Minor league thread 2022

Jed Zeppelin

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Aug 23, 2008
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Mayer went 3/4 with a 2b and bb.
Blaze 2/4 with his 4th HR in Greenville.
Lugo 1/4 with his 10th triple of the season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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100 PA samples are small enough to not be particularly meaningful; splitting them even further makes streaks even more prominent. I have no idea if Jordan can hit for power or not; but 50 PA doesnt really say anything - thats less than two weeks of games. Devers was awful for 3 weeks recently - what does that mean? Probably nothing.

These late season promotions arent about how guys do at the higher level - its all about setting them up to hit the ground running at that level next year,.
Not meant to be meaningful. It's what happened. It's news. Besides that, with 19 year old kids, 100 PA samples can be extremely meaningful.

Blaze Jordan didn't hit for any type of power after his first game. I didn't say it was predictable or meaningful. It's what actually took place.

edit: And besides that, we've been hearing for a year now that Jordan can't hit velocity.
 

burstnbloom

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Jul 12, 2005
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On the latest sox prospects podcast, Ian Cundall did a trip to greenville and saw Blaze and talked to some scouts about the velocity thing and the consensus was he had improved on that front. Encouraging news.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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On the latest sox prospects podcast, Ian Cundall did a trip to greenville and saw Blaze and talked to some scouts about the velocity thing and the consensus was he had improved on that front. Encouraging news.
I can't speak specifically to Greenville but there's a lot of encouraging stuff re: Blaze Jordan. The commitment to fitness, the low K%, hitting for contact. He hasn't hit for as much power as expected but he's still 19 and did just transform his body. His ISO in Greenville is .140 and in Salem it was .159. For someone with a 1b/DH projection, that will have to improve. He has plus raw power though, just has to find a way to tap into it.

On the downside, there's not much room for projection outside of his hit tool. With a better hit tool, the power comes into play. Plus, his K% jumped to 25.5% in Greenville (but it's only 107 PA). In Salem, it was 16.1%. That was one of his big question marks.
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David Hamilton is on a hot streak. Last 12 games: .419/.554/.744, 7xbh/3HR, 12bb/9k, 9sb/4cs. Season line is .240/.332/.397.

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Salem and Greenville are done for the year. Portland plays until the 18th + playoffs. Only guy in Greenville I could see moving to Portland is Lugo.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Portland vs Somerset is live on MLB TV tonight.
Sea Dogs up 4-0 batting top 2.
Ham with a leadoff double, SB (67), and scored on a Rafi basehit. Kavadas followed later with a two-run single. Dearden with a solo homer in the 2nd. Ham with a BB and another SB (68). Rafi now batting with two outs.
Edit: Rafi flies out to the warning track in CF.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Mata went 4.0 ip, 1 hit, 2r/2er, 5bb/7k yesterday.
Valdez went 2/5 with a double. His last 10 games: 45 PA, .381/.422/.762, 3bb/9k. 9 xbh/3HR. He's back up to .244/.324/.488 (.274 BAbip) in Worcester after falling to .173/.277/.346 (.185 BAbip). I don't know where I read it (possibly here) but he has a father who is absolutely obsessed with the strike zone and it's helped Valdez's game lot. Ok, I read it here, actually.

My dad gave me a call,” Valdez said through Worcester bench coach and translator Jose Flores. “He said, ‘You’re doing this and you’re taking your eye off the ball at the very last second. So just make sure you see the ball all the way to the point of contact and you should be able to control that better. "
"Once the season is over and I go back home, I wish I could do a lot more things but my dad is a baseball freak,” Valdez joked. “So he tells me I need to be at the ballpark and working out a lot. It’s constant baseball. That’s his job and his hobby as well."
For the year in AAA (including PCL): 313 PA, .273/.337/.528, .293 BAbip. 36 xbh/17 HR. 26bb/62k. 19.8% K%, 8.3% BB%.
Total in AA/AAA: 518 PA, .304/.387/.573, .344 BAbip, 63xbh/28 HR, 60bb/109k. 21.0% K%, 11.6% BB%.

