Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread

E5 Yaz

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I just don't believe the Pirates are willing to deal 5 years of Jones unless they're just throwing the idea of it out there to see if a desperate team gives them a crazy offer. I think he has the kind of potential where he could have TJ surgery next year and still get the kinds of offers being discussed here in three years when he still has two years of control left.
I wouldn't be surprised if they let that leak after seeing what the White Sox got for Crochet. If some team wants to step up like that, they'd consider it
 

billy ashley

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Just saying Yoshida and Castillo both have contracts that expire in 2027. Yoshida's 117 WRC+ would have been like the third highest on the M's among guys with 400 PAs. If Boston kicks in some money...

I know there is no way they'd do that, but I honestly don't love the idea of spending much if anything on Castillo. He's a solid pitcher trending downward at 21 AAV. I know the pitching market is crazy right now, but in Boston this guy probably has an ERA around 4.60 last year. That may be worth 21 million in 2024, but I'm not in love with the idea of trading assets for the privilege of doing so.
 

radsoxfan

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Castillo is fine as a salary dump, for a partiall subsidized Yoshida/mediocre prospects etc. Otherwise, no thanks.

Would pretty much be an admission we are out on the rest of the starters but that's not much of a surprise at this point.
 

Hank Scorpio

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-
Crawford
Castillo
ERA / xFIP 4.36 / 4.35 3.64 / 3.82
WHIP 1.12 1.17
K/BB 3.4 3.7
WAR 2.0 1.8
OBA/OPS .223 / .702 .238 / .705
H/9 7.6 8.1
HR/9 1.7 (2.27 Road) 1.3 (1.49 Road)
BB/9 2.5 2.4
K/9 8.6 9.0
Flyball % 49.4% 42.0%
Linedrive % 17.6% 18.7%
Hard Hit % 28.8% 31.9%


Their numbers are actually pretty close, except Crawford gave up a bunch more HR. I don't see Castillo as adding much to our rotation if you think Crawford can bring his HR total down a bit.
 

Bosoxman2004

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More smoke about Luis Castillo. From what Morosi’s saying, sounds more like a salary clearing move than a Casas trade, which makes more sense.

“The Mariners, the idea would be clearing some money to be able to then add a bat, either in this trade itself or in other moves.”

View: https://twitter.com/bossportsgordo/status/1867083870547419564?s=46
I personally think any pitcher from Seattle not named Woo would be risky, from what I can tell the other 4 have EXTREMELY better numbers in Seattle than on the road. The risk however may be lessened when our PBO is a former pitcher and Bailey seems to know his stuff too.

But man those splits are pretty ugly from Seattle pitching.
 

Bosoxman2004

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Just saying Yoshida and Castillo both have contracts that expire in 2027. Yoshida's 117 WRC+ would have been like the third highest on the M's among guys with 400 PAs. If Boston kicks in some money...

I know there is no way they'd do that, but I honestly don't love the idea of spending much if anything on Castillo. He's a solid pitcher trending downward at 21 AAV. I know the pitching market is crazy right now, but in Boston this guy probably has an ERA around 4.60 last year. That may be worth 21 million in 2024, but I'm not in love with the idea of trading assets for the privilege of doing so.
Yeah I want Yoshida off this team because I don't think he adds anything to what they already have but even then I don't want Castillo for him. I just don't think Castillo road splits show him being an improvement over anyone we already have at a substantially lower AAV.

My above comment I also think is moot because I think Seattle may not even want Yoshida, although he would be perfect for their shift away from high K guys they said they were doing following the Suarez deal last year.
 

chrisfont9

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I personally think any pitcher from Seattle not named Woo would be risky, from what I can tell the other 4 have EXTREMELY better numbers in Seattle than on the road. The risk however may be lessened when our PBO is a former pitcher and Bailey seems to know his stuff too.

But man those splits are pretty ugly from Seattle pitching.
Gilbert's home/away split is nothing much. Kirby is pretty solid on the road. Also, I don't think we should assume his Fenway numbers (in the event of a trade) would just be his away numbers. Presumably a guy of that quality would settle into the environment and figure some things out. A guy's away splits are always parks he isn't too attuned to.
 

