Mookie Betts

mwonow

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2005
7,095
SoSH: where a discussion "about" Mookie Betts veers from Sheffield to Monsanto in under 10 posts!  :rolleyes:
 

mt8thsw9th

anti-SoSHal
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
17,120
Brooklyn
mwonow said:
SoSH: where a discussion "about" Mookie Betts veers from Sheffield to Monsanto in under 10 posts!  :rolleyes:
 
I'd be more scared if it wasn't obvious that the Monsanto reference was purely in jest. 
 
That said, I'd like if the players were more by-the-bootstraps, personal responsibility types and instead of giving the man a pizza, taught the man how to make a pizza.
 

kieckeredinthehead

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
8,635
mt8thsw9th said:
 
I'd be more scared if it wasn't obvious that the Monsanto reference was purely in jest. 
 
That said, I'd like if the players were more by-the-bootstraps, personal responsibility types and instead of giving the man a pizza, taught the man how to make a pizza.
We all would have benefitted more if Blake and Mookie had taught the man to hit two home runs in a game
 

shaggydog2000

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
11,483
kieckeredinthehead said:
We all would have benefitted more if Blake and Mookie had taught the man to hit two home runs in a game
 
Or best for the homeless man, they should have taught him to make pizza. Proverb style. 
 

dwhogan

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2011
323
The 'bury
BroodsSexton said:
The point is that it's pretty hard to make qualitative judgments about a person's character (i.e. that he is a "great person") because he gave a pizza to a homeless guy as part of a superstitious effort to hit home runs. I'm sure Mookie's the salt of the earth, but let's not get crazy here.

If you turn it around, the idea that he would need this little demonstration of correlation to conclude it's good to help the homeless (or that he only did it because it worked for Swihart!) is kind of messed up.
He's also a 22 year old kid. I am glad some of the asinine shit I did at 22 isn't on camera (that I know of...)
 

Average Reds

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 24, 2007
35,330
Southwestern CT
IdiotKicker said:
There is a lot of Gary Sheffield in that 7th inning home run swing. From a baseball perspective, that's a really good thing.
 
This is where I am. 
 
I remember his home run at the home opener this year, and the way he pulled his hands in and whipped the bat through the zone was eerily similar to Sheffield.  Every time he turns on an inside pitch, that's the vibe I still get.
 
Mookie is going to be a star for a long time.  Hopefully he'll be our star.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
Trotsky said:
extension?  I'd love to see both Xander and Mookie locked up for a long time together.  
 
Jumping in front of the "Boras doesn't allow his clients to forego FA" talk...
 
... strongly refuted the notion that he discourages all of his clients from signing extensions before reaching free agency. “I always let players make their decisions,” said Boras. “People say I always go to free agency. I can give you 15 players that did not go to free agency.” While he’s correct in stating that his clients don’t all reach free agency as early as possible, the vast majority of them do. Nonetheless, notable examples (via MLBTR’s Extension Tracker) such as Jered Weaver, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Pena and Ryan Madson each signed contracts that gave up free agent years in the guaranteed portion of their contracts.
 
 
The rest of that discussion could go into a Bogaerts thread.
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
4,948
Offer them both 8 years/$100 million? That's a load of money to turn down for a 22 year old. And they'd be inline for free agent pay days at their age 31 seasons.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
ehaz said:
Offer them both 8 years/$100 million? That's a load of money to turn down for a 22 year old. And they'd be inline for free agent pay days at their age 31 seasons.
 
That's a pretty player-friendly deal for Betts, seeing as how it would only buy out three FA years. Assuming he does about as well as McCutchen in arb, that means the Sox are committing to the equivalent of $25M/year for the three bought-out years. It's quite possible that could turn out to be a bargain, but it's unlikely to be a big one; the Sox would be taking on nearly all the risk. If they offer Betts that and his agent tells him to turn it down, he needs a new agent. 
 
