Miami Heat: Pat Riley's Grease Fire

CaptainLaddie

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Since the other thread was locked, and the Heat are pretty much the #1 franchise in the NBA (even if they don't win the title this year), they deserve their own thread just like the Lakers.
 
Dwyane Wade is a dick.  Go from there.
 

simplyeric

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Apart from being a dick, is Wade suffering from a temporary injury that he'll recover from for next season? Or is he starting to actually break down or suffering from a chronic/recurring thing?

(side note: the 3rd Google auto suggest when searching "dwa" is 'dwarf fortress'. Wtf?)
 

CaptainLaddie

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Dwarf Fortress is a very popular game.  I have no idea how to play it.
 
As for Wade, its hard to say.  This might be his new normal (a 16-20 ppg guy).  He's never been able to shoot, relying on his insane athleticism, but if that starts to go, it could get ugly, fast.  There's no way Wade doesn't pick up his player option after next season -- which might open up the Heat to amnestying him if he looks like this next year.
 

Judge Mental13

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Even if Wade is a 19ppg type of guy that's more or less what the Celtics have been getting from Paul Pierce for the past 5 years or so.  Wade's more than likely not going anywhere, but his days of top 10 scorer are probably gone for good.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Judge Mental13 said:
Even if Wade is a 19ppg type of guy that's more or less what the Celtics have been getting from Paul Pierce for the past 5 years or so.  Wade's more than likely not going anywhere, but his days of top 10 scorer are probably gone for good.
Eh, the problem is the luxury tax.  They're gonna owe a metric fuckton of money, since his player option is for 20M and 21.5M in 14/15 and 15/16.  If you're the Heat, do you really want to pay Wade 20M in 2014?  I'm not sure about that being a good idea.  If they still have Bosh / James / Wade + and the rest of their players still under contract in 14/15, and the cap is 60M, they'll owe 64M in luxury tax, and that's only accounting for 7 players.
 
Also, if James opts out and leaves, I'd almost guarantee they'd amnesty Wade.  Start fresh, etc.
 

Jimy Hendrix

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If Wade's reward for bringing that Heat team together is being the first guy pushed out, I will be delighted. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
 

Euclis20

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He's in the middle of a really lousy postseason, but I think Wade's death is being overstated quite a bit.  This is still a guy who averaged 21/5/5 and 2 steals in the regular season, while shooting 52% from the floor (first time over 50% in his career) and still getting to the line 6+ times per game.  His days as a borderline top 5 player are over, but he's still borderline top 10, and definitely top 20.  How many supporting stars are better than him?  Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, and...who?  Blake Griffin?  Deron Williams?  Add in the intangibles (multiple championships, national star, image as a tough player), and I don't see how Wade gets cut loose anytime soon, especially if the Heat still have LeBron.
 
There's a good chance he won't age well because as noted above, his shooting as never been that good (it really only improved this year because he got smarter, shooting <1 3pg for the first time since his sophomore season), and he's taken a beating in his career.  On the other hand, he has tremendous strength and footwork(like Pierce), which will serve him well in the coming years. 
 
He's easily my least favorite player on the Heat, but I'm seeing his demise as, sadly, mostly wishful thinking.  He was still an excellent player this year (7th in PER), and we saw some signs that he may actually transition well into the decline of his career.  We'll see.
 

wutang112878

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I an thinking of Antawn Jameson, Chris Bosh, Shaq (that's a stretch), and maybe D Wade.
 
I think there are non-Lebron reasons these guys just didnt look that great playing with him. 
  • Jamison was a small sample size, they got him at the deadline and they had one playoff run.  Plus, Jamison was about the same guy in Cleveland as he was in Washington, and he was 33 at the time
  • Shaq was toast by the time he got to Cleveland, efficiency numbers aside he was playing 23 minutes a game
  • Bosh is a function of Bosh and being the 3rd wheel.  Even in Toronto he was never really a 'give me the ball, I will take over' player.  Now cast him as the 3rd wheel behind Lebron and Wade and it should not be a surprise that offensively he wouldnt look like the same guy.  If he was really talented and really cared he would try to become a Noah and he would be so much more valuable to that team
  • Wade is an interesting one.  The regular season numbers say that he is about the same guy with Lebron as he was the previous 2 years.  But the playoff numbers tell a different story and Wade looks less efficient the last 2 years than he did the 2 years before Lebron got there.  Its difficult to gauge how much of that is Lebron trying or actually taking over, and how much of that is Wade being banged up but then again he is almost always banged up with something
 