Bosoxman2004

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Gilbert's home/away split is nothing much. Kirby is pretty solid on the road. Also, I don't think we should assume his Fenway numbers (in the event of a trade) would just be his away numbers. Presumably a guy of that quality would settle into the environment and figure some things out. A guy's away splits are always parks he isn't too attuned to.
Or it could be something specific about T-Mobile Park in Seattle (Like the rumored Batter's backdrop) that has all of these guys having better numbers there than on the road. Not sure what that is but I would trust Breslow and Bailey should know beforehand.
 

Bosoxman2004

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Gilbert's home/away split is nothing much. Kirby is pretty solid on the road. Also, I don't think we should assume his Fenway numbers (in the event of a trade) would just be his away numbers. Presumably a guy of that quality would settle into the environment and figure some things out. A guy's away splits are always parks he isn't too attuned to.
Gilbert's splits
[TH]Split[/TH] [TH]W[/TH] [TH]L[/TH] [TH]W-L%[/TH] [TH]ERA[/TH] [TH]G[/TH] [TH]GS[/TH] [TH]GF[/TH] [TH]CG[/TH] [TH]SHO[/TH] [TH]SV[/TH] [TH]IP[/TH] [TH]H[/TH] [TH]R[/TH] [TH]ER[/TH] [TH]HR[/TH] [TH]BB[/TH] [TH]IBB[/TH] [TH]SO[/TH] [TH]HBP[/TH] [TH]BK[/TH] [TH]WP[/TH] [TH]BF[/TH] [TH]WHIP[/TH] [TH]SO9[/TH] [TH]SO/W[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH]
5 5 .500 2.49 16 16 0 0 0 0 101.1 69 32 28 11 15 1 115 2 0 6 386 0.829 10.2 7.67
4 7 .364 3.94 17 17 0 1 0 0 107.1 79 51 47 15 22 0 105 2 0 5 417 0.941 8.8 4.77


Kirby:
[TH]Split[/TH] [TH]W[/TH] [TH]L[/TH] [TH]W-L%[/TH] [TH]ERA[/TH] [TH]G[/TH] [TH]GS[/TH] [TH]GF[/TH] [TH]CG[/TH] [TH]SHO[/TH] [TH]SV[/TH] [TH]IP[/TH] [TH]H[/TH] [TH]R[/TH] [TH]ER[/TH] [TH]HR[/TH] [TH]BB[/TH] [TH]IBB[/TH] [TH]SO[/TH] [TH]HBP[/TH] [TH]BK[/TH] [TH]WP[/TH] [TH]BF[/TH] [TH]WHIP[/TH] [TH]SO9[/TH] [TH]SO/W[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH]
6 5 .545 3.06 14 14 0 0 0 0 82.1 73 29 28 5 10 0 84 5 0 3 333 1.008 9.2 8.40
8 6 .571 3.89 19 19 0 0 0 0 108.2 108 53 47 17 13 0 95 2 1 2 445 1.114 7.9 7.31


Bryce Miller
[TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH]
6 3 .667 1.96 16 16 0 0 0 0 96.1 61 22 21 6 23 1 111 2 0 1 366 0.872 10.4 4.83
6 5 .545 4.07 15 15 0 0 0 0 84.0 70 40 38 15 22 0 60 1 0 1 338 1.095 6.4 2.73


Castillo
[TH]Split[/TH] [TH]W[/TH] [TH]L[/TH] [TH]W-L%[/TH] [TH]ERA[/TH] [TH]G[/TH] [TH]GS[/TH] [TH]GF[/TH] [TH]CG[/TH] [TH]SHO[/TH] [TH]SV[/TH] [TH]IP[/TH] [TH]H[/TH] [TH]R[/TH] [TH]ER[/TH] [TH]HR[/TH] [TH]BB[/TH] [TH]IBB[/TH] [TH]SO[/TH] [TH]HBP[/TH] [TH]BK[/TH] [TH]WP[/TH] [TH]BF[/TH] [TH]WHIP[/TH] [TH]SO9[/TH] [TH]SO/W[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH]
7 5 .583 3.15 16 16 0 0 0 0 97.0 87 35 34 12 18 1 107 3 0 0 391 1.083 9.9 5.94
4 7 .364 4.25 14 14 0 0 0 0 78.1 71 38 37 13 29 1 68 2 0 0 328 1.277 7.8 2.34


