Minor League Thread 2024

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,260
Here's mine, from some research I was doing earlier. (You can ignore the third guy, jon abbey thinks he's cool, though)

View attachment 80009
Sorry, I didn't mean to not engage with this. I was just living my best Montgomery = starter Bernardino comp life.

But I'm not sure what the overarching thesis is. I do expect Kutter to have a better season than Montgomery this year (assuming health, but especially when adjusting for park factors), but it has almost nothing to do with what kind of pitcher Montgomery was 4 to 7 years ago.

& that also has almost nothing to do with whether signing other JM would be a good idea or not.

If the Red Sox end the year this far under the CBT line, I will be embarrassed for them. Even if they're cash poor, they can do more deals like the Bello deal where they increased their CBT # but it had almost no impact on their outgoing cash this year. Not using that buffer under the tax this year would be detrimental to future financial flexibility.

The Red Sox Payroll guy has the Sox just about exactly $25m under the tax line, so they probably couldn't really sign other JM & stay under the tax without moving a guy like Martin or Kenley, & then what's really the point?

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1772379007280939310

New info from Chris, here. A bit surprising it's that much more than the league min, but a small number that easily fits into their CBT space. Anderson + Joely could make a combined $2.75MM for a whole season + incentives. The updated projected CBT number is now ~$215.75MM, ~$25.25MM below the first threshold.
I just hope they get really creative with that space. Whether it means things are going badly & you trade a subsidized Kenley/Martin/etc., whether it means taking on someone's bad contract + a prospect, or whether it means extensions for Casas, C Note, Crawford, Houck, ATM, etc etc.

There are much more interesting uses for that space than Montgomery. But they better use it somehow.
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
29,806
Alamogordo
Eh, it's just an anecdote to show that Kutter's numbers from 25-27 have been pretty similar to what Montgomery did at the same age. There's plenty of reason to discount it, since a lot of Kutter's numbers are as a reliever, and JM dealt with a TJS in the middle of it, but it's fun to look at and we were doing hot takes.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,260
Eh, it's just an anecdote to show that Kutter's numbers from 25-27 have been pretty similar to what Montgomery did at the same age. There's plenty of reason to discount it, since a lot of Kutter's numbers are as a reliever, and JM dealt with a TJS in the middle of it, but it's fun to look at and we were doing hot takes.
Lol sorry wasn't trying to be rude. It's an interesting comparison. What's the take, though?

& I might have gone off on a bit of a tangent not directed at you because I don't really express MLB opinions anymore :)
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
29,806
Alamogordo
Oh sorry. AHEM

My Opening Day Eve hot take is that Kutter Crawford will be a better pitcher over the next five years than Jordan Montgomery. He will pitch more inning, have better peripherals and his K, BB, and HR rates will be better.

Also, his name is way fucking cooler.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,260
Oh sorry. AHEM

My Opening Day Eve hot take is that Kutter Crawford will be a better pitcher over the next five years than Jordan Montgomery. He will pitch more inning, have better peripherals and his K, BB, and HR rates will be better.

Also, his name is way fucking cooler.
My initial thought was that these are just things I believe to be correct, & not a hot take, but let me put my thought on each of those takes in the form of the % I think they are likely to happen.

Better pitcher over next 5 years (WAR?) - 79%
More innings - 46%
Better peripherals - 87%
K-rate - 99%
BB-rate - 53%
HR-rate - 38%
Name cooler - 100%
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,260
Oh sorry. AHEM

My Opening Day Eve hot take is that Kutter Crawford will be a better pitcher over the next five years than Jordan Montgomery. He will pitch more inning, have better peripherals and his K, BB, and HR rates will be better.

Also, his name is way fucking cooler.
This TJStats guy may think the Red Sox suck (74 wins, last place).

View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1773082494981591441/photo/1


But of his 10 bold predictions, 2 relate to Red Sox pitchers, including Koolname Kutter:

View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1773060468334084126


& his binkie Slaten:

View: https://twitter.com/TJStats/status/1773060475577594238


From Speier's AMA:80038
If Speier properly had Campbell in the top 25, this never would have happened.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,260
So how's this for a hot take...Jordan Montgomery is starter Brennan Bernardino & the Red Sox clearly aren't that into Bernardino so this is not surprising.
Monty = workhorse Berny take is gaining steam <3

The baseball argument is they liked Giolito's (potential) stuff better. I like Montgomery a lot but he's not exactly a stuff+ darling. Of 44 qualified starters he was 30th by stuff+, 26th by location+ and 40th by pitching+, and that's consistent with his profile. Giolito's year wasn't great either, but he's shown in the past that he was capable of much nastier pitches and there was plenty of reporting this winter about them working to get him back there.

