MLB Free Agency Predictions

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,298
deep inside Guido territory
With free agency starting up, let's get a pulse on where SoSH thinks the big free agents are headed.

Aaron Judge--Yankees 8 years, $330 million
Jacob deGrom--Mets 3 years, $140 million
Carlos Correa--Dodgers 9 years, $280 million
Trea Turner--Phillies 8 years, $275 million
Justin Verlander--Astros 2 years, $75 million
Xander Bogaerts--Red Sox 7 years, $210 million
Carlos Rodon--Rangers 5 years, $125 million
Dansby Swanson--Braves 7 years, $165 million
Brandon Nimmo--Mets 7 years, $145 million
Jose Abreu--White Sox 4 years/$90 million
Clayton Kershaw--Rangers 1 year, $25 million
Kodai Senga--Red Sox 5 years, $75 million
Wilson Contreras--Twins 4 years, $80 million
Chris Bassitt--Cardinals 3 years, $65 million
Anthony Rizzo--Yankees 3 years, $75 million
Kenley Jansen--Red Sox 1 year, $15 million
Andrew Benintendi--Rockies 3 years, $55 million
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
72,448
Judge Giants 9 years $360
Bogaerts Phillies 7 years $225
Degrom Mets 4 years $148
Rizzo Yankees 4 years $80
Correa Dodgers 6 years $225
Swanson Braves 8 years $220
Kershaw Orioles 1 year $27.5
Turner Orioles 7 years $232.5
Nimmo Mets 6 years $149
Rodon Phillies 4 years $110
Abreu Cubs 5 years $120
Benintendi Red Sox 1 year $15
Jensen Dbacks 1 year $18
 

Yaz4Ever

MemBer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2004
11,256
MA-CA-RI-AZ-NC
Aaron Judge--Giants 10 years, $410 million
Jacob deGrom--Mets 3 years, $110 million
Carlos Correa--Dodgers 9 years, $275 million
Trea Turner--Phillies 8 years, $260 million
Justin Verlander--Astros 2 years, $75 million
Xander Bogaerts--Red Sox 6 years, $175 million
Carlos Rodon--Red Sox 5 years, $125 million
Dansby Swanson--Braves 7 years, $165 million
Brandon Nimmo--Red Sox 5 years, $120 million
Jose Abreu--White Sox 4 years/$100 million
Clayton Kershaw--Rangers 2 years, $45 million
Wilson Contreras--Twins 4 years, $90 million
Anthony Rizzo--Yankees 3 years, $75 million
 

Ale Xander

Hamilton
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2013
72,448
Aaron Judge--Giants 10 years, $410 million
Jacob deGrom--Mets 3 years, $110 million
Carlos Correa--Dodgers 9 years, $275 million
Trea Turner--Phillies 8 years, $260 million
Justin Verlander--Astros 2 years, $75 million
Xander Bogaerts--Red Sox 6 years, $175 million
Carlos Rodon--Red Sox 5 years, $125 million
Dansby Swanson--Braves 7 years, $165 million
Brandon Nimmo--Red Sox 5 years, $120 million
Jose Abreu--White Sox 4 years/$100 million
Clayton Kershaw--Rangers 2 years, $45 million
Wilson Contreras--Twins 4 years, $90 million
Anthony Rizzo--Yankees 3 years, $75 million
Which day this week is Bloom getting fired?
 

Rice4HOF

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 21, 2002
1,887
Calgary, Canada
Aaron Judge--Giants 9 years, $365 million
Jacob deGrom--Mets 4 years, $165 million
Carlos Correa--Dodgers 9 years, $270 million
Trea Turner--Braves 8 years, $240 million
Justin Verlander--Astros 2 years, $75 million
Xander Bogaerts--Phillies 8 years, $230 million
Carlos Rodon--Red Sox 5 years, $135 million
Dansby Swanson--Angels 6 years, $160 million
Brandon Nimmo--Mets 5 years, $120 million
Jose Abreu-- Red White Sox 3 years/$75 million
Clayton Kershaw--Dodgers 1 year, $25 million
Kodai Senga--Red Sox 5 years, $105 million
Wilson Contreras--Astros 4 years, $85 million
Chris Bassitt--Mets 3 years, $70 million
Anthony Rizzo--Yankees 2 years, $45 million
Kenley Jansen-- Giants 2 year, $28 million
Andrew Benintendi--Orioles 3 years, $50 million
 
Last edited:

RG33

Certain Class of Poster
SoSH Member
Nov 28, 2005
7,199
CA
With free agency starting up, let's get a pulse on where SoSH thinks the big free agents are headed.