Now its a very vague statistic, but his +/- is really phenomenal.  Even if he makes a supposed 'star' next to him a little worse, does it matter if he makes the rest of the guys around him much, much better?  Plus, there are just some instances where he has made teammates look so much better than they really are.  Sure he quit in the playoffs but those 09/10 Cavs had no business winning 61 games.  And the 06/07 team never should have been able to get to the Finals, and he willed them there.  I hate the guy, but I cant find a statistical reason to critique him here
 

Infield Infidel

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wutang112878 said:

  • Wade is an interesting one.  The regular season numbers say that he is about the same guy with Lebron as he was the previous 2 years.  But the playoff numbers tell a different story and Wade looks less efficient the last 2 years than he did the 2 years before Lebron got there.  Its difficult to gauge how much of that is Lebron trying or actually taking over, and how much of that is Wade being banged up but then again he is almost always banged up with something
 
I think you hit the nail on Wade. The nature of his game is that he's going to be banged up every post-season. He drives, cuts, and crashes the boards a lot. After about 27 years old, you're going to be banged up playing like this. Remember how  Iverson was perennially banged up in the playoffs? He's has to a) get into better shape in the off-season b) improve his shot or c) post up even more than he already does. Or a combination of these. 
 

wutang112878

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dhellers said:
So a chance to rag on Lebron, even though farfetched, is out of bounds?
 
I still wonder. It is just aging of other players ... are the stats telling the whole truth or do they miss important-game gaps...
 
What are important game gaps? 
 
Also, flip your question around.  Can you find a 'good' player, not named Wade or Bosh, who played better without Lebron than he played with him?  Wade and Bosh are tough to judge because there just arent enough shots to go around for all 3.
 
 
 
Infield Infidel said:
I think you hit the nail on Wade. The nature of his game is that he's going to be banged up every post-season. He drives, cuts, and crashes the boards a lot. After about 27 years old, you're going to be banged up playing like this. Remember how  Iverson was perennially banged up in the playoffs? He's has to a) get into better shape in the off-season b) improve his shot or c) post up even more than he already does. Or a combination of these. 
 
It just seems as though Wade has passed the 'is banged up' point and is now in 'isnt that durable' territory.  Its not that he misses games, its that his body fails him at the end of the season, just like Iverson which is a perfect example.  Iverson could never adjust because his entire game was predicated on being faster because he was so much smaller, and he had to drive to the hoop because he wasnt an amazing shooter. 
 
I like your improvement list, I would just reverse them in prioritize that way.  Wade certainly doesnt need more bulk, he doesnt seem winded often, but it might be interesting to see how he might hold up for a season if he had 10 less pounds on his frame.  Improving his shooting would help, but part of it is the nature of the shots he takes because he loves his step back or dribble pull up jumpers which are really the most difficult jumpers in the game.  Posting up could extend his career though.  He does have a good pump fake, and he could use that in the post a few times a game to draw a foul.  If he became a post presence then could draw double teams that way and open things up for his teammates without having to drive to the hoop as often as well. 
 

Infield Infidel

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By getting into better shape I mean he basically needs to do what Jordan did that off-season after he came back from baseball. He came back and looked like a different human being. He put on about 10 pounds of muscle, his legs were stronger, and that season he was basically unstoppable from both the high and low post. Wade needs to add those facets to his game, but instead he's usually just getting healthy in the summer. This year, no Olympics, he should really work on diversifying his game
 

jon abbey

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(previous four posts moved from the locked LeBron thread upon request)
 

dhellers

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I truely wonder (as opposed to idly speculate) if Lebron's episodic bouts of passivity stem from his desire to NOT be THE MAIN MAN all the time.
 