It's petty clear there's substantial buy-in to driveline philosophies at play here (including hiring driveline guys). For an in-house example, look at Bernardino, who by more conventional metrics was maybe our second best reliever last year, and had a 0 ERA on 0.75 WHIP this spring. But by pitching+ he was 197th/198 (relievers, min 40 IP), and now he's in AAA.
 

The Gray Eagle

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
16,904
Just looking at Sox Prospects to see where guys will start the season:
https://soxprospects.com/2024.htm
They list Yordanny and Mikey Romero not with any team but under XST Taxi Squad. Does that mean they are injured? That they are healthy but won't be starting the season with an affiliate but instead will stay in extended spring training at first? Both?

I was looking forward to checking out Greenville's rotation, which still looks fun even without Yordanny, but would be even more exciting with him:
Perales, Sandlin, Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Dalton Rogers and Paez.
 

sittingstill

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
1,593
Bay State Road
Just looking at Sox Prospects to see where guys will start the season:
https://soxprospects.com/2024.htm
They list Yordanny and Mikey Romero not with any team but under XST Taxi Squad. Does that mean they are injured? That they are healthy but won't be starting the season with an affiliate but instead will stay in extended spring training at first? Both?

I was looking forward to checking out Greenville's rotation, which still looks fun even without Yordanny, but would be even more exciting with him:
Perales, Sandlin, Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Dalton Rogers and Paez.
Alex Speier said Romero was healthy but they were bringing him back slowly after the injuries last year. FWIW I was there March 16-23 and didn't lay eyes on him. I did see Yordanny throw long toss (and PFP earlier in the month)


but last week he was throwing with a group that included some injured/rehabbing pitchers so they may just be dealing with something small while not wanting to rush him.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,614
As the Sox try to help their young pitchers, they’re going to make some changes to the structure of their work. Perhaps most notable: From Double A down, the organization will employ six-man rotations with multi-innings relievers behind them. With minor league affiliates having virtually all Mondays off, the once-a-week starting schedule will permit structured routines for goal-oriented side work.
A look at the Red Sox’ minor league affiliates and the top prospects at each level (bostonglobe.com)
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,260
I wonder when someone is going to tell Speier this isn't new?

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1774931627451535392

See for example this thread:

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/8-29-2023-milb-from-the-future.40320/

Which includes posts like this:

So here's the most aggressive promotion proposal I can make, which I don't think will actually happen, but I think I can justify it if they went this route...

MLB - 1 of Bear Claw/Walter/Murphy, can rotate, but starts with Bear Claw potentially being promoted today.

Worcester rotation (5-man):
Tuesday: Dobbins (promoted)
Wednesday: Van Belle
Thursday: Drohan
Friday: Gambrell
Saturday: Walter

Portland rotation (6-man):
Tuesday: Liu
Wednesday: Bastardo
Thursday: Coffey
Friday: Penrod (promoted)
Saturday: Perales (promoted)
Sunday: Wikelman

Greenville rotation (6-man):
Tuesday: Ramirez (promoted)
Wednesday: Song
Thursday: Rogers
Friday: Yordanny (promoted)
Saturday: JDE
Sunday: Paez (promoted)

Salem rotation (6-man):
Tuesday: Cohen (promoted)
Wednesday: Elvis
Thursday: Van Der Schaaf (promoted)
Friday: Nunez
Saturday: Dean
Sunday: De La Rosa (elevated from RP)
 
Last edited:

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,260
Pipeline did a prediction for 1 guy from each org. Ours was ROMAN:

Red Sox: Roman Anthony, OF (No. 2/MLB No. 23)
After thriving in High-A and Double-A as a teenager in his first full pro season, Anthony will more than double his home run production from 14 last year to 30 this summer. He'll become the first 20-year-old Boston prospect to reach the 30-homer plateau since Jim Rice in 1973.
https://www.mlb.com/news/one-2024-prospect-prediction-for-each-team?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
 

mwonow

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2005
7,162
I must be old - I thought that sentence would end with Tony C.

32 at age 20. In Boston. F Jack Hamilton, again and forever
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,489

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,260
Weighing age and level of competition, it’s gotta be Roman though still, no?
It depends on what you're looking for in a Player of the Week, but that's basically what I was getting at with my ROMAN vote.

His week was both not particularly surprising, but also the most exciting.