Mookie Betts

[LahoudOrBillyC]

With all that has gone wrong this year we have ... Mookie Betts.
 
It was hard for me, someone used to watching players like David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez, to grasp that Betts, while perhaps possessing no single overwhelming skill is nonetheless already as valuable as those guys in their prime because he does everything well.  He is one of the best players in the league at age 22.  He really should be an All-Star, though the process (and the Red Sox record) will work against him.  
 
The best position player, in terms of bWAR, on the Red Sox last three championships teams:
 
2004 Damon 4.2
2007 Ortiz 6.4
2013 Pedroia 6.3
 
Betts has 4.0 wins half way through the season.  This is one measure, sure, but ... Mookie Betts.
 
 
 
 

 

[chrisfont9]

With all that has gone wrong this year we have ... Mookie Betts.
 
It was hard for me, someone used to watching players like David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez, to grasp that Betts, while perhaps possessing no single overwhelming skill is nonetheless already as valuable as those guys in their prime because he does everything well.  He is one of the best players in the league at age 22.  He really should be an All-Star, though the process (and the Red Sox record) will work against him.  
 
The best position player, in terms of bWAR, on the Red Sox last three championships teams:
 
2004 Damon 4.2
2007 Ortiz 6.4
2013 Pedroia 6.3
 
Betts has 4.0 wins half way through the season.  This is one measure, sure, but ... Mookie Betts.
 

10th in the league. Also notable, it's about 1/3 defensive WAR, 2/3 offensive. Which makes it a bit less reliable, but still All Star level play.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

And that he's negative value on the basepaths.

 

[radsoxfan]

To increase the sample size in an effort to (somewhat) appease the WAR police, in 133 major league games, Mookie has accumulated 6.1 bWAR. 
 
The guy is really good at baseball. 

 

[HillysLastWalk]

Also note that his fWAR isn't as generous (2.8), but still all-star level.  And this isn't me actively misleading in any way!  This is just one measure!!
 
His K rates have been decreasing, and as of today he has:
 
56th best wOBA at .344
and 65th best wRC+ at 117
 
Those numbers are 10th and 11th if you include only center fielders (out of 25 center fielders that fangraphs qualifies).  He's basically Adam Jones with better walk and K rates.  Yet, Mookie has been steadily improving, so I expect him to exceed Adam's value and enter the upper-echelon of Center Fielders (this season and beyoned)
 
He was compared to Andrew McCutchen frequently before the season started, here's Andrew's stats after his Age 22 Rookie season:
 
108 games .286/.365/.471, 121 OPS+, 26 doubles, 9 triples, 12 homers, 22 stolen bases, 11% bb rate, 16.8% k rate, .363 wOBA, 122 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR, 2.3 bWAR
 
Mookie's career so far:
 
133 games, .286/.348/.456, 123 OPS+, 33 doubles, 6 triples, 14 homers, 20 stolen bases, 8.4% bb rate, 12.3% k rate, .351 wOBA, 122 wRC+, 4.6 fWAR, 6.1 bWAR

 

[Al Zarilla]

And that he's negative value on the basepaths.

Fangraphs has Betts rated fifth in MLB in BsR. These sites need to agree on a standard. Too much Betamax vs. VHS going on. 
 
So, a guy I kind of compare Betts with is Andrew McCutchen. Yes, Cutch. Fangraphs has Betts at 2.8 WAR, and McCutchen at 3.1. However, as pointed out, BBREF has Mookie at 4.0 and McCutchen at 2.8.

 

[bluefenderstrat]

The McCutchen comparisons don't seem out of line.

 

[snowmanny]

Remember the "Should The Sox Extend Mookie?" thread?

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/88568-should-the-sox-extend-mookie/

I'm thinking the price has already gone up quite a bit.

 

[MikeM]

Remember the "Should The Sox Extend Mookie?" thread?

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/88568-should-the-sox-extend-mookie/

I'm thinking the price has already gone up quite a bit.

