Might as well start talking about 2021

Just for completeness, bWAR has them much closer: Rendon at 31.2 WAR over 8 seasons, Springer at 27.5 over 7.
Fair enough, although since 2017 its 19.3 for Rendon and 16.3 for Springer, close to a 20% difference. Rendon's 2013 and 2015 really drag down his averages if you're looking at entire career. You're right though that bWAR has them closer.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Would we even wang JBJ on a deal longer than maybe 2 years? Duran is going to be ready soon, and with Verdugo that only leaves one spot available in the outfield long-term. I'd take JBJ over Benintendi for a year, but long-term I'd prefer Benni. Of course it's a pretty good chance they don't have either of them to start the season.
Unless there's outside interest in JBJ that I haven't seen, I can't imagine it will take more than a two year deal to get him signed.
 

pdub

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So if Bleacher Report is to be believed, the Cubs really want to unload Kris Bryant, but haven't been able to because of his $19M salary and his poor 2020. If its true that they're just looking for a salary dump, this is the type of risk I would take. He's still under 30 and I'll bet his bat returns to form. And he has a good glove.

As much as I'd prefer to upgrade the pitching, this is a move I would look at if the reports are actually true. I'm skeptical though.
 

allmanbro

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If they don't actually want Bryant (he's a bit of an awkward fit with the roster), maybe they could swing a three team trade where they take on most of Bryant's salary and flip him for something more useful. He only has one year left on his contract, so taking on $10 or so million wouldn't be so bad for the Sox if they could get a near MLB starter back (especially if they don't plan to compete in 2021). I wonder if the Blue Jays would do a deal like that in the division. The Cardinals might also be a candidate, and either team might also like Beni as part of the package.
 

Manramsclan

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Unless there's outside interest in JBJ that I haven't seen, I can't imagine it will take more than a two year deal to get him signed.
While I think you are right about the two year deal, the teams in on Springer would probably be looking at him. Now both the Astros and the Mets have holes in CF and they both have aspirations of contending. I'd say the market looks better for JBJ now than it did before the Springer signing. The Mets in particular really need a CF and have money to spend.
 

Earthbound64

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Last year's team had the worst winning percentage of any team since I was a year old (1965), and the second worst since 1932, which is before my now-deceased parents were born. We may have had the worst pitching staff in franchise history, certainly in the last 75 years. The team has made only very modest changes since last year and is pretty much entirely dependent on a return to health of Sale and Rodriguez and a return to form of JDM to avoid another catastrophic season.

I'm sorry but I find that hard to get excited about. YMMV.
Yeah, I guess my market varies in that while some of those things are concerning and should be worked on, it doesn't dampen my excitement for another season. I love watching / listening to Baseball (frankly, the changes in the WEEI booth have impacted my excitement more than most things on-field).
 

BaseballJones

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I don't have NESN now thanks to YoutubeTV. So I'm gonna have to listen a lot more to WEEI. I love baseball on the radio as a general rule. But I'll be bummed to miss 95% of the games now on TV.
 

chawson

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Believing it is starting to feel like astrology at this point but those reports a few weeks ago that the Sox were "in on everyone" and had a chance to be "a top 5 offense" in 2021 had to mean something.

I really thought the dominoes would fall quick after Sugano, Kluber and LeMahieu signed. If I had to guess what's causing the holdup now, it's Bauer.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I just happened to turn the TV to MLB network a few minutes ago and they were doing their 2021 Outlook on the Sox, and were in the middle of an interview with Dalbec, who seems like a really good kid. Leiter was joking with him about his stuff on the mound, and whether he'd like to get back out there - he said no, he hadn't been on the mound since the College World Series, and likes what he's doing now more (although he admitted to throwing some change-ups on the side during warm-ups just to see if he's still got it). I think he's an easy kid to root for.

The consensus on the panel (Leiter, Carlos Pena and Robert Flores) was that the Sox are not a playoff team, as currently constituted. But Leiter was pretty high on Houck, pointing out that one of the things that makes his slider so tough is that he throws across his body (front foot plant more to 3B) which makes it hard for a RHH to pick up. He also liked his two-seamer "in" to RHH. He also likes Mata, who they showed some clips of, and noted that his development was hurt by COVID last year. He seemed to think that the Sox may be looking to see what they've got with the kids this year.