These are ALL substantial splits IMO
 

Apisith

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I would really like to convert Abreu, Crawford and another prospect into Kirby, and give him an extension. Our rotation would have 2 legitimate #1s, we would have them locked up for multiple years. Abreu is surplus to requirements given Anthony. After extending Crochet and Kirby, we would be close to the CBT limit. And then give Anthony 9/$175m.

Anthony's proposed extension:
Year 1: 0.7m
Year 2: 0.7m
Year 3: 0.7m
Year 4: 10m
Year 5: 15m
Year 6: 20m
Year 7: 35m
Year 8: 35m
Year 9: 35m
 
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Yaz4Ever

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Man, now I'm having pipe dreams about Tatis on our roster. Locked in until 2034 at a VERY reasonable deal (after the Soto signing). I know it's fantasy, but wow would that make for an offseason acquisition.
 

BigSoxFan

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Man, now I'm having pipe dreams about Tatis on our roster. Locked in until 2034 at a VERY reasonable deal (after the Soto signing). I know it's fantasy, but wow would that make for an offseason acquisition.
I strongly doubt SD would be interested but if they actually were, I think Sox and Padres match up well.

You obviously start with Anthony and then offer some cheap controllable talent from the MLB team, say Casas and Crawford. Then, they’d probably want a minors lotto ticket or two. Say Bleis.

You then backfill the holes in FA with Bregman/Walker to replace Casas and maybe Buehler to replace Crawford.

Duran (CF)
Tatis (RF)
Devers (1B)
Bregman (3B)
Yoshida (DH)
Story (SS)
Abreu (LF) - or swap Tatis to LF
Grissom (2B)
Wong (C)

And you still have Mayer and Campbell on the farm to dream on and backfill for injuries.
 

Margo McCready

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Boy, would moving Casas or Abreu for Castillo be colossally disappointing. If anything, I’d be looking to give the “loves pitching in cold weather” and QO-less Buehler a pillow contract because I’m not convinced any of these guys outside the prohibitively expensive Burns (money) or Jared Jones (prospects) will be any better better than Kutter Crawford moving forward. Crochet entering the fold makes meeting Seattle’s demands for their younger and better starters completely unnecessary, IMO.

I’d be looking to turn Abreu and Yoshida into a RHH masher to DH and fill in on any of the the corners. Add one more high leverage arm to the pen and that’s a team that can go all the way right there.

L Duran CF
R Campbell LF
L Devers 3B
R (RHH masher) DH
L Casas 1B
R Grissom 2B
L Anthony RF
R Story SS
R Wong C

Narvaez C
Romy/Hamilton IF
Rafaela IF/OF
Refsnyder OF

Crochet
Houck
Bello
Buehler
Crawford/Giolito

Priester/Fitts/Criswell

Slaten
Hendricks
Chapman
Whitlock
(One more hi-lev arm)
Winkowski
Guerrero
Etc…

Sure, this may be putting pressure on Anthony and Campbell, but I really expect that by mid May these two will rise to the occasion and be much more Jackson Merrill and much less Jackson Holliday. If that’s not how it works out for either of them or for Grissom in 2025, then Rafaela and a Romy/Hamilton platoon buys time to make a pivot if they themselves don’t run with the opportunity to be the solution.
 

bosockboy

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I’m not saying I’d fully support it, but there is serious one stop shopping opportunities with St. Louis. They are openly looking to move Arenado and Gray to dump salary. Gray at 2/60 is a good short term solution as a rotation add. And Arenado you’d be counting on a change of scenery bump, not totally sold on it but I could be convinced.