 
Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here. A little over 3 weeks ago Mookie was still having his share of ugly atbats, while sporting a 2015 slash line of .234/.293/.366. The kid is also multiple seasons away from his first arby. That people in that thread were/are even seeing an arguable need for this franchise, with all our available resources mind you, to commit that early defies most grounded logic imo. 
 
Obsessing over the possibility we dig up a Holy Grail "value sign" to feather our cap with is cool and all, but the core reality that we essentially are also one of the last MLB teams that really have a need to sweat the "he turned out really good, so now he'll need to be paid more money" factor shouldn't get completely lost to the extent it seemingly does in that evaluation thought process. 

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

The McCutchen comps are definitely interesting. McCutchen had a few steady years from age 22-24 (OPS+ 121, 121, 130) before exploding at age 25 (OPS+ 162) and establishing a new baseline of becoming a top hitter in his league, putting up .400 OBPs and 500-550 SLG each of the next three years (this year has been a down year for McCutchen due to a really slow start which may have resulted from a knee injury. 
 
The comp makes sense, both Mookie and McCutchen are smallish, elite athlete CFs with surprising pull power, but McCutchen has really surpassed "very good for his size and position" and become an "elite for any player and position" type power hitter with similarly elite contact skills and batting eye (the raw power %s may look merely very good rather than great, but he's doing it in an era of decreased offense, in a park which suppresses right-handed pull power, and while being by far the best hitter on any team he's played for). Expecting a similar breakout from extremely good to Mike Trout, Jr. is a bit much for any player. Where Mookie has a chance to make up ground is on defense and on the basepaths, where McCutchen is merely average for his position. That Betts has looked good out there while basically learning CF at the major league level suggests that he could really be an asset in every phase of the game. The only thing it seems like he might not be able to do is pitch.
 
tl;dr: the comp makes sense but McCutchen experienced an offensive breakout that can't be expected from even the most promising young players.

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

 
Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves here. A little over 3 weeks ago Mookie was still having his share of ugly atbats, while sporting a 2015 slash line of .234/.293/.366. The kid is also multiple seasons away from his first arby. That people in that thread were/are even seeing an arguable need for this franchise, with all our available resources mind you, to commit that early defies most grounded logic imo. 
 

 
One reason I don't believe we are getting ahead of ourselves is that Betts is having an outstanding statistical season despite having struggles along the way.  Betts has had bad stretches and recovered.  He has learned a new position to the point where he one of the better defensive CF in the game, and his hit tool, if anything, seems to have underperformed.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Betts seems to be coming around nicely.  There is unfortunately a development process that all prospects must continue with when jumping to MLB.   Even Pedroia had a rough go to start.  Its not always the same for every player.  Betts started off great last year much like Ellsbury in 2007 when he was called up, then had on/off issues this year (much like Ellsbury in 2008) and now seems to have adjusted.  Pedey had a rough start at the end of 2006 and his first month or so in 2007 and then adjusted.   Too early to say what Betts true talent is but I think its safe to say he is better than a league average player and might be considerably more than that. Same with XB too of course. XB's MLB development may have taken a bit longer due to age and his origins.

 

[Rasputin]

We have all star caliber players aged 22 in center and at short.

We have the chance to add not one, but two very talented players at catcher.

We have a young pitcher who looks like he has the poise to exceed the most optimistic projections for him.

Good young players at positions where it's hard to find

 

[Ferm Sheller]

And a just-turned 27 All Star super sub, Ras. They're hard to find, too.

 

[Montana Fan]

 
One reason I don't believe we are getting ahead of ourselves is that Betts is having an outstanding statistical season despite having struggles along the way.  Betts has had bad stretches and recovered.  He has learned a new position to the point where he one of the better defensive CF in the game, and his hit tool, if anything, seems to have underperformed.

 
Imagine you falling for a CF'er.  Lol. 
 
Betts leads the Sox in extra base hits as well.  What's not to like about this kid?

 

[AbbyNoho]

 
Imagine you falling for a CF'er.  Lol. 
 
Betts leads the Sox in extra base hits as well.  What's not to like about this kid?

