Midseason All-Pro List

[RedOctober3829]

Chris Wessling of NFL.com put out his Midseason All-Pro team.  Weird that he didn't do OL.
 
Offense
QB: Brady
RB: Gurley
"Satellite Back": Dion Lewis
FB: DiMarco(Atlanta)
TE: Gronk
WR: Fitzgerald, Jones, and Steve Smith
PK: Justin Tucker
KR: Landry
 
Defense
Ends: Watt and Jordan
Tackles: Aaron Donald and Kawann Short
Edge Rushers: Ware and Miller
LBs: Collins and Hightower
CBs: Norman and Revis
Slot CB: Mathieu
Safeties: Harrison Smith and Reshad Jones
P: Hekker
 
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000572707/article/position-rankings-midseason-allpro-team?campaign=Twitter_atn 
 

 

[Jungleland]

Cool to see the pats so well represented but uh Steve Smith over Deandre Hopkins? Most of his honorable mentions at wr seem like much easier picks. Snubbing Marshall, Allen, Hopkins is crazy to me.

 

[tims4wins]

Justin Tucker is a great kicker, but you simply can't justify him over Ghost. Tucker is 19 for 22 vs. 17 for 17 for Ghost. Plus, Tucker missed his FGs in a 4 point loss (1st quarter miss, down 7-0, 50 yards), a 5 point loss (3rd quarter miss, down 19-13, 45 yards), and a 3 point OT loss (2nd quarter, up 14-6, 51 yards).
 
They were all long attempts, and generally he has been good, but if he had made one or two of those kicks the Ravens might be something like 4-4 instead of 6-2.

 

[amarshal2]

Can people please stop pointing out how freaking awesome Collins and Hightower are so BB can sign them to just plain old big contracts instead of them demanding JJ Watt All-Pro contracts? This was more fun when they were under the radar.
 
I kid, sort of.  

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Why Tucker over Gostkowski? They've both made 9 field goals over 40 yards, but SG is perfect on such kicks, and Tucker has missed three. He should at least be in the "noteworthy" section over Dan Bailey (wtf).

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Why Tucker over Gostkowski? They've both made 9 field goals over 40 yards, but SG is perfect on such kicks, and Tucker has missed three. He should at least be in the "noteworthy" section over Dan Bailey (wtf).

He must be listening to 98.5 between 2-6pm.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

I'd put Hopkins (easy choice), Fitzgerald and Keenan Allen (RIP) ahead of Steve Smith.
 
I guess if it was a life time achievement award Smith would get the vote?

 

[Ale Xander]

I'd put Hopkins over both Fitzy and Smith. Crappy team, crappy QB's, ridiculous 1st down %
 
err beaten by NPJ

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Surprised by Gurley over Devonta Freman at RB.

 

[Ale Xander]

Also would still take Kuechly over Hightower
 
Wessling must have been a  fan of the '86 Giants

 

[Super Nomario]

Also would still take Kuechly over Hightower
 
Wessling must have been a  fan of the '86 Giants

Kuechly's a great player but he's only played four games.

 

[IdiotKicker]

Justin Tucker is a great kicker, but you simply can't justify him over Ghost. Tucker is 19 for 22 vs. 17 for 17 for Ghost. Plus, Tucker missed his FGs in a 4 point loss (1st quarter miss, down 7-0, 50 yards), a 5 point loss (3rd quarter miss, down 19-13, 45 yards), and a 3 point OT loss (2nd quarter, up 14-6, 51 yards).
 
They were all long attempts, and generally he has been good, but if he had made one or two of those kicks the Ravens might be something like 4-4 instead of 6-2.

Tucker does have a 93% TB rate compared to Gostkowski at 74%.

 

[tims4wins]

Tucker does have a 93% TB rate compared to Gostkowski at 74%.

 
Does that make up for the points he has cost his team through misses?

 

[BernieRicoBoomer]

 
Does that make up for the points he has cost his team through misses?

 
I'm shocked Gostkowski has that many returns against him.  Still only one past the 30 that I can see...which didn't result in points, so there's that.

 

[soxfan121]

 
Does that make up for the points he has cost his team through misses?

 
There isn't a metric on earth that directly compares the two, but field position is underrated as part of scoring calculus.

 

[IdiotKicker]

 
Does that make up for the points he has cost his team through misses?

 
So here's the best I can come up with.
 
Tucker has 43 kickoffs with only 3 returns. (93%)
Gostkowski has 52 kickoffs with 12 returns. (77% actually)
 
Patriots have given up 22.8 yards per return.
Ravens have given up 26.0 yards per return.
 