He's actually striking out less in AAA than in AA, though he's walking less too. (22.9% K%, 16.6% BB% in AA). That's actually pretty encouraging. A lot of times the walks turn into Ks. Here, he's just putting the ball in play more but hasn't had much luck. Still haven't heard much about his defense but he does make the plays he gets to. His 28 HRs would place him 2nd in the Red Sox organization in HRs behind Nick Northcut, who did most of his damage in Greenville but has struggled mightily in Portland. 3rd is a tie between Kavadas, Devers at 26. and 5th is Binelas with 25, I think.

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Rafaela finished 3/5 with a K yesterday
Kavadas was 4/6 with 2 k.
Binelas was 3/6 with 2 doubles. Some BAbip luck.

Binelas for the year across A+/AA: 497 PA, .205/.307/.439, .239 BAbip, 63bb/147k. 47 xbh/25 HR. 29.6% K%, 12.7% BB%. .234 ISO
in AA: 238 PA, .163/.253/.380, .189 BAbip, 25bb/78k. 22xbh/11 HR. 32.8% K%, 10.5% BB%. .217 ISO.
His last 9 games: 40 PA, .324/.359/.595, .407 BAbip. 2bb/9k. 8xbh/1 HR.

He hasn't really been that much different in AA than A+ minus some brutal BAbip luck. In A+, his BAbip was .285. The power is definitely legit though. In AA, he has 12 singles, 10 doubles, 1 triple and 11 HR. Still youngish too. Not a total lost cause but he really needs to work on cutting down the ks.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Well, at least one player was promoted to Portland from Greenville. MR Jacob Webb. I haven't heard how hard he's throwing but at one point he was close to triple digits. Looking at updated reports, his velocity has rebounded to those levels.

He's pitched at 3 levels this year. Combined: 43 games, 3.23 era, 55.2 ip, 28bb/87k. 1.347 WHIP. 35.2% K%, 11.3% BB%.
last 19 games: 2.82 era, 22.1 ip, 3bb/32k. 0.852 WHIP. 36.0% K%, 3.4% BB%.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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End of season recap for the top prospects (and guys I like) at Salem and below. In the process of doing Greenville. Mostly ignored DSL because if a player is really worth noting at that level, they end up getting noted. No one really has.

Miguel Bleis: His season was cut short but he lived up to the hype and then some. He struck out a bit but was trending in the right direction. Could afford to walk some more too. Should be a plus defender at CF with a small chance of outgrowing the position. 5 tool player who can add value in all facets of the game.

40 games, 167 PA, .301/.353/.543, .394 BAbip. 10bb/45k. 23 xbh/5 HR. 18/21 sb. 6.0% BB%, 26.9% K%, .242 ISO. In his last 36 PA, he had 3bb/4k.

Roman Anthony: He showed a decent eye in limited play, though hasn't shown much power yet. Walked more than he struck out in Salem, though his bat went cold.
20 games, 83 PA, .306/.374/.361, .314 BAbip, 9bb/8k. 4xbh. 10.8% BB%, 9.6% K%. Played mostly in CF.

Mikey Romero: Showed some decent pop in Salem but had 1bb/11k in 44 PA. He walked more than struck out in the FCL. Has played mostly SS but has spend a bit of time at 2b.
19 games, 87 PA, .304/.368/.506, .343 BAbip, 8bb/15k, 11xbh/1 HR. 9.2% BB%, 17.2% K%.

Johnfrank Salazar: Struggled a bit in Salem after a very good FCL campaign. 5bb/17k in 83 PA at Salem, 17bb/9k in 122 PA at FCL. Hasn't hit for much power and has played every infield position.
51 games, 205 PA, .296/.386/.394, .347 BAbip, 22bb/26k, 14xbh/0HR. 10.7% BB%, 12.7% K%.