Durirg the 2010 disappearance against the Celtics that's what I thought -- his body language seem to be saying to his teamantes "if you guys can't help carry the load, I am not going to do it for you".
Which was something of a change from the prior years, where Lebron was more willing to be the MAN.
 
Now, this doesn't mean Lebron won't turn it on when it needs to be turned on (game 6 vs Celtics being the prime example). It does mean he doesn't want to be almost always doing it almost all himself in meaningful games.
 
And that could explain his passivity during games 1 to 3 -- if Wade and Bosh etc can't do it, he isn't going to either.
 
I actually think that overall this is a mature philosophical attitude -- basketball is a team sport, despite the importance of having great players.
 

Tony C

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Really the criticism piled on him after game through, but through game 1 and 2 his playing style had a sound strategy behind it. I think he played terrific games both times...they lost one of them that was tight as a pussy hair, and had a blow out win in the 2nd game. If I'm Lebron I'm thinking that rebounding, distributing and just taking shots that come to him is a good unselfish strategy that keeps his teammates involved. Say what you will about him, but he's no Kobe-type player who is only happy if he has his 30 points.
 
Then came game 3 in which he was fairly criticized for a bad game and a passive game, but the point totals in games 1 and 2 were melded into that criticism to make it sound like he had sucked all series. He had not.  I do think he learned he cdln't rely on his teammates -- especially on the road -- and he shifted his game in game 4, obviously, and it didn't hurt that Wade stepped up, too. But I don't think there was anything passive aggressive about his play in games 1-3. At all.
 

jon abbey

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Actually what I realized during yesterday's game was that some of his issues in the first few games in this series stem from Wade's health, in that he is obviously getting treatment/cortisone shots before every game (he admitted this earlier) and through the first three games, he was a non-factor in the second half of each game. So LeBron needs to let Wade do whatever he can in the first half, but the flow of a game doesn't always allow a player to just turn it on and turn the game around in the second half, even one as good as LeBron, when it's an opponent as good as the Spurs. That doesn't explain all of it, but definitely a chunk, I think.
 
Also Green and Leonard are playing out of their minds on both ends, plus the Spurs have the Heat's tendencies scouted incredibly well, specifically on fast breaks. They've done an incredible job anticipating where LeBron and Wade might go, that has to be scouting combined with superb execution.
 

Infield Infidel

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I honestly don't think Leonard is playing out of his mind. He's has all the tools to make a Harden-esque jump whenever Manu takes a backseat or retires. 
 
 
Tony C said:
Really the criticism piled on him after game through, but through game 1 and 2 his playing style had a sound strategy behind it. I think he played terrific games both times...they lost one of them that was tight as a pussy hair, and had a blow out win in the 2nd game. If I'm Lebron I'm thinking that rebounding, distributing and just taking shots that come to him is a good unselfish strategy that keeps his teammates involved. Say what you will about him, but he's no Kobe-type player who is only happy if he has his 30 points.
 
It's a bit strange that although the Jordan/Pippen comp is made often with LeBron/Wade, skills-wise, LeBron is a heck of a lot more like Pippen than Wade is, and Wade is more similar to Jordan than Lebron is. Wade is like Jordan x.75, and LeBron is like Pippen x1.5
 
LeBron does all the point-forward-y stuff Pippen did, like bringing the ball up and running the PnR, with the addition of a post-game, rebounding, and screening the PnR. Pippen's obviously the better defender but LeBron defends the 4 more than Pippen did. Their hallmark is versatility. They didn't have to score to take over games, but could if needed, but not always would. 
 
Wade is a big combo-guard like Jordan was, minus the high post jumper, constant defensive tenacity and plus hobbly-er knees. Jordan was better facilitating when his shot wasn't going, and defended way better. Wade is less multi-dimensional.
 
This team screams triangle with Bosh in the HoGrant spot. 
 
It's crazy thinking about defense because, as good as James and Wade are at defense, Jordan and Pippen were way better
 

Mugthis

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I agree that Jordan was much better than Wade (Wade could be elite, but he loses focus and is lazy at times, especially on transition D), but I'm not sure Pippen is better anymore than LeBron. At the very least, LeBron is more versatile than Pippen. LeBron can be put on a prime Rose and shut him down and also handle PF and in a pinch, a C.
 