There's definitely some upside potential to this rotation (I think the offense will somehow be fine). I just hope it doesn't all crumble apart like it did last summer. That was literally unwatchable.
 

bsj

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I didn't expect the team to go from worst to first, but I'm disappointed by the failure to address the bullpen substantively to date My whole middle-class goal this offseason was bring in a 4 starter type (I really thought Lester was the guy) for a year for depth and then really add 2 or 3 really good bullpen arms...including one top shelf guy as their only major spend in the FA market. Not impressed with what they have brought in so far. Colome and Hand are my last hopes for anything more than a whole lot of dice rolling.
 

jon abbey

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I don't understand why they didn't jump at Hand on a one year deal?
His velocity has been decidedly down two years in a row but also I think most teams hadn't really figured out budgets at that point.

Edit: Hand cleared waivers October 30 and the Pfizer vaccine was approved I think November 9, hard to plan for 2021 attendance at all until that happened.
 

bohous

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Source: Red Sox have been in talks with Kiké Hernandez in recent days. Things might be heating up on that front. Unclear if anything is close.

General thought on their search at 2B: I think they're more inclined to add a versatile option to pair with Arroyo than a traditional 2B. Kiké, Marwin, Brad Miller among the fits there. Someone who can spell Dalbec as a LHH 1B is a plus.

Certainly a useful player from a roster building standpoint but doesn't fill immediate needs. Between Chavis, Arroyo, and Arauz there's pretty good depth at 2b. He does have quite few games in CF the last few years (started 44 game in 2018, only 16 in '19), so if they don't sign a dedicated CF like JBJ, he could provide some OF flexibility.


edit to note that I can't say how reliable Cotillo is. He's not somebody I follow.
 

chawson

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Kiké Hernandez rumors have circulated for over a month now so I figure that has a good chance to happen. My guess is he'd play CF more than 2B initially if they wanna give Arroyo a shot there. If that's true, then we're likely out on JBJ. They'd platoon well in CF but I don't think either would sign for a part-time job.

Two similar guys who have barely come up this winter are Jonathan Villar and Danny Santana. Villar had a terrible year after catching COVID but a fantastic one in the AL East in 2019, and there's some evidence that he too can play the outfield. He'd also address our glaring need for a backup shortstop. Santana was fantastic in 2019 and hurt in 2020, and seems to be a roughly average fielder just about everywhere on the diamond. He'd also be a good platoon/backup with Dalbec at 1B.

Say we trade Beni and Chavis for Rogers and Dickerson, then sign two of Villar, Santana, Profar and Hernandez. That would give us a bunch of lineup combinations to keep everyone healthy.

Lineup v. RHP:
Verdugo - RF, Bogaerts - SS, Devers - 3B, JDM - DH, Dickerson - LF, Dalbec - 1B, Villar - 2B, Vazquez - C, Hernandez - CF | Bench: Plawecki, Munoz, Arroyo, Wilson/Potts

Lineup v. LHP:
Verdugo - LF, Bogaerts - SS, Devers - 3B, JDM - DH, Dalbec - 1B, Renfroe - RF, Vazquez - C, Hernandez - CF, Arroyo - 2B | Bench: Dickerson, Villar, Munoz, Wilson/Potts
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I didn't expect the team to go from worst to first, but I'm disappointed by the failure to address the bullpen substantively to date My whole middle-class goal this offseason was bring in a 4 starter type (I really thought Lester was the guy) for a year for depth and then really add 2 or 3 really good bullpen arms...including one top shelf guy as their only major spend in the FA market. Not impressed with what they have brought in so far. Colome and Hand are my last hopes for anything more than a whole lot of dice rolling.
This is where I am at basically. I did not expect anything major, but something of any significance would be nice.
 

Sin Duda

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Last year's team had the worst winning percentage of any team since I was a year old (1965), and the second worst since 1932, which is before my now-deceased parents were born. We may have had the worst pitching staff in franchise history, certainly in the last 75 years. The team has made only very modest changes since last year and is pretty much entirely dependent on a return to health of Sale and Rodriguez and a return to form of JDM to avoid another catastrophic season.

I'm sorry but I find that hard to get excited about. YMMV.
Put me in the "excited for baseball to start" camp. Even during last year's outlier bad season, I enjoyed watching Dalbec hit dingers and the two rookie starters twirl a combined 4 great starts. Hope springs eternal!
 

allmanbro

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Kiké Hernandez rumors have circulated for over a month now so I figure that has a good chance to happen. My guess is he'd play CF more than 2B initially if they wanna give Arroyo a shot there. If that's true, then we're likely out on JBJ. They'd platoon well in CF but I don't think either would sign for a part-time job.