Allan Castro: struggled out of the gate but finished his FCL season strong, earning him a promotion to Salem where he held his own factoring in luck. OF with plus power and advanced hit tool for his age.
49 games, 179 PA, .260/.346/.429, .325 BAbip, 19bb/45k, 14 xbh/3 HR. 10.6% BB%, 25.1% K%.

Chase Meidroth: This year's 4th round pick had a great start to his amateur career. A very young junior, this is technically his age 20 season (he didn't become a pro until 21 though). He has walked more than he has struck out and has hit for some power. Should stick at 2b. I'm guessing he starts next year in Greenville and if he does well, could earn an early promotion given his pedigree. He was the only college hitter selected this year. I'm extremely high on him and can't wait to see how he progresses as he moves up in levels.
22 games 96 PA, .316/.438/.540, .318 BAbip, 14bb/11k, 9xbh/4 HR. 14.6% BB%, 11.5% K%.

Eddinson Paulino: He really came into his own after the first month of the year. He had an incredibly consistent year topped off with an exclamation point. Paulino started to play some CF this year and there is reason to think he can stick there. All his tools project to around average but some could end in the above average area. There is no real weakness in his game. The sum is worth more than the individual parts kind of guy, Sox have many. He should be in Greenville to start his age 20 season next year. (Turned 20 in July)
114 games, 539 PA, .266/.359/.469, 64bb/105k, 58xbh/13 HR, 27/32 sb. 11.9% BB%, 19.5% K%.
Last 20: 97 PA, .374/.454/.651, .406 BB, 13bb/15k, 13 xbh/5 HR, 5/7 sb.

Brainer Bonaci: Brainer had an interesting year. A tale of 2 halves. While it could just be random noise, he just turned 20 in July and has average raw power. He hit for more than 3 times the power in his last 52 games than he did in the first 56 while mostly maintaining the same BB/K numbers. It's always hard to tell with 19-20 year old kids if they are just in a hot stretch or maybe something clicked. Scouts always seem to love him, or at least his character/make up. (Turned 20 in July)
First 56 games: 264 PA, .244/.371/.304, .308 BAbip, 44bb/47k, 10xbh/0 HR. 10/13 sb. .060 ISO.
Last 52 games: 230 PA, .283/.426/.483, .333 BAbip, 45bb/42k, 21xbh/6 HR. 18/21 sb. .200 ISO.
Year: 108 games, 494 PA, .262/.397/.385, .319 BAbip, 89bb/89k, 31 xbh/6HR. 28/34 sb. .123 ISO.

Luis De La Rosa: Struggled to finish out an otherwise good season. The pitcher will need to add some velocity to have success but has an intriguing profile. (19 years old)
15 games, 3.70 era, 48.2 ip, 21bb/58k. 1.171 WHIP. 27.5% K%, 10.0% BB%.

Hunter Dobbins: His stuff has returned after TJS but he struggled to finish out the 2nd half. Ended up with very pedestrian numbers but has good stuff if he can harness it.
17 games, 5.22 era, 69.0 ip, 22bb/68k. 1.507 WHIP. 22.6% K%, 7.3% BB.

Luis Perales: Really came out of nowhere this year to establish himself as the most exciting arm under 20 in the organization (He's 19). Earned a promotion to Salem after dominating the FCL. He struck out 30.8% of the batters he faced in Salem, but also walked 21.2% of them. He has a very wide range of outcomes but he has ace type stuff. Hope he stays healthy because he's filth.
13 games, 1.77 era, 35.2 ip, 20bb/50k, 1.121 WHIP. 34.2% K%, 13.7% BB%.

Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz: Another pitcher who dominated the FCL and earned an and of season promotion to Salem. The 18 year old has a very good 3 pitch mix that should play up if he adds some velocity, as he's projected to do.
13 games, 1.88 era, 38.1 ip, 15bb/42k. 1.200 WHIP. 26.1% K%, 9.3% BB%.


