Miami Heat: Pat Riley's Grease Fire

wade boggs chicken dinner

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DrewDawg said:
 
Broussard mentioned this today too. Granger would have to fit as well, taking up money that they would possibly turn towards Melo.
 
I believe that Granger could be signed using the new-found room midlevel exception of approximately $2.7M.  They also have a trade exception of approximately $2.2M that might be used if they could entice the Clippers.
 

zenter

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Ken Berger makes an interesting point for those of us who are interested in the real-world implications of the new CBA.  If Bosh indeed goes to HOU, then the Heat become a team with cap-room and apparently they lose the MLE and bi-annual exception, which means that to sign McRoberts, they would have to fit him in under the cap.
 
I would not like to be in Pat Riley's shoes right now.
 
DrewDawg said:
Broussard mentioned this today too. Granger would have to fit as well, taking up money that they would possibly turn towards Melo.
 
Yeah, the cap hold evaporates, pushing the Heat under the cap.
 
Can someone help me out with this CBA mechanics. Hunted around CBA FAQ and couldn't answer this specific question. I was under the impression that sequence matters to some extent (Q39).
 
Scenario A
 
1) Heat complete the signings of McRoberts and Granger July 10.
2) LeBron decides to go elsewhere July 10
 
Thus: The McRoberts and Granger deals need to be renegotiated, since they're simultaneous.
 
Scenario B
 
1) Heat complete the signings of McRoberts and Granger July 10.
2) LeBron decides to go elsewhere July 11.
 
Thus: ?
 
The McRoberts and Granger deals were signed under the circumstances of LeBron's cap hold. Shouldn't these deals be okay? 
 
Scenario C
 
1) Heat complete the signings of McRoberts and Granger July 10
2) LeBron decides to go elsewhere August 15.
 
Thus: ?
 
The McRoberts and Granger deals were signed under the circumstances of LeBron's cap hold and more than 30 days had passed. Shouldn't these deals definitely be okay?
 
Did the new CBA change how Q39's Michael Redd situation is handled?
 

bowiac

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Devizier said:
If Lebron stays because Riley signed Granger and McRoberts, I will lose a ton of respect for him.
LeBron's gonna stay just because it's the path of least resistance. He's been to 4 straight finals with the Heat. It's not like it's been a disaster for him there. They can offer him more money than anyone else, and as good a chance to win anywhere other than maybe the Bulls.
 

Clears Cleaver

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its not going to get better there, either, though. not sure how the Heat will improve next year or not be worse the year after or year after. they are lucky the East is abysmal (unless Melo signs with Chicago)
 

bowiac

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Clears Cleaver said:
its not going to get better there, either, though. not sure how the Heat will improve next year or not be worse the year after or year after. they are lucky the East is abysmal (unless Melo signs with Chicago)
Ways it could get better:
 
1. Wade has a bounceback year. I know everything thinks he's finished, but sometimes guys just have down years too. 
2. Wade has a bounceback playoffs! He wasn't terrible in the regular season. People are down on him mostly because of the playoffs.
3. Shabazz Napier turns into something.
4. Greg Oden turns into something. 
5. Josh McRoberts continues to develop.
6. Danny Granger bounces back.
 
Each of these is plausible outcomes that could result in the Heat improving. Alternatively, they might just win a title or three without even improving, if a worse team than the Spurs comes out of the West. Now none of those are super likely necessarily, but there's major risks to every other option as well (other than Chicago, which I think would be a juggernaut even if Rose doesn't come back). 
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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zenter said:
 
 
Yeah, the cap hold evaporates, pushing the Heat under the cap.
 
Can someone help me out with this CBA mechanics. Hunted around CBA FAQ and couldn't answer this specific question. I was under the impression that sequence matters to some extent (Q39).
 
Scenario A
 
1) Heat complete the signings of McRoberts and Granger July 10.
2) LeBron decides to go elsewhere July 10
 
Thus: The McRoberts and Granger deals need to be renegotiated, since they're simultaneous.
 
Scenario B
 
1) Heat complete the signings of McRoberts and Granger July 10.
2) LeBron decides to go elsewhere July 11.
 