Two similar guys who have barely come up this winter are Jonathan Villar and Danny Santana. Villar had a terrible year after catching COVID but a fantastic one in the AL East in 2019, and there's some evidence that he too can play the outfield. He'd also address our glaring need for a backup shortstop. Santana was fantastic in 2019 and hurt in 2020, and seems to be a roughly average fielder just about everywhere on the diamond. He'd also be a good platoon/backup with Dalbec at 1B.

Say we trade Beni and Chavis for Rogers and Dickerson, then sign two of Villar, Santana, Profar and Hernandez. That would give us a bunch of lineup combinations to keep everyone healthy.

Lineup v. RHP:
Verdugo - RF, Bogaerts - SS, Devers - 3B, JDM - DH, Dickerson - LF, Dalbec - 1B, Villar - 2B, Vazquez - C, Hernandez - CF | Bench: Plawecki, Munoz, Arroyo, Wilson/Potts

Lineup v. LHP:
Verdugo - LF, Bogaerts - SS, Devers - 3B, JDM - DH, Dalbec - 1B, Renfroe - RF, Vazquez - C, Hernandez - CF, Arroyo - 2B | Bench: Dickerson, Villar, Munoz, Wilson/Potts
This is definitely and interesting idea. Hernandez may actually be better in center than I realized - fangraphs has his career UZR/150 there at 8.4, compared to JBJ at 6.3 and Springer at 1.8. Even if that seems too high, it's at least reason to think he would be more than serviceable as a regular or semi-regular starter there.

I've been wondering why no one seems to be discussing Wong as an option, but this might be enough to convince me Hernandez is the better fit.

For reference, Hernandez has 1109 innings in center, so basically one full season's sample, but spread out across the last 7 years.
 
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Manramsclan

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Second place again!

"Red Sox tried hard for Profar before he agreed with Padres " - Heyman

View: https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1352649599190761473?s=21
"Tried hard" is a hilarious phrase at this point in the offseason especially after Olney's tweet and the multiple reports of them being in on various FAs but not signing them. This sounds so much like a Sox mouthpiece telling Heyman, "We really tried hard to sign him!" followed by, "please quote me on that."

I like Profar as a utility player, but I think he is a better fit for the Padres backing up multiple positions rather than an everyday 2B. If they are going to sign a 2B going for upside with Semien seems like the best move. It also hedges against a Xander injury.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Red Sox were never going 3 years, I agree.

Overall I'm confused why so many reporters have been saying we've been close but no cigar on so many FAs. Chaim and co don't care what the fans think. So who in the organization is?
 

chawson

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Sox showing interest in Ozuna per this report.

Wishful thinking perhaps, but the Sox may be in a good position here. Signing Ozuna would push the Yanks and Dodgers and possibly the Mets (who are still in on Bauer, Hand, JBJ and others) over the tax threshold without other trades. Can’t see the Twins signing both him and Cruz, though they may lose him to the NL if there's a universal DH. The Brewers have a full outfield and were reportedly trying to shed payroll, but the DH could open a spot there too.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Not really sure this is the guy the Sox should be signing to 4+ year deals, but I guess it depends on the money
 

BaseballJones

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I dunno. He's 30, so you'd get him for his 30, 31, 32, and 33 year old seasons, which is fine. Last four years, his per-162 game averages:

162 g, 623 ab, 92 r, 179 h, 28 2b, 2 3b, 35 hr, 117 rbi, .287/.355/.504/.860, 129 ops+

So he's pretty good with the stick. Not so great in the field, but in Fenway he should be fine. Would add some thump to the lineup for sure.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I dunno. He's 30, so you'd get him for his 30, 31, 32, and 33 year old seasons, which is fine. Last four years, his per-162 game averages:

162 g, 623 ab, 92 r, 179 h, 28 2b, 2 3b, 35 hr, 117 rbi, .287/.355/.504/.860, 129 ops+

So he's pretty good with the stick. Not so great in the field, but in Fenway he should be fine. Would add some thump to the lineup for sure.
Geez, I dunno either. Using per-162 really gives too much weight to his uncharacteristically great 60 game sample from last season. And you’re including his only other really good year (2017), but not his ok-not-great prior 3.5 seasons. If he were progressively improving, it’d be one thing. But the St. Louis version of him was just a decent bat, bad glove guy.

