Might as well start talking about 2021

billy ashley

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looking at that sortable table, Fangraphs really believes in the offense (again, I think this is sensible) and thinks the pitching will be middle ground. I'm skeptical on the latter.
 

nvalvo

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looking at that sortable table, Fangraphs really believes in the offense (again, I think this is sensible) and thinks the pitching will be middle ground. I'm skeptical on the latter.
Even granting all that — the computer doesn't really understand the full set of circumstances surrounding, say, Sale, Rodriguez, and Eovaldi, and who knows what adjustments they had to make to accommodate the weird 2020 season — I don't see how that vaults us into first place.

Isn't that also true of the Yankees — good pitching (17.7 WAR, without Tanaka or Paxton), great lineup (22.4 WAR, without LeMahieu) — except that they look to be deeper on both sides of the ball? By my math that makes NY ~6 wins better, and that squares much better with my sense of the world.

I know it's sort of pointless to quibble about projections before we even have real rosters, but I guess I'm anxious for news.
 

EricFeczko

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Even granting all that — the computer doesn't really understand the full set of circumstances surrounding, say, Sale, Rodriguez, and Eovaldi, and who knows what adjustments they had to make to accommodate the weird 2020 season — I don't see how that vaults us into first place.

Isn't that also true of the Yankees — good pitching (17.7 WAR, without Tanaka or Paxton), great lineup (22.4 WAR, without LeMahieu) — except that they look to be deeper on both sides of the ball?
By my math that makes NY ~6 wins better, and that squares much better with my sense of the world.

I know it's sort of pointless to quibble about projections before we even have real rosters, but I guess I'm anxious for news.
I think depth is a big separation for the red sox here. I wouldn't be surprised if that distribution for that projection is wide and weird. 7.6 of the projected 13.1 pitching WAR is distributed to Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Nathan Eovaldi -- yet they are only projected for 415 of the 1458 or so innings pitched, and (like in 2020) there are no replacements for them.


The offense has a similar top-heavy problem -- though consistent performance from players like xander have not made it as noticeable.
 

jon abbey

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New FanGraphs 2021 projections are out, and... they weirdly love the Red Sox? (Also the Angels...)

Padres .590
Dodgers .579
Mets .560
Astros .541
Red Sox .541
Yankees .539
Braves .538
Athletics .529
Angels .528
White Sox .528

Does anyone know what 2021 Red Sox roster they're projecting to tie the Yankees for the AL East crown? Are they projecting us to sign a bunch of starting pitching? Has some spreadsheet somewhere decreed that Tanner Houck is an ace? Matt Andriese, 2021 Cy Young award winner?

The numbers don't appear to square with the FanGraphs depth chart projections, which have our current roster worth 34 WAR, or .500ish, on the strength of 21 WAR from the hitters and 13 and change from the pitchers. That seems much more realistic to me, and closer to our general sense that we have a pretty strong position player group, but a mediocre pitching staff unless everything goes perfectly healthwise.
They seem to have fixed this (plus NY signed DJ/Kluber). :)
 

scottyno

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Fangraphs has the sox winning 86 games, which really doesn't seem that out of line when you consider that they're giving them 312 innings between Eovaldi and Erod and 105 innings from Sale. If they actually get 400+ innings from those 3 I don't see why they can't contend for a wild card spot. The lineup is still very good, especially when you consider that it was good without even getting anything from jdm or benintendi last year.

Now whether they actually get that is the question, but you really can't ask a projection system to somehow try and determine what erod's health will be or if the sox hold sale back longer than normal.
 

judyb

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CarolinaBeerGuy

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make Pedeythe next Remy Even if Nesn needsto pay him asmuch money as is in his sox contract
That isn’t how MLB contracts work. Also, based on your most recent posts, I think your space bar is broken.