 
His Rubik's Cube time is okay, but not like record-breaking or anything.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

 
His Rubik's Cube time is okay, but not like record-breaking or anything.

He sucks then. Trade him. LOL.

 

[jscola85]

The most encouraging thing about all this is that he's not really getting all that lucky.  If he were posting a .400 BABIP like Holt I'd say to pump the brakes but everything about his peripherals suggests he's the real deal.  That's in part why Steamer and ZiPS believe his bat in the 2nd half will be pretty much exactly the same as it was during the 1st half.
 
WAR isn't perfect but it's pretty clear he's a 4.5-6 win player almost however you slice it.  Kudos to BROCKHOLT! but Mookie has been the MVP thus far.  For giggles, here's Betts' line vs. the CF pupu platter that the Sox used last year:
 
Betts - .283/.336/.463, 9 HR, 41 RBI, 43 R, 13 SB, 3.0 WAR, 
JBJ/Sizemore/Betts - .220/.288/.325, 8 HR, 63 RBI, 93 R, 20 SB, ~2.5 WAR

 

[Hagios]

Here's a question for people who played baseball at a higher level - is playing CF less tiring than playing 2nd base? I know that they are roughly comparable in terms of defensive value, but I wonder if playing a less fatiguing position helps his bat.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The thing about Betts is that if you look at each part of his toolkit, it looks good but not extraordinary. But when you start combining them, he quickly steps into elite company. Here are the numbers of 22-year olds with at least 300 PA who have done each of the following things in the post-integration era:
 
ISO of .170 or better -- 121
10 or more SB -- 149
K rate under 15% -- 212
75% or more of games in CF -- 51
 
all of the above -- 4
 
It's not an especially common combination of skills, and the minute you start looking for players who've displayed that combination at Mookie's level at Mookie's age, the names that come up are the kind you don't want to post here because you'll be accused of unrealistic kid-worship.

 

[smastroyin]

I think 2B is a bit more strenuous just due to everything that goes on with runners on base.  But, CF requires more effort for each play they make and they are necessarily involved in more outfield plays than LF or RF.
 
On the other hand, I wouldn't really endorse the idea that a lower effort position is resulting in better batting results, except maybe in cases like Hanley Ramirez where they intentionally change their body/training regimen due to a new position (for better or worse, frankly)

 

[joe dokes]

Here's a question for people who played baseball at a higher level - is playing CF less tiring than playing 2nd base? I know that they are roughly comparable in terms of defensive value, but I wonder if playing a less fatiguing position helps his bat.
 

 
Craig Biggio is the first player that comes to mind who might have an answer. (although I'm sure there are others).

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Here's a question for people who played baseball at a higher level - is playing CF less tiring than playing 2nd base? I know that they are roughly comparable in terms of defensive value, but I wonder if playing a less fatiguing position helps his bat.

 
I suppose it depends on how you define "tiring".  Physically, I don't think there's a ton of difference. There are different types of activity, but I think they balance out over the course of a game.  Mentally, though, I think 2B is much more draining.  More activity dealing with runners and positioning from hitter to hitter and even pitch to pitch.  Reaction times have to be quick and there's rarely time for adjusting or recovering from a bad jump like there can be in the OF.

 

[Max Power]

The thing about Betts is that if you look at each part of his toolkit, it looks good but not extraordinary. But when you start combining them, he quickly steps into elite company.  

 
That's how either Theo Epstein or Bill James once described JD Drew. Drew didn't really break out until he was 24, but the combination of a great batting eye, good power, good speed, and excellent defense compares very well with Mookie. Betts is already a better baserunner; let's hope he's also better at staying on the field.

 

[jscola85]

Mookie is a player with no holes in his game.  Being pretty good at everything and great at 1-2 things makes you elite.  The only subpar part of his game might be his arm and even that is not Damon/Ellsbury bad.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I think 2B is a bit more strenuous just due to everything that goes on with runners on base.  But, CF requires more effort for each play they make and they are necessarily involved in more outfield plays than LF or RF.
 
 

If second base is that tiring, Pedroia wouldn't be doing that little jump of his before every pitch. 