Overall, yeah, he’s a good hitter, but not a JDM circa 2017 level bat. I’m hoping this is Bloom checking in on everyone and not wanting to see Ozuna go for nothing merely because he can’t field. Personally, I wouldn’t extend at all for him.
 

BaseballJones

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For sure he's nowhere near JD-level. Let's leave out 2020 and go with the previous four years then, and forget 162-game averages and just go with average season:

146 g, 559 ab 79 r, 23 2b, 3 3b, 28 hr, 94 rbi, .277/.339/.478/.816, 119 ops+

Still a pretty good hitter who probably would do well in Fenway.
 

johnnywayback

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Hernandez makes a lot of sense. He's good enough to play 2B regularly if Arroyo turns out to be a mirage, and he can back up Bogaerts in SS and play CF, neither of which anyone on our current bench can do.

This has to be it for Chavis, though. Let's say Arroyo is nominally the starting 2B. The bench is Plawecki, Hernandez, and Renfroe. You have two slots left. You would like to have another CF. You would like to have a LH bench bat who can play some 1B. Chavis is neither of those. So unless you can fill both those holes with one guy, there's no room to have Chavis kicking around.
 

BaseballJones

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Hernandez is...meh. Career numbers: .240/.313/.425/.738, 98 ops+. I mean, a little below average but not terrible. Pretty versatile. Not a bad guy to have on the team but he's not a guy we should be pumped beyond belief to get (if we get him). It's not nothing though.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Hernandez makes a lot of sense. He's good enough to play 2B regularly if Arroyo turns out to be a mirage, and he can back up Bogaerts in SS and play CF, neither of which anyone on our current bench can do.

This has to be it for Chavis, though. Let's say Arroyo is nominally the starting 2B. The bench is Plawecki, Hernandez, and Renfroe. You have two slots left. You would like to have another CF. You would like to have a LH bench bat who can play some 1B. Chavis is neither of those. So unless you can fill both those holes with one guy, there's no room to have Chavis kicking around.
Yeah, I agree. Oddly, Hernandez’s projections and Chavis’s are similar: averagish OPS, heavier on the slugging. Chavis has relative youth and cost on his side, Hernandez a longer track record and waaay better D. But it’s hard to see how they fit on the team, unless Hernandez starts in CF.

We actually seem to have a plethora of middling UT prospects: Chavis, Arrauz, Munoz. Maybe Arroyo, although he seems more limited defensively. All offer a slightly different mix of skills. None look like clear-cut starters. Hernandez is a step up from this group, although his hitting really has not been consistently good - just good for a super UT type.
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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Hernandez is...meh. Career numbers: .240/.313/.425/.738, 98 ops+. I mean, a little below average but not terrible. Pretty versatile. Not a bad guy to have on the team but he's not a guy we should be pumped beyond belief to get (if we get him). It's not nothing though.
Sounds like the theme of the off-season. I understand fans must be patient, but coming after last year's abomination, the drip-drip of incoming mediocrity has been tough.
 

JM3

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Red Sox were never going 3 years, I agree.

Overall I'm confused why so many reporters have been saying we've been close but no cigar on so many FAs. Chaim and co don't care what the fans think. So who in the organization is?
It might have more to do with the current organizational philosophy & they really do have the 2nd or 3rd best offer on all these guys - they just refuse to extend past that point & at least 1 other team consistently does.

Being in on everyone at your price allows you to get that person at your price, or at least make someone else pay that price or more. Agents can't be mad because they can always use the Red Sox' offer as leverage.

It's just diametrically opposed to the DD philosophy of "I want X, Y, & Z and those 3 only, how do we get them?"
 

E5 Yaz

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View: https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1352635698126458880?s=21


Sox showing interest in Ozuna per this report.

Wishful thinking perhaps, but the Sox may be in a good position here. Signing Ozuna would push the Yanks and Dodgers and possibly the Mets (who are still in on Bauer, Hand, JBJ and others) over the tax threshold without other trades. Can’t see the Twins signing both him and Cruz, though they may lose him to the NL if there's a universal DH. The Brewers have a full outfield and were reportedly trying to shed payroll, but the DH could open a spot there too.
Isn't Hector Gomez the reporter that our Yankee posters tend to disbelieve?
 