Jarren Duran'sthread title onsox prospects is Hungry like the wolf, That might be what convinced himto make that hiswalkup song when he got promotedt to portland seadogsin 2019
Heseems to be aclose to
theage when his kids grand parents are getting somuch older that becomes more important to movecloser to them'
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I know many folks around here are skeptical about their chances to compete even for a wild card this year (and I think we're still at least one solid SP and a couple of bullpen pieces away), but I think they should really be considering Springer.

From MLBTrade Rumors today:

Earlier this month, SNY’s Jim Duquette said in a television segment that the Jays had offered Springer a five-year deal that checked in south of his $150MM asking price. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman pegged the offer in the $115MM range yesterday (video link), noting that the Mets’ best offer has been believed to be in that same ballpark.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/blue-jaus-rumors-making-push-george-springer.html
I'm the going price is 5/115, I'd be in, even though it means sacrificing the draft pick. I think anything up to 5/125 is reasonable. I wouldn't try to outbid the Blue Jays or Mets, but if we're in the ballpark on the offer he just might choose Boston, as proximity is said to be at least a factor in his decision.
 

grimshaw

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I love Springer and think 5/115 is reasonable and non crippling, but the Sox badly need impact prospects and I just don't want to give up that high 2nd rounder (34th overall). If Springer was a legit superstar still in his 20's and the Sox had few other question marks then sure I'd be all in. But I think they can upgrade the offense enough without giving up picks.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Someone else compared Springer to Rendon, and they‘re in a similar ballpark as players. Maybe Rendon (who was a year+ younger) is a half-step better, but he got 7/$245M last year. If Springer goes for 5/$125M, that’s a huge relative bargain.

That said, I don’t think the Sox will go there. They’d lose the #34, as Grimshaw notes, and they’d likely be using up the cash that could be otherwise available to steal a prospect in another team’s salary dump. Plus they still need more pitching.

I’m sure it’s tempting, but let’s see what he ultimately goes for. I think he ends up getting close to that $150M.
 

Randy Red Sox

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Why are we even discussing Springer?? There is ZERO chance the Sox are signing him and I agree with that decision. Springer is 31 years old and will command likely a 5 yr deal at least 125 million and cost our 2nd round pick.. He is a great player but he won't put the Sox into contention and he is WAY WAY WAY over what the Sox are paying these days. Henry and Bloom will not come out and say it but 2021 is ANOTHER bridge year for the Red Sox. Bloom has clear instructions from Henry not to sign any of these long term type FA deals. Sox will be looking for a bargain in pitching along the lines of Sanchez, Teahren, and Matt Moore along with other low cost pitching options. Then when they are out of contention by the deadline Bloom will look to deal the likes of Eovaldi, JDM, and Vasquez for prospects. This is ALL ABOUT rebuilding the Sox through the farm and keeping the payroll down. Anyone who thinks any different is simply deceiving themselves. I only wish John Henry would come out publicly and have the jam to admit this to the loyal Red Sox fans.
 

DeadlySplitter

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And it's over, Blue Jays ponied up 6/150. And I agree, never a chance. Glad he's finally signed, maybe Benintendi market moves.

I think if everything goes right with ERod and Sale, they could contend this year. But they're looking towards 2022-23 when hopefully the farm is top half of the league again. It kinda sucks since X is at his prime right now and might opt out, but that's again the Red Sox' fault for drafting so bad lately.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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And it's over, Blue Jays ponied up 6/150. And I agree, never a chance. Glad he's finally signed, maybe Benintendi market moves.

I think if everything goes right with ERod and Sale, they could contend this year. But they're looking towards 2022-23 when hopefully the farm is top half of the league again. It kinda sucks since X is at his prime right now and might opt out, but that's again the Red Sox' fault for drafting so bad lately.
Can you explain what you mean by this? What is your definition of lately, and have they really drafted so badly?
 

