So the lack of a game winning drive is a reflection on the coaching staff, not on the player. Just confirming...
Maye-day Every Day
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
The 2001 Pats defense in the regular season only allowed more than 17 points in 5 games as well. I’m sure Maye would take that defense too.
The 2001 WRs were trash though outside of Troy Brown though. I’m not sure Maye would want that group.
FWIW, Maye's INT rates in college were 1.4% and 2.1% on 517 and 425 attempts. I've seen a few references to this being a problem he had in college, but the data doesn't support that.
Let's be a little more clear here. There is NO history of bad interceptions in college, unless we're now saying all interceptions result in "history of bad interceptions." The guy threw a total of 16 interceptions in college on 952 pass attempts. He also ran the ball 302 times, so if we assume that 200 of those were not designed runs and instead drop backs, he threw 16 interceptions on 1,152 dropbacks, which works out to 1 interception every 72 dropbacks.
Patrick Mahomes, for his career, is at 1 interception for every 59.31 dropbacks (and I credited him for every rushing attempt, while removing 100 rushing attempts from Maye's numbers).
Once again, I think we're starting to get into the realm of "everything that isn't perfect is bad." Every QB is going to throw interceptions, every QB is going to make bad throws. There is no history of anything with Drake Maye yet, there are no bad habits formed yet....It's all noise at this point. People should be watching Maye at this stage in his development using eye tests and scouting, and not so much results oriented.
The 2001 Pats defense/special teams also scored 10 touchdowns and caused 42 turnovers in the 19 games, including the playoffs.
Yeah I don’t see how Brown, Patten, Wiggins, Rutledge and Charles Johnson are better than Bourne, Douglas, Henry and Hooper.
Maybe the 2001 had a slight edge at WR but 2024 has a huge edge at TE.
Then again, different era, different offensive expectations.
You are vastly underselling Brown. He was amazing and a Wr1 in 2001
I apparently only want to post about the good old days, in the rookies thread.
Brady’s interception rates did not become great until his 5th season, 2007. Before that they were 2.9%, 2.3%, 2.3%, 3.0%. Not bad at all, but much worse than what they became later, starting in 2007.
To emphasize, they’re the worst in the league. There are a few teams with offensive lines that are as bad, and a few with receivers that are as bad but both they’re all by themselves when you evaluate the units together.
I can’t decide if it’s funny or concerning that they made basically 0 improvements to an offense that was horrible last year. I guess funny? It’s true that there weren’t many good options available to them and the ones that were elected not to come.
Most of Brady’s early years, DBs were allowed to mug receivers. That made it much harder to find open guys, and interception rates were higher in general. Then the Colts initiated a rule change and passing exploded.
By the way, it just goes to show how incredible Peyton was in those days. His stats, relative to the rest of the league, were amazing.
Are the 2024 Pass Interference calls closer to 2003 or 2007? I think it’s closer to 2003. They are generally letting them play more where 2007+ if you breathed on a WR it was PI.
edit: I think the 2022-2024 PI calls are the most reasonable and fair they’ve ever been.
Yeah, I don’t think what was the significance of @slamminsammya ‘s point that at 226, this is noisy, was fully grasped overall. He’s a math guy, so he gets this stuff on another level; the thing is, comparing percentages at this level can be really misleading in terms of what magnitudes they appear to offer.
Maye has a 3.1% INT%. If he has one fewer INT, it would be 2.7%. I mean, yeah, you are what your record says you are, and hey, one more INT and he’d be at 3.5% and I guess it would be utter bedlam in here?
Percentages at this volume are deceiving because they are presented as tenths of a percent, but the smallest unit is actually four tenths of a percent, so small differences are distorted to be magnified; the reality is that each “tick on the scale” is 0.4%, so Maye is only one tick off average. Or two?
I get that there’s a lot riding on this kid, but we’re probably going to want to pace ourselves a bit.