Greenville list of players reviewed next: Hickey, Mayer, Jordan, Lugo, Yorke, Wikelman, Luis Guerrero, Encarnacion. (Kavadas and Webb are in AA).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Marcelo Mayer: The jewel of the organization, he didn't disappoint. There wasn't much to dislike about Mayer's 2022 campaign, though the strikeouts are worth watching. After being promoted, he went 1/18. The next 97 PA, he hit .313/.433/.538, .396 BAbip, 16bb/23k, 9 xbh/4 HR. Those numbers are very similar to his numbers in Salem.
Overall: 91 games, 424 PA, .280/.399/.489, .365 BAbip, 68bb/107k, 45 xbh/13 HR. 17/17 sb. 16.0% BB%, 25.2% K%.
Worth noting: Over his last 21 games in Salem, he had 28bb/21k in 103 PA. He really started to figure out the league. Prior to that, he was at 23bb/57k in 205 PA. Pretty stark difference.

Nathan Hickey: The Red Sox 5th round pick in 2021 (closer to 2nd-3rd round money). He had an incredibly encouraging season with the bat. While a lot of his value depends on if he can stick behind the plate (projects to below average), there's now reason to believe he might hit enough for 1b or LF. Had just as much success in Greenville as Salem, though more power, less bb, more ks.. We will know more about him next year when he's at an age appropriate level at Portland but he mashed this year. Got overshadowed a bit by Kavadas but Hickey's probably the better prospect. It's close.
75 games, 328 PA, .263/.415/.522, .309 BAbip, 63bb/78k. 34xbh/16 HR. 19.2% BB%, 23.8% K% (26.7% in A+).

Blaze Jordan: He's started playing a bit more at 1b this year and will have to hit for more power than he has if he plans to make the majors. His power will largely depend on how his hit tool develops. He seems to be dedicated and a hard worker, having gotten into much better shape after being drafted. Still really young.
120 games, 521 PA, .289/.363/.445, .339 BAbip, 48bb/94k, 45xbh/12 HR. 9.2% BB%, 18.0% K% (25.5% in A+)

Nick Yorke: Yorke really struggled in his age 20 season, failing to hit for average or much power. Especially disappointing considering how well he did last year. He's fell out of some top 100 lists and his value has definitely taken a hit. He's also been fighting injures all year and has had some bad BAbip luck. Next year will be a telling year in AA, though AA always tells us a lot.
80 games, 373 PA, .232/.303/.365, .288 BAbip, 33bb/94k, 22 xbh/11 HR, 8.8% BB%, 25.2% K%,

Matthew Lugo: The 2nd round pick of 2019 got some press early on with a hot start to the season. He struggled mightily in July and fell out of the public eye some. He had a monster finish to the year to get some of the attention back. He should also start next year in Portland, probably at 2b or 3b. More than doubled his ISO year over year.
114 games, 512 PA, .288/.344/.500, .330 BAbip, 35bb/100k, 53 xbh/18 HR. 20/27 sb. 6.8% BB%, 19.5% K%.

Wikelman Gonzalez: Big time arm and still only 20 years old. Was a completely different pitcher since August, earning himself a promotion to A+ where he continued to do well.
Year: 25 games, 4.21 era, 98.1 ip, 54bb/121k, 1.322 WHIP. 28.3% K%, 12.6% BB%.
Last 7: 2.18 era, 33.0 ip, 10bb/39k, .970 WHIP. 29.3% K%, 7.5% BB%. In A+, it's 32.9% K%, 8.6% BB in 17.0 ip.

Luis Guerrero: I think the rankings are dragging behind the results and the scouting reports or there's just a very strong bias against bullpen arms (there is). But even here, no one really mentions him. Out of actual relief prospects, he's probably the best. He sits in the high 90s and tops out at 100. His velocity has improved drastically since being drafted last year. His fastball and splitter are potential plus offerings and his slider is potentially average. Reportedly has a curveball too but maybe he ditched it. It's his splitter that really separates him from the pack though.
Year: 27 games, 3.23 era, 39.0 ip, 17bb/59k. 1.103 WHIP. 35.5% K%, 10.2% BB%.
A+: 7 games, 2.08 era, 13.0 ip, 3bb/19k. 1.077 WHIP, 34.5% K%, 5.5% BB%.
last 18.1 ip, 4bb/30k.

