Much like Newman, the Sox are not “Ready to deliver”– The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Arenado seems like the kind of hitter that would benefit from Fenway Park.

Yes, it would suppress some of his home runs - they'd be turned into singles or doubles and I get that, and we all get that. It also looks like there are a TON of "field outs" that would also be turned into singles, doubles or home runs as well.

(I'm not sure how to properly include a spray chart, here is the link overlayed to Fenway).

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/illustrator?playerId=571448&playerType=batter&name=Nolan Arenado&tabSelection=0&shape=square&shapeName=Square (Instagram)&subTitle=&chartType=sprayChart&chartName=Spray Chart&pitcherThrows=&batterStands=&plateAppearanceResults=[]&pitchTypes=[]&seasonType=["R"]&pitchResults=[]&facingPlayer=[]&balls=[]&battedBallType=[]&years=[2024]&strikes=[]&outs=[]&selectedGames=[]&homeTeam=[]&awayTeam=[]&vsTeam=[]&exitVelocityGT=0&exitVelocityLT=125&pitchVelocityGT=0&pitchVelocityLT=105&launchAngleGT=-90&launchAngleLT=90&perspective=catcher&venue=3

 

[marcoscutaro]

Sorry, man. My notifications weren’t properly set for your posts. Didn’t get ringing bells on that video. But, having just now viewed it… not sure how the 2023 breakdown refutes what I’m saying. About 2024. His K% jumped from 24 to 32. The dood in the video was ‘critical’ of Casas being too passive in his “command of the strike zone,” which is what I’m saying above.

Because he was injured. I don’t know why this point is being deliberately ignored by you. The point of the video is that adjustment (being more aggressive) had already been made in 2023.

 

[BringBackMo]

It could be accurate, but so what? I, too, would accept a trade to Boston, but Boston shouldn't want me either.

Nonsense. We absolutely want you.

 

[marcoscutaro]

Arenado is awful. I don’t care about the park effect when his bat is this much in decline. You still have to make contact with pitches to send them out.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1866286258772709752


There’s also the fact that he was complaining about the St Louis young players taking over the clubhouse, plus the fact he’s quite clearly trying to force a trade to one of his preferred teams (Astros would have made a lot of sense for him). Pass all day.

 

[jon abbey]

If the contract is subsidized he only has one year left (?).

He has 3 years left.

 

[Auger34]

I think this is entirely accurate. It makes very little sense for them to spend just to spend on marginal improvements and go over because of it. I could see them doing it if Vlady or his ilk became available at the deadline and someone like Casas or Yoshida was injured.

This is all good in theory. But if you are only looking to spend on FAs that would qualify as massive improvements, can ownership bite the bullet to actually spend what is needed? It seems like the answer to that is no

 

[YTF]

It would be very good indeed if a single person bothered to watch the video I posted from MLB network that goes through the mechanical and approach adjustments Casas made in some detail, as well as accounting for the fact he was playing through pain when he returned from the IL and was visibly swinging a lot less. What are we doing here?

You're coming in a bit hot aren't you? A grand total of two posts since your MLB Network clip discussing Casas brings this sort of response? I watched it, it was a nice clip that basically reinforces what I remembered Cora saying about Casas being too content to take a ball or walk at times when there might be a greater benefit to him swinging at certain pitches in certain situations.

 

[oumbi]

Love Arenado 2+ years ago... but he does sort of "fit" the Sox better both short and long term than Bregman- as in, "he won't be here long term". If this is the case and this has any legs I'm hoping it's just a move for a platoon DH/3B with Devers and that they're not reshuffling the deck with Casas at 1B. I just don't like Devers to 1B at all and think Casas will be possibly the best hitter on the Sox next season.
I'd also assume that they're looking at Campbell as that 3B guy long term and will have him in AAA no matter how much he may destroy in ST

I love his history, though last year was a down year for him. Is age a concern?

Also, he would be on the books for three years, though the final year is not bad,

[TH]2025[/TH] [TH]2026[/TH] [TH]2027[/TH]

34	St. Louis Cardinals	$32,000,000	11.155	$5M paid by Colorado Rockies
35	St. Louis Cardinals	$27,000,000	$5M paid by Colorado Rockies
36	St. Louis Cardinals	$15,000,000	Added prior to 2021 season

 

[chawson]

After talks “stalled” with the Astros, the Red Sox, Tigers and Blue Jays have emerged as three suitors with a “very, very real” possibility of signing Bregman, reports an Astros beat reporter.

One thing I hadn’t seen reported anywhere else is that Devers's agent reiterated at the Winter Meetings that he would not move off third base.