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Whoa, whoa, whoa. Easy on my namesake CJ. He was my favorite for one reason only.
Vastly underselling him? He was a solid NFL. Calling him a #1 in 2001 is a massive stretch other than the literal “he was their top guy” definition of a #1. He certainly wasn’t a top WR considering the rest of the league
I don’t think there’s enough of a gap between Brown and Bourne to make up for the very large gap between the TE groups and you’ll note that I said cumulative ability
I have plenty of warm fuzzy nostalgic feelings for Troy Brown. But he was not a gamebreaker. He averaged 11.9 YPC, wasn’t a red zone threat (only a Td% of 5% which is surprisingly terrible) and wasn’t a guy who could take over a game or be a major impact guy.
Good player, very valuable player? Sure. Fan favorite? Absolutely. But an “amazing #1”? That’s nostalgia talking. He put up a ton of volume because the Pats had very little else to work with and Weis did a good job scheming him open. It was also, obviously, a totally different era of football
Would I take 2001 Troy Brown over anyone on the Pats roster? Yeah obviously. Would I take Henry, Hooper, Bourne and Douglas over Wiggins, Rutledge, Patten and Brown? Yeah probably.
Honestly I think the only major difference between (healthy) Bourne and Brown as a receiver is nostalgia bias. They’re pretty comparable in skill level, Douglas and Brown are probably pretty comparable as well (short range volume guys). Maybe Brown gets an edge but it’s not like we’re comparing Kenbrell Thompkins to Randy Moss or even David Givens to JaLynn Polk.
An interception today, and while the throw wasn't 100% perfect, it's really hard to blame him, since it was thrown where only Henry could get it.
Updated numbers:
172/256, 67.2%, 1696 yards, 11/8 TD/INT, 87.0 QB rtg, 38 carries, 345 yards, 1 TD
He's over 70% completion in last 3 games.
Stats pro-rated to 17 games:
4100 yards, 27 TD, 19 INT, 835 rushing yards--WITH VERY LITTLE HELP
Updated numbers:
172/256, 67.2%, 1696 yards, 11/8 TD/INT, 87.0 QB rtg, 38 carries, 345 yards, 1 TD
He's over 70% completion in last 3 games.
Stats pro-rated to 17 games:
4100 yards, 27 TD, 19 INT, 835 rushing yards--WITH VERY LITTLE HELP
I thought the throw was off target, and it would be fair to blame Maye for the incompletion. That it was picked off was a pure fluke.
This game should have been more of a coming out party for Maye. He really picked the Colts defense apart for most of the game, and made no major mistakes. Let down by the team and the coaching staff.
So having seen Maye play in nine games this season, taking everything about the player (not coaches, just the player) into account - age, contract status, performance, etc. - what other QB would BBTL be willing to trade Maye straight-up for right now?
This doesn't answer your question, but I think I'd rather trade Mayo for Andy Reid than Maye for Mahomes.
The obvious:
Mahomes
Jackson
Allen
Burrow
Herbert
The maybe? category
Love
Stroud
The YMMV with the other rookies
Williams
Daniels
Mahomes
Jackson
Allen
Burrow
Herbert
The maybe? category
Love
Stroud
The YMMV with the other rookies
Williams
Daniels
I love Maye but I think you'd be crazy to not trade him for Burrow.
67.7% completion, 3,337 yards, 30/5 TD/INT, 7.5 Y/A, 107.4 rating
He'd be running away with the MVP if his defense could stop a nose bleed. He's also been to 2 AFC title games and a Super Bowl. He's the only active QB to have won a playoff game against Mahomes (and did it in Arrowhead). The only concern is I guess he's been hurt twice but contract and all, I'd made that trade in a heartbeat.
Herbert I could buy an argument on but I think Herbert is kind of the best scenario outcome for Maye so I consider taking the finished product.