Defensive stats are highly flawed, of course, but for whatever they are worth:
 
LeBron DRtg, by age vs. Pippen DRtg
 
19: 104 
20: 103
21: 104
22: 100 vs. 103
23: 104 vs. 105
24: 99 vs. 105
25: 102 vs. 102
26: 102 vs. 102
27: 97 vs. 104
28: 101 vs. 97
29: N/A vs. 98
30: N/A vs. 101
31: N/A vs. 191
32: N/A vs. 99
 
Career: 102 vs 102
 
Def WS:
 
19: 2.6
20: 4.6
21: 4.3
22: 5.7 vs. 2.3
23: 4.6 vs. 3.3
24: 6.5 vs. 4.3
25: 5.2 vs. 5.4
26: 5.3 vs. 5.5
27: 5.6* vs. 4.8
28: 4.7 vs. 6.0
29: N/A vs. 6.7
30: N/A vs. 5.3
31: N/A vs. 5.2
32: N/A vs. 3.0
 
*Pro-rated to full season
 
Career DWS per 82G: 5.1 vs 4.7
 
So, statistically, they are very similar with LeBron have a slight edge.
 
However, due to lack of validity in these statistics, it's not nearly enough to say definitively. 
 
LeBron is certainly the superior athlete. He's stronger, faster, bigger, and more lateral quickness and based on the "eye-test" seems to be playing defense as well as a wing player can. Pippen, of course, was one of the best perimeter defenders ever, so I'm not saying he's obviously worse than LeBron. 
 
Jordan's career DRtg was 103 with a career best of 100, which he hit in 95-96 and then 97-98. His best DWS season was 6.2 in 95-96 and he posted a 6.1 in 87-88. For his career, he posted 4.9 DWS per 82 games, less than LeBron but better than Pippen. Wade's best DRtg was a 99 in 11-12 and his second best was 102 the year prior. His most DWS in a season was 4.7 in 10-11. His career DRtg is 103, same as Jordan. His career DWS/82 is  4.3.
 
So...
 
Career DRtg
 
LeBron 102
Pippen 102
Jordan 103
Wade 103
 
Career DWS/82:
LeBron 5.1
Jordan: 4.9
Pippen 4.7
Wade 4.3
 

HomeRunBaker

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Infield Infidel said:
By getting into better shape I mean he basically needs to do what Jordan did that off-season after he came back from baseball. He came back and looked like a different human being. He put on about 10 pounds of muscle, his legs were stronger, and that season he was basically unstoppable from both the high and low post. Wade needs to add those facets to his game, but instead he's usually just getting healthy in the summer. This year, no Olympics, he should really work on diversifying his game
 
Wade isn't likely to be able to do any physical training on his basketball skills aside from rehabbing his knee.  There has already been some talking about microfracture surgery or at the very least a procedure to repair the issues he is having.  He's already had a couple 2-3 week stretches this year to rest his knee which doesn't appear to be the long-term answer. The guy is doing some amazing things on the basketball court playing at the level he has under the circumstances he is dealing with essentially playing on one leg in these playoffs. As far as Wade's trade value i'd imagine it is virtually nil for 90% of the teams with only a couple others willing to give up very little in return......he's probably on par with Paul Pierce in trade value so i don't see him going anywhere as he's more valuable in Miami than anything the Heat would receive in return.
 

GBrushTWood

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It's quite delicious to picture the scene of these Miami bandwagoners, fleeing from an "insurmountable" 5 point lead, then invoking their divine right to re-enter the premises by begging and pleading to be let back in.
 
It's almost glorious enough to make you forget about the outcome of that game...
 
Will Leitch has a nice article today taking the Miami fans to task: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/51105760/
 

Infield Infidel

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GBrushTWood said:
It's quite delicious to picture the scene of these Miami bandwagoners, fleeing from an "insurmountable" 5 point lead, then invoking their divine right to re-enter the premises by begging and pleading to be let back in.
 
It's almost glorious enough to make you forget about the outcome of that game...
 
