Mookie and his agent don't necessarily believe he is worth 12/420. I believe their counter offer was only a message that they intend to test the market. When he does hit the market, his asking price will be irrelvant.
If the whole season is suspended or called off, I think Mookie's and everyone else contact is tolled meaning he would still have to play one more year before free agency. How did the NHL handle such things after the 2004 lockout? I mean if the season never occurs then Mookie still has to play one more year right,?
It’s unlikely the entire season will be canceled, but if it was, there’s no way teams would be paying $150 million in payroll without any gate or TV revenues. Most of them don’t have even have that kind of money to light on fire.
A co-worker is friendly with a member of the Mariners ... he told my friend about the suspension of play before it was on the news ... he also said that they wouldn't be getting paid. I can't imagine that the PA would allow that to happen, but I don't know. Don't teams have insurance for player salaries if they're unable to play? If so, are those policies only for injury and not something like this?
Everything’s insurable, at a cost. But I can’t imagine why a team would incur that cost when their contracts (agreed to by the MLBPA) specifically absolve them from having to pay out under these circumstances.
They don't get paid during spring training, right? So until the season actually starts, no checks are getting cut.
I can't see MLB letting service clocks advance on a cancelled season. how would the Dodgers be OK with this?
That they're now talking about July as the earliest start date and the possibility of all games being played in empty stadiums through the end of the season is likely to suppress the entire market. I imagine few teams are prepared to go through the entire season with zero tickets or concessions sold without consequences in how they operate moving forward.
Truth. We always talk about the security of signing an extension vs. "betting on yourself" and taking it all the way to free agency. Through no fault of his own, Mookie may have completely blown it here. I imagine that things will get back to semi-normalcy in 2021 and there will be a big bidding war for Mookie still, but it's not hard to imagine that he just won't be able to get the same kind of deal he would have gotten if he became a free agent this winter, or even what the Sox would have offered as an extension.
Completely blown it is probably a bit strong. He will make $47 million over 2019-20 and if he gets $200-250 million in a long-term deal then he’s making what he would have under the reported offers he turned down. Also have to figure any long-term deal he signs involves an opt-out that allows him to retest the market should MLB revenues recover.
I've wondered if the Red Sox will be less impacted than other teams by the economic fallout here because
Failing to anticipate a pandemic wiping out a season is not blowing it. Mookie has already made tens of millions of dollars so I don't feel too sorry for him. The lower level players that have maybe a 2-3 year window of playing in MLB will be more affected.
At least the Dodgers and Red Sox will be bidding for Mookie. It will come down to how long they believe the economic effect on team revenue will last. If They believe things will be back to normal by 2022, there shouldn't be too much of a discount from what he would have received without the pandemic.
Yeah, completely blowing it isn't fair, and there's no way he could have predicted this. I just wonder if he's kicking himself. I def don't feel bad for him, though.
This isn't Nomar turning down a 4/$60M extension then making a total of ~$34M the rest of his career, but it could wind up with the Red Sox last offer being more than Mookie ends up getting this winter. It's the risk you take choosing to maximize value over taking long term security. Can't blame Mookie for doing it, but can't really feel bad if it doesn't work out in his favor either, regardless of the reason why.
The pandemic is an unanticipated event, unlike an injury in kind, but in effect. It's not the thing that happened that's "blown it" but the choice and result. It would be hard to "anticipate" and injury as a 27 year old too.
Nomar was conning off of a 6.1 WAR season when he received the offer and at the time, A-Rod and Jeter were making $20Mish. I'm sure you remember them as being the Big Three for shortstops at the time. Injuries and his defensive skills going south in 2004, tanked his free agency for 2005.
They didn't deal with it in any real sense. The season went on despite players falling ill, including Babe Ruth. They did play a shortened season (126 games) but that was more due to the ongoing war efforts than the flu. They finished the World Series on September 11, the only time the Series has ever been entirely contested before October. In fact, an outbreak in Boston was partly attributed to the final game of the Series and the ensuing celebrations.
They may be very well able to resign Mookie at a lower salary in the new baseball economy and still stay below the $210 million threshold.
Yes that's a good point. Maybe Mookie's best deal will come in much lower, and thus be affordable to Boston. Of course, if he's coming in that low, a LOT of teams will be in on him at that price probably.
Which would then cause the price to go up.
What is the new baseball economy and how long will it last? If owners believe it will take five to ten years to get back to where MLB was in 2019, Mookie could very well be looking at $200M.
Logically, he shouldn't regret it at all. He would have been leaving at least $50M on the table compared to what he would have received when he hit the market in 2021. It was the right decision and he can't kick himself for not anticipating a pandemic. I could have converted my 401K into gold at the end of last year, but I didn't anticipate a pandemic, either.
