Miami Heat: Pat Riley's Grease Fire

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McRoberts has committed to the Heat instead of the Hornets, according to Marc Stein:
 




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Marc SteinVerified account‏@ESPNSteinLine

ESPN learned that Josh McRoberts has verbally committed to sign with the Miami Heat
 
https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/486223420406136832

 
If this news doesn't lure LBJ back to the Heat, I don't know what will.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Your post is spot on.

Saying that Bosh is the domino that needs to fall is ridiculous...

We're all about to get a free lesson in PR, I'm just not so sure I agree with the manner LBJ's PR reps are handling this situation.

What are they doing wrong? LeBron is a free agent and doing his due diligence. His team is simply doing their job.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

 
If this news doesn't lure LBJ back to the Heat, I don't know what will.

 
How about Danny Granger for 2 years and 4.2 million?

 

[ElUno20]

Two moves in an hour. Did lebron finally give riley an answer?

 

[Devizier]

2014-15 Miami Heat starting five?
 
C Chris Andersen
PF Josh McRoberts
SF Danny Granger
SG Dwyane Wade
PG Shabazz Napier
 
Awesome.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

Two moves in an hour. Did lebron finally give riley an answer?

 
The Granger move is so small it doesn't move the needle one way or another. McBob meanwhile, agreed to an amount that could be the MLE, or could be a regular old offer, depending on the Heat's cap situation with the Big 3. I suspect Riley doesn't know any more than the rest of us, he just needs something to point to in his next meeting.

 

[jon abbey]

So if I'm not mistaken, the second that Parsons signs this, HOU loses the room for that Bosh offer, right?
 
Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA  11m
Mavericks pushing on an offer sheet agreement with Houston restricted free agent Chandler Parsons, league sources tell Yahoo.

 

[Cellar-Door]

The McRoberts deal is reportedly the non-taxpayer exception. (4 years 22 or so) which means the Heat are hard capped at approximately $81M for this year.

 

[bbc23]

So if I'm not mistaken, the second that Parsons signs this, HOU loses the room for that Bosh offer, right?
 
Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA  11m
Mavericks pushing on an offer sheet agreement with Houston restricted free agent Chandler Parsons, league sources tell Yahoo.

Unless they choose to let him go before that 3 day period ends, which I believe is an option, you are correct.  

 

[zenter]

So if I'm not mistaken, the second that Parsons signs this, HOU loses the room for that Bosh offer, right?
 
Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA  11m
Mavericks pushing on an offer sheet agreement with Houston restricted free agent Chandler Parsons, league sources tell Yahoo.

 
Two CBA questions...
 
Is it the moment the offer sheet is offered that the cap hold rises, or after the sheet is signed (during the 3-day period)?
 
Isn't there also some kind of protection for the "owning" team? IOW, if the Rockets sign Bosh today, doesn't the max offer sheet for Parsons automatically fall to the most Houston can bear or something?
 
I'd consult CBA FAQ right now, but I'm running into a meeting...

 

[Clears Cleaver]

 
Three things to consider.
 
1) Bosh is not an unfair comp to KG on offense. Through their respective age-29 seasons, KG was slightly better by the numbers, but he also was the only guy carrying his team on both sides of the ball. KG was +2 RB, +2 AST, but they have the same per-36 scoring. Not saying Bosh=KG, but he's definitely worth a max deal, and will probably be a very good player at the end of the deal.
 
2) Assuming this isn't a max 35% contract, but is instead fixed at max for 2014-15 with standard 4.5% risers, it probably shouldn't be a big worry. The cap is going to grow faster than 4.5% over the next 4 years to the point that 24M isn't prohibitive.
 
3) The amount of salary pressure this puts on Miami is huge.
 
In other words, I think this is exactly what a sabermetrically-savvy team might do, especially if it plans to clear Lin's contract.

 
Thanks. I get it from the pressure it puts on Miami. but KG was a premier defensive player, not just rebounder. Bosh is secondary or tertiary player, a role he may play well for Hou (but doesn't help their D). I'm just not a fan of his game, even next to the other guy who should in theory let him roam in Howard. I'm sure Morey has identified where he is most effective and how that fits in with Houston's offense. It also means they will have $60M or so dedicated to Howard, Bosh and HArden and very little else. that a team that can compete in the West? no defense at three positions? ehhhhh
 
Clearing Lin's salary easy? any team need a backup sideshow?

 

[bowiac]

Unless they choose to let him go before that 3 day period ends, which I believe is an option, you are correct.  

