. I mean, you would think at some point, a defender would fall down and these numbers would go up, but we can't even get that from our receivers.
I like the "thanks for the dough, Mr. Kraft, but I gotta go be with my teammates" attitude before the game.
And how tight and thogether they looked when they clocked it at the end of Q2
I strongly suspect the YAC figures will improve as Maye gets more and more starts. Jacoby could not throw the ball down the field and teams stacked the box against him, while Maye has only had a few starts so far. Once Maye gets more playing time I think the YAC figures will go up, not because the WRs are great but because Maye (unlike Jacoby and definitely unlike Mac) can throw the ball into a spot which allows the WRS to run afterwards.
I think the bigger issue is that the receivers don't get enough separation. It's hard to gain YAC when the QB is throwing into a thimble with a DB draped all over you. It's not the down field throws that generate big YAC. It's the crossers and slants where you can catch it on the move and make someone miss. His first TD to Boutte, for example, was a deep ball, but resulted in no YAC (obviously not a knock on either him or Boutte for that play), it's that there is next to nothing over the middle of the field. Almost all of their YAC basically comes on dumpoffs, or on third and long when the defense is willing to give up yards, but not first downs. There's just no playmaking from anyone but Drake, at the moment.
There's something wrong with that team. The Commanders lost may have broke them.
Seems like the players don't want to be there and none of them respect the coaching staff
Also on YAC, I can recall at least two throws that were just enough behind the receiver/not in stride so that they were complete but really depressed the YAC.
Lots of signs this team is building its own versions of of some beloved traditions that carried previous teams. “How do we feeeel… “ Jerod Mayo doing the video breakdowns. Lots of positive reinforcement from Drake of his teammates. And Kraft amongst it all.
Reassuring and exciting to see. Now if Drake could just learn how to slide…
Can't really split out Maye vs. Brissett but NextGen does have an expected YAC category which takes into account things like how fast the receiver is going, how much separation they have, where the nearest defenders are, etc. I'm not sure if ball placement is included but that is obviously out of the WR control and has a direct impact on YAC.
Here's the Patriots receivers (minimum of 10 receptions so Bourne and Thornton data isn't in the table):
Hooper: 6.3 YAC/R vs. 4.2 expected - +2.1
Pop: 5.8 vs. 5.7 expected - +0.1
Henry: 4.8 vs. 5.5 expected - -0.7
Boutte: 1.7 vs. 2.3 expected - -0.6
Polk: 0.3 vs. 1.4 expected -1.1
The only pass catchers getting more YAC than expected are Hooper and Pop and Pop is just barely in the positive. Everyone else is losing expected YAC. Polk is worst in the league at -1.1, but probably should be noted his sample size is 9 catches.
Here's the Patriots receivers (minimum of 10 receptions so Bourne and Thornton data isn't in the table):
Hooper: 6.3 YAC/R vs. 4.2 expected - +2.1
Pop: 5.8 vs. 5.7 expected - +0.1
Henry: 4.8 vs. 5.5 expected - -0.7
Boutte: 1.7 vs. 2.3 expected - -0.6
Polk: 0.3 vs. 1.4 expected -1.1
The only pass catchers getting more YAC than expected are Hooper and Pop and Pop is just barely in the positive. Everyone else is losing expected YAC. Polk is worst in the league at -1.1, but probably should be noted his sample size is 9 catches.
Well, only Thornton and Pop have made a catch and broken a tackle this season (i believe both on quick pops/bubble screens), so this mostly tracks (they are tied for the lead at 1 each on the team). To be fair, wide receivers don't break a ton of tackles, but when you look at the league's best YAC guys, that's where the numbers can come from, because if you break a tackle in the secondary, it's off to the races. The current NFL leader is Lamb at 7, followed by Chase, Mooney and Shakir at 6. Lamb/Chase/Shakir are 3 of the top 5 leaders in total YAC at WR.
This is last year's top 15 in total YAC and where they were in broken tackles:
Lamb (4th)
St. Brown (5th)
Tyreek (2nd)
Rice (32nd)
Nacua (11th)
N. Collins (1st)
Chase (13th)
Moore (8th)
Deebo (2nd)
Pittman (32nd)
AJ Brown (8th)
Waddle (11th)
Diggs (5th)
Allen (16th)
Pickens (16th)
Some of these are obviously ties.