 

[In my lifetime]

If second base is that tiring, Pedroia wouldn't be doing that little jump of his before every pitch. 

 
This is baseball ---- other than pitcher and catcher, the most tiring thing is being out in the sun of couple of hours.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
This is baseball ---- other than pitcher and catcher, the most tiring thing is being out in the sun of couple of hours.

Are you not counting the many hours of work put in before the game?  BP, lifting, running, extra grounders, etc.  

 

[In my lifetime]

Are you not counting the many hours of work put in before the game?  BP, lifting, running, extra grounders, etc.  

 
I am just half-kidding by commenting on the fact that the difference of effort needed between playing 2B and CF is minuscule for a professional athlete.  Maybe if Mookie weighed as much as Panda it would have a significant impact -- he might not be able to run back and forth between innings and would just set up a chair in the green monster to cut down on the jogging to his position each inning.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think the "pretty good at everything" narrative is selling Mookie short.

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

Alex Dopp posted an article today on Betts' resurgence, and what are hopefully his long-term adjustments to his April-May slump:
 

Quite convincingly, Betts' outer-half ower has augmented toward previously unseen levels since the beginning of June... over his last 31 games, Betts has accumulated an ISO of .184 against pitches located to the outer-half of the plate, which is more than double what he managed from April-May. 
 
A big reason for Betts' new-found pop on outside pitches has been an uptick in quality of contact; his 27.9% line-drive rate since June 2 is significantly higher than 17.5% earlier this season. 

 

Pitchers came to the realization that Betts was prone to weak contact against stuff located away from his body, and they began attacking that area of the plate at an increased rate... in response, Betts has shifted from passive to aggressive at the outer-half, looking to drive pitches and stay compact through the zone. 

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

I think the "pretty good at everything" narrative is selling Mookie short.

Theo Epstein once made a similar comment about Dustin Pedroia.  If you write enough about how he is "good" at everything, you might miss the fact that he is a Hall of Fame caliber player.  Which Pedroia has been and Betts could be (by playing at this level for 12-15 years).

 

[Hagios]

Theo Epstein once made a similar comment about Dustin Pedroia.  If you write enough about how he is "good" at everything, you might miss the fact that he is a Hall of Fame caliber player.  Which Pedroia has been and Betts could be (by playing at this level for 12-15 years).

 
There was a great article on Grantland comparing Adam Dunn to Juan Pierre. Back in the "defense is 5% of the game" era, the sabermetric community valued Dunn over Pierre even though they had virtually identical career WARs.
 
 

Although WAR reveals that Pierre and Dunn were equally valuable to their teams, their teams weren’t equally generous to them. From a financial perspective, it was far better to be Dunn, who retired with $112.7 million in career earnings, almost twice Pierre’s $57.1 million take. When economist Matt Swartz studied spending on free agents in the Hardball Times Annual 2013, he found that defense, baserunning, and contact were all undervalued skills, and that walks weren’t, which helps explains the disparity. More’s the pity for Pierre. On the other hand, WAR reveals that Dunn and Pierre were both lucky to be as well known as they were; given that an average player amasses roughly two WAR in a single full season, Dunn’s and Pierre’s career totals aren’t particularly impressive. As Bill James once wrote, “Specialists and players who do two or three things well are overrated; players who do several things well are underrated.” Dunn’s power and walk rate and Pierre’s contact skills and speed made them more visible than the more well-rounded (but less eye-catching) recent retiree Mark Ellis, who produced far more WAR in far less playing time.

 
edit: I wonder if the market still undervalues well-rounded players? I doubt the FO types do, but it might be easier to market a player who hits a lot of home runs or steals a lot of bases.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

 
Craig Biggio is the first player that comes to mind who might have an answer. (although I'm sure there are others).

 
Robin Yount?

Pete Rose, to some extent

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Theo Epstein once made a similar comment about Dustin Pedroia.  If you write enough about how he is "good" at everything, you might miss the fact that he is a Hall of Fame caliber player.  Which Pedroia has been and Betts could be (by playing at this level for 12-15 years).