Juan Daniel Encarnacion: Has an intriguing mix of pitches and has seen an uptick in velocity. If that continues to improve, he becomes an interesting arm.
26 games, 4.05 era, 113.1 ip, 42bb/129k, 1.271 WHIP. 26.5% K%, 8.6% BB%.


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4 of Greenville's every day players will be 20 years old next year. Mayer, Jordan, Bonaci, Paulino. The last Red Sox player (positional anyway) to make Portland in their age 20 season is Rafael Devers in 2017. Then Margot in 2015, Bogaerts (20) in 2013, Bogaerts (19) in 2012,Heiker Meneses (known filler even at 20) in 2012, Heiker (filler at 19, too) in 2011, Jose Iglesias in 2010, Anthony Rizzo in 2010, Lars Anderson in 2008, Josh Reddick in 2007 (barely, 1 PA), Hanley Ramirez 2004.

Over the last 20 years, the Red Sox have had 9 players reach Portland by age 20 or younger. One was known to be organizational filler in Heiker. Lars flamed out before making the majors. Devers, Bogaerts, Rizzo and Hanley were smashing successes. Iglesias and Reddick had/are having solid careers. Margot is on his way to having a good career. That's an insanely good list and the Sox have a chance to have 4 players make AA next year by age 20. 7 of 9 went on to be (maybe even above) average players or better.
 
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Marcelo Mayer: The jewel of the organization, he didn't disappoint. There wasn't much to dislike about Mayer's 2022 campaign, though the strikeouts are worth watching. After being promoted, he went 1/18. The next 97 PA, he hit .313/.433/.538, .396 BAbip, 16bb/23k, 9 xbh/4 HR. Those numbers are very similar to his numbers in Salem.
Overall: 91 games, 424 PA, .280/.399/.489, .365 BAbip, 68bb/107k, 45 xbh/13 HR. 17/17 sb. 16.0% BB%, 25.2% K%.
Worth noting: Over his last 21 games in Salem, he had 28bb/21k in 103 PA. He really started to figure out the league. Prior to that, he was at 23bb/57k in 205 PA. Pretty stark difference.

Nathan Hickey: The Red Sox 5th round pick in 2021 (closer to 2nd-3rd round money). He had an incredibly encouraging season with the bat. While a lot of his value depends on if he can stick behind the plate (projects to below average), there's now reason to believe he might hit enough for 1b or LF. Had just as much success in Greenville as Salem, though more power, less bb, more ks.. We will know more about him next year when he's at an age appropriate level at Portland but he mashed this year. Got overshadowed a bit by Kavadas but Hickey's probably the better prospect. It's close.
75 games, 328 PA, .263/.415/.522, .309 BAbip, 63bb/78k. 34xbh/16 HR. 19.2% BB%, 23.8% K% (26.7% in A+).

Blaze Jordan: He's started playing a bit more at 1b this year and will have to hit for more power than he has if he plans to make the majors. His power will largely depend on how his hit tool develops. He seems to be dedicated and a hard worker, having gotten into much better shape after being drafted. Still really young.
120 games, 521 PA, .289/.363/.445, .339 BAbip, 48bb/94k, 45xbh/12 HR. 9.2% BB%, 18.0% K% (25.5% in A+)

Nick Yorke: Yorke really struggled in his age 20 season, failing to hit for average or much power. Especially disappointing considering how well he did last year. He's fell out of some top 100 lists and his value has definitely taken a hit. He's also been fighting injures all year and has had some bad BAbip luck. Next year will be a telling year in AA, though AA always tells us a lot.
80 games, 373 PA, .232/.303/.365, .288 BAbip, 33bb/94k, 22 xbh/11 HR, 8.8% BB%, 25.2% K%,

Matthew Lugo: The 2nd round pick of 2019 got some press early on with a hot start to the season. He struggled mightily in July and fell out of the public eye some. He had a monster finish to the year to get some of the attention back. He should also start next year in Portland, probably at 2b or 3b. More than doubled his ISO year over year.
114 games, 512 PA, .288/.344/.500, .330 BAbip, 35bb/100k, 53 xbh/18 HR. 20/27 sb. 6.8% BB%, 19.5% K%.