An 8/100 deal for Xander would buy out four FA years, bringing the equivalent AAV down into the $20M range. At that point there's some risk for the player as well as the club. I can easily see Bogaerts rolling the dice on doing better than that, especially considering who his agent is.
 

lxt

New Member
Sep 12, 2012
525
Massachusetts
It depends on how the contracts are constructed. The team and the player must feel a benefit for the amount of money being paid at each particular point in the players career. The Sox were able to put together a team friendly contract with Pedroia and that should be a model going forward. I like the idea and if both players stay healthy and productive they can be great contracts for both. As Savin has indicated it may take a little more money to lock up Bogaerts.
 

RedSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 30, 2001
4,768
nattysez said:
 
Have to figure out whether this is televised at all.  I love Mookie, but driving all the way to Reno to watch him bowl would be excessive.
 
 
The stepladder finals are televised on ESPN. The qualifying rounds are streamed through the PBA's Xtra Frame subscription service.
 

BroodsSexton

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2006
12,630
guam
Could someone please make up a "Big Le-Betts-ski" t-shirt?  That would be awesome.  Or Mookie as Walter?  
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
58,909
San Andreas Fault
That is a real tough one. If Xander develops the power people expect him to, slight edge to him, partly because, as the author says, he gets extra credit for the premium fielding position. As for Mookie, that swing of his is lethal, while simple enough that it seems the type that wouldn't get lost  so he should avoid bad slumps. Xander's swing is definitely more complex and therefore more susceptible to slumps. Logic says Xander, but gut says Mookie.
 

pokey_reese

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 25, 2008
16,253
Boston, MA
chrisfont9 said:
Mookie seems to be at the center of the action more, which was my very unscientific way of deciding between two relative equals (that as a Sox fan I don't actually have to decide between, thankfully).
It's now at 52/48 Mookie, which has to be within the MoE at this sample size. Basically a toss-up. What a great question to have to argue over for the next few years.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,402
nattysez said:
 
 
 
Have to figure out whether this is televised at all.  I love Mookie, but driving all the way to Reno to watch him bowl would be excessive.
 
 
 
If only Lonborg had gone bowling instead of skiing.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
Fuck Sickels. I want both.
 
They're both still learning how to hit/adjust.
 
Plus, the question needs to take into account what the depth is behind them (even if only subconsciously) 
 
Moncada, Margot, Benintendi (possible CF)
 
Guerra, Marrero, Dubon (possible SS)
 
So I'll take Xander, even though he can't bowl.
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
29,152
Alamogordo
Wake's knuckle said:
Baseball is hard. Take the guy who's already hitting at a high level. Mookie!
Uhhhh, I know he didn't hit a lot of home runs this year... but Xander was 2nd in the AL in average and hits and 12th in doubles.  
 
That's pretty high level, IMHO.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
I think I'd go with Xander just because I believe he has more room for improvement than Betts, and losing Bogaerts on this team is more devastating than losing Betts due to positional scarcity in the system.  I would think that would be the case for most teams with a few exceptions.
 
I believe both will, in time, get closer to a walk percentage of 10-12% due to their batting eyes, minor league track record, and low k-rate.  i wouldn't be shocked if either reaches a .375 obp or higher next year.
 
Betts can probably get better in center from experience and getting quicker reads, but If he moves out of center due to JBJ taking over, that's a significant chunk of value.  Bogaerts may be at his defensive ceiling since his range and arm is basically what it is.  Though it's really hard to bet against his work ethic - since he is so open to coaching. 
 
They were both great on the bases last year.  Bogaerts picked his spots for steals really well, and Betts was a game changer and can probably get 30+
 
I would say Betts is probably close to his home run ceiling and will settle in to the Pedey-like 15-20 range.  The ISO could maybe go up a bit if he finds more gaps and learns pitchers more.
 
Xander has so much more room to grow here, that I think he will eventually over take Betts and get to.500+ slugging.  I'm interested in seeing how many of those hits to right he gives up in order to muscle out a few more.
 