Well that's part of it. But I would also question whether Pedroia is merely a "good" folder at 2B, with a merely "good" hit tool and batting eye. Just because he's good at everything doesn't mean he's not REALLY F'ING GOOD at a few things. And same thing for Mookie.

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Well that's part of it. But I would also question whether Pedroia is merely a "good" folder at 2B, with a merely "good" hit tool and batting eye. Just because he's good at everything doesn't mean he's not REALLY F'ING GOOD at a few things. And same thing for Mookie.

Yes, agreed.  But its also true that we tend to overvalue (and overpay) people who are great at one thing and suck at several things (like Manny, and perhaps current Hanley), while a middle-of-the diamond player with a 115 OPS+ can be a superstar.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

Yes, agreed.  But its also true that we tend to overvalue (and overpay) people who are great at one thing and suck at several things (like Manny, and perhaps current Hanley), while a middle-of-the diamond player with a 115 OPS+ can be a superstar.

 
Slugging first basemen in the mold of Miguel Cabrera tend to be the most overpaid players, as pretty much every team feels like it absolutely needs one or more real middle-of-the-order bats and will pay for that scarcity, despite the fact that you can get equal performance in some other manner (a lesser bat at a premium defensive position, good defense/baserunning, catcher framing??? etc)

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Yes, agreed.  But its also true that we tend to overvalue (and overpay) people who are great at one thing and suck at several things (like Manny, and perhaps current Hanley), while a middle-of-the diamond player with a 115 OPS+ can be a superstar.

That I buy completely.

 

[JimBoSox9]

He was compared to Andrew McCutchen frequently before the season started, here's Andrew's stats after his Age 22 Rookie season:
 
108 games .286/.365/.471, 121 OPS+, 26 doubles, 9 triples, 12 homers, 22 stolen bases, 11% bb rate, 16.8% k rate, .363 wOBA, 122 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR, 2.3 bWAR
 
Mookie's career so far:
 
133 games, .286/.348/.456, 123 OPS+, 33 doubles, 6 triples, 14 homers, 20 stolen bases, 8.4% bb rate, 12.3% k rate, .351 wOBA, 122 wRC+, 4.6 fWAR, 6.1 bWAR

 

 
 

So, a guy I kind of compare Betts with is Andrew McCutchen. Yes, Cutch. Fangraphs has Betts at 2.8 WAR, and McCutchen at 3.1. However, as pointed out, BBREF has Mookie at 4.0 and McCutchen at 2.8.

 
 

The McCutchen comparisons don't seem out of line.

 
 

The McCutchen comps are definitely interesting. McCutchen had a few steady years from age 22-24 (OPS+ 121, 121, 130) before exploding at age 25 (OPS+ 162) and establishing a new baseline of becoming a top hitter in his league, putting up .400 OBPs and 500-550 SLG each of the next three years (this year has been a down year for McCutchen due to a really slow start which may have resulted from a knee injury. 
 
The comp makes sense, both Mookie and McCutchen are smallish, elite athlete CFs with surprising pull power, but McCutchen has really surpassed "very good for his size and position" and become an "elite for any player and position" type power hitter with similarly elite contact skills and batting eye (the raw power %s may look merely very good rather than great, but he's doing it in an era of decreased offense, in a park which suppresses right-handed pull power, and while being by far the best hitter on any team he's played for). Expecting a similar breakout from extremely good to Mike Trout, Jr. is a bit much for any player. Where Mookie has a chance to make up ground is on defense and on the basepaths, where McCutchen is merely average for his position. That Betts has looked good out there while basically learning CF at the major league level suggests that he could really be an asset in every phase of the game. The only thing it seems like he might not be able to do is pitch.
 
tl;dr: the comp makes sense but McCutchen experienced an offensive breakout that can't be expected from even the most promising young players.