We're dealing with miniscule sample sizes here, so we have no idea if these are legitimate representations of what we could expect over a larger number of kicks, but we can't really go back to last year since there is so much ST turnover from year to year.
 
So let's say the Ravens end up with a TB% at the same rate. Tucker ends up with 10 returns instead in that scenario, each one producing 6 additional yards. Now we know that the relationship between yardage and expected points scored is pretty close to linear, with every 20 yards being about a point. So if we're talking 60 additional yards, Tucker probably picks up about 3 points on Gostkowski there.
 
So there's a gap of around 6 points in favor of Gostkowski. I'd probably go with Gostkowski, but I don't think there's anything wrong with Tucker getting the nod either since it is so close. We're well within the margin of error for such small sample sizes.

 

[tims4wins]

 
There isn't a metric on earth that directly compares the two, but field position is underrated as part of scoring calculus.

 
Totally agree - where can I find the average opponent drive start after a kickoff? The point is that I bet Ghost and Tucker aren't far apart despite the touchbacks

 

[I12XU]

I'm shocked Gostkowski has that many returns against him.  Still only one past the 30 that I can see...which didn't result in points, so there's that.

Landry took one to the 50, two others returned to the 22, and one returned to the 30--4 total returns with net positive yards over touchback; 1 return to the 20 for a push; and 7 returns for net negative yards vs touchback.

 

[tims4wins]

 
So here's the best I can come up with.
 
Tucker has 43 kickoffs with only 3 returns. (93%)
Gostkowski has 52 kickoffs with 12 returns. (77% actually)
 
Patriots have given up 22.8 yards per return.
Ravens have given up 26.0 yards per return.
 
We're dealing with miniscule sample sizes here, so we have no idea if these are legitimate representations of what we could expect over a larger number of kicks, but we can't really go back to last year since there is so much ST turnover from year to year.
 
So let's say the Ravens end up with a TB% at the same rate. Tucker ends up with 10 returns instead in that scenario, each one producing 6 additional yards. Now we know that the relationship between yardage and expected points scored is pretty close to linear, with every 20 yards being about a point. So if we're talking 60 additional yards, Tucker probably picks up about 3 points on Gostkowski there.
 
So there's a gap of around 6 points in favor of Gostkowski. I'd probably go with Gostkowski, but I don't think there's anything wrong with Tucker getting the nod either since it is so close. We're well within the margin of error for such small sample sizes.

 
Great stuff. Since Tucker is giving up ~5 yards a return more than Ghost on his returns, it kind of validates my point. His extra touchbacks are partially negated by bigger return yardage, so average start position is likely minimal.

 

[IdiotKicker]

All of Ghost's kickoffs this year.

 

[IdiotKicker]

 
Great stuff. Since Tucker is giving up ~5 yards a return more than Ghost on his returns, it kind of validates my point. His extra touchbacks are partially negated by bigger return yardage, so average start position is likely minimal.

 
Not sure if I'm reading this wrong, but because the Ravens are giving up more yardage when the ball is brought out, the value of a touchback is greater for them actually.

 

[tims4wins]

 
Not sure if I'm reading this wrong, but because the Ravens are giving up more yardage when the ball is brought out, the value of a touchback is greater for them actually.

 
Understood, the point is that whatever Ghost is losing on not getting touchbacks is partially negated by Tucker giving up more return yardage, if that makes sense

 

[I12XU]

Just looking at KR yards won't answer field position... Many of Ghost's returned kicks were from the back of the end zone, so there's 26 yd returns to the 17.

 

[moondog80]

 
Great stuff. Since Tucker is giving up ~5 yards a return more than Ghost on his returns, it kind of validates my point. His extra touchbacks are partially negated by bigger return yardage, so average start position is likely minimal.

 
 
Except that the kicker has only partial (little?) control on return yardage on kicks that are not touchbacks, but more more control over whether or not a kick is a touchback in the first place.

 

[IdiotKicker]

Just looking at KR yards won't answer field position... Many of Ghost's returned kicks were from the back of the end zone, so there's 26 yd returns to the 17.

 
Only 3 kicks out of 12 were returned from greater than 5 yards deep in the end zone.

 

[IdiotKicker]

Now the area where I do have a bigger issue is selecting Hekker as All-Pro for punter. He's in the conversation, but Sam Koch has had an outstanding year for the Ravens and probably gets my nod by a hair over Pat McAfee right now. 