Betts should get some bonus points for versatility as he could help out at 2nd (probably at a high level still).
 
Finally - the OF depth coming up through the ranks makes losing Betts to an injury less of a blow than losing Bogaerts.  It's gotta be a 3 WAR drop at least from Bogaerts to the next guy.
 

threecy

Cosbologist
SoSH Member
Sep 1, 2006
1,587
Tamworth, NH
grimshaw said:
Betts should get some bonus points for versatility as he could help out at 2nd (probably at a high level still).
This I think could be important.  Betts is 9 years younger than Pedroia.  Pedroia recently turned 32 and is signed for another 6 seasons, through age 38.
 
While he's still elite defensively, Pedoria's injuries could trigger the need for moving him to a less demanding position (or perhaps trigger the team to move him to a less demanding position so that he's more easily replaced when injured).  It could make sense in the next few years to swap a LF Betts with 2B Pedroia.
 
Biggio moved from 2B to OF in his mid 30s...Carew shifted from 2B at age 30...Molitor at age 34
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,472
Somewhere
threecy said:
Biggio moved from 2B to OF in his mid 30s...Carew shifted from 2B at age 30...Molitor at age 34
 
The question is: how many shifted back? That's the tricky part -- after not taking reps for several years in the infield, I don't think Betts could pull a reverse-Biggio or Yount.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,478
Melrose, MA
I question whether you would want to shift him back, given the recent leg breaking and the notoriously short careers of most 2B.
 

Pozo the Clown

New Member
Sep 13, 2006
745
threecy said:
While he's still elite defensively, Pedoria's injuries could trigger the need for moving him to a less demanding position...
 
What "less-demanding position" might that be?  As you stated, Pedroia's defense at second remains elite, that's of tremendous value to the Sox.  Further, Pedroia's all-out-on-every-play ethic is likely to remain intact regardless of any positional shift (unless you're thinking DH).  Pedey's style of play puts him at greater risk for injury regardless of position (excepting DH).  A new position (like LF) might lead to more injuries.  I could easily envision Dustin crashing into the Monster in a Pete-Reiser-like fashion.        
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
58,909
San Andreas Fault
threecy said:
This I think could be important.  Betts is 9 years younger than Pedroia.  Pedroia recently turned 32 and is signed for another 6 seasons, through age 38.
 
While he's still elite defensively, Pedoria's injuries could trigger the need for moving him to a less demanding position (or perhaps trigger the team to move him to a less demanding position so that he's more easily replaced when injured).  It could make sense in the next few years to swap a LF Betts with 2B Pedroia.
 
Biggio moved from 2B to OF in his mid 30s...Carew shifted from 2B at age 30...Molitor at age 34
Pedroia will move to another position from second base at the same age Joe Morgan did. Pedroia's not an outfielder. As far as getting hurt, is a player at any position except catcher really any more susceptible to injury than he is at other positions? Another thing, Pedroia is quick with those short legs of his, but he's probably not fast enough to be a good outfielder.
 

Pozo the Clown

New Member
Sep 13, 2006
745
Al Zarilla said:
Pedroia will move to another position from second base at the same age Joe Morgan did.
 
I'm assuming you're referring to Hall of Famer Joe Morgan (as opposed to Walpole Joe Morgan).  According to B-Ref http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morgajo02-field.shtml of the 2,527 games played by the other Joe Morgan, he played 1 game in LF in '67 (age 23); 1 game in LF in '68 (age 24); a whopping 12 games in LF and 2 games in CF in '69 (age 25); 3 games at 3B in '82 (age 38) and 5 games at DH in '84 (age 40).  Thus, I will interpret your post to mean that Pedey will remain a 2nd basemen 'til they tear the uni off of him.  Please correct me if I've misinterpreted your post. 
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

Don't know him from Adam
SoSH Member
Mar 14, 2006
9,534
Kernersville, NC
Pozo the Clown said:
 
