Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez Free to Sign

Koufax

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Absolutely not.  Look what happened when they picked up Eric Gagne.  He was a defect and how did that turn out?  I may not know much about statistics but I know defects.  Stay away. 
 

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Frankly, having a young player available who is not going to be subject to spending limits is going to be an interesting situation now that teams have such limited opportunities for unfettered spending. This kid's (adult really, which is another interesting wrinkle) is probably going to blow up just because there's no other place to spend big on amateur talent.
 
It's also going to completely distort his value compared to other minor league players; sort of like the posting fee with DiceK.
 

Drek717

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The signing of Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez just before the deadline could be interesting. If you were Cherrington and had the choice between say Ronaudo or Barnes and Brentz or Swihart for Garza and the roughly $5M he'd make the rest of the season or take a bigger gamble and effectively treating Garza's remaining salary and the price of acquisition for two high level prospects as "savings" you could put towards signing Mag what would you do?

Most sites reference the scouting belief that with only a few ml starts Mag could be ready to be an impact starter at only 26. Signed long term. For only money. In the middle of a pennant race. I hope the team's current record and to this point tepid interest in the Garza market suggests a serious push coming for Gonzalez as our mid-season acquisition.
 

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Seems like signing Gonzalez would be a de facto decision to not resign Lester long term. Sox have an arsenal of young pitching en route and you'd have Buchholz, Doubront and Gonzalez in place already, leaving two long term spots for the kids to claim.
 

Drek717

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bosockboy said:
Seems like signing Gonzalez would be a de facto decision to not resign Lester long term. Sox have an arsenal of young pitching en route and you'd have Buchholz, Doubront and Gonzalez in place already, leaving two long term spots for the kids to claim.
That (extending Lester) is looking more and more like a non-option. Adding Gonzalez would also make some of that pitching depth expendable should someone like Stanton be available this off - season.
 

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Have the Red Sox really even been tied to Gonzalez, or are people just waiting to see if Ben also throws chairs?
 
I personally like the idea, but I wouldn't want them to do it with the idea that they can just pencil him in for 10 starts in August and September.
 

Valek123

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smastroyin said:
Have the Red Sox really even been tied to Gonzalez, or are people just waiting to see if Ben also throws chairs?
 
I personally like the idea, but I wouldn't want them to do it with the idea that they can just pencil him in for 10 starts in August and September.
 
The ESPN story this am  puts the sox in the running, not sure of sourcing.
 

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Good long piece on "Everything You Need to Know About Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez" back on July 2 from Mike Rosenbaum at Bleacher Report...
 
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1691271-everything-you-need-to-know-about-top-cuban-pitcher-miguel-alfredo-gonzalez
 
A few tidbits...
 
Gonzalez will sit comfortably in the 90-94 mph range with his fastball and bump 95-96 mph on occasion, and he generates considerable arm-side run when working down in the zone.
 
The right-hander’s secondary arsenal consists of a changeup and forkball, as well as a curveball from which he’ll add and subtract to create a variant shape. The one thing that concerns me about the changeup-forkball combination is that both pitches seem to share a velocity range in the high-70s/low-80s. While that speed is appropriate for his changeup, Gonzalez may be better off throwing the forkball with more velocity to improve its deception relative to his fastball.
 
 
After reporting earlier in the week that the Red Sox—including general manager Ben Cherington—had been scouting Gonzalez heavily, Knobler now says that the Dodgers want the pitcher “badly.”

 
He also said that he had heard potential contract estimates in the five-year, $60 million range for Gonzalez, though if a bidding war takes place between large-market teams such as the Angels, Cubs, Dodgers and Red Sox, he could conceivably receive something larger.
 
 
And a little video from the Tijuana Toros...
 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Py566m8xD6M
 

Soxfan in Fla

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Interesting video. Seems to have a nice fluid motion that looks pretty effortless. That curveball can be nasty and locates it well in the video. Overall good job of locating with his fastball. Lots of late swings on the fastballs registering 91-93 which lead me to believe that it's not easy to pick the ball up out of hs hand. Paid attention to that and it seems that might be the case, although the screen might have caused that. Made a kick save and a beauty as well. Lol.

After the Dice K experience I'm leery of throwing out huge dollars like this. That said, how is this guy getting around the international slotting system that was bringing signing bonuses in check. 5/60 or higher is a huge contract for someone who has never pitched in the US. It is clear the teams think he has ace potential and with talk of him joining an ML team this season they thing he has ace potential or close to it now. If this guy is #1 caliber getting him for something like 5/60 would be a steal or any team.
 