Will Leitch has a nice article today taking the Miami fans to task: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/51105760/
 
That's a great write up. It's comical that they tried to get back in. It really is the story of the night, which just shows how bad those 2,000 fans are at, well, being fans
 
There is a big caveat in this section though
This is going to be what people talk about any time they talk about Miami sports, almost certainly forever. I'm trying to think of any other city this might have happened in. Fans are renowned for leaving games early in Los Angeles, say, but this would have never happened at a Lakers game. 
Traffic in Atlanta is certainly worse than it is in Miami, but there hasn't been an incident like this there either.
 
This wouldn't happen at a Lakers game because Lakers Finals games finish at the latest 9pm local time. And Atlanta's been to the Finals once, so there's little track record. 
 
I'm not defending Miami fans, they are fair-weather, and ill-prepared to do what is needed to be diehards. Just that Atlanta and Lakers fans probably aren't any better.
 
Just another reason to start games earlier. 
 

Turrable

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GBrushTWood said:
Will Leitch has a nice article today taking the Miami fans to task: http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/51105760/
 
Great article, absolutely nails my feelings about LeBron:
 
 
I wonder if this, at the core of it, is one of the main reasons LeBron James still gets no quarter from fans and the media. It's not just that he left Cleveland, a city with as passionate a fanbase as any in the country -- it's that he went to Miami. I've always wondered if people would have been as angry had he chosen New York, which was his third option. I bet they wouldn't have been. As much as people love to hate the Knicks, no one denies that Knicks fans are as devoted to their team as any fans in any sport; they were filling Madison Square Garden every
night even during the Isiah years. LeBron would have been choosing a team, and a city, that would have adored him. (This applies to one-time LeBron suitor Chicago as well.)

But he chose Miami, and by doing so, he seemed to be saying, "obviously, fans have nothing to do with this decision." Now, it's not any athlete's responsibility to choose where they play -- in those rare moments when they actually get to choose -- because of the team's fans; it's not like they would be interacting all that often anyway. But by choosing Miami, specifically, it signaled that was something he hadn't even considered, something that had never entered his mind.
 
I honestly feel cheated because we're witnessing the stuff of legends and it's completely wasted on these fair-weather assholes.
 

jon abbey

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Turrable said:
I honestly feel cheated because we're witnessing the stuff of legends and it's completely wasted on these fair-weather assholes.
 
Come on, seriously? The games are all on TV, the audience is worldwide. Miami fans suck, but I really don't see why anyone would care about that.
 

ElUno20

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Miami isn't the first successful team with bandwagon fans. You can still find Chicago Bulls gear in thrifts stores around the country
 

Turrable

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jon abbey said:
Come on, seriously? The games are all on TV, the audience is worldwide. Miami fans suck, but I really don't see why anyone would care about that.
 
Maybe I personally don't feel cheated, but it definitely ruins a good deal of the experience for me. Ideally I'd like to be watching these finals from a place of emotional detachment and just enjoy the drama/skill/competition/whatever, but I can't because I really just want nothing but bad things to happen to their fans. It's probably not rational but it's how I feel.
 

dhellers

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Turrable said:
Maybe I personally don't feel cheated, but it definitely ruins a good deal of the experience for me. Ideally I'd like to be watching these finals from a place of emotional detachment and just enjoy the drama/skill/competition/whatever, but I can't because I really just want nothing but bad things to happen to their fans. It's probably not rational but it's how I feel.
Join the club.
 
But just to play devil's advocate, I recollect the Henerson-steals-the-ball-game (game 2 1984), sitting in the topmost row. Right before the steal I looked down and saw a small stream leaving the arena. And when Henderson hit the shot, it was like a steel door had fallen down (people turning on the dime to go back to their seats).
 
That said, it was only a few people, so Miami fans still suck.
 

CaptainLaddie

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LeBron James is one fucking hell of a basketball player.  He's the best on the planet, and it's not close.
 
He was a stone-cold fucking killer tonight.
 
Edit: Wade's demise might be premature.  I dunno.  We'll see how next season goes for him.
 

jon abbey

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CaptainLaddie said:
LeBron James is one fucking hell of a basketball player.  He's the best on the planet, and it's not close.
 