The Red Sox already have a long-term third baseman in Rafael Devers, who will not move off the position, his agent Nelson Montes de Oca of Klutch Baseball reiterated at Winter Meetings. Bregman would likely have to play another position in Boston.

 

[joe dokes]

After talks “stalled” with the Astros, the Red Sox, Tigers and Blue Jays have emerged as three suitors with a “very, very real” possibility of signing Bregman, reports an Astros beat reporter.

One thing I hadn’t seen reported anywhere else is that Devers's agent reiterated at the Winter Meetings that he would not move off third base.

Yawn.
It's not up to him. (yes I know. "piss him off" "sulk" "deter every other free agent ever" blah, blah blah. But its not up to him.)

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Yawn.
It's not up to him. (yes I know. "piss him off" "sulk" "deter every other free agent ever" blah, blah blah. But its not up to him.)

I think the Bregman situation is actually pretty transparent.

Toronto will give him what he wants but no one wants to go there for obvious long and short term reasons.

The Tigers have a fun team and probably have a legit offer, but the park factor is really scary and it’s Detroit.

The Red Sox is the place he wants to be with Fenway Park, Alex Cora, and very clear core of players, but they have the worst of the three offers and are playing hard ball.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I think the Bregman situation is actually pretty transparent.

Toronto will give him what he wants but no one wants to go there for obvious long and short term reasons.

The Tigers have a fun team and probably have a legit offer, but the park factor is really scary and it’s Detroit.

The Red Sox is the place he wants to be with Fenway Park, Alex Cora, and very clear core of players, but they have the worst of the three offers and are playing hard ball.

I agree with all of the above. I hope we continue to play hard ball and get him on the shortest deal we can. I'm fine with a 3 year deal, but anything in the 5+ range makes me nervous.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

If the above takes are true (i think its a reasonable take) and Without really knowing what we are offering, i wonder if a 4/120 would get it done as a take it or leave it offer. I would assume breslow wants nothing to do with 5 years

 

[bosockboy]

I think the Bregman situation is actually pretty transparent.

Toronto will give him what he wants but no one wants to go there for obvious long and short term reasons.

The Tigers have a fun team and probably have a legit offer, but the park factor is really scary and it’s Detroit.

The Red Sox is the place he wants to be with Fenway Park, Alex Cora, and very clear core of players, but they have the worst of the three offers and are playing hard ball.

Jives with Cora’s comments that this is like the 2018 JDM wait out.

 

[flredsoxfan]

3 for 90 for Bregman. The AAV should make him happy. No long term deals except for our young guys - IF they are the real deal.

 

[OCD SS]

The money is secondary at this point: they need a spot for him on the roster.

 

[cantor44]

The money is secondary at this point: they need a spot for him on the roster.

Bregman might be a good enough athlete to learn to play some first, too. He could potentially play some third and some first. Casas could sit against some lefties. Dh some. Raffy could DH a good bit and play 3b some. Bregman could DH a little when he needs rest. Maybe Bregman: 60% 3B, 30% 1B, 10% DH/rest. Devers: 40% 3B, 60% DH/rest. Casas: 70% 1B, 30% DH/rest.
Yoshida bumped. If Campbell up, Grissom or Gonzalez bumped.

 

[YTF]

Bregman might be a good enough athlete to learn to play some first, too. He could potentially play some third and some first. Casas could sit against some lefties. Dh some. Raffy could DH a good bit and play 3b some. Bregman could DH a little when he needs rest. Maybe Bregman: 60% 3B, 30% 1B, 10% DH/rest. Devers: 40% 3B, 60% DH/rest. Casas: 70% 1B, 30% DH/rest.
Yoshida bumped. If Campbell up, Grissom or Gonzalez bumped.

I'm not opposed to this 1B/3B/DH proposal for Bregman, in fact I'm pretty sure I suggested something similar a while back in one of these threads. IF that happens I really think that they need to resolve the Yoshida issue before the start of the season as having him on the bench as a 2nd/3rd/4th DH option or 4th/5th OF option is an incredible waste of a roster spot.

 

[cantor44]

I'm not opposed to this 1B/3B/DH proposal for Bregman, in fact I'm pretty sure I suggested something similar a while back in one of these threads. IF that happens I really think that they need to resolve the Yoshida issue before the start of the season as having him on the bench as a 2nd/3rd/4th DH option or 4th/5th OF option is an incredible waste of a roster spot.

Apologies if I failed to see you saying the same upthread - I come and go and often miss stuff. Meanwhile, yeah, Yoshida would have to be traded and subsidized at that if they sign Bregman.

