they're not signing any QO player like Springer that would cost a draft pick. despite whatever they say they won't go all-out to contend in 2021, they're trying to set up the next run for probably the mid 2020s.
That may be true about the QO FA, but I doubt they're not looking to contend in an expanded playoff format, when they've already invested in Sale and have E-Rod for one more year.
I think this is exactly right re: qualifying offer. Signing a free agent that would cost a pick goes against everything Chaim has been telegraphing, doubly so for 2021 because of where Boston will be picking in the draft.
Think of it this way: Signing Springer costs Bloom a 2nd (39th-ish overall) and 5th rounder. But he
gains a valuable trade chip in Verdugo, an established very good and extraordinarily cheap outfielder, in a historic sellers' market for that kind of player. All he has to do is sign another cheap outfielder (Profar, Villar, Hernandez, Renfroe, Puig, Almora, Grossman, Pederson, Pillar...).
The way I see it, the pandemic has pushed more teams into austerity, so pre-arb Verdugo has an even greater trade market than he normally would. He'd still be a good long-term player for us (and I'm much more bullish on him than I was with Beni), but he's served one of his main purposes, which is to be an everyday right fielder making the league minimum in 2020 so we can get under the tax threshold.
Springer is also seeming a little underrated here. He strikes me as
pretty similar value to Anthony Rendon when he signed for 7/$245M a year ago -- a similar hitter at roughly the same spot on the defensive spectrum (though one we particularly need). The pandemic has changed that market (and we should adjust for Springer's age relative to Rendon's). Pundits are predicting Springer's contract to land around 4/$110 to 5/$125. That's JDM money for maybe 95% of JDM's bat, plus a lot of defensive value.