 
If you woke up this morning and thought "man, I hope I can read a 2,000 word analysis of this exact comparison today"....you're in luck, courtesy of sosh.com:
 
http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/teams/al-east/boston-red-sox/mookie-and-the-cutch-betts-is-his-own-man/
 

As spring training was wrapping up, Mookie Betts found himself being compared to one of the best players in the game. At a quick glance, there are some obvious similarities between the young Boston Red Sox phenom and Andrew McCutchen, but as Dave Cameron pointed out shortly after the comparisons started, the transformation McCutchen went through is extremely rare and it is unlikely that Mookie will end up following the same offensive path.

 

That power is what will likely separate McCutchen and Betts over the course of their careers. Even if Mookie’s power doesn’t develop, he can still be an excellent hitter in his own right. With the difference in home run power and gaps in their walk and strikeout rates, it’s pretty clear they have different approaches at the plate. With that in mind, it is probably best to focus on what Mookie does well and to not get too hung up on a direct comparison.

 

[swingin val]

 
Slugging first basemen in the mold of Miguel Cabrera tend to be the most overpaid players, as pretty much every team feels like it absolutely needs one or more real middle-of-the-order bats and will pay for that scarcity, despite the fact that you can get equal performance in some other manner (a lesser bat at a premium defensive position, good defense/baserunning, catcher framing??? etc)

You probably could have picked a better slugging first baseman tonmale your point. Cabrera is perhaps the greatest hitter, not just slugger, of his generation, and he is not overpaid (at least not yet).

Maybe Prince Fielder is the better choice? Although his resurgence this year hurts his chances as most overpaid slugger.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

You probably could have picked a better slugging first baseman tonmale your point. Cabrera is perhaps the greatest hitter, not just slugger, of his generation, and he is not overpaid (at least not yet).

Maybe Prince Fielder is the better choice? Although his resurgence this year hurts his chances as most overpaid slugger.

 
Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols and Horseface come to mind.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Another possible ceiling comp for Betts, reaching way further back than McCutchen, might be Vada Pinson. Medium-range* but prolific power plus good speed equaled lots of doubles and triples and a fair number of steals. Middling BABIP for a fast guy because he hit the ball in the air a lot. Excellent contact skills, especially after his first few seasons (career K rate 11.5%). Mookie's walk rates will be somewhat better--that was probably the one weakness in Pinson's game. Pinson was also a fine, athletic CF in his youth, winning a GG at age 22. He was taller than Mookie but still a bit undersized at 5'11". He was a LHH, of course, so the comp breaks down there.
 
*Pinson's HR output was a bit goosed by Crosley Field; he was never really a 20+ guy. In his most prolific HR years, from age 23 to 26, he averaged almost 14 HR at home and just under 9 on the road.

 

[nvalvo]

 
According to the Wall Street Journal, Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts, a fifth-round draft pick in 2011, quickly rose through the minor league system, in part, because of how well he performed in daily gaming drills. At age 22, he is now considered one of the best young players in the game.
 

 
From an SBNation longform on neuroscouting. Link

 

[Al Zarilla]

Another possible ceiling comp for Betts, reaching way further back than McCutchen, might be Vada Pinson. Medium-range* but prolific power plus good speed equaled lots of doubles and triples and a fair number of steals. Middling BABIP for a fast guy because he hit the ball in the air a lot. Excellent contact skills, especially after his first few seasons (career K rate 11.5%). Mookie's walk rates will be somewhat better--that was probably the one weakness in Pinson's game. Pinson was also a fine, athletic CF in his youth, winning a GG at age 22. He was taller than Mookie but still a bit undersized at 5'11". He was a LHH, of course, so the comp breaks down there.
 
*Pinson's HR output was a bit goosed by Crosley Field; he was never really a 20+ guy. In his most prolific HR years, from age 23 to 26, he averaged almost 14 HR at home and just under 9 on the road.

