Mock away, you can mock away

bsj

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Yeah, to be clear, I have no issues dealing 15/46 or 15/2022 1st (and more) for a Fields/Lance move. Just would probably prefer dealing 46 vs. 2022 1st but that's just me. Depends who's there at 46, I suppose.
For me, this largely depends on how close Bill things a Cam-ed 2021 team is to making a major push. If he thinks this is a legit playoff team with high upside...i probably want that 46. Gives you a piece to that puzzle now in exchange for what will be a likely mid 20s-ish pick next year. If, however, he thinks this is still a borderline playoff team...i'll deal the 46 and keep next year's late teens-ish pick.
 
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BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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For the this largely depends on how close Bill things a Cam-ed 2021 team is to making a major push. If he thinks this is a legit playoff team with high upside...i probably want that 46. Gives you a piece to that puzzle now in exchange for what will be a likely mid 20s-ish pick next year. If, however, he thinks this is still a borderline playoff team...i'll deal the 46 and keep next year's late teens-ish pick.
100% agree. Entirely depends on how good BB thinks we are. Given the signings and returns, there is more upside this year and keeping #46 gives you another chance at an impact guy this year who could help, along with others, to de-value that 2022 1st. But there still is considerable downside as long aa we have huge QB question mark. It was a lot easier to deal 1sts in the past because you knew the value.
 

Cellar-Door

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Outside of the QB tradeup I used the Hill trade chart (ignore the 137 for a future 4th, it was supposed to be a future 3rd but I hit the wrong button and didn't want to start over)
 

Cellar-Door

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Dane Brugler did his 7 round mock (no trades sadly) for the Athletic
https://theathletic.com/2512750/2021/04/14/2021-nfl-mock-draft-all-7-rounds-and-259-picks-from-trevor-lawrence-to-feleipe-franks/
Patriots come out with:
Zaven Collins,
Davis Mills (at 46, I threw up in my mouth a little),
Tylan Wallace (surprised he was there at 96),
Benjamin St-Juste,
Hamsah Nasirildeen,
Marvin Wilson
Jordan Smith
Jose Borregales
Chris Evans
Landon Young

For sheer humor... Charlie Casserly staying on brand as the guy who is always wrong and DEEPLY hates any black QB:
https://www.nfl.com/news/charley-casserly-2021-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-washington-trades-up-for-qb-trey-lance
Lance goes 14, Fields goes TWENTY FOURTH, Patriots take Jaycee Horn
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Charlie Casserly is an absolute clown, but there does seem to be a trend toward Fields dropping significantly in mock drafts. I think all the other big name mock drafts I've seen in the last week have had him in the 7-11 range.

These things are so prone to herding that I'm hesitant to read too much into it. But that would definitely put him into play for the Patriots.
 

Cellar-Door

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Charlie Casserly is an absolute clown, but there does seem to be a trend toward Fields dropping significantly in mock drafts. I think all the other big name mock drafts I've seen in the last week have had him in the 7-11 range.

These things are so prone to herding that I'm hesitant to read too much into it. But that would definitely put him into play for the Patriots.
Oh I have no problem with a QB falling, even Fields, but the idea that a bunch of QB needy teams pass on both Fields and Lance, then a bunch more pass on Fields? Dubious. We really think that all those teams really were after low ceiling Mac Jones? It's especially telling because it's Casserly because his history on Black QBs is long and settled. He's a racist shitstain.
 

RedOctober3829

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I did a mock draft on TDN with no trades and here is what I came out with. All the top QB's were gone by 15.

15. Micah Parsons LB
46. Rondale Moore WR
96. Kellen Mond QB
120. Tyler Shelvin IDL
122. Shaun Wade CB
139. Chuba Hubbard RB
177. Demetric Felton WR/RB
188. Shaka Toney EDGE
197. Elerson Smith EDGE
242. Ian Book QB
 
Feb 19, 2015
3,715
I did a completely no trade mock on PFF:

15 - Jaycee Horn (CB)
46 - Landon Dickerson (C)
96 - Kelvin Joseph (CB)
120 - Kendrick Green (G)
122 - Cade Johnson (WR)
139 - Benjamin St-Juste (CB)
177 - Bobby Brown III (DI)
188 - Jamien Sherwood (S)
197 - D'Ante Smith (T)
242 - Quinton Bohana (DI)

Missed on all my target 3rd down backs but snagged some other binkies. Also, looks like we have to trade Gilmore.
 