Thus: ?
 
The McRoberts and Granger deals were signed under the circumstances of LeBron's cap hold. Shouldn't these deals be okay? 
 
Scenario C
 
1) Heat complete the signings of McRoberts and Granger July 10
2) LeBron decides to go elsewhere August 15.
 
Thus: ?
 
The McRoberts and Granger deals were signed under the circumstances of LeBron's cap hold and more than 30 days had passed. Shouldn't these deals definitely be okay?
 
Did the new CBA change how Q39's Michael Redd situation is handled?
 
Again, not an expert but I think what happens is that when McRoberts/Granger are signed, their salary counts against the cap but are available because of the exceptions if the Heat are over the cap (counting their salaries).  When (if) the Heat have cap room at any point - including McRoberts/Granger, for example if Bosh or James were to sign elsewhere - the exceptions disappear and the salaries just become regular salaries that count against the cap.
 
I got this from Coon's FAQ (#26):

 
For example, assume there is a $58 million salary cap, and during the offseason a team has $50 million committed to salaries, along with a Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception for $5 million, a trade exception for $2.5 million, and an unrenounced free agent whose free agent amount is $2 million. Their salaries and exceptions total $59.5 million, or $1.5 million over the cap. What if their free agent signs with another team? The $2 million free agent amount comes off their cap, so their team salary (including their remaining exceptions) drops to $57.5 million. This total is below the cap so the team loses its Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level and trade exceptions.
 
There is logic behind this. The whole idea behind an "exception" is that it is an exception to the rule which says a team cannot go over the salary cap. In other words, an exception is a mechanism which allows a team to function above the cap. If a team isn't over the cap, then the concept of an exception is moot. Therefore, if a team's team salary ever drops this far, its exceptions go away. A rule of thumb is that a team may have either exceptions or cap room, but it can't have both at the same time. However, a team in this situation does qualify to use the Room Mid-Level exception (see question number 25).
 
 

Auger34

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Bowiac,
Sure any of those 6 things could happen but none of them are especially likely. (Although I do think McBob will continue to improve). Don't think the Heat are an especially attractive option at this point. Seems like they have peaked and only way to go is down
 

wutang112878

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bowiac said:
LeBron's gonna stay just because it's the path of least resistance. He's been to 4 straight finals with the Heat. It's not like it's been a disaster for him there. They can offer him more money than anyone else, and as good a chance to win anywhere other than maybe the Bulls.
 
If you think of a 4 year window, he might have a better chance next year with the Heat but I really think Cleveland would give him a much better chance years 2 to 4
 

zenter

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Again, not an expert but I think what happens is that when McRoberts/Granger are signed, their salary counts against the cap but are available because of the exceptions if the Heat are over the cap (counting their salaries).  When (if) the Heat have cap room at any point - including McRoberts/Granger, for example if Bosh or James were to sign elsewhere - the exceptions disappear and the salaries just become regular salaries that count against the cap.
 
Right, but they still are Heat players, right? Losing LeBron is the endtimes for the Heat no matter what, but it's not like McRoberts and Granger contracts are retroactively erased, right? Just that they now go over cap.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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bowiac said:
LeBron's gonna stay just because it's the path of least resistance. He's been to 4 straight finals with the Heat. It's not like it's been a disaster for him there. They can offer him more money than anyone else, and as good a chance to win anywhere other than maybe the Bulls.
 
In some ways returning is the path of least resistance but I thought the whole point of LBJ opting-out was the make sure the roster was upgraded and Arison started to spend some money?  All Riley has accomplished was to marginally upgrade the roster (McRoberts is a way better fit on a team that doesn't already have Chris Bosh playing out by the 3-point line) and ensure that Arison doesn't have to pay any taxes this year. 
 
Kind of makes LBJ look a bit foolish, doesn't it?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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zenter said:
 
Right, but they still are Heat players, right? Losing LeBron is the endtimes for the Heat no matter what, but it's not like McRoberts and Granger contracts are retroactively erased, right? Just that they now go over cap.
 