Drek717

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Soxfan in Fla said:
Interesting video. Seems to have a nice fluid motion that looks pretty effortless. That curveball can be nasty and locates it well in the video. Overall good job of locating with his fastball. Lots of late swings on the fastballs registering 91-93 which lead me to believe that it's not easy to pick the ball up out of hs hand. Paid attention to that and it seems that might be the case, although the screen might have caused that. Made a kick save and a beauty as well. Lol.

After the Dice K experience I'm leery of throwing out huge dollars like this. That said, how is this guy getting around the international slotting system that was bringing signing bonuses in check. 5/60 or higher is a huge contract for someone who has never pitched in the US. It is clear the teams think he has ace potential and with talk of him joining an ML team this season they thing he has ace potential or close to it now. If this guy is #1 caliber getting him for something like 5/60 would be a steal or any team.
I wouldn't compare him to Daisuke at all.  Not only are people talking about his entire contract value being only a little ways north of Matsuzaka's posting fee alone, Gonzalez also doesn't have the different ball size issue that Matsuzaka supposedly had to deal with, along with what would likely be an easier cultural transition since so many ball players (including Red Sox players) are of Latin American origin.
 
He isn't held to the international slotting system because he's 26, outside the age range it is applicable to (at least that's my understanding).  The oddity here is that the effects of the international slotting system are just being felt and suddenly a very promising pitcher who fits outside the rules is emerging at just the right time to tempt all the usual big spenders in the international market who've just felt their first "limited" international signing period.
 
As to why I think the Sox could have particular interest in Gonzalez at this point - if they aren't high on Garza or his asking price (and if that Texas rumor is true, I can't see Cherrington going even close to that level of compensation) Gonzalez makes a very good alternative deadline acquisition.  Add that they came in ~$900k under their N.A. amateur signing pool.  That they have all the increased financial flexibility post-Punto trade and that Lester's 2014 is a team option (and at only $13M likely pretty trade-able).  That they also hold a $500k option on John Lackey that would 1. greatly reduce his 2014 luxury tax impact and/or 2. make him incredibly trade-able if he continues to pitch remotely close to like he has this season.
 
All total the rotational flexibility is there.  The money is there.  The money is only even more available if they're seriously entertaining adding the ~$5M due Matt Garza the rest of this season or the ~$7M due Peavy this season and the $14.5M due next season (along with a 2015 player option if he hits innings targets.
 
So playing the hypothetical game, if the Sox think Gonzalez is a $10M a year pitcher for the next five years (and therefore wanting him at 5/$50M) they can effectively add the just under $1M saved in planned spending on N.A. amateurs to that pot, the $5M+ they planned on spending on a half season rental of another starter, and whatever value they'd attach to the prospects they'd have to surrender to get another starter and still effectively come out "neutral".
 
Of course, it's a big gamble on Gonzalez hitting the ground running as a #4 or better pitcher (since it loses a lot of value if he isn't in the post-season rotation) in the AL East or better by about mid-August, but then it's not much more of a gamble than trading for someone like Jake Peavy who's been up and down this season and has at least another $22M due over the next season and a half, with a $15M player option hanging out there if he stays healthy throughout 2013 and 2014.  Signing any starter to a long term deal is a risk, but most don't have the reward upside that Gonzalez presents, and most cost you something more than just money, at a time when you've got plenty to spare.
 
To me the added benefit of this is that while the Sox have a nice looking crop of young pitchers on the horizon, I don't think any (other than Workman maybe) are ready for big contributions in 2013, or that any should be inked in to the 2014 rotation.  Webster as the flexible 6th starter next year would strike me as ideal, RDLR still needs to get his innings count up post-TJ.  Barnes and Ranaudo are more likely late 2014 call ups who factor in to the 2015 mix.  Owens is even further off.  So Gonzalez in fact fits perfectly in the window they're leaving open, and a window in which he and Doubront could emerge as the #2 and #3 behind a healthy Clay, letting all these prospects be cheap #4/#5 options on a highly competitive team.  Not all of these young pitchers are going to be good ML starters.  If two of the lot are good starters I'd say we made out well.  Just so happens that we'll be able to free up two spots in the rotation over the next 2.5 years with the expiring deals of Lester, Dempster, and Lackey.  If we get lucky and three of them pan out I'm sure Doubront's last couple arb. years would have real value on the trade market.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Jesse Sanchez over at mlb.com has a piece up about Miguel Gonzalez.
 