JM3

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For me, this largely depends on how close Bill things a Cam-ed 2021 team is to making a major push. If he thinks this is a legit playoff team with high upside...i probably want that 46. Gives you a piece to that puzzle now in exchange for what will be a likely mid 20s-ish pick next year. If, however, he thinks this is still a borderline playoff team...i'll deal the 46 and keep next year's late teens-ish pick.
I don't think it's particularly close & would much rather keep the 2022 1st if given the choice, regardless of where it may be expected to fall.
 

Phil Plantier

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This is much too fun.
pff1.png

I made sure the trades were approximately right on the Rich Hill draft value chart.
 

Section15Box113

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Did a round 1 trade back, couldn’t pass up Jones still sitting there at 19, but then traded up in the second to grab my binkie who also inexplicably slid. I think PFF gave me too much on the trade down and I might have slightly underpaid based on the charts (despite giving me a C- on the deal).

40365
 

RedOctober3829

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Did a round 1 trade back, couldn’t pass up Jones still sitting there at 19, but then traded up in the second to grab my binkie who also inexplicably slid. I think PFF gave me too much on the trade down and I might have slightly underpaid based on the charts (despite giving me a C- on the deal).

View attachment 40365
Two firsts to move back from 15 to 19? That really is peak Washington.
 

67YAZ

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Drafted only 9 because there won’t be many spots on the roster this year, and added picks in round 2, 3, & 5 next year.

40368
 

snowmanny

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Dec 8, 2005
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The Falcons are better off with Pitts. Even leaving aside the fact that Ryan is there for a few more years, Pitts gives any ensuing QB a monster weapon. The fourth QB off the board may or may not be a good QB of the future, but Pitts makes any QB there better by default.
Going back a bit, but while I get the reasons for the Falcons to take Pitts, and I understand the rationale to bring in a high-ceiling developmental quarterback...why wouldn’t the Falcons consider taking Sewell, putting him somewhere on the line for a year or two, and then just move him to LT for a decade?

I understand he’s a perfect fit for Cincinnati so he looks good at pick 5 but if he is a legit HOF caliber OL why aren’t you at #4 at least thinking about taking THAT guy?
 

Cellar-Door

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Interesting...
The Monday morning mocks went up and the Athletic, PFF, Yahoo and CBS all have the same player to the Patriots:
Yahoo- Trey Lance at 15
PFF- Trey Lance at 15
CBS- Trey Lance at 11 (traded 15, 46 and 2022 3rd to get there)
The Athletic- Trey Lance at 7 (same trade as CBS interestingly, 15, 46, 2022 3rd)
 

67YAZ

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interesting you didn’t even take a mid round flyer at qb
I tried to be Bill-ish in my approach & set the PFF parameters to draft for need & care for positional value with little randomness using the PFF board. So 5 QBs went top-8 then Mond and Mills were gone by 83.

Maybe could have come back in the 220s to get Ian Book? To me, he seems the most likely late-round flyer to hand around a roster for a few seasons.
 

E5 Yaz

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Interesting...
The Monday morning mocks went up and the Athletic, PFF, Yahoo and CBS all have the same player to the Patriots:
Yahoo- Trey Lance at 15
PFF- Trey Lance at 15
CBS- Trey Lance at 11 (traded 15, 46 and 2022 3rd to get there)
The Athletic- Trey Lance at 7 (same trade as CBS interestingly, 15, 46, 2022 3rd)
Today, SI (Jenny Vrentas) ... Trey Lance @ 8
 

snowmanny

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I assume that all means they are taking that safety from Oregon that is projected for rounds 2-3.
 

tims4wins

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I'm gonna be absolutely giddy if they draft Lance.
If they draft either Lance or Fields I think we are all going to be really, really excited, regardless of what they give up to get him. If they draft Jones, I think we'll see a range of reaction, but with an overall cautiously optimistic outlook.
 

Beomoose

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Greeny's spent weeks insisting Shanahan is picking Lance, took the news of the second Pro Day as proof positive Shanahan is picking Lance. Going to enjoy myself immensely if the Pats get Lance at any spot, but if he falls into Bill's lap at 15 that guy's next radio show should be salty indeed.
 

