We're really not far away from contending, if Sale and Rodriguez are back and pitching well by June.
We'd also need Benintendi and JD to bounce back, a couple arms for the bullpen, and another solid starting pitcher.
If we bring back Perez and add another solid SP, we should be able to stay afloat until Sale and E-Rod are ready. Free agents include Tanaka, Quintana, Odirizzi, Stroman, Archer (and maybe Jon Lester, if the Cubs decline his option) among others.
We will need to be better at finding relievers than we were this time, as we got virtually nothing from the parade of arms we threw out there.
Right now, the pen is a weakness: Barnes, Darwinzon, Brasier, Weber, Valdez, Josh Taylor, and a cast of thousands of extras.
(Brewer was actually doing decently till his last 2 appearances, when he gave up 9 runs in 7.2 IP, got hurt, and never pitched again.)
Adding a new reliever who can handle high leverage innings and not walk people would be a big boost, as it would shove every other current reliever down a notch on the totem pole. Adding a second one would be perfect.
If Barnes and Darwinzon are your 3rd and 4th best relievers, you are way better than if they are your top 2.
I don't think we'll make many big moves this offseason. Sign a mid-level starter to a relatively short term deal, and add at least one reliever to pitch the 8th and 9th-- ideally 2 of them.
I'm sure we'll add a couple position players, but I doubt we spend big on that, or bring in anyone who will be guaranteed to be an everyday starter.
Good post, TGE.
Building on what you're saying, signing a FA with QO attached will cost us the #33 pick in the draft, which would not be at all ideal. We will have high picks and a big draft budget, so we really need to nail the draft top-to-bottom to rebuild this farm more than we need any particular FA. That has to be the priority for 2021.
A few things follow from this, I think:
Retaining Bradley makes some sense if the price is right. Sure, it would be fun to add Springer, but that would blow our new-found fiscal stability out of the water immediately and handicap our draft. A Wil Myers deal might be revisited, though, if SD ownership is still cash-strapped.
I would also hand Arroyo and Dalbec starting jobs to sink or swim, but we should probably add another bench infielder better than Lin or Chavis to supplement them.
FA signings of relievers might make sense, as they don't generally get QO'd. I was actually wondering if a Workman reunion could be in order, after his terrible stint in Philadelphia. There are a bunch of good arms available, though: Tony Watson, Trevor May, Trevor Rosenthal, Shane Greene. And some fascinating potential projects: Blake Treinen was good but not great for LAD this season, but has such a high ceiling. The idea would be to have something like FA, FA, Barnes, Valdez, Brazier, Tapia, and then whoever survives the coming 40-man roster purge.
I'm not expecting Bloom to add a better SP than Eovaldi. We have Sale and Rodriguez coming back (*crosses fingers* *touches wood*). What we need is another 150 acceptable innings. So I might aim to both retain Perez and bring in another SP with an eye more to quantity than quality. I would also like to see Hernandez try again in the rotation at the beginning of the year.
I'm assuming neither Rodriguez nor Sale will be ready for Opening Day, but that they will likely become available sometime in the first half. I'd want to start with a rotation of Eovaldi/Perez/Pivetta/FA (Collin McHugh?)/Hernandez, with Houck working on that third pitch in Worcester, along with Mata and Seabold, and Groome and Ward in Portland. That's actually a pretty deep assortment of actual high minors prospects. Then, the hope would be that Rodriguez and Sale return in May and June, and we end up with something like Sale, Rodriguez, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck, with Hernandez reinforcing the bullpen. If everyone's healthy — they won't be — Pivetta still has an option, and either Perez or McHugh will be on expiring deals and can be dealt or pitched in relief as makes sense.
Hopefully, that's a team that can contend for a Wild Card, and is both well-positioned to incorporate younger players and actually has some to incorporate.