Right, they are still Heat players.  If LBJ or Bosh leave, there's plenty of cap room for McRoberts/Granger, so those contracts are simply considered non-exception contracts and the Heat no longer have the MLE or bi-annual exceptions to use.
 

bowiac

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wutang112878 said:
If you think of a 4 year window, he might have a better chance next year with the Heat but I really think Cleveland would give him a much better chance years 2 to 4
Can you make the case for this? That's what I was getting at with saying Miami is as good a path as any - Cleveland seems laden with risks of its own. Kyrie Irving plays less defense than James Harden, can't stay healthy, and has mostly plateaued offensively. Varejao is a good center, but similarly can't stay on the court. Waiters and Bennett look very "busty" (though either is young enough to turn it around). Wiggins is a great prospect, but as noted, is very raw.
 
Other than getting Minnesota to trade Kevin Love for Waiters, Bennett, and Thompson, what does the Cleveland renaissance look like?
 
I like Bosh more than anyone Cleveland has to offer (by a decent amount), and that's assuming Kyrie stays healthy.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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bowiac said:
Can you make the case for this? That's what I was getting at with saying Miami is as good a path as any - Cleveland seems laden with risks of its own. Kyrie Irving plays less defense than James Harden, can't stay healthy, and has mostly plateaued offensively. Varejao is a good center, but similarly can't stay on the court. Waiters and Bennett look very "busty" (though either is young enough to turn it around). Wiggins is a great prospect, but as noted, is very raw.
 
Other than getting Minnesota to trade Kevin Love for Waiters, Bennett, and Thompson, what does the Cleveland renaissance look like?
 
I like Bosh more than anyone Cleveland has to offer (by a decent amount), and that's assuming Kyrie stays healthy.
 
I more or less agree with you, but one question: what's Deng's current status? Would Cleveland have to renounce his rights (or have they already?) to sign James? Because if they had the ability to re-sign Deng and were willing to pay the tax, they'd have a pretty devastating small ball lineup in Kyrie-Wiggins-Deng-James-Verajao, and it'd be one that, remarkably, didn't even really give up much on the defensive end.
 

wutang112878

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bowiac said:
Can you make the case for this? That's what I was getting at with saying Miami is as good a path as any - Cleveland seems laden with risks of its own. Kyrie Irving plays less defense than James Harden, can't stay healthy, and has mostly plateaued offensively. Varejao is a good center, but similarly can't stay on the court. Waiters and Bennett look very "busty" (though either is young enough to turn it around). Wiggins is a great prospect, but as noted, is very raw.
 
Other than getting Minnesota to trade Kevin Love for Waiters, Bennett, and Thompson, what does the Cleveland renaissance look like?
 
I like Bosh more than anyone Cleveland has to offer (by a decent amount), and that's assuming Kyrie stays healthy.
 
 
I posted this upthread, but this is my case:
  • In Kyrie I think they have an adequate scoring 2nd fiddle for Lebron and its probably a reasonable assumption that his scoring efficiency would improve if he wasnt the primary scoring option that opponents were determined to stop. 
  • They have a pretty good set of bigs in Varejao who is a decent banger and energy guy, Thompson who seems to be developing and could probably be a decent 3rd scoring option. 
  • Wiggins is immediately going to be an above average defensive player and will should have great versatility in who he is able to guard. 
  • Add Lebron and those are your starting 5 guys.  Based on their youth and projection you cant really upgrade Kyrie and Wiggins, so maybe you look for an upgrade at your 4/5 spot and trading either of your starters with a future 1st could probably get you a decent upgrade.  Then next offseason you go grab a guy for the MLE and should be able to get a great role player to come off the bench. 
Now next year that doesnt give him a better chance to win than Miami, but I'd say the 3 following years that Cleveland team would have a much, much better chance than the Miami team.  On Cleveland's health you bring up a good point, but is any of Lebrons options really perfect right now???
 