Wikelman Gonzalez: Big time arm and still only 20 years old. Was a completely different pitcher since August, earning himself a promotion to A+ where he continued to do well.
Year: 25 games, 4.21 era, 98.1 ip, 54bb/121k, 1.322 WHIP. 28.3% K%, 12.6% BB%.
Last 7: 2.18 era, 33.0 ip, 10bb/39k, .970 WHIP. 29.3% K%, 7.5% BB%. In A+, it's 32.9% K%, 8.6% BB in 17.0 ip.

Luis Guerrero: I think the rankings are dragging behind the results and the scouting reports or there's just a very strong bias against bullpen arms (there is). But even here, no one really mentions him. Out of actual relief prospects, he's probably the best. He sits in the high 90s and tops out at 100. His velocity has improved drastically since being drafted last year. His fastball and splitter are potential plus offerings and his slider is potentially average. Reportedly has a curveball too but maybe he ditched it. It's his splitter that really separates him from the pack though.
Year: 27 games, 3.23 era, 39.0 ip, 17bb/59k. 1.103 WHIP. 35.5% K%, 10.2% BB%.
A+: 7 games, 2.08 era, 13.0 ip, 3bb/19k. 1.077 WHIP, 34.5% K%, 5.5% BB%.
last 18.1 ip, 4bb/30k.

Juan Daniel Encarnacion: Has an intriguing mix of pitches and has seen an uptick in velocity. If that continues to improve, he becomes an interesting arm.
26 games, 4.05 era, 113.1 ip, 42bb/129k, 1.271 WHIP. 26.5% K%, 8.6% BB%.


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4 of Greenville's every day players will be 20 years old next year. Mayer, Jordan, Bonaci, Paulino. The last Red Sox player (positional anyway) to make Portland in their age 20 season is Rafael Devers in 2017. Then Margot in 2015, Bogaerts (20) in 2013, Bogaerts (19) in 2012,Heiker Meneses (known filler even at 20) in 2012, Heiker (filler at 19, too) in 2011, Jose Iglesias in 2010, Anthony Rizzo in 2010, Lars Anderson in 2008, Josh Reddick in 2007 (barely, 1 PA), Hanley Ramirez 2004.

Over the last 20 years, the Red Sox have had 9 players reach Portland by age 20 or younger. One was known to be organizational filler in Heiker. Lars flamed out before making the majors. Devers, Bogaerts, Rizzo and Hanley were smashing successes. Iglesias and Reddick had/are having solid careers. Margot is on his way to having a good career. That's an insanely good list and the Sox have a chance to have 4 players make AA next year by age 20. 7 of 9 went on to be (maybe even above) average players or better.
Any good reports on how Mayer has been in the field?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Any good reports on how Mayer has been in the field?
It's all been encouraging but it's hard to tell how much is projection and how much is now. Like, WMB was projected to be a GG. Instead, he was merely average. I'm guessing Mayer is going to be at least fringe average at SS given the reports, probably better than that. I'm just not sure how good he is at the moment, maybe he's already fringe average. Where as someone like Luis Ravelo could play plus defense at the MLB level right now. There's no projection.

Outside of Portland, I don't really get to see these guys often myself to get a good feel on their D.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
21,397
Dalbec went 2/4 with 2 HR today. He was 2/3 with 2 HRs and a BB yesterday
Valdez was 1/3 with a double, bb.
Mata went 5.0 ip, 9 hits, 1r/1er, 0bb/7k.

Rafaela was 0/4 with 2k.
Lugo was 0/4 with 2k
Kavadas was 0/4 with 3k

This was Portland's last regular season game. They just finished 6 games in a row against Somerset just to play Somerset again in a best of 3.