scottyno

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Why are we even discussing Springer?? There is ZERO chance the Sox are signing him and I agree with that decision. Springer is 31 years old and will command likely a 5 yr deal at least 125 million and cost our 2nd round pick.. He is a great player but he won't put the Sox into contention and he is WAY WAY WAY over what the Sox are paying these days. Henry and Bloom will not come out and say it but 2021 is ANOTHER bridge year for the Red Sox. Bloom has clear instructions from Henry not to sign any of these long term type FA deals. Sox will be looking for a bargain in pitching along the lines of Sanchez, Teahren, and Matt Moore along with other low cost pitching options. Then when they are out of contention by the deadline Bloom will look to deal the likes of Eovaldi, JDM, and Vasquez for prospects. This is ALL ABOUT rebuilding the Sox through the farm and keeping the payroll down. Anyone who thinks any different is simply deceiving themselves. I only wish John Henry would come out publicly and have the jam to admit this to the loyal Red Sox fans.
I highly doubt that it's henry telling bloom not to spend money and more the other way around of bloom not seeing any high priced free agents that he thinks are worth signing right now. But I know that doesn't fit the narrative of the ownership group that spent as much as anyone all of a sudden turning cheap overnight.
 

jon abbey

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OK, I have been waiting for a Sox fan mod but I can't watch this anymore. Bye bye bye RRS.

(edit: I deleted most of the back and forth, sorry to the posters who took time to write considered answers.)
 

CR67dream

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Well, he was given every guidance and chance to turn things around, and listened to none of the good advice he was given from many posters. There comes a time when any further attempts become obviously futile. I try to give newbies time to feel the place out but that was the wrong call on this one.
 

jon abbey

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I do think it is time to start a dedicated Chaim thread, there's starting to be a track record there now. I think the situation he came into, it would be unfair to not see his plan through for a full four years but personally I was surprised he didn't manage to end up with more pitching after the endless audition of 2020 (maybe he would have in a full season). Pivetta being good could change that though, I like that roll of the dice.
 

mauf

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Toronto just made competing in 2021 even harder by signing Springer - man the AL East is relentless.
Honestly, I love the signing ... as a Red Sox fan.

Life would be easier if we weren’t in a division with two other big-market teams. Given that the Jays have the resources they have, however, I’m delighted to see them commit $120M to a guy who is never getting into Cooperstown without buying a ticket and plays a position where the Jays have gotten solid production on the cheap the past two seasons. Springer is likely to be a poor use of the Jays’ resources, especially by the time the Sox are ready to contend again (which I don’t think will be 2021).
 

pdub

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Yeah, agreed with the above re: Springer. Very good player and certainly makes the Jays better, but I still don't think their rotation carries them where they want to go. Tampa is sure to get worse and Baltimore will likely be mediocre as usual, so I think we are in an okay space if we want to rebuild and take our time.
 

allmanbro

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Honestly, I love the signing ... as a Red Sox fan.

Life would be easier if we weren’t in a division with two other big-market teams. Given that the Jays have the resources they have, however, I’m delighted to see them commit $120M to a guy who is never getting into Cooperstown without buying a ticket and plays a position where the Jays have gotten solid production on the cheap the past two seasons. Springer is likely to be a poor use of the Jays’ resources, especially by the time the Sox are ready to contend again (which I don’t think will be 2021).
Oh I agree that it helps the Sox in a couple years, but not for 2021. I was never that interested in Springer, and am glad they didn't go for him. It's a good point that the Blue Jays have so much young talent that their window was likely to overlap with the next Sox window, so its OK if they try to pull their window forward a bit.
 
Someone else compared Springer to Rendon, and they‘re in a similar ballpark as players. Maybe Rendon (who was a year+ younger) is a half-step better, but he got 7/$245M last year. If Springer goes for 5/$125M, that’s a huge relative bargain.

That said, I don’t think the Sox will go there. They’d lose the #34, as Grimshaw notes, and they’d likely be using up the cash that could be otherwise available to steal a prospect in another team’s salary dump. Plus they still need more pitching.