At a real high level macro view, I look at that Heat team and those 3 players are not getting better with Wade who is almost done and Bosh who will now be in his 30s.  The problem with Wades playoff performance is that this has become what happens every year and its because Wade is 'banged up' but that is just what he is and that trend is going to get worse.  Take a look at some key stats for him during the regular and postseason the last 3 years, this is pretty disturbing.  I bet he will rebound from the playoffs during the regular season next year but he wont be there for the playoffs and Lebron's goal is to win titles
 
Wade
Season  Age  RegSeas TS%  RegSeas eFG%  RegSeas DRtg  RegSeas WS  RegSeas WS/48 Playoffs TS%  Playoffs eFG%  Playoffs DRtg  Playoffs WS  Playoffs WS/48
2011-12  30 55.9% 50.6% 99 7.7 0.227 52.6% 47.4% 101 3.1 0.165
2012-13  31 57.1% 52.8% 103 9.6 0.192 49.8% 45.9% 103 1.8 0.108
2013-14  32 58.8% 55.1% 106 5.5 0.149 56.0% 51.6% 111 1.2 0.086
 
 
Is that strong enough of a case? 
 

Clears Cleaver

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Wall street trading desks passing around LeBron is going to Cleveland, but I warn it might be someone looking solely at the odds on the Cavs in Vegas going from 40-1 to 10-1 in two days.
 

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Clears Cleaver said:
Wall street trading desks passing around LeBron is going to Cleveland, but I warn it might be someone looking solely at the odds on the Cavs in Vegas going from 40-1 to 10-1 in two days.
 
I saw the movement on the Cavs line, but apparently its the result of fairly few bets, none of which laid a ton of cash.  FWIW, the Heat's odds remain unchanged at 3-1.  I'd love to short the Cavs at 10-1.
 

wutang112878

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Yeah, I read something like they have taken less than 40 bets on the Cavs and Wynn hasnt even opened the book up yet (they wait until free agency is over).  The change in the line is really a big over-reaction.
 

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DannyDarwinism said:
 
I saw the movement on the Cavs line, but apparently its the result of fairly few bets, none of which laid a ton of cash.  FWIW, the Heat's odds remain unchanged at 3-1.  I'd love to short the Cavs at 10-1.
 
Clears Cleaver said:
Wall street trading desks passing around LeBron is going to Cleveland, but I warn it might be someone looking solely at the odds on the Cavs in Vegas going from 40-1 to 10-1 in two days.
 
Just out of morbid curiosity (I am not a gambler), what is preventing LeBron (or a LeBron rep) dropping a ton of money on this particular bet. I mean, he is not betting on an NBA game, so if the trolls in Vegas want to try and take money on what is essentially {said} person's personal/career decision, what is stopping him? 
 

zenter

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HurstSoGood said:
Just out of morbid curiosity (I am not a gambler), what is preventing LeBron (or a LeBron rep) dropping a ton of money on this particular bet. I mean, he is not betting on an NBA game, so if the trolls in Vegas want to try and take money on what is essentially {said} person's personal/career decision, what is stopping him? 
 
I'd guess the CBA, NBA rules, and NBAPA rules. I'd expect no player is allowed to gamble period.
 

bowiac

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HurstSoGood said:
Just out of morbid curiosity (I am not a gambler), what is preventing LeBron (or a LeBron rep) dropping a ton of money on this particular bet. I mean, he is not betting on an NBA game, so if the trolls in Vegas want to try and take money on what is essentially {said} person's personal/career decision, what is stopping him? 
I haven't seen the CBA's anti-gambling provisions, but I can't fathom that they allow him to make futures bets.
 

bowiac

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wutang112878 said:
Is that strong enough of a case? 
I suppose - a lot of it depends on what you think of Irving I suppose.  I'd rather have Bosh's next 4 years than Kyrie's, even if health weren't a concern for him. That's both me being a bit down on Irving, and me thinking very highly of Bosh. Wiggins will be fine, and Varejao similarly, but Wade similarly projects to be fine, and Birdman is a really good player in limited minutes for them. It is kind of amazing they haven't been able to get LeBron more guys in the Birdman ilk - veterans who can give 10-20 very good minutes on cheap salaries. Danny Granger isn't what I'm talking about.
 