He was a stone-cold fucking killer tonight.
 
Players who have won back to back MVPs and rings:
 
Russell
Jordan
LeBron
 

CaptainLaddie

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He's on ESPN right now and it's really hard not to like him.  He put up 37 & 12.  I think I've reverted to how I felt about him when he was in Cleveland, where I just can't help but root for him because he's just so good, even when I don't want his team to win.
 

jon abbey

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Ray Allen exercised his player option and will be back next year. 
 

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jon abbey said:
Ray Allen exercised his player option and will be back next year. 
They always say "don't shoot the messenger", but they don't say anything about vengeful beatings.
 

jon abbey

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Heat offseason moves: Mike Miller was amnestied, and today they signed the artist formerly known as Greg Oden. 
 

Infield Infidel

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He's not going to be 75% of what he was, and certainly not out of the shoot. They want to start him slowly, so that could mean he probably won't get more the 10MPG before new year's.
 
That said, his career PER is 19.5. Could he give them half that by the end of the season? That would be well worth the league minimum deal (but maybe not worth the addition luxtax fee, though).
 
He could also be injured and gone by then. It'll be at least interesting to see how this turns out
 

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I'm bothered by this because I've always liked Oden and it's going to be difficult (impossible) to want him to succeed now. I'm hoping Wade gets under his skin so much during a game Oden snaps and rips his limbs off mid-game in front of a shocked Miami crowd. 
 

swingin val

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This pleases me. Oden is toast so the Heat will just be distracted by all those "when's he coming back" questions for the next how many months. And there will be pressure to force him into the lineup when he is "healthy". Of course, he'll then get hurt again and the Heat will have to adjust.
Yea, I am sure Oden signing will distract the two time defending champions and they will be confused if/when he gets hurt
 

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Infield Infidel said:
He's not going to be 75% of what he was, and certainly not out of the shoot. They want to start him slowly, so that could mean he probably won't get more the 10MPG before new year's.
 
That said, his career PER is 19.5. Could he give them half that by the end of the season? That would be well worth the league minimum deal (but maybe not worth the addition luxtax fee, though).
 
He could also be injured and gone by then. It'll be at least interesting to see how this turns out
 
My definition of starting slowly means we don't even see him until the start of 2014 as he admittedly isn't yet ready to compete. Miami is a good fit in the sense that all that matters is he earns Birdman or Haslem's 10-14 mpg come late April and May whereas most other teams are looking for sustainable success over 82 games and into the playoffs. He doesn't have to be out there until (and that's a big if) he's physically ready.
 
I'm rooting for him.
 
 
Oden was a force at the beginning of his final season putting up 11/8.5/2.3 in 24 mpg prior to doing down. It truly is a shame to see a great talent like this dealt such a raw hand but such is life.
 

zenter

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Marbleheader said:
Do you just say stuff to get attention?
Of course not. His opinion was humble. He told us so... and he always does when he tells us his opinion (which is frequently).
 

Brickowski

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If Riley signed Oden for two years on a wing and a prayer, then the Heat front office has suddenly gotten dumber.  They must have worked him out, checked with doctors, etc.
They aren't the 76ers.
 

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Brickowski said:
If Riley signed Oden for two years on a wing and a prayer, then the Heat front office has suddenly gotten dumber.  They must have worked him out, checked with doctors, etc.
They aren't the 76ers.
 
Not necessarily. Riley isn't signing Oden with the hopes that he returns to his prior form......THAT would be signing him on a wing and a prayer.  This is no different than other Riley end-of-bench signings for depth at the 5 in prior years.  Let's not forget Eddy Curry was on the 2011-12 team for the entire season making the same as Oden will make this year. The year before it was the respective degenerative corpses of Ilgauskas and Magloire.
 
This roster construction strategy has been a staple in the #SuperFriends era in Miami.......you can criticize the strategy but it wouldn't be "suddenly" dumber since it's been in place since The Decision.  It's very low risk and if you're going to have depth at 13-15 why not make it a 7-footer who could matchup decent in a certain playoff series in short minutes.