Miguel Cabrera Getting 7+ year, $200M+ Extension

AbbyNoho

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http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24503261/cabrera-is-closing-in-on-extension-with-tigers
 


Miguel Cabrera and the Tigers are in agreement on an extension for the superstar slugger that will keep him with Detroit the rest of his career, sources told CBSSports.com.
The Cabrera deal is said to be for at least seven years and north of $200 million, according to people familiar with the talks. The deal is pending a physical, but that should be no problem for Cabrera who has a remarkable record for durability.
 
I hadn't heard anything about this, so it is a little surprising with him still having 2 years left on his current deal. Still, the most shocking part is remembering that he is only 30. I feel like he's been around forever. 
 

nattysez

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Woah...
 
https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/449313875482411008
 
https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/449314042193379328
 

CouchsideSteve

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Will reserve judgement until we see the final terms, but wow - this strikes me as completely unnecessary. Cabrera is entering his age-31 season and coming off back-to-back MVPs; his value has never been - and I would argue could never be - higher. He's obviously an historic talent and an incredibly well-rounded hitter, so I suspect he'll hit pretty well for a long time... but still, what's the rush to do this? Were those out years (33-?) going to cost that much more if he's as productive in 2014-15 as he was in the previous two seasons? Hard to imagine that. The deal presumably starts as he exits his prime, and it's hard for me to believe whatever discount the team received offsets the risk of of not getting to see 31 & 32, before paying for 33 and beyond.
 
Head-scratcher.
 
Edit: Seeing Crasnick's report - this strikes me as flat out insane.
 

Kliq

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Sure, Cabrera is probably the most consistent hitter over the last 5 years, but the same could have been said about Pujols before he got the big deal from LAA.
 

mpx42

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Maybe it's a "Mike Ilitch wants a title now and he doesn't give a fuck what happens in five years" kind of deal. Extending him at the peak of his value, when you don't have to, seems really silly to me otherwise.
 

nattysez

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Crikey
 
https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/449333690674712576
 
https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/449334107219431424
 

BoSox Rule

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With 2 years still left. He's already breaking down with injuries and he could be a Pujols-like shell of himself by the time he would have been a FA. Absolutely insane.
 

mabrowndog

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Just to be clear, the actual extension is 8 years, and will be added to the end of his current deal expiring in 2015. So in sum, he'll be under contract to DET for 10 more seasons for just under $300 million. Then tack on the vesting options.
 
Yup. Absolutely insane is about right.
 
Once Lester signs with the Sox, it'll seem like a minor league contract by comparison.
 

gammoseditor

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ESPN story says it's 8 years on top of the 2 he was already signed for, which is still a long ass time. It also says "a little under 200".  I'm guessing when the numbers come out, especially based on the option years, the extention is 8/240 and they're throwing the 10/300 out there to sound impressive. 
 
Still...a shitload of money.
 

BoSox Rule

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I know he's not completely comparable as a player but I cry myself to sleep from happiness every night that Pedroia signed for $110/8.
 

Toe Nash

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nattysez said:
Crikey
 
https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/449333690674712576
 
https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/449334107219431424
Well of course rival execs hate it; it makes re-signing their own stars that much tougher.
 
I guess the question is if there is a "bubble" or not regarding revenue, or if it's going to continue to rise for well, the next ten years. If a win continues to be worth less and less, the later years maybe aren't so bad. And there's little question that the next few years are going to be pretty good. Pujols is an interesting cautionary tale but he's really the exception rather than the norm, and Cabrera won't be changing teams or leagues and has overall been healthier I believe (Pujols largely stayed on the field until this year but was often fighting injuries).
 
I don't know, I don't like it but I think calling it the worst. contract. ever is way overboard. They're likely to get quite a bit of value from him.
 
Plus if he struggles they can always dump him on Texas.
 

Frank Fenway

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BoSox Rule said:
I know he's not completely comparable as a player but I cry myself to sleep from happiness every night that Pedroia signed for $110/8.
 
Well compare the expected wins added by said player per dollar spent 
 

radsoxfan

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When a team signs anyone to an extension 2 years before free agency, they have to assume they are getting a pretty substantial discount in terms of AAV or years versus the expected FA price. Otherwise, why do it and take the added injury/underperformance risk?
 