Which is why I assume he won't sign anything until Houston gets resolution from Bosh/Melo.
 
I can't believe anyone is giving Houston crap for a Bosh offer. Besides the fact that Bosh is good, there's basically nowhere else for that money to go. This is their one chance. Parsons has a cap hold of like $1.8M, but is going to get ~$10M this offseason. Next year, they won't have max room to get a 3rd star. Right now, they can sign a max player, and then use Parsons' bird rights to keep him after. They aren't going to get another chance.
 
Beverley, Harden, Parsons, Bosh, Howard is as good a starting 5 as there is in the NBA.

 

[bowiac]

Two CBA questions...
 
Is it the moment the offer sheet is offered that the cap hold rises, or after the sheet is signed (during the 3-day period)?
 
Isn't there also some kind of protection for the "owning" team? IOW, if the Rockets sign Bosh today, doesn't the max offer sheet for Parsons automatically fall to the most Houston can bear or something?
 
I'd consult CBA FAQ right now, but I'm running into a meeting...

1. His cap hold goes up when he signs the offer sheet, not when it's offered.
 
2. I think the "protection" you're talking about is the Gilbert Arenas rule, which is why the Lin/Asik contracts ended up being so weird looking. That doesn't apply to Parsons as a 3rd year veteran - the Rockets just have full bird rights on him, and don't need Gilbert Arenas protection.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Beverley, Harden, Parsons, Bosh, Howard is as good a starting 5 as there is in the NBA.

Hard to imagine they can make Harden, Parsons, Bosh and Howard work financially. I'd assume Bosh arriving entails Parsons being cut loose.
 
Still, the remaining four plus Parsons-replacement X is may be as a good a starting five as there is in the NBA.

 

[bowiac]

Hard to imagine they can make Harden, Parsons, Bosh and Howard work financially. I'd assume Bosh arriving entails Parsons being cut loose.
 
Still, the remaining four plus Parsons-replacement X is may be as a good a starting five as there is in the NBA.

They can match any offer on Parsons. They have full bird rights on him. That's why the specifics of Bosh's salary barely matter. Once Houston signs him, they're in cap exception land regardless.

 

[Devizier]

Hard to think of Bosh comparables: 'Sheed and Chris Webber are the closest that come to mind. Both of those guys were bonafide max players in their time although they had their warts.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Hard to imagine they can make Harden, Parsons, Bosh and Howard work financially. I'd assume Bosh arriving entails Parsons being cut loose.
 
Still, the remaining four plus Parsons-replacement X is may be as a good a starting five as there is in the NBA.

As long as they are willing to pay a good chunk of tax it works just fine.
Sign Bosh, match Parsons, then fill in with a tax-payer exception.
If they aren't willing to pay the tax they need to find a team to dump Lin on.
 
They are at about 58 right now. (but 8 of that is going once the Asik trade goes through).
Assume something like 30 for Parsons and Bosh?  That's 80M, well into the projected tax, but doable. Dump Lin and you are right about at the projected Tax line.

 

[Kliq]

Something that is really bugging me about LeBron is that he is apparently insisting to make the max this season, and he wants to be the highest paid player on his team. That just seems like such a fucking selfish thing to do. So what if some other guy has a higher salary, you are LeBron James! You make more cash off of your shoes then most people make their entire NBA careers! The guy has got endorsements coming out of his ass! Why does it matter that you are not the highest paid player on the team? Do people really not know who the REAL top dog on the team is?

 

[jose melendez]

I don't have a problem with that--what I do kind of think is crappy is the notion he seems to have that other peopel should take less than they can get (Bosh) in order to play with him.  But ultimately, I'm just enjoying the show.  I'm fine with any outcome that doesn't involve him going to the Lakers or Knicks.

 

[Euclis20]

Something that is really bugging me about LeBron is that he is apparently insisting to make the max this season, and he wants to be the highest paid player on his team. That just seems like such a fucking selfish thing to do. So what if some other guy has a higher salary, you are LeBron James! You make more cash off of your shoes then most people make their entire NBA careers! The guy has got endorsements coming out of his ass! Why does it matter that you are not the highest paid player on the team? Do people really not know who the REAL top dog on the team is?

 
I imagine you dislike 99% of all professional athletes, then.