EDIT: kinda coming around a little to Bregman, if they could balance all that (shorter contract, Raffy ok to DH a lot, Yoshida traded, which I know are a lot of ifs ...), with a nice balanced line up eventually something like this:

CF: Duran
2B: Campbell
DH/3B: Devers
3B/1B: Bregman
1B/DH: Casas
LF: Anthony
SS: Story
RF: Abreu/Ref
C: Wong

Bench: Rafaela, (catcher), Hamilton, (Gonzalez/Grissom)

 

[YTF]

Apologies if I failed to see you saying the same upthread - I come and go and often miss stuff. Meanwhile, yeah, Yoshida would have to be traded and subsidized at that if they sign Bregman.

EDIT: kinda coming around a little to Bregman, if they could balance all that (shorter contract, Raffy ok to DH a lot, Yoshida traded, which I know are a lot of ifs ...), with a nice balanced line up eventually something like this:

CF: Duran
2B: Campbell
DH/3B: Devers
3B/1B: Bregman
1B/DH: Casas
LF: Anthony
SS: Story
RF: Abreu/Ref
C: Wong

Bench: Rafaela, (catcher), Hamilton, (Gonzalez/Grissom)

No apology needed, I just mentioned that as a measure of support. Another problem with my particular scenario is that ideally I would like to get Bregman on a 3 year deal. That might be a tough get, but who knows? IF Bregman is brought in, I think what you've presented as a lineup is what many of us might hope to eventually see once Campbell and Anthony show that they are ready to make the leap to the majors. In the end, I think one of Hamilton/Romy gets moved. I hope it's Hamilton as I see him having more trade value for the Sox and Romy as having more team value for the Sox.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Bregman might be a good enough athlete to learn to play some first, too. He could potentially play some third and some first. Casas could sit against some lefties. Dh some. Raffy could DH a good bit and play 3b some. Bregman could DH a little when he needs rest. Maybe Bregman: 60% 3B, 30% 1B, 10% DH/rest. Devers: 40% 3B, 60% DH/rest. Casas: 70% 1B, 30% DH/rest.
Yoshida bumped. If Campbell up, Grissom or Gonzalez bumped.

Who was the last 1B who was shorter than 6 feet tall? Jeremy Pena is listed as 6 feet tall and Altuve is 5'6" (Bregman is also listed as 6' but that seems wildly ambitious... maybe 5'9"?).

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Average height of a 1B is over 6’2”. Players 5’8” or under almost never play there anymore. Heck, rarely do guys under 6 feet tall. There were suggestions last year that Yoshida could play there which seemed kind of silly.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1200.html

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Average height of a 1B is over 6’2”. Players 5’8” or under almost never play there anymore. Heck, rarely do guys under 6 feet tall. There were suggestions last year that Yoshida could play there which seemed kind of silly.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/1200.html

Any team signing Bregman should be doing so to play third base and we've gone through all the reasons why he is a square peg with the current roster and even more so when considering the young players on the cusp of joining the team. I admire the creativity of trying to make him into a part-time first baseman, but I don't think he's anywhere near 6 feet tall.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

If we're looking for an undersized RH batter to fill in at first base and hit lefties...

Justin Turner is 5'11", had a +2 and +3 DRS score the last two years at 1B, and has a better OPS against LHP than Bregman (.758 for Turner and .712 for Bregman).

EDIT: for the record, I'd rather just keep Romy, who was +3 at 1B last year and had an OPS of .879 against LHP.

 

[YTF]

If we're looking for an undersized RH batter to fill in at first base and hit lefties...

Justin Turner is 5'11", had a +2 and +3 DRS score the last two years at 1B, and has a better OPS against LHP than Bregman (.758 for Turner and .712 for Bregman).

So...you're wrong, you're wrong and you're wrong, but this guy might fit the bill?

 

[Yo La Tengo]

So...you're wrong, you're wrong and you're wrong, but this guy might fit the bill?

No, I think most of us agree that Turner wouldn't be a good use of a roster spot which, in comparison, would make Bregman a major overpay (and I had previously edited my post to say I'd rather just keep Romy for this role).

 

[YTF]

If we're looking for an undersized RH batter to fill in at first base and hit lefties...

Justin Turner is 5'11", had a +2 and +3 DRS score the last two years at 1B, and has a better OPS against LHP than Bregman (.758 for Turner and .712 for Bregman).

EDIT: for the record, I'd rather just keep Romy, who was +3 at 1B last year and had an OPS of .879 against LHP.

I'll be the first to claim ignorance as to how these stats flesh out with such a small sample size. Or even with a larger sample size as far as that goes.