Send Yoshida and low level prospects for both, absorb both their salaries and try to get Helsley in the deal also.
 

chawson

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Full NTC on both, fwiw.
I’m skeptical about Gray lifting his, after wanting explicitly to sign with the Cards last year. We’re on Arenado’s list of teams he’d accept a trade to. (It’s also seeming more like Arenado’s politely requested a trade, now that Mozeliak’s talked about it so openly.)

With Crochet in the fold I’m a lot more into to the idea of acquiring one of these fading ace types as a #2 (Castillo, Gray, Valdez), but it still seems not quite like them.

I wonder if the Twins are listening on Pablo López. They reportedly have to stay at $130M in payroll.
 

bosockboy

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I’m skeptical about Gray lifting his, after wanting explicitly to sign with the Cards last year. We’re on Arenado’s list of teams he’d accept a trade to. (It’s also seeming more like Arenado’s politely requested a trade, now that Mozeliak’s talked about it so openly.)

With Crochet in the fold I’m a lot more into to the idea of acquiring one of these fading ace types as a #2 (Castillo, Gray, Valdez), but it still seems not quite like them.

I wonder if the Twins are listening on Pablo López. They reportedly have to stay at $130M in payroll.
I think Gray would; they are tearing it down and are going to lose 90-100 games. Not what he signed on for.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Something around Arenado - Yoshida makes a lot of sense, for the Sox at least, but I’m not sure what’s in it for the Cardinals, especially if their main goal is to shed payroll. Something like Arenado & Gray for Yoshida, Crawford, and Hamilton start to look reasonable? Not sure how it looks in BTV, and then there are the issues with Grays NTC and contract- imagine he’d want that 27 option picked up which makes him 3/90 and a lot less interesting.

Inagine Cards would want more prospect capital or someone like Duran and guess Arenado probably wants a more defined role than Sox could offer, though.
 

nvalvo

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Something around Arenado - Yoshida makes a lot of sense, for the Sox at least, but I’m not sure what’s in it for the Cardinals, especially if their main goal is to shed payroll. Something like Arenado & Gray for Yoshida, Crawford, and Hamilton start to look reasonable? Not sure how it looks in BTV, and then there are the issues with Grays NTC and contract- imagine he’d want that 27 option picked up which makes him 3/90 and a lot less interesting.
FWIW, BTV says:

-1.4 Gray (presumably without the option picked up)
-20.7 Arenado (there is some money from the Rockies that I suspect is not included in this number)

-25.8 Yoshida
 

Beomoose

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I strongly doubt SD would be interested but if they actually were, I think Sox and Padres match up well.

You obviously start with Anthony and then offer some cheap controllable talent from the MLB team, say Casas and Crawford. Then, they’d probably want a minors lotto ticket or two. Say Bleis.

You then backfill the holes in FA with Bregman/Walker to replace Casas and maybe Buehler to replace Crawford.

Duran (CF)
Tatis (RF)
Devers (1B)
Bregman (3B)
Yoshida (DH)
Story (SS)
Abreu (LF) - or swap Tatis to LF
Grissom (2B)
Wong (C)

And you still have Mayer and Campbell on the farm to dream on and backfill for injuries.
How about a giga-trade for Tatis and Cease?
 

Norm loves Vera

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I have been thinking about Montgomery with the Dbacks. It's clear he is being shopped and the owner has publicly called his signing last year a mistake. Monty opted in on $22.5 for this season. I wonder if we could package Yoshida in a trade of bad contracts.
 

Jimbodandy

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"Don't worry about trading away the future, they're going to still add pieces" is turning into "they're still not spending money, but they will cannibalize what's left of the top prospects for talent" very quickly.

Sign a pitcher. Stop throwing nickels around like manhole covers please.
 

BeantownIdaho

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I would really like to convert Abreu, Crawford and another prospect into Kirby, and give him an extension. Our rotation would have 2 legitimate #1s, we would have them locked up for multiple years. Abreu is surplus to requirements given Anthony. After extending Crochet and Kirby, we would be close to the CBT limit. And then give Anthony 9/$175m.