 

[Blacken]

Something that is really bugging me about LeBron is that he is apparently insisting to make the max this season, and he wants to be the highest paid player on his team. That just seems like such a fucking selfish thing to do. So what if some other guy has a higher salary, you are LeBron James! You make more cash off of your shoes then most people make their entire NBA careers! The guy has got endorsements coming out of his ass! Why does it matter that you are not the highest paid player on the team? Do people really not know who the REAL top dog on the team is?

Exhibit Q (yeah, we're that far down) on why LeBron cannot win with everybody.

Fucking selfish to make a 20-33% of what he'd make in an uncapped league. Yup.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Now Granger at two years, $4.2 million. It's happening. This uses Heat $2 million bi-annual exception. Still have $2.2 million trade excep.  Heat can turn Granger's bi-annual deal into trade-exception move by making it a trade with Clippers, giving L.A. their own trade exception.  Heat's use of exceptions is a game-changer when it comes to Bosh. There no longer is any need to ask him to take significantly less.  In fact, this is the way the Bosh camp wanted it to go. With Heat not needing space, there basically is no need for Bosh to take any cut.

 
This is a series of tweets by Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.  If this is all true, then maybe they can fit Bosh in without him taking a significant pay cut.

 

[LuckyBen]

Something that is really bugging me about LeBron is that he is apparently insisting to make the max this season, and he wants to be the highest paid player on his team. That just seems like such a fucking selfish thing to do. So what if some other guy has a higher salary, you are LeBron James! You make more cash off of your shoes then most people make their entire NBA careers! The guy has got endorsements coming out of his ass! Why does it matter that you are not the highest paid player on the team? Do people really not know who the REAL top dog on the team is?

I'm a LeBron hater, but he deserves to be the highest paid player in the league. When people were advocating he sign for 5 million because of his endorsements, I would find that inexcusable.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Adrian Wojnarowski ‏@WojYahooNBA 3m
No guarantees made, but Danny Granger/Josh McRoberts committed to Heat w/ strong belief LeBron James will be a teammate, sources tell Yahoo.
 

 

[zenter]

Something that is really bugging me about LeBron is that he is apparently insisting to make the max this season, and he wants to be the highest paid player on his team. That just seems like such a fucking selfish thing to do. So what if some other guy has a higher salary, you are LeBron James! You make more cash off of your shoes then most people make their entire NBA careers! The guy has got endorsements coming out of his ass! Why does it matter that you are not the highest paid player on the team? Do people really not know who the REAL top dog on the team is?

 
So... As long as you do well in the stock market, you wouldn't mind being paid much less than a less competent and less valuable coworker? If you had $10M in billings last year and made less than 50K, I'm sure you'd ask why you're leaving money on the table, especially if another company would be willing to pay closer to your value... Regardless of whether you are killing it on your Google investment in 2006.
 
Court-value alone, LeBron is worth north of 40M/year. He's possibly the most valuable player in all of American sports. Asking for a max contract is leaving significant money on the table. It's not really about showing who's top dog. It's about being close to value.
 
If you've got a problem with LeBron trying to maximize his value within the system, consider how the owners screwed over the players (especially star players and rookies) in the last CBA negotiations. Consider how the last megasuperduperstar (Michael Jordan) was intransigent and the least sympathetic to players. And consider how the players are rightfully planning to opt out come 2017.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

 
This is a series of tweets by Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.  If this is all true, then maybe they can fit Bosh in without him taking a significant pay cut.

 
I definitely don't know the ins and outs of the caps, but from what I've seen, now that they are operating as a capped-out team, yes they can give Bosh the max.  However, I think they are also done with making major moves.  They do have a trade exception (or the bi-annual exception if they can turn Granger into the trade exception) but from what I understand, that's it, isn't it?
 
I'm sure I'll be corrected if this is wrong in any way.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Tim Reynolds ‏@ByTimReynolds 1m
The plane that came to South Florida yesterday ... c'mon, you know the one ... no longer can be tracked online. Lolz.
 

 

[ALiveH]

It's a story old as time...A bunch of nobodies on a message board sitting around making judgments about so-and-so player's decision on where he should play and for how much.  Reminds me of the guys who thought Jordan or Favre should have stayed retired.  One of the only industries in the world where it is considered socially acceptable for complete strangers to chime on on what is ordinarily a deeply personal decision.
 
If I was Lebron I would be doing my best to block it out and would make the maximally selfish decision just like almost every joe schmoe does.

 

[bowiac]

I definitely don't know the ins and outs of the caps, but from what I've seen, now that they are operating as a capped-out team, yes they can give Bosh the max.  However, I think they are also done with making major moves.  They do have a trade exception (or the bi-annual exception if they can turn Granger into the trade exception) but from what I understand, that's it, isn't it?
 