 

[coremiller]

 
There isn't a metric on earth that directly compares the two, but field position is underrated as part of scoring calculus.

 
Yes there is.  Football Outsiders calculates the field position resulting from kickoffs, and then converts it to a point value based on the expected points scored from that field position.  Gostkowski is 2.2 points above average, Tucker 1.8.  That doesn't isolate the kicker's performance from the coverage unit's, but it's a start.  They also calculate field goal points above average based on average conversion rates for field goals based on kick distance.  Gostkowksi is 10.3 points above average there (by far the best in the league), Tucker 2.3.  Combining kickoffs and FGs, Gostkowski is 12.5 points above average, Tucker 4.1.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

I wonder if there's a psychological aspect to it -- when playing against the Pats there's more of a need to score as many points as possible, so taking it out and trying to get a big return is on the mind of the kick returner? It doesn't seem crazy to me, especially if your team is already down 10+ points.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Khalil Mack should be on there over Miller, or, especially Ware. He as many pressures as both of them, comparable sack numbers, is better against the run than either, hasn't been hurt like Ware and is not a penalty machine like Miller. You can probably make the same argument for Justin Houston.   
 
If they are going to have a FB, they should have two tight ends. Multiple tight ends are much more common that fullbacks in the NFL these days and Eifert should be the second tight end on any All Pro team this year.
 
I would take Chris Harris over Revis.
 
Finally, there needs to be a player / coach position for Chuck Woodson.

 

[soxfan121]

 
Yes there is.  Football Outsiders calculates the field position resulting from kickoffs, and then converts it to a point value based on the expected points scored from that field position.

Thanks. Interesting.

 

[IdiotKicker]

 
Yes there is.  Football Outsiders calculates the field position resulting from kickoffs, and then converts it to a point value based on the expected points scored from that field position.  Gostkowski is 2.2 points above average, Tucker 1.8.  That doesn't isolate the kicker's performance from the coverage unit's, but it's a start.  They also calculate field goal points above average based on average conversion rates for field goals based on kick distance.  Gostkowksi is 10.3 points above average there (by far the best in the league), Tucker 2.3.  Combining kickoffs and FGs, Gostkowski is 12.5 points above average, Tucker 4.1.

 
This also doesn't correct for the # of kicks. If you go on a per-kick basis, the two are identical at 0.42 points per kick since the Patriots simply have more kickoffs. When you correct for this, you probably end up right in that 6 point difference that I had above.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I don't think Revis is a top 2 CB at this point. In addition to Norman, I'd probably take Sherman, Harris, and Talib over him. He will always have his technique, but he's lost speed and quickness and the nagging injuries are starting to pop up for him. He's still very good, but his days as the league's truly elite may be over.

And as much as I like Collins and Hightower, Wagner may be better than both. Now if I have to choose between Hightower and Collins...I have no idea.

Edit - Or is Harris considered a slot CB?

 

[amarshal2]

Bedard put one out.  His is better.
 
QB: Brady
RB: Bell
WR: Julio, Hopkins, Fitzgerald
TE: Gronkowski
OT: Tyron Smith, Whitworth
OG: Yanda, Martin
C: Kalil
 
K: Gostkowski
KR: Adam Jones
P: Koch
 
DE: Watt, Cam Jordan
DT: Donald, Short
OLB: Miller, Mack
ILB: Kuechly -- a little weird with only 4 games played
LB: Hightower
CB: Norman, Harris Jr.
Slot CB: Mathieu
S: Harrison Smith
S: Reshad Jones (really??)
 
http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/11/05/blanket-coverage-nfl-week-9-all-pro
 

QB: Tom Brady, Patriots. He’s so good that his one mistake, a pick-six against the Colts, was actually a perfect pass that Julian Edelman dropped.Carson Palmer of the Cardinals is the only other player that deserves consideration at this point.
 

 

TE: Rob Gronkowski, Patriots. If the second half of his season is just as strong as his first, he will merit consideration for league MVP and, certainly, Offensive Player of the Year. One thing to watch: Gronkowski’s blocking has regressed after a very strong start. Is he battling something or just bored?

 
 I haven't noticed a decline in Gronk's blocking but something to watch.
 

K: Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots. Great on kickoffs and perfect on all field goals and extra points. What else do you want?

 

LB: Dont’a Hightower, Patriots. Jamie Collins gets more attention because of his athletic ability and his plays against the pass, but Hightower is the engine of the defense and is better rushing the passer and stopping the run.