Of course, we've already talked about the Toy Cannon, Jim Wynn. We won't like his BA, but his OBP is OK and his power was good. He even started out with the predecessor to the Astros, the Colt .45s! Great name for a baseball team.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1014313&position=OF
 
By the way, you may enjoy this Not in the Hall of Fame article that BBREF has highlighted on its Jimmy Wynn page. Pinson is in the author's list along with Wynn. Not that well written, but it gets you thinking.
 
http://www.notinhalloffame.com/baseball?limit=20&limitstart=0

 

[jscola85]

He was mentioned earlier, but Craig Biggio during his OF years feels like a good comp.  .280/.363/.433 triple slash, averaged 17 HRs per year and 24 stolen bases, with ~40 doubles a season.  A bit more patience and a bit less power, but similar total output at the plate.

 

[Detts]

I went back to find my first scouting reports on Betts when he was in Greenville as penance for my sins:
 
Detts

 


Posted 24 April 2013 - 11:59 PM

First game of the year for me as I wanted to see Montas.
 
*snip*
 
Vinicio is still small,however Betts is smaller.
 



Then, after he started to heat up:

 
Posted 11 June 2013 - 09:45 PM

SoxScout, on 11 Jun 2013 - 12:47 AM, said:

Detts, who has seem them in person, has posted here this year that Betts is smaller than Vinicio.

 
It's still the case...no growth spurt since I posted it earlier in the season.
 
He has one of those 'throw your whole body into it and swing from your heels' swings (not as uppercut as Pedroia) where he can punish mistake pitches, but it could also be enhanced by pitch recognition (no way to tell how advanced his recognition skills are from my limited games this year as there has been so much rain that I've been looking out for animals walking down the street 2 by 2)).
 
I would hold off on going nuts over him until he sees better pitching in Salem.  I learned my lesson with Jacobs as I loved his power when he was here but discounted his loooooooooooooooooong power swing when he guessed right on the pitch from low A pitchers fluffing his stats.
 


At least I got the height part correct

 

[Pumpsie]

Another possible ceiling comp for Betts, reaching way further back than McCutchen, might be Vada Pinson. Medium-range* but prolific power plus good speed equaled lots of doubles and triples and a fair number of steals. Middling BABIP for a fast guy because he hit the ball in the air a lot. Excellent contact skills, especially after his first few seasons (career K rate 11.5%). Mookie's walk rates will be somewhat better--that was probably the one weakness in Pinson's game. Pinson was also a fine, athletic CF in his youth, winning a GG at age 22. He was taller than Mookie but still a bit undersized at 5'11". He was a LHH, of course, so the comp breaks down there.
 
*Pinson's HR output was a bit goosed by Crosley Field; he was never really a 20+ guy. In his most prolific HR years, from age 23 to 26, he averaged almost 14 HR at home and just under 9 on the road.

Not a bad comp at all ...but Mookie's going to have a much better career than Pinson.  Heck, Mookie should have made the All-Star team THIS year.  He's 8th in WAR among ALL American League players, 13th overall.  I think that people are underrating him, even on this board.  He's only going to get better with experience.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Not a bad comp at all ...but Mookie's going to have a much better career than Pinson.  Heck, Mookie should have made the All-Star team THIS year.  He's 8th in WAR among ALL American League players, 13th overall.  I think that people are underrating him, even on this board.  He's only going to get better with experience.

 
A much better career than Pinson is a HoFer....we're talking 50-ish WAR, 1,365 runs scored, 485 doubles, 127 triples, 305 steals....7 years top 10 in the NL in hits and total bases....10 times top ten in SB. In his 7-year peak (1959-65), he was the sixth-best position player and fourth-best outfielder in the NL by fWAR.
 
If Mookie has as good a career as Pinson, we're going to be very, very happy. If he has a much better career, he'll be the best Sox CF since Tris Speaker. 

 

[Cuzittt]

Up on sonsofsamhorn.com, The second part of Mookie and the Cutch, focusing on baserunning and defense.

Betts is currently 18th in the majors with 13 steals and is rated 4th by fangraphs for value on the bases. By contrast, Andrew McCutchen currently has 5 steals and is 61st, and had 18 steals last year while ranking 52nd.

 

[grimshaw]

Dave Cameron ranks Betts as 11th in major league trade value in his annual list, just ahead of Joc Pederson.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-20-11/
 
Bogaerts is at 33.