I'm sure I'll be corrected if this is wrong in any way.

I think you are correct, yes. Both the McRoberts moves and the Granger moves are cap-exception moves. Accordingly, they can give everyone the max (assuming they're below the hard cap).

 

[jon abbey]

If adding McRoberts and Granger and Napier is enough to keep LeBron around, he is stupider than I think, and he is a very smart guy. 

 

[DJnVa]

Something that is really bugging me about LeBron is that he is apparently insisting to make the max this season, and he wants to be the highest paid player on his team. That just seems like such a fucking selfish thing to do. So what if some other guy has a higher salary, you are LeBron James! You make more cash off of your shoes then most people make their entire NBA careers! The guy has got endorsements coming out of his ass! Why does it matter that you are not the highest paid player on the team? Do people really not know who the REAL top dog on the team is?

I'd be annoyed if everyone else figured they could cash in because they figure I should take less.

 

[RedOctober3829]

@IraHeatBeat: Figure on Riley-LeBron summit within next 24 hours, and likely not in Miami.

 

[fairlee76]

If adding McRoberts and Granger and Napier is enough to keep LeBron around, he is stupider than I think, and he is a very smart guy. 

Yup. If those are the only tweaks Riley makes, I'd be surprised to see LeBron back in Miami. Now, if they send Wade to Kobe's platelet therapy doctor, that changes things entirely.

LeBron as a free agent is never boring, that's for sure.

 

[Mugthis]

At this point, LeBron staying with Miami will be...boring. Any other destination would be more fun for a general NBA fan.
 
Cleveland obviously doesn't have the talent in place like the other rumored possibilities, but I think it's reasonable that LeBron would not only hide a lot of Kyrie Irving's deficiencies, but also help his development. Irving as a second option on offense seems ideal, and who knows, maybe he'd be able to expend more energy on defense? Likewise with Wiggins, who would be coming into the NBA in an ideal environment for rapid development and maximizing his current abilities. 
 
Bennett was godawful last year, but for those who watched him more, is there any reason to think he could be a useful part of this squad?  
 
And for those that are much smarter about the CBA and team finances: If LeBron does go to Cleveland, assuming a max contract, what are their options for trading for Love and then re-resigning him next year?
 
A Irving-Wiggins-LeBron-Varejao-Love starting lineup would be a lot of fun. Is it possible?
 
If Cleveland can't get Love, do they have any other realistic possibilities to beef up the roster for LeBron?

 

[bowiac]

@IraHeatBeat: Figure on Riley-LeBron summit within next 24 hours, and likely not in Miami.

This is gonna end with Riley taking over that new expansion franchise in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and he's gonna sign LeBron to be his franchise player.

 

[Blacken]

This is gonna end with Riley taking over that new expansion franchise in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and he's gonna sign LeBron to be his franchise player.

The Albuquerque Isotopes are gettin' into basketholes.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

At this point, LeBron staying with Miami will be...boring. Any other destination would be more fun for a general NBA fan.
 
A Irving-Wiggins-LeBron-Varejao-Love starting lineup would be a lot of fun. Is it possible?
 
 

 
Sure, as long as Minny agrees to accept Jarrett Jack, Anthony Bennett and Tristan Thompson in return for Love.  So then no, no its not possible.

 

[bowiac]

Sure, as long as Minny agrees to accept Jarrett Jack, Anthony Bennett and Tristan Thompson in return for Love.  So then no, no its not possible.

And Dion Waiters! And picks! And Cody Zeller!
 
I do think there's a scenario where they can get something done actually, but Varejao would probably need to be involved. He's a good player on a short term, reasonable money deal, but not so good that losing him would make LeBron not want to come. I don't know what delusion team wants Varejao, but may give up a real asset for him. If the Pelicans hadn't just traded for Asik, I'd suggest them, but there's lots of teams that think they're a decent center away from a first round playoff exit.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

And Dion Waiters! And picks! And Cody Zeller!
 
I do think there's a scenario where they can get something done actually, but Varejao would probably need to be involved. He's a good player on a short term, reasonable money deal, but not so good that losing him would make LeBron not want to come. I don't know what delusion team wants Varejao, but may give up a real asset for him. If the Pelicans hadn't just traded for Asik, I'd suggest them, but there's lots of teams that think they're a decent center away from a first round playoff exit.