I’m sure it’s tempting, but let’s see what he ultimately goes for. I think he ends up getting close to that $150M.
You were definitely right about him getting close to his mark, but is he really that close to Rendon? Similar ballpark maybe, but I'd say Rendon is not just a half-step better. Springer was great in 2019 with 6.5 fWAR and very solid last year with 5.14 fWAR per 600 PA. Before that though he put up seasons of 2.9 and 4.5 fWAR. Meanwhile Rendon clocked in at 6.7, 6.2, 7.0 fWAR in 2017-2019 and 6.98 fWAR per 600 PA in 2020. So that's something like 19 fWAR vs. 27 fWAR over 4 years. Going based on projections depending on the system you look at Rendon is projecting at about a win to a win and a half better.

Regardless, I'm also happy that the Sox didn't pay this price. 6/150 will look like a bargain if the Jays get a couple of 6 win seasons out of him, but if he ends up being closer to a 4-5 win player for the first two years and then a 1-3 win player over the rest it doesn't look so great. There's certainly upside there, but the Jays are a lot better positioned to benefit from that upside than the Sox are, and the Sox would likely suffer more than the Jays in the downside scenario.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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You were definitely right about him getting close to his mark, but is he really that close to Rendon? Similar ballpark maybe, but I'd say Rendon is not just a half-step better. Springer was great in 2019 with 6.5 fWAR and very solid last year with 5.14 fWAR per 600 PA. Before that though he put up seasons of 2.9 and 4.5 fWAR. Meanwhile Rendon clocked in at 6.7, 6.2, 7.0 fWAR in 2017-2019 and 6.98 fWAR per 600 PA in 2020. So that's something like 19 fWAR vs. 27 fWAR over 4 years. Going based on projections depending on the system you look at Rendon is projecting at about a win to a win and a half better.

Regardless, I'm also happy that the Sox didn't pay this price. 6/150 will look like a bargain if the Jays get a couple of 6 win seasons out of him, but if he ends up being closer to a 4-5 win player for the first two years and then a 1-3 win player over the rest it doesn't look so great. There's certainly upside there, but the Jays are a lot better positioned to benefit from that upside than the Sox are, and the Sox would likely suffer more than the Jays in the downside scenario.
Just for completeness, bWAR has them much closer: Rendon at 31.2 WAR over 8 seasons, Springer at 27.5 over 7.
 

Earthbound64

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OK, I have been waiting for a Sox fan mod but I can't watch this anymore. Bye bye bye RRS.

(edit: I deleted most of the back and forth, sorry to the posters who took time to write considered answers.)
Thank you.

Well, he was given every guidance and chance to turn things around, and listened to none of the good advice he was given from many posters. There comes a time when any further attempts become obviously futile. I try to give newbies time to feel the place out but that was the wrong call on this one.
I know it's a discussion for another board - feel free to move it there - but, when and why was the decision to go this path made?
 

jon abbey

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I know it's a discussion for another board - feel free to move it there - but, when and why was the decision to go this path made?
There is a 'dope' forum where all mod actions are logged, and discussed if needed. It's only visible to 'dopes'.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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So the market for Springer went from a reported 5/115 to the 6/150 he got. Maybe Toronto overpaid - we'll have to see how that works out - but understandable that the Sox were out at that price, especially given the loss of the pick. And Toronto is certainly better positioned to take on that commitment given all the young/cheap players on their roster. But it also gives Toronto a pretty strong lineup over the next several years, and makes it more difficult for the Sox to compete with them over this period.

So where do the Sox go from here? It would seem that JBJ is really a priority, if not a necessity - I wouldn't want to put all our eggs in the Jaren Duran basket, as I think he's not ready yet and there's still a significant risk he never amounts to more than a 4th OF. And if we put Verdugo in CF, we weaken the RF defense and we probably need another OF (two if Benintendi is traded).

It's unclear if the Mets or Houston are still in on JBJ given their recent acquisitions, but JBJ is clearly in a pretty good bargaining position as really the only clear CF option left on the market. I'm sure the Sox would prefer to offer only a one or two-year deal, but maybe there's a three year deal out on the market.