Miguel Cabrera was going to be a free agent after 2015, and would have been starting his age 33 season in 2016.  For this contract to make any sense whatsoever, the Tigers must be estimating that in that offseason, Cabrera would have commanded something in the neighborhood of a 9-10 year contract worth over 300 million.  Thats the only way this kind of 8/240+ extension makes even a little bit of sense.
 
Cabrera is great right now, and who knows how salaries will escalate in a few years, but that strikes me as a pretty high estimate for a 33 year old 1B/DH.  Feels very similar (at least as far as the flawed strategy) to the Ryan Howard extension.  Cabrera is of course WAY better than Howard, but the business decision makes just as little sense to me. 
 

BoSox Rule

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soxhop411 said:
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Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi
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The Cabrera contract happened because Mike Ilitch couldn't bear the thought of losing him -- and didn't care what it cost to keep him
He probably didn't even need to sign him to an extension and he never would have seen him leave he's like 110 years old. A 1 year extension would've made it impossible.
 

Sampo Gida

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Toe Nash said:
Well of course rival execs hate it; it makes re-signing their own stars that much tougher.
 
I guess the question is if there is a "bubble" or not regarding revenue, or if it's going to continue to rise for well, the next ten years. If a win continues to be worth less and less, the later years maybe aren't so bad. And there's little question that the next few years are going to be pretty good. Pujols is an interesting cautionary tale but he's really the exception rather than the norm, and Cabrera won't be changing teams or leagues and has overall been healthier I believe (Pujols largely stayed on the field until this year but was often fighting injuries).
 
I don't know, I don't like it but I think calling it the worst. contract. ever is way overboard. They're likely to get quite a bit of value from him.
 
Plus if he struggles they can always dump him on Texas.
 
 
So people said about Arods deal after he opted out.  This is far worse than Cano at 10/240. 
 
It may work out for them, it may not.  Just rolling the dice with 300 million. In the meantime they have to start the season with a replacement SS because they can't afford Drew.
 

glennhoffmania

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adam42381 said:
Giving a guy with a history of weight, alcohol and injury issues a 10 year deal is insane. Giving him nearly $300 million?! Holy fuck.
 
Injury issues?  He had one issue at the end of last year that was fixed.  His games played since he became a full time player in 2004:
 
160
158
158
157
160
160
150
161
161
148
 
The contract is nutty but we don't need to find false reasons to hate it.
 

Seabass

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I don't think he'd have gotten that extension on the open market in two years. Call it 8/240. Who gives him that deal in two years when he's about to turn 33?
 
He's elite and shown no sign of decline and is the second best hitter in the game. Superduper. There's no way to know what he'll be in two years, aside from waiting two years and seeing what he is then. That's what the Tigers should've done. 
 
Yeesh.
 

Sampo Gida

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glennhoffmania said:
 
Injury issues?  He had one issue at the end of last year that was fixed.  His games played since he became a full time player in 2004:
 
160
158
158
157
160
160
150
161
161
148
 
The contract is nutty but we don't need to find false reasons to hate it.
 
You can get away with the booze and weight in your 20's, but once you hit 30 it starts taking it's toll. 
 
Before Arods optout he had a run of 7 years where he missed 20 games.  The last 6 years, which is the first 6 years of that deal he has missed over 300 games, and he took pretty good care of himself.
 

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Frank said:
 
Well compare the expected wins added by said player per dollar spent 
 
Another fun way to think about this is to add the surplus value they get from spending the money Pedroia left on the table to Pedroia's production. So, like, let's say Sizemore has a great year--yeah, that's Pedroia.
 

inoffensiv philosophy

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This Tigers team could really be something if they lock up another young star. Verlander maybe. He only has six years left on his deal, and will be just 36 when it ends. Can you bear to lose him, Mike?????????
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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glennhoffmania said:
 
Injury issues?  He had one issue at the end of last year that was fixed.  His games played since he became a full time player in 2004:
 
160
158
158
157
160
160
150
161
161
148
 
The contract is nutty but we don't need to find false reasons to hate it.
I know he's been very durable, but he was clearly hurt last postseason and is coming off groin surgery this offseason. I'm sure he'll be fine. I'd definitely be more concerned about him breaking down due to weight issues over the next 5 years.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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Sampo Gida said:
 
 
So people said about Arods deal after he opted out.  This is far worse than Cano at 10/240. 
 