67.7% completion, 3,337 yards, 30/5 TD/INT, 7.5 Y/A, 107.4 rating
He'd be running away with the MVP if his defense could stop a nose bleed. He's also been to 2 AFC title games and a Super Bowl. He's the only active QB to have won a playoff game against Mahomes (and did it in Arrowhead). The only concern is I guess he's been hurt twice but contract and all, I'd made that trade in a heartbeat.
Herbert I could buy an argument on but I think Herbert is kind of the best scenario outcome for Maye so I consider taking the finished product.
Here's the problem with that... there is no proof of any long term ability to pick competitive teams. The ones that have probably shown it the longest for any amount of time is Ozzie Newsome and Bill Belichick.
I mean Pete Carrol and Schneider were the toast of the town for a stretch there, but now where has Seattle been?
The point is, the list is pretty small, right? We've gone from "We have absolutely no QB for the future" to having a guy that, all things considered, we'd only trade for a small handful of QBs.
That's one hell of an improvement, and one hell of a successful outcome for this season.
I don't understand why Herbert continues to find his way on these lists as if he's a top 5 QB.
He's not folks. Dude has never had a QB rating higher than 98.3 (career is at 96.0, so he's remarkably, umm, above average?) Maye's comp% (67.2%) this season is higher than Herbert's this season (63.4%) and for Herbert's career (66.2%). Herbert is now in his 5th season, and while he has all the tools in the world, if this is his finished product, and that's the best we can hope for from Maye, we are truly fucked for the future. Fuck, Herbert has started as many playoff games as Mac Jones. Good news is that instead of throwing ints this season, Herbert has decided to take sacks at an alarming rate instead.
If I'm ranking NFL QB's right now based on their actual on field success and results, I'd be hard pressed to have Herbert in my top 10, maybe even lower than that.
For a guy who screams about weapons for QBs (rightfully, mind you) all the time, shouldn't Herbert get cut some slack for pretty much only having an old Keenan Allen as his best receiver the last two seasons?
A 96 rating is still top 8-14 most years. Top half of the league. Herbert historically hasn't thrown picks and he's not a check down merchant. This year he's been sacked more but we'll see if that's an outlier or something new, the rest of his career he's been at about 5% sack rate which is pretty good. He hasn't had the greatest of infrastructures around him, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams spent a lot of time on the IR and this year he's throwing to Quentin Johnson and Ladd McConkey.. Herbert has also dealt with two bad head coaches, Lynn and Staley who botched too many games to count. A lot of the team results is on Staley and Lynn more than Herbert.
I said it was debatable between Maye and Herbert, don't think it's outgragous to think Herbert is a best case outcome for Maye. It's a player you can win a Super Bowl with in my opinion.
Burrow is great, but his current season is also a huge case of Drew Brees-itis. Great QB with good weapons playing catch up all game to make up for a terrible defense, often against teams protecting a 2+ score lead.
This is Herbert's 5th season, not his 1st or 2nd.
Drake Maye's best receiver on the Patriots, was Justin Herbert's 4th best receiver in Herbert's rookie season (if you consider Ekeler and Mike Williams as better receivers than Hunter Henry, which I do). Then Henry left, and they brought in Cook to replace him, and still had Williams and Allen (both had over 1,100 yards) and Ekeler.
Last year in San Diego, Allen had 106 catches for 1,243 yards and 7tds in only 13 games. Dude was literally on a 17 game pace last season of 141 catches, 1,625 yards and 9tds.
So yeah, I'm comfortable saying if Drake Maye had that "old Keenan Allen" around, he'd be even better than Herbert was last season with his 93.2 and 65.1 comp%.
Shit, Allen's been working back from injuries early this season (missed weeks 2 and 3) and has now put up 14/159/3tds in the last two weeks. 32 year old Keenan Allen would be the best wide receiver to ever catch a ball from Drake Maye in college or the pros.
Exactly, 8-14 places him "above average." But before he wins a Super Bowl, let's see if he can win a playoff game.