Grin&MartyBarret raises a very good point however:
 
Grin&MartyBarret said:
I more or less agree with you, but one question: what's Deng's current status? Would Cleveland have to renounce his rights (or have they already?) to sign James? Because if they had the ability to re-sign Deng and were willing to pay the tax, they'd have a pretty devastating small ball lineup in Kyrie-Wiggins-Deng-James-Verajao, and it'd be one that, remarkably, didn't even really give up much on the defensive end.
I don't know what's going with this, but if they can someone keep Deng, then all bets are off. That's a great lineup, I agree.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Ted Forstmann (former CEO of IMG) allegedly bet on Federer while he was a client, and on on NCAA basketball and football while IMG had coaches were clients.  I don't know if anything came of it.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Grin&MartyBarret said:
 
I more or less agree with you, but one question: what's Deng's current status? Would Cleveland have to renounce his rights (or have they already?) to sign James? Because if they had the ability to re-sign Deng and were willing to pay the tax, they'd have a pretty devastating small ball lineup in Kyrie-Wiggins-Deng-James-Verajao, and it'd be one that, remarkably, didn't even really give up much on the defensive end.
 
Deng has a $19+M cap hold.  From these numbers - http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/2014/06/no-its-not-that-difficult-for-the-cavs-to-have-max-contract-space/ - they would have to renounce Deng (plus add a couple of other moves) to give LBJ the max.
 

wutang112878

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bowiac said:
I suppose - a lot of it depends on what you think of Irving I suppose.  I'd rather have Bosh's next 4 years than Kyrie's, even if health weren't a concern for him. That's both me being a bit down on Irving, and me thinking very highly of Bosh. Wiggins will be fine, and Varejao similarly, but Wade similarly projects to be fine, and Birdman is a really good player in limited minutes for them. It is kind of amazing they haven't been able to get LeBron more guys in the Birdman ilk - veterans who can give 10-20 very good minutes on cheap salaries. Danny Granger isn't what I'm talking about.
 
Why are you down on Kyrie?  I think he is a young player who is trying to be 'the guy' on a very bad team.  I think he is a product of what he is being asked to do because he is a young point (and those take time), he was a little raw coming out and his usage is insane like 29%  He is a projection for sure,  but get him some more talent, make him the #2 guy and bring that usage down and unless he shoots like a moron his efficiency should improve pretty significantly.
 

RedOctober3829

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@ByTimReynolds: LeBron emerged from meeting at 1:42 p.m. local time, telling AP "no complaints. I have no complaints." And that was that.

ByTimReynolds: Can also tell you I currently see basically the entire LeBron brain trust here. Have not seen LeBron OR any member of Heat organization.
 

bowiac

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wutang112878 said:
Why are you down on Kyrie?  I think he is a young player who is trying to be 'the guy' on a very bad team.  I think he is a product of what he is being asked to do because he is a young point (and those take time), he was a little raw coming out and his usage is insane like 29%  He is a projection for sure,  but get him some more talent, make him the #2 guy and bring that usage down and unless he shoots like a moron his efficiency should improve pretty significantly.
Oh I don't doubt him offensively - he's a great talent, and I agree his offensive efficiency will go up a lot when he has talent around him.
 
The issue is that defense matters too, and while most PGs don't play much defense, people who watch the Cavs say he's the worst in the league. RAPM backs this up, rating him a below average overall player, because his defensive impact is so massive. This is also a pretty consistent effect in RAPM - his defensive negatives are pretty solid at between -2.5 and -3 points per 100 possessions defensively every year of his career.
 
That's basically James Harden on defense, without being as good as Harden offensively.
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
@ByTimReynolds: LeBron emerged from meeting at 1:42 p.m. local time, telling AP "no complaints. I have no complaints." And that was that.

ByTimReynolds: Can also tell you I currently see basically the entire LeBron brain trust here. Have not seen LeBron OR any member of Heat organization.
Now Broussard is saying there was no meeting today and it will take place tomorrow. Heh.
 