I'm assuming you're referring to Hall of Famer Joe Morgan (as opposed to Walpole Joe Morgan).  According to B-Ref http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morgajo02-field.shtml of the 2,527 games played by the other Joe Morgan, he played 1 game in LF in '67 (age 23); 1 game in LF in '68 (age 24); a whopping 12 games in LF and 2 games in CF in '69 (age 25); 3 games at 3B in '82 (age 38) and 5 games at DH in '84 (age 40).  Thus, I will interpret your post to mean that Pedey will remain a 2nd basemen 'til they tear the uni off of him.  Please correct me if I've misinterpreted your post. 
I'd say you interpreted it correctly. Pedey isn't moving.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
58,909
San Andreas Fault
Pozo the Clown said:
 
I'm assuming you're referring to Hall of Famer Joe Morgan (as opposed to Walpole Joe Morgan).  According to B-Ref http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morgajo02-field.shtml of the 2,527 games played by the other Joe Morgan, he played 1 game in LF in '67 (age 23); 1 game in LF in '68 (age 24); a whopping 12 games in LF and 2 games in CF in '69 (age 25); 3 games at 3B in '82 (age 38) and 5 games at DH in '84 (age 40).  Thus, I will interpret your post to mean that Pedey will remain a 2nd basemen 'til they tear the uni off of him.  Please correct me if I've misinterpreted your post. 
Yes, the Joe Morgan I meant was the hall of fame second baseman. And yes, I'd be very surprised if the Red Sox ever asked Pedey to play the outfield, but they don't confide in me either. I don't know how Mookie feels about playing OF long term. Would he be happy as a lifetime outfielder? I don't know why not but who knows what makes people tick?
 

The Talented Allen Ripley

holden
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 2, 2003
12,723
MetroWest, MA
Pozo the Clown said:
 
I'm assuming you're referring to Hall of Famer Joe Morgan (as opposed to Walpole Joe Morgan).  According to B-Ref http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morgajo02-field.shtml of the 2,527 games played by the other Joe Morgan, he played 1 game in LF in '67 (age 23); 1 game in LF in '68 (age 24); a whopping 12 games in LF and 2 games in CF in '69 (age 25); 3 games at 3B in '82 (age 38) and 5 games at DH in '84 (age 40).  Thus, I will interpret your post to mean that Pedey will remain a 2nd basemen 'til they tear the uni off of him.  Please correct me if I've misinterpreted your post. 
 
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
Al Zarilla said:
Yes, the Joe Morgan I meant was the hall of fame second baseman. And yes, I'd be very surprised if the Red Sox ever asked Pedey to play the outfield, but they don't confide in me either. I don't know how Mookie feels about playing OF long term. Would he be happy as a lifetime outfielder? I don't know why not but who knows what makes people tick?
 
The question is what happens if age and injuries bring Pedey to the point where he's no longer got the mobility to be the second baseman he has been. If this happens in the last year or so of the contract, maybe you just live with it, or maybe he retires. But if happens sooner--say, by 2018--that could create a problem to be solved.
 
The trouble is that Pedroia really doesn't have another position, and he doesn't have the kind of physical profile where age is likely to change that. He's not going to age into a good OF's foot speed or a 3B or SS's arm (Pedroia's arm is almost magically accurate and consistent, but not really strong enough for the left side). His bat would be fringey at 1B or DH now and might be inadequate in 3-4 years. So he needs to stay at second as long as he possibly can.
 

keninten

New Member
Nov 24, 2005
588
Tennessee
I really think Pedey will lose his bat before his fielding. That long swing that alot of people thought would not make it in the big leagues will probably fall off fast once he loses the bat speed. He`s such a competitor he may retire when it happens regardless of his contract.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,124
Santa Monica
This Pedey 2018, 'do we move him off 2nd' hijack is silly...ranking right up there with Sean Too's idea of trading him last year.
 

threecy

Cosbologist
SoSH Member
Sep 1, 2006
1,587
Tamworth, NH
benhogan said:
This Pedey 2018, 'do we move him off 2nd' hijack is silly...ranking right up there with Sean Too's idea of trading him last year.
People have been talking about locking up Mookie long term.  Mookie is a decade younger than Pedroia, meaning that in that scenario, Mookie would still be with the Red Sox during Pedroia's decline and retirement.  People have also been talking about how Mookie could be bumped over to LF if JBJ can stick, and how he loses some of his value in LF.
 