Anthony's proposed extension:
Year 1: 0.7m
Year 2: 0.7m
Year 3: 0.7m
Year 4: 10m
Year 5: 15m
Year 6: 20m
Year 7: 35m
Year 8: 35m
Year 9: 35m
I'm not a wizard or anything, but does your math add up to 9/175? On a related note, why would you give that contract extension to a guy who has not played at the MLB level? Seems we need to see what we have against MLB pitching first before we start handing out Rusney contracts.
 

bosockboy

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I'm not a wizard or anything, but does your math add up to 9/175? On a related note, why would you give that contract extension to a guy who has not played at the MLB level? Seems we need to see what we have against MLB pitching first before we start handing out Rusney contracts.
The Jackson Chourio model. Worked well for the Brewers.
 

BeantownIdaho

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Someone please try to talk me into Arenado.... He will be 34 this season...3 years left at around 90 million...he has declined considerably... and fans want to give them players like Abreu, Yoshida, etc.
 

Apisith

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I'm not a wizard or anything, but does your math add up to 9/175? On a related note, why would you give that contract extension to a guy who has not played at the MLB level? Seems we need to see what we have against MLB pitching first before we start handing out Rusney contracts.
Yeah, I made a mistake. Apologies. Initially I put 10/$175m, corrected the years but didn’t reduce the total sum while adjusting the yearly figures. The extension would be 9/$152m (including 3 minimum years) covering ages 21-29.
 

radsoxfan

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FWIW, BTV says:

-1.4 Gray (presumably without the option picked up)
-20.7 Arenado (there is some money from the Rockies that I suspect is not included in this number)

-25.8 Yoshida
I didn't realize Gray's contract was 10M, 25M, 35M. St. Louis got serious value out of year 1, he was pretty good.

Gray was bad on the Yankees, but I'm not sure we should overweight that. 2/60 he doesn't seem like a bad 2nd starter acquisition if he just costs a subsidized Yoshida and non-prospects.
 

radsoxfan

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Someone please try to talk me into Arenado.... He will be 34 this season...3 years left at around 90 million...he has declined considerably... and fans want to give them players like Abreu, Yoshida, etc.
Yoshida is not very good and his contract is significantly underwater, like Arenado. I don't think anyone wants to trade anything of value for him.

I'm not sold on Arenado either, but if it's even a consideration, I have to imagine the Cardinals would pay a big chunk of his salary or we would dump bad contracts on them.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Someone please try to talk me into Arenado.... He will be 34 this season...3 years left at around 90 million...he has declined considerably... and fans want to give them players like Abreu, Yoshida, etc.
Let's talk everyone else out of Arenado. He has nearly identical underlying offensive stats as Verdugo over the last two years. And he's old and expensive.
 

8slim

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Castillo is fine as a salary dump, for a partiall subsidized Yoshida/mediocre prospects etc. Otherwise, no thanks.

Would pretty much be an admission we are out on the rest of the starters but that's not much of a surprise at this point.
Agree completely. I don't want him, largely because it means the store is closed in regards to starters. And that'd suuuuck.
 

BaseballJones

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Yoshida is not very good and his contract is significantly underwater, like Arenado. I don't think anyone wants to trade anything of value for him.

I'm not sold on Arenado either, but if it's even a consideration, I have to imagine the Cardinals would pay a big chunk of his salary or we would dump bad contracts on them.
Yoshida is perfectly fine. 1.4 bWAR, 112 ops+

Obviously not an all-star or anything like that, but he's better than "not very good".
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Trading Vaughn Grissom for an expensive, aging SP correlates very strongly with said SP winning a Cy Young the following year. Maybe the Red Sox should try that?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Let's talk everyone else out of Arenado. He has nearly identical underlying offensive stats as Verdugo over the last two years. And he's old and expensive.
He’s basically a healthier Trevor Story. Rockies are paying a chunk of his salary; excellent defensively. I think the idea is that his presence would allow Devers and Casas to DH more. He’s not a perfect fit; but he’s a much better fit on the roster than Yoshida.
 