I'm not discounting Herbert hasn't been in the best organization, but 5 years is a lifetime for a QB with his skill set, and he's had some decent teams around him. People around here get in a tizzy and think Drake Maye is forming bad habits when he throws a pick late in a game on a team going nowhere, in his 4th or 5th start. Folks would be apoplectic if in year 5, Drake Maye was putting up Herbert numbers and sitting with a career 38-36 record and 0-1 in the playoffs.
Hunter fucking Henry is Drake Maye's best receiver. Let that sink in again folks when we start shitting on guys like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler and umm, Hunter Henry himself.
Herbert was extremely injured last year, which impacted his performance quite a bit.
Sure but when Herbert arguably had his best cast around him he also put up his best season (96 rating). As a rookie, he also had half the INT % than Drake does, a higher TD %, more Y/A and AY/A than Drake does. Drake is also well under his pace for TDs. So while Drake would certainly be putting up better stats with a better supporting cast, Herbert did too. Also, like johnmd20 mentioned, Herbert was hurt last year and also had a high ankle sprain this year.
You defended Mac to the death last year, you lose all credibility evaluating QBs
This isn't a comparison between Drake Maye and Justin Herbert, unless folks really would consider trading a 21 year old Drake Maye under a cost controlled contract for 5 years, for almost 27 year old Justin Herbert who will run you 5yrs/262million through 2029.
He's in his 5th season, so frankly, I don't care that he was hurt that one time last year (one of the things you can't knock Herbert for is his durability, which is why his counting stats and things like weighted AV are higher than Burrow who came out with him in the same class). He put up the exact same rating last year as he did the year before, when he wasn't hurt. I know he's folks binkie for some reason, but the guy is just an above average QB at this point in his career. I don't know why there's so much pushback on this.
Herbert's best season wasn't a 96. It was a 98.3 in his rookie season. He joined a team whose only real offensive problem was their previous quarterback (Philip Rivers was throwing picks at the same time he was throwing touchdowns by then), and he joined a team with not one, but two, 1,000 yard receivers the prior year in Williams and Allen, a 3rd in Ekeler who finished with 993 yards on 92 catches, the best receiver the Patriots have right now in Hunter Henry, along with a defense that ranked 6th in yards given up and 14th in points given up. He had a great rookie year, won rookie of the year, and has never come close to matching that, despite having a lot of the same weapons for years.
Drake Maye has come into an exponentially worse situation than Herbert did when it comes to weapons, offensive line, weather, a stable, albeit mediocre coaching staff and a better defense. And he's doing almost as well as Herbert has done if you eliminate Herbert's rookie year. Shit, even in Herbert's rookie year, he started 2-9 thru 11 games, culminating in a 45-0 loss to the Cam Newton led Pats here in Foxboro almost 4 years ago to the day today. Then he went on a 4 game winning streak to finish the season 6-9 (he beat the 4-12 Falcons, the 8-8 Raiders after Carr got knocked out of the game in the 1st, the 5-11 Broncos and the Chiefs who rested all of their starters to get ready for the playoffs). In those games, Herbert had a QB rating of 111.4 combined, and locked up the rookie of the year award.
If Drake Maye walked into that situation in San Diego that Herbert did, I'm confident in saying he'd have won a playoff game in his first 4 years. Obviously, we'll never know, but if he manages to win one here in New England in the next 4 years, I don't care how big Herbert's arm is, Maye will have had a more successful rookie contract because of the lengths in which he'd have to drag this roster along.
Again, what I've said all along about Mac was that it was impossible to judge him because he was surrounded by shit. I never thought he could be anything better than an average quarterback, I just thought that there was no chance that he, or anyone else including Tom Brady, could have even reached average with the crap on this roster.You defended Mac to the death last year, you lose all credibility evaluating QBs
Now that we have Drake Maye (who I was pining for on this board a year before the 2024 draft), it's nice to see some folks finally come along for that ride and realize just how fucking shitty our receivers are and have always been. Tom Brady sure as hell realized it when he left here, but nobody listened.