Although I didn't expect them to be legitimate WS contenders in '21, I thought that, with the right moves, they could at least be competitive for a playoff spot this year. But over the past week, I've become a bit less optimistic about this. Sam Kennedy said that while they are not going all-in for '21 (no kidding), they still expect to be competing for the playoffs. I think they not only need to say that, but to actually be competitive. If not, they will alienate the fanbase - I'm certainly less inclined to watch games for a 75-win team than for an 85-win team.

I expect there are still moves to be made. As I (and others) have said before, they still need a mid-rotation SP and a couple of bullpen pieces, plus JBJ or another OF. Odorizzi and Richards (and maybe Paxton) look like the best remaining SPs, so hopefully they can get one of them without a long-term commitment. There are still a number of RP options out there, but these are dwindling by the day, so they may need to move quickly on that. I've certainly been willing put my faith in Bloom to make the right deals in putting the roster together - and I certainly don't think it's a matter of him or the Red Sox being "cheap" or unwilling to spend (I don't think he was brought in to make the Sox like the Rays, but more like what Friedman has done with the Dodgers). But as all the FAs come off the shelves, I am getting a little worried about being left with the dregs, or at least the lesser options. We'll see if Bloom's patience pays off.
 

BaseballJones

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Right now, here's what I think we're looking at:

C - Vazquez
1b - Dalbec
2b - Chavis
3b - Devers
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Benintendi
CF - ??
RF - Verdugo
DH - Martinez
Bench - Plawecki, Peraza, Arroyo, Arauz, Renfroe

SP - Sale (IL), Eovaldi, Rodriguez, Pivetta, Andriese (Mazza in for Sale to start the year?)
RP - Barnes, Brice, Valdez, Brasier, Hernandez, Walden, Brewer (then guys like Houck and Seabold possibly)

Huge hole in CF still. 1b is uninspiring. If Benintendi stays and gets back to what he was his first two years, the offense should be fine (actually, a lot rides on JD's return to form). And I like Eovaldi and ERod, but right now the rest of the rotation is yuck. And the bullpen....yikes. Not liking it at all, UNLESS Barnes gets back to 2017-2019 form, Hernandez takes another step forward, and one of the other guys emerges.

But this....isn't a very good team.
 

amRadio

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If they're not going to bolster the pitching staff I really hope they find out what they have in Houck/Seabold/Mata this year. Using them out of the bullpen wouldn't be as useful as seeing how their skill set plays going through an MLB lineup multiple times.
 

BaseballJones

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Not that this matters one way or the other, but I think Peraza is with the Mets.
Oh ok. CBS sports' web site needs to update things then.

And maybe @Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat is right about Arroyo. Either way...we aren't talking about a division champ here. Especially if the pitching is as bad as I think it might be.

On the other hand...

If Rodriguez is back and better than ever, and Eovaldi does what we think he's capable of, and Sale returns and is dominant Sale, then the pitching staff looks a lot better. But that's a lot of "if"s.
 

billy ashley

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If they're not going to bolster the pitching staff I really hope they find out what they have in Houck/Seabold/Mata this year. Using them out of the bullpen wouldn't be as useful as seeing how their skill set plays going through an MLB lineup multiple times.

I'm gonna guess that major league pitcher workloads are going to be vastly different in 21 (as they were in 20) from what they were pre pandemic. Depth likely matters a ton, this year.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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They really need to address the pitching staff. As things stand, they're relying on two of Pivetta/Houck/Seabold/Mata. I'm willing to ride with someone from this group filling one rotation slot at least until Sale is ready, but I think relying on two from this group is too much to expect, especially at the start of the season. We need another starter - preferably on a one or two year deal (so as not to commit too much money and also not to block these or others that may be ready by '23, such as Song or Groome).
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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The "if" I'm the most confident in is JDM returning to form. He's such a creature of habit, I just don't think he ever adjusted to the crazy season. I don't think there is any real reason to believe that he has permanently fallen off of a cliff, and that 2020 is his new normal. I'm not worried about the offense at all. I'm very interested to see what Bloom does with the pitching staff, as there are interesting pieces, but too many holes.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Oh ok. CBS sports' web site needs to update things then.