The Cubs, Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox are among the teams that have expressed serious interest in signing the 26-year-old. The Phillies, Blue Jays and Braves are also in the hunt to acquire him.
 

Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig, who signed a seven-year, $42 million deal with Los Angeles last summer after he left Cuba, burst onto the scene last month and has thrust the Dodgers back into the spotlight. Puig, who is batting .391 with eight home runs and 59 hits in 38 games since his debut, is a big reason why the Dodgers have moved from last-place in the division to only 2 1/2 games behind the first-place D-backs in the National League West.
 
Using Puig's contract as a guide, where do we expect Gonzalez to end up?  He's not subject to the international signing pool team have because of his age and experience level, so he can sign a contract with no restrictions.  Is he looking at beating Puig's 42 million over 7 years?  Would you be comfortable with the Sox dishing that out for him?  I'd be fine with it.  Even if he ends up closer to Daisuke than Yu Darvish on the field, that's more than a fair price for what is essentially a free agent signing.
 
The piece also had some notes about additional Cuban players that may be available soon.
 

Right-handed pitcher Dalier Hinojosa, Gonzalez's teammate on the Cuban national team, was also cleared by OFAC this week and can sign with a Major League team. Several teams have expressed interest in the 27-year-old, but he is not expected to sign until after Gonzalez.
 
Hinojosa starred for the Guantanamo Indios in the Serie Nacional, the island's top baseball league, but is largely known for throwing a seven-inning perfect game against Sri Lanka in the World University Championships in August 2010, and a five-inning perfect game against Hong Kong at the International Cup less than three months later. A veteran on the international stage, Hinojosa was named to Cuba's preliminary roster for the 2013 World Baseball Classic.
 

Also, Cuban defector Odrisamer Despaigne, 26, a right-handed pitcher, had an open workout in Barcelona, Spain, almost two weeks ago and is in the process of petitioning for free agency. Cuban right-handed pitcher Leandro Linares, 19, was also cleared by OFAC and is free to sign with big league club. He falls under the new international signing guidelines because of his age and experience.
 
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130717&content_id=53983568&tcid=tw_article_53983568
 

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Depends on what the scouting reports say, of course, but that's a pretty reasonable number for a team with the cap room/money to spend.  You don't have to be all that good to be worth $10m as a starter, and if he turns out to be a stud it's a steal.  If he turns out to be another Irabu you're stuck, but even mediocrity can be subsidized and peddled out to another club to defray the contract.
 

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Last year there were 53 pitchers worth 10 million or more according to fangraphs.com.  Names right around the 10 million mark (9-11) were Jake Westbrook, Tim Hudson, CJ Wilson, Joe Blanton, Paul Maholm, Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Capuano, Phill Hughes, Edwin Jackson, Jon Niese, Yovanni Gallardo, Scott Diamond, Wandy Rodriguez, Joe Saunders, Josh Beckett, Ryan Vogelsong and Bronson Arroyo.
 
I'd throw 10 million a year at him without breaking a sweat.  I'm not sure how much higher than that I'd go to outbid the Dodgers, but I might go as high as 12 a year over 5 years on the bet that he's going to be a young pitcher who can hold his own at or near the front of a rotation.  When you get into the 12 million range last year you start seeing pitchers who were young with promise who took steps forward this year like Homer Bailey, Lance Lynn, Matt Moore and Ricky Nolasco.
 

JimBoSox9

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The rumors fit the logic that we're probably looking at a 5 year ceiling on the deal. Anything longer and he's starting to gamble with the value of his second contract. If the Dodgers are around 5/50, if I'm Cherington I dangle a shorter deal with a higher AAV (maybe 3/36) and sell him on the idea of getting a megabucks under-30 deal once he makes good.
 

dynomite

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I think the Marlins are missing out if they don't sign MAG.  I don't understand their organizational plan at the moment (perhaps because they don't have one?), but consider:
 
- The obvious Cuban connection for a team struggling to connect with the city and attract fans
 
- The Marlins paltry payroll, currently 2nd lowest in baseball ($50M according to Cot's)... and that's BEFORE Nolasco (and his $10M salary, representing 20% of their payroll) becomes a free agent after this year.
 
- The dearth of advanced pitching prospects in their farm system.  They're playing their AAA team in the Majors this season, so just about every other significant pitching prospect is at Single-A or below.
 
And, perhaps most holistically,
 
- A relatively low-cost, low-risk and yet splashy show of good faith to a fanbase that's still furious with last offseason's trade
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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I would think the Sox would make a big play for him only if they have a good idea that he's going to be a top of the rotation guy--how badly do they need another guy they think is going to be middle-back end quality?  It would be a pretty pricey depth/flexibility move.
 