 
Right. If Cleveland can get Love without giving up Wiggins or Varejao++, then I may actually start believing that the NBA is rigged, and Stern is the shadow puppetmaster, still running things from a shuffle board court in Palm Beach.  Varejao doesn't make a lot of sense for a rebuilding T-wolves, so I'd imagine a third team would need to be involved to get talks started.  

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
The Granger move is so small it doesn't move the needle one way or another. McBob meanwhile, agreed to an amount that could be the MLE, or could be a regular old offer, depending on the Heat's cap situation with the Big 3. I suspect Riley doesn't know any more than the rest of us, he just needs something to point to in his next meeting.

It's more surprising that Granger's prime last so long as multiple teams reportedly had red-flagged him following his physical at the Combine. Generally speaking that is a death knell to a player when teams take such talent off their board for medical reasons.

 

[jon abbey]

I do think there's a scenario where they can get something done actually, but Varejao would probably need to be involved. He's a good player on a short term, reasonable money deal, but not so good that losing him would make LeBron not want to come. 

 
I bet this isn't true, he really likes Varejao from their prior time together and I bet if he wasn't there, LeBron's interest in going to CLE would drop at least one notch. 

 

[bowiac]

I bet this isn't true, he really likes Varejao from their prior time together and I bet if he wasn't there, LeBron's interest in going to CLE would drop at least one notch. 

I think that's true, unless it led to them getting Kevin Love...
 
I'm not the biggest fan of either Love or Irving, but both those guys have pretty stellar reps in the league. If he's actually considering going to Cleveland, playing with those two, with Wiggins taking on a bigger role over time, might look pretty good. A nice next 4 year period.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I think you are correct, yes. Both the McRoberts moves and the Granger moves are cap-exception moves. Accordingly, they can give everyone the max (assuming they're below the hard cap).

 
Decent summary of the Heat's cap situation here:  http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/retooling-big-begins/story?id=24460743&singlePage=true. 
 
One thing to note - by making themselves hard-capped (by signing McRoberts to the MLE), the Heat are ensuring that they will not be taxpayers this season.  That means the Heat will not be subject to the three-time taxpayer penalty, which is stiff.
 
That means Arison is going to save tens of millions of dollars.
 
Wonder how LBJ feels about that?

 

[ElUno20]

At this point isnt obvious he's leaving? If he was staying, the best play would have been to commit earlier to give riley a shot at some decent players. He's probably just been building up the balls the last week to tell riley

 

[swingin val]

What decent players did they have a shot at though? And what dcent players have actually signed?

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

At this point isnt obvious he's leaving? If he was staying, the best play would have been to commit earlier to give riley a shot at some decent players. He's probably just been building up the balls the last week to tell riley

 
It actually doesn't seem obvious to me at all. I also don't understand why various folks both here and in the media have been describing this as a "circus" or accusing James of indecision. Free Agency is a week old today, and players aren't even eligible to sign contracts until Thursday. James' agent has met with teams in which there are mutual interest, and I'm sure he'll make a decision soon. The idea that he's somehow holding the process hostage is pure media construction; this is how the process was designed, and James and his agent may well have their decision before players are even eligible to sign new contracts. 

 

[Clears Cleaver]

I was listening to LeBatard on way home yday and Simmons was saying that the new TV deal will raise the salary cap at least 10-12M per team. makes no sense for LeBron to sign a deal on any length because of this. unlike the others who probably will show materially decline in next two years.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Ken Berger makes an interesting point for those of us who are interested in the real-world implications of the new CBA.  If Bosh indeed goes to HOU, then the Heat become a team with cap-room and apparently they lose the MLE and bi-annual exception, which means that to sign McRoberts, they would have to fit him in under the cap.
 
I would not like to be in Pat Riley's shoes right now.

 

[DJnVa]

Ken Berger makes an interesting point for those of us who are interested in the real-world implications of the new CBA.  If Bosh indeed goes to HOU, then the Heat become a team with cap-room and apparently they lose the MLE and bi-annual exception, which means that to sign McRoberts, they would have to fit him in under the cap.
 
I would not like to be in Pat Riley's shoes right now.

 
Broussard mentioned this today too. Granger would have to fit as well, taking up money that they would possibly turn towards Melo.

 

[bowiac]

At this point isnt obvious he's leaving? If he was staying, the best play would have been to commit earlier to give riley a shot at some decent players. He's probably just been building up the balls the last week to tell riley

I'd lay three to one odds that he's staying.