And maybe @Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat is right about Arroyo. Either way...we aren't talking about a division champ here. Especially if the pitching is as bad as I think it might be.

On the other hand...

If Rodriguez is back and better than ever, and Eovaldi does what we think he's capable of, and Sale returns and is dominant Sale, then the pitching staff looks a lot better. But that's a lot of "if"s.
They're definitely not a division champ in current form, and frankly I don't see what signings they could even make at this stage to get them there absent a blockbuster trade out of left field. I think the question for this season is more whether this is another total rebuilding season where we continue to trade away older ML talent for younger assets (JDM is an obvious trade-deadline candidate if he returns to form this year but the Sox suck overall) or whether they can "pull a Rays" and cobble together a wild card spot contender and hope they get hot at the end of the year/in the playoffs.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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They're definitely not a division champ in current form, and frankly I don't see what signings they could even make at this stage to get them there absent a blockbuster trade out of left field. I think the question for this season is more whether this is another total rebuilding season where we continue to trade away older ML talent for younger assets (JDM is an obvious trade-deadline candidate if he returns to form this year but the Sox suck overall) or whether they can "pull a Rays" and cobble together a wild card spot contender and hope they get hot at the end of the year/in the playoffs.
I'm with you on the team's prospects and best case scenario. In a division with the Jays loading up, the Yankees being the Yankees, and the Rays always finding a way to contend, winning the division is a tall task even in the best of circumstances. I think the Red Sox have plenty of talent, though some of it is shrouded in question marks (Martinez, ERod, Sale, Eovaldi). They're going to score runs even if they don't add any more significant offensive pieces. They have the potential for a decent pitching staff.

Obviously they need to add more and they will, but it's not exactly a dire situation.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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They really need to address the pitching staff. As things stand, they're relying on two of Pivetta/Houck/Seabold/Mata. I'm willing to ride with someone from this group filling one rotation slot at least until Sale is ready, but I think relying on two from this group is too much to expect, especially at the start of the season. We need another starter - preferably on a one or two year deal (so as not to commit too much money and also not to block these or others that may be ready by '23, such as Song or Groome).
At the rate things are going, they're probably not relying on two of those guys - they're going to churn their way through them all just like last year, hoping to ride a hot hand or see one or two of them suddenly develop. There will probably be other flotsam given the ball as well, plus the inevitable openers.

Hard to be excited about the season right now, that's for sure.
 

bohous

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Right now, here's what I think we're looking at:

C - Vazquez
1b - Dalbec
2b - Chavis
3b - Devers
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Benintendi
CF - ??
RF - Verdugo
DH - Martinez
Bench - Plawecki, Peraza, Arroyo, Arauz, Renfroe

SP - Sale (IL), Eovaldi, Rodriguez, Pivetta, Andriese (Mazza in for Sale to start the year?)
RP - Barnes, Brice, Valdez, Brasier, Hernandez, Walden, Brewer (then guys like Houck and Seabold possibly)

Huge hole in CF still. 1b is uninspiring. If Benintendi stays and gets back to what he was his first two years, the offense should be fine (actually, a lot rides on JD's return to form). And I like Eovaldi and ERod, but right now the rest of the rotation is yuck. And the bullpen....yikes. Not liking it at all, UNLESS Barnes gets back to 2017-2019 form, Hernandez takes another step forward, and one of the other guys emerges.

But this....isn't a very good team.

You are missing Martin Perez in the rotation, which is significant but not a huge difference maker. They still need to add at least 1 more SP.
I'm in the re-sign JBJ camp. It stabilizes the OF situation and going defensive is a good way to help offset the weak pitching staff. If Duran looks ready to step in, that's a good problem to have. You have an asset to flip for another need.
 