 
 

And, perhaps most holistically,
 
- A relatively low-cost, low-risk and yet splashy show of good faith to a fanbase that's still furious with last offseason's trade
 
 
I think Marlins ownership has pretty amply demonstrated that they don't give a rat's ass about their fan base.
 

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Sign me up.  I've been looking at everything I can find about him and I love this option in comparison to overpaying for older FA's or trading talent for Garza type rentals.  If that 5/$50 is really what would win him I'd be all over that for the Sox.  Also like the shorter deal at higher AAV for both sides.
 

Drek717

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JimBoSox9 said:
The rumors fit the logic that we're probably looking at a 5 year ceiling on the deal. Anything longer and he's starting to gamble with the value of his second contract. If the Dodgers are around 5/50, if I'm Cherington I dangle a shorter deal with a higher AAV (maybe 3/36) and sell him on the idea of getting a megabucks under-30 deal once he makes good.
The deal will have to be 5 years I'd assume, so that by the end of it he's accrued the ML service time to be a true free agent, not arb. eligible.  At least I believe that's why deals like this are almost always 5+ years (see Matsuzaka and Darvish).
 

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Drek717 said:
The deal will have to be 5 years I'd assume, so that by the end of it he's accrued the ML service time to be a true free agent, not arb. eligible.  At least I believe that's why deals like this are almost always 5+ years (see Matsuzaka and Darvish).
 
They could simply agree to make him a non-tender free agent after 4 or 5 years or whatever.  I don't know if they can insert that into the contract, but they can certainly make a handshake deal to that effect at the very least.
 

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Jesse Sanchez ‏@jessesanchezmlb 22m
#Cuba RHP Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez update: Field has been narrowed to five teams and a deal could come down in next couple of days.

Jesse Sanchez ‏@jessesanchezmlb 17m
What's certain with M.A. Gonzalez: The price has gone up & number of teams has gone down. I imagine usual teams still in but can't guess.

Jesse Sanchez ‏@jessesanchezmlb 10m
#BlueJays, #Braves, #Cubs, #Dodgers, #Marlins, #Phillies, #Rangers, #RedSox, #Twins & #Yankees were among teams with serious interest in MAG
 
twitter.com/JesseSanchezMLB
 
Happy this will be concluded soon
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Rotoworld says the Dodgers are out:
 
 
Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reports that the Dodgers are not pursuing Cuban right-hander Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez.

The Dodgers have been considered one of the
favorites to sign Gonzalez, with one general manager recently telling
Peter Gammons of MLB.com that the club could be willing to go to five
years and $50 million, but it appears that they have backed out of the
running. The Braves, Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Phillies, Blue
Jays, Twins, and Marlins are among the other teams who have reportedly
shown interest in the 26-year-old right-hander. It's believed that he
could sign somewhere as soon as this week.
 
 
God damn I want this guy.  Get it done Ben!
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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@bradfo
Lucchino on @WEEI said looking at Cuban pitcher Gonzalez "pretty hard"
 
@bradfo
Lucchino confirms to @GerryCallahan @JohnDennisWEEI @kirkmin that pitcher Gonzalez represents ideal kind of acquisition: no cost but money
 
 
Granted, it's Lucchino running his mouth, but it's at least indicative that the Sox aren't staying out of the chase.
 

Drek717

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
@bradfo
Lucchino on @WEEI said looking at Cuban pitcher Gonzalez "pretty hard"
 
@bradfo
Lucchino confirms to @GerryCallahan @JohnDennisWEEI @kirkmin that pitcher Gonzalez represents ideal kind of acquisition: no cost but money
 
 
Granted, it's Lucchino running his mouth, but it's at least indicative that the Sox aren't staying out of the chase.
Lucchino might be a big mouth, but he's a big mouth who decides the budget, so him saying "no cost but money" or anything to that effect implies that the budget has ample room for them to splash the pot for Gonzalez, and that they greatly prefer that over a prospect expensive trade.
 
So the kind of talk I like to hear.  Get it done Ben and Larry, the sooner you sign MAG the sooner he gets some AAA starts in, is ready for the ML rotation, and we can use Workman to shore up the bullpen.
 

moondog80

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
@bradfo
Lucchino on @WEEI said looking at Cuban pitcher Gonzalez "pretty hard"
 
@bradfo
Lucchino confirms to @GerryCallahan @JohnDennisWEEI @kirkmin that pitcher Gonzalez represents ideal kind of acquisition: no cost but money
 
 
Granted, it's Lucchino running his mouth, but it's at least indicative that the Sox aren't staying out of the chase.
 Is this true?  I thought there was an international signing cap?
 