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bowiac said:
Oh I don't doubt him offensively - he's a great talent, and I agree his offensive efficiency will go up a lot when he has talent around him.
 
The issue is that defense matters too, and while most PGs don't play much defense, people who watch the Cavs say he's the worst in the league. RAPM backs this up, rating him a below average overall player, because his defensive impact is so massive. This is also a pretty consistent effect in RAPM - his defensive negatives are pretty solid at between -2.5 and -3 points per 100 possessions defensively every year of his career.
 
That's basically James Harden on defense, without being as good as Harden offensively.
 
Also he's pretty injury prone, missing 25 percent of CLE's games in his first three seasons, plus most of his only season at Duke. 
 

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bowiac said:
I haven't seen the CBA's anti-gambling provisions, but I can't fathom that they allow him to make futures bets.
Not to mention the max for futures betting is pretty limited. People think you can bet whatever you want on a game.....for example you'll have trouble finding a Vegas sports book to take more than $3k on a college basketball side and $1k on the total.
 

BostonFan23

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I've seen speculation (the key word) that the Nike meeting was re. #thereturn. I've gotta say...it would make some sense. That said, I think within 48 hours we'll be hearing that he, Wade, and Bosh are Heat again.
 

ALiveH

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not playing defense on a bad team (like irving) is pretty different than not playing defense on a team trying to contend (like harden).  at least with Irving, it might be effort-based and fixable if he was in a winning environment.
 

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BostonFan23 said:
I've seen speculation (the key word) that the Nike meeting was re. #thereturn. I've gotta say...it would make some sense. That said, I think within 48 hours we'll be hearing that he, Wade, and Bosh are Heat again.
 
 
Isn't Lebron headed to Brazil for the Cup final for Nike?  Maybe meeting was about that - or about him trying to get out of going after Germany kicked Brazil's ass today. 
 

BostonFan23

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
#thereturn seems more like Cleveland to me. I don't think he'll be pimping resigning in Miami.
No, I agree #thereturn would be about Cleveland...I'm just not convinced that's what the meeting was about. I'm pretty sure he's going back to Miami. Hope I'm wrong...
 

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Happiest people outside Cleveland if Lebron goes back?
 
The Union.
They're reportedly really pissed at the Heat for hardcapping themselves intentionally in an effort to pressure Lebron, Wade and Bosh into taking less money.
 

bowiac

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JCizzle said:
Is that guy reliable?
Moreso than the personal trainers previous reports have been relying on, but given he's saying "90 percent", it doesn't mean much. That's a source guessing, who may very well be relying on the personal trainer.
 

RedOctober3829

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Here is what Sheridan wrote:

A plugged-in source tells me there is a 90 percent chance that LeBron James will return to the Cleveland Cavaliers, and it will be announced on www.lebronjames.com if it happens.

That is my latest intelligence, and it comes from the same league source who told me Monday that he felt there was a 75 percent chance James returns to his original NBA team.

Remember this, folks: This comes down to LeBron building a legacy, which leads us to two points:

_There is nothing left for him to accomplish in Miami. He went there for four years, he went to the NBA Finals all four years, and he won two titles while learning what it takes to be a champion. Nobody can ever take that away from him.
_ A chance to return home as a successful, seasoned adult with a chance to deliver the city of Cleveland its first championship in any sport since 1964 is too much of a legacy opportunity for James to pass up.
_ And another thing: The best player he has a chance to team up with is named Kyrie Irving.

http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2014/07/08/sheridans-top-25-free-agents-july-8-edition/#g7pkiHO0I47ZkjxI.99
 

Cellar-Door

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BigSoxFan said:
Did Chris Sheridan really just say that Kyrie Irving is a better basketball player than Chris Bosh? Maybe eventually but definitely not now.
Chris Bosh is going to be the most underrated $20M+ a year guy in league history next year.
 

jon abbey

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I've said for a long time that if LeBron's goal really is to challenge Jordan's legacy, the way to do it is to win titles with more than one team. 
 

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I feel bad for the media interns who are now tasked with constantly refreshing lebronjames.com 24 hours a day until this breaks.