He would still be very young in a few years time, so it's not unreasonable to think he could move back to his prior professional position.  It's also not unreasonable to think that, in a few years time, there may be a need for Pedroia to move to a position with less diving/jumping/etc.  I suspect his short stature precludes him from being an obvious choice to shift to 1B, and I also suspect his bat at that point may not be enough to warrant DHing.  Playing half the season in a small left field could be a good match.  Meanwhile, in this scenario, Mookie could be the logical choice to shift to 2B, and would be quite an asset if maintaining plus defensive and offensive abilities.
 

timlinin8th

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2009
1,521
keninten said:
I really think Pedey will lose his bat before his fielding. That long swing that alot of people thought would not make it in the big leagues will probably fall off fast once he loses the bat speed. He`s such a competitor he may retire when it happens regardless of his contract.
I get the logic behind this, but given the way Pedey kills himself in the field, I could see him hobbling himself trying to make a play that he shouldn't.

Regardless, he's locked up for a while, and the hope is that he manages to stay productive through it.

Back to Mookie, I think at this point he's put enough time into playing the outfield that transitioning him back to 2B would be a risky maneuver. Better to try some other completely separate option there than screwing with what is working - this team has tried that in the past with horrific results.
 

threecy

Cosbologist
SoSH Member
Sep 1, 2006
1,587
Tamworth, NH
timlinin8th said:
Back to Mookie, I think at this point he's put enough time into playing the outfield that transitioning him back to 2B would be a risky maneuver. Better to try some other completely separate option there than screwing with what is working - this team has tried that in the past with horrific results.
He just turned 23 years old. and it's not like his time at second base was that long ago.  Last year, Mookie played more minor league games at 2B than OF.  In addition last year, he started 14 MLB games at 2B.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
Pedey is so far above average at 2B (I'm not buying that he lost much this year), that even if he drops to merely average by the end of the contract, and hits at a wRC+ of 85, that's still a 1 to 2 win player.  Guys like Frank White or Willie Randolph who were below average or so-so with the bat but remained very good in the field, still had quite a bit of value towards the end.
 
He's not playing a different position if he drops that far - he'll be a part timer at worst, or injured.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
threecy said:
He just turned 23 years old. and it's not like his time at second base was that long ago.  Last year, Mookie played more minor league games at 2B than OF.  In addition last year, he started 14 MLB games at 2B.
 
That would be a valid argument if we needed a 2B now. But we don't, and unless things go very wrong very fast, we won't need one until it's been a pretty long time since Betts played 2B.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,510
Rogers Park
Savin Hillbilly said:
 
That would be a valid argument if we needed a 2B now. But we don't, and unless things go very wrong very fast, we won't need one until it's been a pretty long time since Betts played 2B.
 
Is this an argument to keep Betts fresh at 2B by giving him, e.g. 10-20 starts a year at the position when Pedroia is resting or injured?
 
I know Pedroia doesn't like to take games off, but now that he's turning 32, it might make sense to shoot for 145 games. 
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
nvalvo said:
 
Is this an argument to keep Betts fresh at 2B by giving him, e.g. 10-20 starts a year at the position when Pedroia is resting or injured?
 
I know Pedroia doesn't like to take games off, but now that he's turning 32, it might make sense to shoot for 145 games. 
 
If they weren't giving him starts this year while Pedroia was out and they had hot JBJ, Castillo, Holt and De Aza all on the roster, I can't see them giving Mookie fill-in starts at 2B next year or beyond either.