Yo La Tengo

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He’s basically a healthier Trevor Story. Rockies are paying a chunk of his salary; excellent defensively. I think the idea is that his presence would allow Devers and Casas to DH more. He’s not a perfect fit; but he’s a much better fit on the roster than Yoshida.
I don't think the Trevor Story comparison is a great sales pitch. As for Yoshida, he's had a better OPS than Arenado each of the last two years. Arenado's offensive trend line makes the idea of trading for his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons pretty scary.
 

amfox1

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As for Yoshida, he's had a better OPS than Arenado each of the last two years. Arenado's offensive trend line makes the idea of trading for his age 34, 35, and 36 seasons pretty scary.
Yoshida 23-24 oWAR 1.8/1.4
Yoshida 23-24 dWAR -1.1/-0.9

Arenado 23-24 oWAR 2.3/1.9
Arenado 23-24 dWAR 0.3/1.0
 

thestardawg

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Luis Perales - 21 years old, 2.94 era, 15.0 k/9 in the minors this year. Several years away. Projected upside is as a #2 starter.

Richard Fitts - 24 years old, did very well for Boston in a few starts this year

Quinn Priester - stats aren't great but he's a former first round pick of Pittsburgh with potential upside

I'm not suggesting the Sox are overflowing with pitching prospects. But they have a few interesting guys.
Ill give you Perales, however he is coming off of TJ surgery. Hopefully he recovers.

Maybe Fitts will be an end of the rotation starter. Maybe.

Priester was a bust for the Pirates. Yes his velocity and stuff improved when Bailey and gang got ahold of him, but that's a very small sample size.

The pitching cupboard is pretty bare here. in the minor leagues.
 

Max Power

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Yoshida 23-24 oWAR 1.8/1.4
Yoshida 23-24 dWAR -1.1/-0.9

Arenado 23-24 oWAR 2.3/1.9
Arenado 23-24 dWAR 0.3/1.0
What's your point? Yoshida is a better offensive player than Arenado and would have a higher oWAR if he played third base.
 

moondog80

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Let's talk everyone else out of Arenado. He has nearly identical underlying offensive stats as Verdugo over the last two years. And he's old and expensive.
We simply can’t judge an Arenado deal without knowing the details, particularly the money involved. And the corresponding moves.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Yoshida 23-24 oWAR 1.8/1.4
Yoshida 23-24 dWAR -1.1/-0.9

Arenado 23-24 oWAR 2.3/1.9
Arenado 23-24 dWAR 0.3/1.0
Isn't oWAR adjusted by position? Since Yoshida is not a 3rd baseman, not sure how helpful this is as a comparison.

OPS+ last year: Yoshida 112 Arenado 101

We simply can’t judge an Arenado deal without knowing the details, particularly the money involved. And the corresponding moves.
I can't really imagine any deal that would make sense since Arenado is under contract for the next three years. If the goal is to improve the defense with a player who put up bad offensive stats last year, just put Rafaela in CF and move Duran to LF. At least Raffy has a good chance of becoming a better hitter as opposed to the ongoing decline in Arenado's bat.
 
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grimshaw

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FWIW Breslow was on EEI and shot down Devers to 1b and said he was surprised to hear about the report about the difference of opinion about Bregman. Basically said there was nothing there and wouldn't comment on free agents. He didn't add much other than generic "looking to improve the team any way possible" type stuff and wouldn't say if anything was close to happening.
 
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WilhelmScream

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FWIW Breslow was on EEI and shot down Devers to 1b and said he was surprised to hear about the report about the difference of opinion about Bregman. Basically said there was nothing there and wouldn't comment on free agents. He didn't add much of interest to add otherwise other than generic "looking to improve the team any way possible" type stuff.
The moment he hung up the hosts started making fun of him and everything he said. I don't know why anybody would call in to that station and I don't think they should expect to get much out of anybody they have on.
 

grimshaw

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The moment he hung up the hosts started making fun of him and everything he said. I don't know why anybody would call in to that station and I don't think they should expect to get much out of anybody they have on.
Agreed. Was about to edit my post to reflect that. They did their best to tweak him the whole interview. It was Adam Jones being Adam Jones and Keefe wasn't any better.

I guess one other thing was that he didn't say either way whether any of their prospects would start in the majors or minors, though he didn't rule out "early 2025"
 
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