Most impressive stat from Brady era

[InstaFace]

I think "will look small" probably overstates it, but with how things have gone the last 20 years, I can see that being more reachable than the others.

Also, that post-turning-40 career stats, that's a HOF career right there. Someone lands on the scene, plays 5-6 seasons and burns out but with 3 SBs, 2 titles, gaudy passing stats - that's being voted in. All on its own. Show me the next cyborg who can do THAT at those ages.

 

[Import78]

I think some of those records will go down, particularly yards and TDs. Yes the numbers are huge, but 17 games now could turn into 18 or more and especially with passing stats increasing and longer careers I think they go down eventually. I don't think the title games/superbowl MVPs etc go down in my lifetime.

 

[BaseballJones]

Brady has played in 10 (!!!!) Super Bowls. No other active QB has played in more than 2, and here's the list of active QBs that have played in 2 Super Bowls:

Russell Wilson
Patrick Mahomes

That's it. The only other active QBs that have played in even 1 Super Bowl are: Flacco, Stafford, Garoppolo (though he's been to three, two as a backup with NE), Goff, Ryan, Foles, Rodgers, and Burrow.

Garoppolo is amazing....2x SB winner, 3x Super Bowl appearances, but only one start. He's had a pretty awesome career if you stop and think about it, even though I'm sure it hasn't quite gone the way he's envisioned.

 

[m0ckduck]

Will they though? I mean, to get to 651 touchdown passes, you'd have to average 40 a year for more than 16 seasons. If you average . That's a LONG career in the NFL, even by the new model. I mean, there have been more guys doing it well late in their careers, but you have to be really healthy and really amazing for a really long time to get there. Last year the top 5 guys in TD passes had 43, 41, 38, 37, and 37, or an average of 39 per. So you'd have to be in the top 5 in TD passes (basically) every year. The next 5 (so #s 6-10) had 37, 37, 36, 34, and 33, or an average of 35 per. 651 divided by 35 is 18 1/2, so you'd need to average 35 TD passes over 18.5 seasons.

651 is a HUMONGOUS number.

The catch is that, to put up huge numbers season after season, a QB generally needs to be burn teams with peak athleticism as well. And it's hard to picture guys like Mahomes, Allen, etc being able to maintain their style of play for 12+ seasons— there's too many big hits, too many awkward (albeit amazing) throws where they are being dragged to the ground and torquing every muscle to get the ball downfield to a receiver, etc. Yes, conditioning and sports medicine are getting better all the time, and, yes, those guys are freak athletes... but I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[johnmd20]

Will they though? I mean, to get to 651 touchdown passes, you'd have to average 40 a year for more than 16 seasons. If you average . That's a LONG career in the NFL, even by the new model. I mean, there have been more guys doing it well late in their careers, but you have to be really healthy and really amazing for a really long time to get there. Last year the top 5 guys in TD passes had 43, 41, 38, 37, and 37, or an average of 39 per. So you'd have to be in the top 5 in TD passes (basically) every year. The next 5 (so #s 6-10) had 37, 37, 36, 34, and 33, or an average of 35 per. 651 divided by 35 is 18 1/2, so you'd need to average 35 TD passes over 18.5 seasons.

651 is a HUMONGOUS number.

Seriously.

651 is the opposite of pretty small. Players might be able to play longer going forward. But to be elite for over 15 years? It is going to be impossible for many.

 

[Hoya81]

If the league eventually goes to a 18th regular season game, some of those records become a little more reachable, although still a steep climb.

 

[tims4wins]

What is going to make it impossible for others to catch him, aside from him playing to 45, is that he has not missed a single game of his career to a non-season ending injury. Every other QB in the league gets banged up and misses games. Brady never has. That adds up.

 

[rodderick]

The yardage record is the most reachable one. Wins is never getting touched, playoff wins I'd be surprised if anyone ever got within 10. TDs maybe I could see getting surpassed, but it'll take a long while.

 

[Remagellan]

I think two things may ensure that none of his records are ever eclipsed: one, QBs are going to continue to be paid an increasingly astronomical amount as the NFL continues to rake it in and the cap increases, and two, more and more information about the dangers of CTE will make clear the risk posed by a long career, both of which will result in more QBs deciding to choose Andrew Luck's path of early retirement rather than Tom's path of playing forever. Of course, all bets are off if the NFL continues its efforts to protect QBs to the point that they actually put flags on them and adopts a "flag football" rule for sacks/"tackling" QBs.

 

[Cotillion]

I think two things may ensure that none of his records are ever eclipsed: one, QBs are going to continue to be paid an increasingly astronomical amount as the NFL continues to rake it in and the cap increases, and two, more and more information about the dangers of CTE will make clear the risk posed by a long career, both of which will result in more QBs deciding to choose Andrew Luck's path of early retirement rather than Tom's path of playing forever. Of course, all bets are off if the NFL continues its efforts to protect QBs to the point that they actually put flags on them and adopts a "flag football" rule for sacks/"tackling" QBs.

Funny enough if they did go the flag route it would actually hinder some of these QBs' stats as getting the flag off may be an easier ask than dragging down some of the bigger more athletic QBs that used to escape and then sling a 20 yarder/TD etc...

 

[Ralphwiggum]

The truly unreachable records that Brady has are all of the career Super Bowl records (appearances, wins, yards, TDs). Although I agree that regular season wins, TDs and yards are pretty far out there as well.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Someone wrote this already in this forum, not this thread. Brady's median season as a starter in NE (so excluding his clipboard year and ACL year) is 12-4 with a loss in the AFC Championship Game. The averages are slightly better than that actually, but those are the closest whole numbers. So...for every season that was worse than that, there was a season better than that. That was his typical year out of 18 seasons.

He missed the playoffs once and went to nine Super Bowls. I can't imagine anyone ever having that kind of ratio again.