BaseballJones

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You are missing Martin Perez in the rotation, which is significant but not a huge difference maker. They still need to add at least 1 more SP.
I'm in the re-sign JBJ camp. It stabilizes the OF situation and going defensive is a good way to help offset the weak pitching staff. If Duran looks ready to step in, that's a good problem to have. You have an asset to flip for another need.
Yep good catch. Completely blanked on Perez even though he was signed recently, and I even contributed to that thread. haha
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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You are missing Martin Perez in the rotation, which is significant but not a huge difference maker. They still need to add at least 1 more SP.
I'm in the re-sign JBJ camp. It stabilizes the OF situation and going defensive is a good way to help offset the weak pitching staff. If Duran looks ready to step in, that's a good problem to have. You have an asset to flip for another need.
I'm actually starting to feel optimistic about this team- yes.... lots of "ifs" but every team has them, just the Degree of Iffyness on the Sox is pretty high compared to the MFY's and other teams.
I'm betting Beni sticks and turns it around.... JDM rebounds. JBJ signs a 4 year deal. One of Pivetta, Seybold and Houk turn in a surprisingly very good year and make Bloom look like a genius. Team ends up around 88-90 wins, gets a WC slot and gets bounced out. A good year. Not great of course... but a good step forward into the future
 

pdub

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Jun 2, 2007
516
They really need to sign JBJ, like yesterday. We know his bat is wildly inconsistent but he plays great defense, plays hard, and is by all accounts a good teammate. We know what we are getting with him. This needs to get done. I feel like we could be a surprise wildcard contender if a few things go right.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
10,229
I really, really don't understand when people say this.

It's the Red Sox.
It's Baseball.

I'm always excited for each season.
Last year's team had the worst winning percentage of any team since I was a year old (1965), and the second worst since 1932, which is before my now-deceased parents were born. We may have had the worst pitching staff in franchise history, certainly in the last 75 years. The team has made only very modest changes since last year and is pretty much entirely dependent on a return to health of Sale and Rodriguez and a return to form of JDM to avoid another catastrophic season.

I'm sorry but I find that hard to get excited about. YMMV.
 
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azsoxpatsfan

Does not enjoy the go
SoSH Member
May 23, 2014
4,774
I think the offense will be very good. I'm very confident in JDM returning to form. I'm not that confident that Benni will be any good but even if he's just mediocre the offense should score a lot of runs. I mean X, Devers, JDM, and Verdugo is a pretty sick core group, and thats without even taking into account the possibilities of Dalbec, Vaz, and Benni having good seasons. With good pitching, the team would contend, and at least there's the general form of a good rotation there if you squint. Sale, Eddy, Eovaldi, Perez, Houck/Pivetta/Andriese could obviously be really shitty if Sale comes back later than expected and takes some time to get going, and Eduardo is rusty/unhealthy, and Eovaldi gets hurt. But if you get career average production out of the top three, and one of Houck/Pivetta/Andriese pans out (i'm super excited about Houck after last season--tied for the team league in wins!), then the rotation will be thin but good when healthy. As others have said, lots of ifs, but i dont think its fair to say this is a bad team. No team is going to look too good if you assume bad health for its top three starters.
 

azsoxpatsfan

Does not enjoy the go
SoSH Member
May 23, 2014
4,774
I'm actually starting to feel optimistic about this team- yes.... lots of "ifs" but every team has them, just the Degree of Iffyness on the Sox is pretty high compared to the MFY's and other teams.
I'm betting Beni sticks and turns it around.... JDM rebounds. JBJ signs a 4 year deal. One of Pivetta, Seybold and Houk turn in a surprisingly very good year and make Bloom look like a genius. Team ends up around 88-90 wins, gets a WC slot and gets bounced out. A good year. Not great of course... but a good step forward into the future
Would we even wang JBJ on a deal longer than maybe 2 years? Duran is going to be ready soon, and with Verdugo that only leaves one spot available in the outfield long-term. I'd take JBJ over Benintendi for a year, but long-term I'd prefer Benni. Of course it's a pretty good chance they don't have either of them to start the season.