Did you ask about Myles Bryant?You defended Mac to the death last year, you lose all credibility evaluating QBs
Fuck Myles Bryant. I hope he's an injury replacement in a playoff game for Houston and his ass gets burned for a game winning touchdown.
Agreed, He had prime Keenan Allen, Mike Williams (who was actually good), Hunter Henry and Austin Eckler. Pretty sure Maye would be a top 10 QB in the league with that skill position group.
My point was merely that you say he's just an above average QB and I countered that he's lost weapons over the span of his career (including adding a receiver who literally drops everything) and has been injured the last 2. This may be his level, but it might not. Just found it funny coming from a guy who cuts guys a lot of slack for not having weapons. Given what I've seen this year from Maye I'd take him over Herbert every time, but after his rookie year Herbert looked like a potential superstar.
There's recognizing that a QB doesn't have the talent around him and then there's recognizing that a QB doesn't have the basic skills to execute an offense. It was clear with Mac that both were true, so continuing to illustrate the former isn't proving anything beyond he's a shitty QB running a shitty offense.
With Maye, folks are willing to come along on that ride because it's very clear he has the skills and in some cases he's overcoming the dearth of talent. Something Mac never displayed.
How does this make sense?
Mac was surrounded by shit, so its impossible to judge him.
Maye is surrounded by almost the same shit, but he's better than Just Herbert.
Maybe we could, in fact, accurately judge Mac. If he was good enough, he would have shown something.
If you say so...
Maybe if Drake gets it rolling, he can match Mac's rookie year numbers. Somehow, Mac outperformed Drake this season against their common opponent, Houston.
Obviously, I'm just trolling a bit, but the reality is Mac had a pretty darn good rookie year. Then the roster got progressively worse year after year from there. The Pats organization did nothing right when it came to developing a young quarterback. Our feelings on his talent level are besides that point. Anyone blaming all of the Patriots woes on Mac Jones (and there's more than a few around here) are starting, maybe a little bit, to realize it wasn't just Mac Jones. Nobody was winning shit with last year's roster. Nobody. Nobody was winning shit with this year's roster. It's the folks that wanted to place all the blame at the feet of one guy while ignoring the reality of what was going on all over the field that drove me insane.
But hey, if they don't improve the roster around Drake Maye over the next 2 years, and the results look like, umm, Mac Jones, maybe we can just blame Drake for everything and try again.
It probably doesn't make sense because I didn't say Maye was better than Justin Herbert.
But of course, most folks around here read what they think is written, and not what's actually written.
So let me boiler plate it for you:
The conversation began with "Which QB's would you trade Drake Maye for right now?" The original poster had Justin Herbert on the top tier with Mahomes/Jackson/Burrow, etc.
I said I don't understand why Herbert continually gets put into these top 5 lists. He's not a fucking top 5 QB, never has been. He also is on a 5 year/250+million deal through 2029, while our QB is cost controlled for five years.
Then someone tried to defend Herbert, I gave my opinion of Herbert. I also said I believe if Drake Maye walked into the situation in San Diego that Herbert walked into, he'd have had better results. Maybe you can construe that as me saying Maye is better than Herbert. I'm not sure how, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, but I also said "we'll never know" which means it's clearly an opinion, which I think I'm entitled to have. I'm not trying to sway anyone that Maye is better than Herbert, i'm just trying to get to the bottom of why folks think Herbert is a top 5 QB and someone worth trading Drake Maye for when he's had 4+ years of better rosters than what New England has now, and done, well, nothing with it, and he's going to cost a fortune to Drake Maye's pennies.
That's it. The end.
I know, I know, all rookie QB's go 8-3 in their last 11 games and get their teams into the playoffs. Happens all the time, in fact.
I get it, people love to shit all over him. It's fun.
But here we are, with an actual good quarterback, and well, we're 3-10. Still all Mac's fault though, right?