WR's, actual good ones, can catch balls that aren't perfect, they can still get YAC even if the throw isn't leading them into wide open space, and OMG, they can even break a few tackles along the way. Last season, the Patriots wide receivers had a grand total of 4 broken tackles (which puts this year's team on the exact same pace). Every guy on that list above had at least 5 broken tackles (except Pittman and Rashee Rice), with Nico Collins leading at 16 by himself. Folks want to know why CJ Stroud is crashing back to Earth? It's because Nico Collins isn't out there gobbling up balls, breaking tackles and turning 10 yard gains into 25+ yard house calls.
Modeling YAC sounds very fraught. I wouldn’t put much stock in individual differences between expected and actual, it could be noise esp since our receivers have so few catches (sad!)
This is about as substantial an upgrade as you can get with an offense this bereft of talent. And it's not like Brissett is a horrible QB, he's been an adequate starter in this league before.
He's also faced 3 good defenses. Chicago has the #1 passing defense by EPA/dropback and Tennessee and Houston are both top 10.
Hard to not be extremely encouraged.
Hard to not be extremely encouraged.
Yeah this is amazing. I wonder if (I'm sure there is) a way to calculate a player's expected points above replacement. Football is way harder than baseball to quantify - way more moving parts, etc.
But just based on this, with all other things being roughly equal, Maye has improved the Pats' offense by nearly 6 points a game.
Just looking at the games in which Brissett and/or Maye played the vast majority of the game, team per game averages:
Brissett - Cin (#23), Sea (#25), @NYJ (#7), SF (#9), Mia (#10), vs NYJ (#7) - avg D rank: 13.5
- points: 14.5 (this is with Maye contributing 7 points and a TD to the Jets game, which I'm still counting for Brissett)
- yards: 250.3
- 1st downs: 15.5
- turnovers: 0.7
Maye - Hou (#6), Jax (#32), Ten (#1), Chi (#13) - avg D rank: 13.0
- points: 18.3 (+3.8)
- yards: 302.3 (+52.0)
- 1st downs: 17.5 (+2.0)
- turnovers: 2.0
I know all about expected points. Wasn't sure how that worked for individual players.
EDIT: I don't know *ALL* about expected points. Bad phrasing on my part. I'm familiar with it is what I mean.
That stat is a bit misleading.
Pop Douglas is averaging 5.3 YAC/R, which yes, puts him in the top 15 among WR's with at least 50 targets. But let's extrapolate.
Pop is averaging 9.1 yards per catch. He is, on average, catching the ball within 3.8 yards of the LOS, which means they are expecting him to turn very short passes into big gains once in a while. He's not getting downfield before catching the ball and by downfield (i mean, not even like 5-7 yards downfield). Pop has 356 yards on 39 catches this season.
Now, let's look around a bit:
Jameson Williams in Detroit has 20 catches for 414 yards. His average reception occurs 11.1 yards passed the LOS. He is then adding another 9.7 YAC/R after he catches the ball 11 yards down field, and thus, he has more receiving yards, on way less targets, and half as many receptions and doesn't appear in this equation even though has 414 receiving yards to Pop's 356.
Another guy on that same Detroit team, Khalif Raymond, who like Pop catches the ball near the LOS (3.6 to Pop's 3.8) gets 8.8 YAC/R to Pop's 5.3. But again, not enough targets to qualify.
Keon Coleman, a rookie from Buffalo, average catch is 10.3 Yards downfield (also known as YBC/R), but he tacks on another 8.6 YAC/R resulting in 417 yards on 22 catches, but not enough targets to qualify.
Same team, Khalil Shakir, who they use much how we use Pop, catches balls mostly around the LOS (average is 2.5 YBC/R), but he turns that into 8.5 YAC/R resulting in 48 catches for 529 yards.
Deebo doesn't have enough targets to qualify, but he catches his passes an average of 7.9 yards downfield, and then tacks on another 8.3 YAC/R, resulting in 29 catches for 468 yards.
There are a whole bunch of other guys absolutely dominating YAC compared to Pop who are left out of this list because they don't meet the arbitrary 50 target thresshold, like Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Quentin Johnston, Jayden Reed, Nico Collins, AJ Brown, etc.