It may work out for them, it may not.  Just rolling the dice with 300 million. In the meantime they have to start the season with a replacement SS because they can't afford Drew.
This is inaccurate. They can afford the salary. Just don't want to cough up the first round pick and the draft pool money.
 

glennhoffmania

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Sampo Gida said:
 
You can get away with the booze and weight in your 20's, but once you hit 30 it starts taking it's toll. 
 
Before Arods optout he had a run of 7 years where he missed 20 games.  The last 6 years, which is the first 6 years of that deal he has missed over 300 games, and he took pretty good care of himself.
 That has absolutely nothing to do with saying that he has a history of injury issues.  And comparing him to one other player seems pretty pointless.
 

glennhoffmania

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adam42381 said:
I know he's been very durable, but he was clearly hurt last postseason and is coming off groin surgery this offseason. I'm sure he'll be fine. I'd definitely be more concerned about him breaking down due to weight issues over the next 5 years.
 
Totally agree.  I wouldn't sign that contract.  But I'm trying to look at the positives, and if anyone could possibly deserve it he'd be on the short list.
 

Bozo Texino

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Rudy Pemberton said:
If the Tigers could get Scherzer to agree to a deal close to the one he rejected, they would have ~$600M tied up in three players.

This is insanity. Do teams never learn? Cabrera is great but he's not going to get better as he gets older. Hard to see why the Tigers felt they had to make this move now. Even more curious after they (smartly) got out from under the Fielder deal.
 
That's the strangest thing to me.  They JUST sent Fielder to Arlington.  Why commit an insane amount of money and years to someone who is likely to begin experiencing a similar drop-off?
 
And why do it NOW?  Because Mike Ilitch "can't bear to lose him?"  He was under contract for two more seasons, for chrissakes.  This makes less and less sense the more I read about it.
 
We're going to see some absolutely bonkers FA contracts handed out in the next few years.  Criminy.
 

LondonSox

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So just look at what happens to Ryan Howard and throw any potential learning points out of the window.
 
2 years before free agency? Crazy
 
That said when all contracts look expensive to you, then maybe it's you not the contracts. I mentioned this in the Lester thread on contracts, but the money people are thinking they should pay on this board are out of date.
Also a farm is looking like an ever more valuable thing
 

Spacemans Bong

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Well, it's pretty obvious that baseball is insanely awash in money, and you can't grumble about 42% of the revenue going to the players while simultaneously grumbling about $300 million contracts to already signed players. Well, you can - I am - but it's not logically coherent.
 
To me there are three things to take away from this:
 
1) Mike Illitch can't bear to lose Cabrera? Gee Mike, if you didn't totally check out on the Tigers for the first 13 years of your ownership you wouldn't be signing players to insane contracts in the hope you might live long enough to see a title.
 
2) Dave Dombrowski isn't perfect by any means, but I can't imagine this was his call. He'll take the hit publicly but it must be annoying to see players go over your head for contracts.
 
3) There really is no excuse for any team not to be running a $100 million payroll is there?
 

Sampo Gida

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glennhoffmania said:
 That has absolutely nothing to do with saying that he has a history of injury issues.  And comparing him to one other player seems pretty pointless.
 
Just saying the lack of an injury history is not always a good predictor that one will not be injured as you get older, although an injury history may make that more likely.  The comparison just proves my point.
 

mabrowndog

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Nate Silver with some excellent big-picture perspective.
 
 
Cabrera’s market value is not the same as Cabrera’s economic value to the Tigers. It could be that free agents as a group are vastly overpaid, relative to the revenue they bring to their teams.
 
The average baseball franchise is now worth $817 million, according to Forbes. Loosely speaking, you need to be a billionaire to afford one. And there are a lot more billionaires than there used to be.
 
In a sense, the Tigers may be betting less on Cabrera’s performance and more on economic and regulatory conditions. If the number of billionaires continues to rise, Tigers owner Mike Ilitch (worth $3.6 billion) should find plenty of buyers should he sell the team down the line. Cabrera’s presence might make the Tigers a more attractive purchase — or if not, the liability might be modest as compared with the Tigers’ resale price.
 

Reverend

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I was joking with someone the other day about whether or not we thought Cherington laughed out loud when he heard about this contract.
 
On today's broadcast, Alex Speier was discussing the Lester contract situation and Cano's contract came up and Speier laughed during his answer.