Aaron Judge--Yankees 8 years, $330 million
Jacob deGrom--Mets 3 years, $140 million
Carlos Correa--Dodgers 9 years, $280 million
Trea Turner--Phillies 8 years, $275 million
Justin Verlander--Astros 2 years, $75 million
Xander Bogaerts--Red Sox 7 years, $210 million
Carlos Rodon--Rangers 5 years, $125 million
Dansby Swanson--Braves 7 years, $165 million
Brandon Nimmo--Mets 7 years, $145 million
Jose Abreu--White Sox 4 years/$90 million
Clayton Kershaw--Rangers 1 year, $25 million
Kodai Senga--Red Sox 5 years, $75 million
Wilson Contreras--Twins 4 years, $80 million
Chris Bassitt--Cardinals 3 years, $65 million
Anthony Rizzo--Yankees 3 years, $75 million
Kenley Jansen--Red Sox 1 year, $15 million
Andrew Benintendi--Rockies 3 years, $55 million
I think these are probably pretty accurate, but reading through them, my head almost exploded.

-Judge will be 31 in April. 8 years at $40m+ just doesn’t seem like it will be worth it. [PASS]
-Degrom’s elbow is held together by duct tape and has thrown 200 innings. . . .the last 3 seasons combined [PASS[
-Correa is in his prime but has played in more than 110 games 3x in his 8 year career [PASS]
-This feels reasonable for Verlander who is a horse — don’t think he is leaving Houston though [SIGN]
-Rodon feels fragile despite his great season, but if you can get him for 5/125 you do that all day long [SIGN]
-Swanson is 75-80 the player that Bogaerts and only 2 years younger, this is a reasonable contract but not worth expending the resources for him [PASS]
-Abreu will be 36 on opening day and the downward spiral feels like it has already started [PASS]
-Kershaw for 1 year would be fine [SIGN]

The rest of them seem reasonable to me but not really a need for the Red Sox (know nothing about Senga).
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,348
Aaron Judge--Giants, 10 years, $385m
Jacob deGrom--Mets 3 years, $120m
Carlos Correa--Yankees, 8 years, $250m
Trea Turner--Dodgers 8 years, $240 m
Justin Verlander--Astros 2 years, $75 m
Xander Bogaerts--Red Sox 7 years, $210 m
Carlos Rodon--Rangers 5 years, $125 m
Dansby Swanson--Braves 7 years, $165 m
Brandon Nimmo--Yankees, 5 years, $100m
Jose Abreu--White Sox 2 years, $30m
Clayton Kershaw--Rangers 1 year, $25 million
Kodai Senga--Padres, 4, $12.5million
Wilson Contreras--Twins 4 years, $80 million
Chris Bassitt--Cardinals 3 years, $65 million
Anthony Rizzo--Yankees 3 years, $75 million
Kenley Jansen--Red Sox 1 year, $15 million
Andrew Benintendi--Rockies 3 years, $55 million
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
3,646
Arkansas
Judge Giants 8y 340 mil
degrom mets 5y 175 mil
correa phillis 4y 125 mil
turner red sox 3y 90 mil
verlander astros 2/80 mil
bogaerts sea 6y 180 mil
rodon yankees 5/150 mil
swanson braves 7y/135 mil
nimmo yankees 4y 85 mil
abreu white sox 2/25
kershaw 1y 20 mil dogers
senga - sea 4 12.5 mil
contreras NYY 4/80
Bassett parders 3/75
rizzo 6y 120 mil nyy
jansen 1y 18 mil red sox
andrew b 2y 25 mil red sox
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
I don't want to do teams so I'll just do terms with the Sox bolded. I think the market is going to trend more towards defense, baserunning, and contact hitting so sluggers like Rizzo, and Abreu will get significantly less than in the OP, and Judge won't be the powerball winner some think. Though I do think the Yankees will stretch a bit because they can.

I think we're looking at a whole new sport and I can't wait.