The biggest problem is that Pop is literally being asked to get YAC, but it's not really happening. (which may be a function of a lot of stuff, I like Pop as a #3 receiver personally) He's catching the ball near the LOS. If he can't break tackles or get YAC, it's basically just a running play, and not a great one either.
This is a great post and analysis. Asking out of ignorance, but does the Pats absolute lack of a downfield threat allow opposing defenses to play much closer to the LOS and make YAC in that zone more difficult? I'm having a hard time remembering many catches Pop has made where he's had lots of room to run or only had to make 1 guy miss. In other words
It’s not even a downfield threat that’s needed - it’s just someone with the talent to not be covered in single coverage on a consistent basis. Someone who has the gravity to pull coverage towards them. But just someone who is a matchup problem that gives Pop more room to operate in underneath. Welker was Welker because he had Moss attracting a safety and CB every play. Edelman was Edelman because Gronk pulled a safety and LB every play. I’m not saying they had no talent on their own, but the reason they had the numbers they did was because there was someone better than them occupying the defense in some way. This is why you need a true #1, in whatever format that comes in. It makes every receiver better because it shifts the gravity of the coverage in their favor.
His ceiling at this point is a top 3 QB in the league IMO. Tons of factors on why he may never get there but he’s got all the tools and he’s got the mental part of it.
If he had even average protection he would carve defenses up. He's legit
I think I’m more excited about Maye than I was about Bledsoe at the end of ‘93.
This
Guess What shirt goes to the top of the wishlist
The INT was in a hurry up offense where the receiver didn’t even look for the ball. It should have been farther in front of him, regardless though. The fumble was the result of horrible blocking. By that I mean “a blocking like substance” since it was laughably bad.
Get this man some competent linemen and one or two B- or above WR’s and this team takes off. We definitely have a QB again.
This might be the same thing, but his ceiling is Canton. He has that kind of talent and disposition. If he stays healthy and there is competence around him, he should be a perennial Pro Bowler or better within 3-5 years.
I believe we’re on the same page. I wouldn’t trade him for any of the other rookie QBs or really any drafted in the last 4 years except for Stroud. Then you’re back to the Burrow draft at that point. Even Stroud would be a debate in my mind
McVay on Maye -
‘"You look at it, and you can really see his ability to create off schedule," Sean McVay said. "I thought he did a great job of being able to make plays in the pocket today, extend drives. I thought he was patient, taking some underneath check-downs where guys were able to create. We had tighter coverages, and he was able to fit the ball into tight windows. He looks like a stud. I didn't do too much work on him coming out. I do know a lot of people that studied him really hard that I truly respect their opinions loved what he was all about. You can see just the impact that he has on his teammates, the way people talk about him here. He looks like he's going to be a special player for a long time, and he gave us fits today."
‘"You look at it, and you can really see his ability to create off schedule," Sean McVay said. "I thought he did a great job of being able to make plays in the pocket today, extend drives. I thought he was patient, taking some underneath check-downs where guys were able to create. We had tighter coverages, and he was able to fit the ball into tight windows. He looks like a stud. I didn't do too much work on him coming out. I do know a lot of people that studied him really hard that I truly respect their opinions loved what he was all about. You can see just the impact that he has on his teammates, the way people talk about him here. He looks like he's going to be a special player for a long time, and he gave us fits today."
Yup, he’s good enough right now where if he had even a slightly below average OK and a slightly above average receiving corps he’d be killing defenses.
Obviously Ds will start to build a book on him and he’ll need to grow and improve as that happens. But really couldn’t ask for anything more in his first few games. Guy could be very special.
Obviously Ds will start to build a book on him and he’ll need to grow and improve as that happens. But really couldn’t ask for anything more in his first few games. Guy could be very special.
+1
Until the game ending interception (which is just as likely to be on Douglas as it is on Maye), he played what I thought was a nearly flawless game. Not for a 22 year old rookie in his 6th career start, for any QB in the league. Miles to go before he gets there, but you can see he has best in the league ceiling in a way that few do. He's doing this with a bottom 5 OL and a bottom 5 skill group, learning on the fly with a coaching staff that is, to be charitable, not making things easier.
Yeah, it's possible the INT was his fault, but miscommunication INTs happen. At least it's not the type he threw last week. I know he's gonna throw some picks, but when he drops back to pass, I feel calm.