JBJ_HOF

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Gomez reported the same thing on January 8th and attributed it to some guy with 75 Followers
 

JM3

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"4-year and up multi-year contract" sounds redundant. Must be true.
 

chawson

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Isn't Hector Gomez the reporter that our Yankee posters tend to disbelieve?
Maybe, yeah. Gomez has 80k followers (including a lot of mainstream MLB reporters) and other outlets picked that up so I posted it, but then saw he advanced the the Castillo-to-Yanks trade buzz that didn't materialize. My apologies for sharing it if it's not up to standards, but I figure he's pretty well sourced in the DR.

Yeah, I agree. Oddly, Hernandez’s projections and Chavis’s are similar: averagish OPS, heavier on the slugging. Chavis has relative youth and cost on his side, Hernandez a longer track record and waaay better D. But it’s hard to see how they fit on the team, unless Hernandez starts in CF.

We actually seem to have a plethora of middling UT prospects: Chavis, Arrauz, Munoz. Maybe Arroyo, although he seems more limited defensively. All offer a slightly different mix of skills. None look like clear-cut starters. Hernandez is a step up from this group, although his hitting really has not been consistently good - just good for a super UT type.
I agree he's a better fit in CF. If that happens it'd be a fairly significant pickup. Not sure how much upside there is but a healthy Kiké is a pretty good player. He's also extremely likable.

Looking into his hitting a bit more, his numbers were brought down in his last full season (2019) when a hand injury seemed to affect his power. He was hitting .240/.311/.435 before injury in 354 PA, and put up a .232/.288/.337 line afterward (104 PA). He was not great in 148 PA last year, for whatever reason.

Put another way, Hernandez hit .249/.325/.455 -- good for a .329 wOBA, 108+ wRC -- from the start of 2018 until his hand injury in July '19 (816 PA). That's giving him a mulligan on his last 250 injury-related and COVID-season plate appearances, but if that's his true talent level, that's a solid CF. (By comparison, JBJ's line over 2018-19 was .312 wOBA, 90 RC+)
 

Dewey'sCannon

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MLB TradeRumors reporting this morning that Red Sox are one of the team interested in Ozuna:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/free-agent-notes-ozuna-semien-simmons-gregorius-miller-moreland-richards.html
This would obviously be a big addition, but is there really a fit here? With JD at DH, Ozuna has to play the OF, presumably LF. Would signing Ozuna necessitate a Benny trade? Or could they move Benny to RF (maybe platoon with Renfroe)?

Signing Ozuna would certainly seem to preclude bringing back JBJ, unless maybe they deal Benny, although I'm not sure whether that might still put us over the CBT threshold (assuming they are also going to sign Richards or another SP, and still need to sign a piece or two for the bullpen).

I'm both intrigued and puzzled by their interest in Ozuna - assuming it's legit (which, of course, it may not be, rumors being what they are).
 

sean1562

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How does Ozuna make any sense for the Yankees? That does seem like this agent is throwing "Oh, uh, the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox are interested! Better pay up or they will!" out into the media to leverage more cash for his client. I could see the Sox being interested since they have money to spend but of those 4 teams, I imagine the only one that has had any serious interest recently is Milwaukee.
 

OurF'ingCity

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How does Ozuna make any sense for the Yankees? That does seem like this agent is throwing "Oh, uh, the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox are interested! Better pay up or they will!" out into the media to leverage more cash for his client. I could see the Sox being interested since they have money to spend but of those 4 teams, I imagine the only one that has had any serious interest recently is Milwaukee.
Honestly I think this is the explanation for like 85% of the "Red Sox are interested in..." reports we've gotten this season. We even had a "Red Sox are interested in DJ LeMahieu" report which made no sense for a number of reasons.

I think Bloom probably is doing his due diligence on everybody and then other teams/agents are using that as leverage where necessary.
 

jose melendez

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View: https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1353776275245178883?s=21


No universal DH (for now).

I think things will start falling into place quickly after this. Depending on what Bloom's plan is, the odds of a Myers trade™️ just went up, I think, as did our odds of signing Ozuna if we’re actually in on that.

On the other hand, maybe the chances of a Beni trade go down?
Do we know what the expanded playoffs offered was? I'm pro-DH, but I'd reraise the mound to avoid a repeat of this year's playoff format.