Corsi

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Red Sox president and CEO Larry Lucchino joined Dennis & Callahan on Thursday morning. Within the significant topic of conversation between the Lucchino and the hosts — pitching, pitching and more pitching — was Lucchino admitting that the Red Sox are interested in Cuban defector Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, a 26-year-old right-hander recently granted free agency by Major League Baseball.
 
Gonzalez has drawn interest from a number of teams, and his decision reportedly is down to just five. Lucchino said the Red Sox are looking at him “pretty hard.”
 
“There are a lot of clubs in baseball that have scouted him, to be sure,” Lucchino said. “He’s been on display in Baha California and now is available, after the appropriate approvals and licenses and whatever, so that the auctioning can begin.”
“The main drawback [of trading for a pitcher] for us would be giving up the prospects. … That’s the hard thing. Reaching into your pocket for your wallet is much easier,” Lucchino said. “We have some really talented young players in our minor league system, and Ben Cherington guards them like his first-born child. He really does want to grow this team internally. That is the most proven path to long-term success, but we all share that point of view.
 
“There are certain prospects that qualify to be trade bait, and other prospects that are so strong, so important to your future that you develop them to be cornerstones of your team in future years.”
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/07/25/larry-lucchino-on-dc-red-sox-looking-at-cuban-pitcher-miguel-alfredo-gonzalez-pretty-hard/
 

MakMan44

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I don't get the Marlins's interest, unless they're planning on flipping him in the next season or so. 
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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MakMan44 said:
I don't get the Marlins's interest, unless they're planning on flipping him in the next season or so. 
 
If it isn't to flip him, it's for cheap pub and spin.  They put on the show of pursuing Gonzalez to cater to their neighborhood (Little Havana).  Then when he inevitably goes elsewhere, they can blame it on the money and not being able to keep up with the big market teams because they're not selling out that theme park of a stadium.
 
Of course, it could also be that reporters have this habit of trying to connect players to cities based on ethnicity or birthplace, so by default every Cuban defector is associated with the closest team to Cuba geographically...much the same way guys like Cafardo like to put Ellsbury into all kinds of trade rumors with the Mariners because he's from the Pacific Northwest.
 

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Clubs that are in on Cuban pitcher Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez are giving off the vibe that the Red Sox are the favorite, because, more and more, they like the idea of spending the money on a guy they believe is big league-ready more than overpaying in prospects for just about any pitcher on the trade market. "This guy should pitch in the big leagues by September and take a regular turn in the rotation next year," one exec said. "Very impressive guy."
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings130726/calling-stiffer-ped-penalties-mlb
 

dynomite

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MakMan44 said:
I don't get the Marlins's interest, unless they're planning on flipping him in the next season or so.
As I said upthread, none of their pitching prospects are particularly close to the majors (Nicolino is 21 and in AA, DeScalafani is struggling in AA), and they're having trouble attracting fans in their second year in a new ballpark.

Also, Loria is insane.

(Apparently Loria is "hell-bent on winning in the near future – and proving that he made the right baseball decisions when he tore apart his roster.") http://marlinmaniac.com/2013/06/27/miami-marlins-will-not-trade-giancarlo-stanton-before-july-deadline/
 

Soxfan in Fla

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I'm not sure why anyone would ever willingly sign a long term deal with the Marlins with their track record.
 

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Soxfan in Fla said:
I'm not sure why anyone would ever willingly sign a long term deal with the Marlins with their track record.
 
Being Cuban, he might want to live in the city with the biggest Cuban population outside of Cuba rather than say, Boston.
 

dynomite

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Sure, but for 2 years you get to be rich and live in Miami.

I know it seems silly, but don't underestimate the allure of being rich and famous in a city that's built around beaches, beautiful weather, and beautiful people and in a state that doesn't charge personal income tax (see James, Lebron).
 

Brianish

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Jayson Stark today: 
 

• Clubs that are in on Cuban pitcher Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez are giving off the vibe that the Red Sox are the favorite, because, more and more, they like the idea of spending the money on a guy they believe is big league-ready more than overpaying in prospects for just about any pitcher on the trade market. "This guy should pitch in the big leagues by September and take a regular turn in the rotation next year," one exec said. "Very impressive guy."
 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rumblings130726/calling-stiffer-ped-penalties-mlb