Aaron Judge-- 8 years, $300 million

Jacob deGrom--3 years, $135 million

Carlos Correa-- 8 years, $265 million

Trea Turner-- 7 years, $240 million

Justin Verlander-- 2 years, $85 million

Xander Bogaerts--6 years, $180 million

Carlos Rodon--5 years, $135 million

Dansby Swanson--Red Sox 6 years, $145 million (They need to fix the defense and Bloom seems to value it big time)

Brandon Nimmo--Red Sox 4 years, $100 million

Jose Abreu--2 years/$35 million

Clayton Kershaw-- 2 years $45 million

Kodai Senga--Red Sox 4 years, $60 million

Wilson Contreras--4 years, $65 million

Chris Bassitt-- 3 years, $45 million

Anthony Rizzo-- 3 years, $50 million

Kenley Jansen--1 year, $13 million

Andrew Benintendi--4 years, $60 million
 
Last edited:

Rice4HOF

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 21, 2002
1,887
Calgary, Canada
Aaron Judge--Giants 9 years, $365 million
Jacob deGrom--Mets 4 years, $165 million
Carlos Correa--Dodgers 9 years, $270 million
Trea Turner--Braves 8 years, $240 million
Justin Verlander--Astros 2 years, $75 million
Xander Bogaerts--Phillies 8 years, $230 million
Carlos Rodon--Red Sox 5 years, $135 million
Dansby Swanson--Angels 6 years, $160 million
Brandon Nimmo--Mets 5 years, $120 million
Jose Abreu-- Red White Sox 3 years/$75 million
Clayton Kershaw--Dodgers 1 year, $25 million
Kodai Senga--Red Sox 5 years, $105 million
Wilson Contreras--Astros 4 years, $85 million
Chris Bassitt--Mets 3 years, $70 million
Anthony Rizzo--Yankees 2 years, $45 million
Kenley Jansen-- Giants 2 year, $28 million
Andrew Benintendi--Orioles 3 years, $50 million
Time to bump this and see where we're at:
Aaron Judge--Giants 9 years, $365 million - ACTUAL: Yankees 9 / $360
Jacob deGrom--Mets 4 years, $165 million - ACTUAL: Rangers 5/$185
Carlos Correa--Dodgers 9 years, $270 million
Trea Turner--Braves 8 years, $240 million ACTUAL: Phillies 11/$300
Justin Verlander--Astros 2 years, $75 million ACTUAL: Mets 2/$86
Xander Bogaerts--Phillies 8 years, $230 million
Carlos Rodon--Red Sox 5 years, $135 million
Dansby Swanson--Angels 6 years, $160 million
Brandon Nimmo--Mets 5 years, $120 million
Jose Abreu-- Red White Sox 3 years/$75 million ACTUAL: Astros 3/$59
Clayton Kershaw--Dodgers 1 year, $25 million ACTUAL Dodgers 1/$20
Kodai Senga--Red Sox 5 years, $105 million
Wilson Contreras--Astros 4 years, $85 million ACTUAL Cardinals 5/$87.5
Chris Bassitt--Mets 3 years, $70 million
Anthony Rizzo--Yankees 2 years, $45 million ACTUAL 2/$40
Kenley Jansen-- Giants 2 year, $28 million ACTUAL: Red Sox 2/$32
Andrew Benintendi--Orioles 3 years, $50 million

Other notables not on list:
Jameson Taillon - Cubs 4/$68
Josh Bell - Guardinas 2/$33
Edwin Diaz - Mets 5/$102
Tijuan Walker - Mets 4/$72
Mitch Haniger - Giants 3/$43.5
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,728
Wow, you did better on the numbers than anyone else I’ve seen, professional or amateur. Nice job!!!
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,298
deep inside Guido territory
With free agency starting up, let's get a pulse on where SoSH thinks the big free agents are headed.

Aaron Judge--Yankees 8 years, $330 million
Jacob deGrom--Mets 3 years, $140 million
Carlos Correa--Dodgers 9 years, $280 million
Trea Turner--Phillies 8 years, $275 million
Justin Verlander--Astros 2 years, $75 million
Xander Bogaerts--Red Sox 7 years, $210 million
Carlos Rodon--Rangers 5 years, $125 million
Dansby Swanson--Braves 7 years, $165 million
Brandon Nimmo--Mets 7 years, $145 million
Jose Abreu--White Sox 4 years/$90 million
Clayton Kershaw--Rangers 1 year, $25 million
Kodai Senga--Red Sox 5 years, $75 million
Wilson Contreras--Twins 4 years, $80 million
Chris Bassitt--Cardinals 3 years, $65 million
Anthony Rizzo--Yankees 3 years, $75 million
Kenley Jansen--Red Sox 1 year, $15 million

Andrew Benintendi--Rockies 3 years, $55 million
I did have 4 correct destinations. The money wasn't far off on Judge and Turner. Jansen's AAV was almost $15 million. Was off on destination for Kershaw but the money was right.