Cellar-Door

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Tried to keep the trades close to Rich Hill chart value.... I'd take this draft any day (I mean one of the 4 QBs I'd want at 15 is great by itself).40442

Edit- for another approach (based on PFN's board and Fields not going top 3 he went top 3 in every PFF draft I've done)
8- Fields (Traded 15, 96, 2022 1st)
46- Elijah Moore
120- Dayo Odeyingbo
131- Ambry Thomas (traded 122 and 242 for 131 and 171)
139- Adrian Ealy
171- Marvin Wilson
177- Benjamin St-Juste
188- Jimmy Morrissey
197- Jacob Harris
 
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koufax32

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Dec 8, 2006
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Tried to keep the trades close to Rich Hill chart value.... I'd take this draft any day (I mean one of the 4 QBs I'd want at 15 is great by itself).View attachment 40442

Edit- for another approach (based on PFN's board and Fields not going top 3 he went top 3 in every PFF draft I've done)
8- Fields (Traded 15, 96, 2022 1st)
46- Elijah Moore
120- Dayo Odeyingbo
131- Ambry Thomas (traded 122 and 242 for 131 and 171)
139- Adrian Ealy
171- Marvin Wilson
177- Benjamin St-Juste
188- Jimmy Morrissey
197- Jacob Harris
I feel like getting Captain America at 242 would be a sneaky good pick. Kind of a waste at HB though.
 

Beomoose

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After mostly using PFF's tool to dream about trading up for Lance/Fields, I finally did a "trade down" draft, which I hated, but got an interesting(?) result:

40449
 

bsj

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So...yeah I get the QB I want...the CB I want...address many needs, and amass picks for 2022 (dont mind the little trade at end there I wanted to get an extra 3 out of the deal haha)

40458
 

E5 Yaz

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CBS compiled 12 mocks (themselves, ESPN, NFL etc.) into a consensus mock...
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/consensus-2021-nfl-mock-draft-heres-where-the-majority-of-mocks-see-justin-fields-trey-lance-and-more-going/

Patriots trade up to 7 and get Justin Fields.
Because the pandemic altered the Academy schedule, we're getting all the Oscar prediction stories and the NFL mock drafts at the same time. If this were also the baseball trade deadline, it would be the greatest week ever
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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15: R1 P15 QB Trey Lance - North Dakota State
46: R2 P14 WR Elijah Moore - Ole Miss
96: R3 P32 RB Kenneth Gainwell - Memphis
120: R4 P15 LB Dylan Moses - Alabama
122: R4 P17 CB Shakur Brown - Michigan State
139: R4 P34 EDGE Hamilcar Rashed Jr. - Oregon State
177: R5 P33 OT Tommy Doyle - Miami (OH)
188: R6 P4 WR Josh Imatorbhebhe - Illinois
197: R6 P13 S JaCoby Stevens - LSU
242: R7 P14 OT Jaylon Moore - Western Michigan

Just pulled this off at Fanspeaks OTC draft. It couldn’t have fallen anymore perfectly. All high ceiling picks. I think I’d poop myself if this happened next weekend.
 

JohnnyK

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So...yeah I get the QB I want...the CB I want...address many needs, and amass picks for 2022 (dont mind the little trade at end there I wanted to get an extra 3 out of the deal haha)
so Detroit is willing to trade 122 and a 4th next year for 120? I think that might be a little bit unrealistic.
 

bsj

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i've started doing mocks where we dont go QB in round 1 and I keep landing on a tackle...not so much that I am targeting a tackle, but every time a tackle is the value pick
 

Carbo Loading

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I used SMU_Sox draft board and I ended up trading down 3 times in the first and loading up in the 2nd round along with picking up 4 picks in 2022. I didn't plan on 3 OL but when Stone Forsythe (#45 on the board) was still there at 147 I couldn't resist.

40489
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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And yet I only got a B for the trade. The trade machine is generally broken, i concede.
I started to refer to the trade chart to try to get close to fair value when putting together offers on PFF's mock. I consistently get C grades for my trades, but they're much more realistic.
 

tims4wins

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Ok I found something much more fun - run the PFN draft mock, but don't actually pick for the Pats. Let the sim run. I'm addicted. Trades happen all the time. Fascinating to see it play out.
 

Cellar-Door

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I started to refer to the trade chart to try to get close to fair value when putting together offers on PFF's mock. I consistently get C grades for my trades, but they're much more realistic.
PFF grades are wild beyond just the trades. Out of curiosity I took BPA by their rankings every round... racked up Hundreds of places in surplus.... C+ grades. Even when it was at a position of need. Like I took a WR for the Pats that was 80 picks after where they rated him, he was BPA by 40 picks... C grade.
 

edoug

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8 trades in the first round? Plus getting a player 10 to 20 picks after most draftniks think he'll be drafted. It would make Kiper's head spin.
 

Cellar-Door

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8 trades in the first round? Plus getting a player 10 to 20 picks after most draftniks think he'll be drafted. It would make Kiper's head spin.
Jamin Davis at 120 too? I've seen him mocked as early as the late 20s