 

[cantor44]

The benefit of height at first base is obvious, though a dexterous, coordinated, athletic dude who is 5'9" could theoretically be better than a less athletic dude who is 6' 4". That is - it wouldn't surprise me if Bregman is a better fielder at first within a few weeks of experience than Casas currently is.
I do wanna say that I was very Bregman-averse to start. Though have come around a bit - if he's used creatively and agrees to short years. There is some potential benefit to rotating guys through DH, and spelling Casas against tougher lefties with big splits. Plus protecting against injury. But - there are so many 'ifs" to making him work on the team, that maybe, indeed, he's a square peg, I dunno.

 

[simplicio]

Once more for the kids in the back:

Bregman. Doesn't. Hit. Lefties.

 

[Fishy1]

Once more for the kids in the back:

Bregman. Doesn't. Hit. Lefties.

I would modify this slightly: he used to crush them and has been merely average against them the last three seasons. He's not been castrophically bad.

Larger point still stands. Right-handed hitters for the sake of right-handed hitters is silly stuff.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I guess I don’t understand, though, why we should care if Bergman is a major overpay. It’s “just money” (and a pick). By the time his contract is running out, Campbell and Anthony will surely be regulars, and still cheap. If there’s an argument that Bregman (or whomever’s) presence in 2027 is a negative because it will prevent rhe team from doing something, that’s an argument, but not one I’ve heard anyone make. While some of the players the Sox have may end up being better than Bregman at some point, it seems kind of irrelevant to me since those players will still be under contract. They wouldn’t be trading prospects for him.

Also, I would suspect he will hit lefties just fine next year, he has relatively mediocre numbers against them the last two years because of extreme low BABIP, the underlying numbers look fine.

 

[simplicio]

3 years is a long enough sample to make me think there's a reason he keeps running these low BABIPs against them though. That's around 600 PA with an OPS hovering around 700 and BABIP 233 or lower.

 

[Fishy1]

3 years is a long enough sample to make me think there's a reason he keeps running these low BABIPs against them though. That's around 600 PA with an OPS hovering around 700 and BABIP 233 or lower.

That's fair. It's 600 PA+.

 

[Rasputin]

I guess I don’t understand, though, why we should care if Bergman is a major overpay. It’s “just money” (and a pick). By the time his contract is running out, Campbell and Anthony will surely be regulars, and still cheap. If there’s an argument that Bregman (or whomever’s) presence in 2027 is a negative because it will prevent rhe team from doing something, that’s an argument, but not one I’ve heard anyone make. While some of the players the Sox have may end up being better than Bregman at some point, it seems kind of irrelevant to me since those players will still be under contract. They wouldn’t be trading prospects for him.

Also, I would suspect he will hit lefties just fine next year, he has relatively mediocre numbers against them the last two years because of extreme low BABIP, the underlying numbers look fine.

Everyone who is saying not to pay him too much or too long is doing so because we don't want his salary to get in the way down the road.

 

[chrisfont9]

I guess I don’t understand, though, why we should care if Bergman is a major overpay. It’s “just money” (and a pick). By the time his contract is running out, Campbell and Anthony will surely be regulars, and still cheap. If there’s an argument that Bregman (or whomever’s) presence in 2027 is a negative because it will prevent rhe team from doing something, that’s an argument, but not one I’ve heard anyone make. While some of the players the Sox have may end up being better than Bregman at some point, it seems kind of irrelevant to me since those players will still be under contract. They wouldn’t be trading prospects for him.

Also, I would suspect he will hit lefties just fine next year, he has relatively mediocre numbers against them the last two years because of extreme low BABIP, the underlying numbers look fine.

A number of us have brought up the domino effect, which bumps either Grissom or Yoshida, barring a trade. The pros and cons of that have been gone over, and the answer won’t be known until we see what those guys can do.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Carlos Santana is a Gold Glove first baseman and is listed at 5'11". I'd be surprised if he's not an inch or two shorter than that unless he's grown since the multiple times I was a few feet away from him when he was in the minors.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I would modify this slightly: he used to crush them and has been merely average against them the last three seasons. He's not been castrophically bad.

Larger point still stands. Right-handed hitters for the sake of right-handed hitters is silly stuff.

Is this true though? Isn’t the point of getting a right handed hitter to neutralize pitchers who have massive splits? Let’s say Bregman is league average against lefties, but most lefties are worse pitchers against righties.

I’ll have to dig into the numbers. But I think the concern of having too many lefties is legitimated

 

[skidmark21]

What percentage of lefties are even faced? And that’s just a subset of that group. It’s a “nice to have”, especially when it’s someone like O’Neill. In lieu of something like that, improve elsewhere where you can get a better ROI.

 

[simplicio]

What percentage of lefties are even faced?

Lefties pitched about a quarter of the innings last year (a bit higher in the NL).

 

[RorschachsMask]

Fucking woof

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1876086710452543702

 

[Sin Duda]

From ESPN, who now rank the Sox 8th in MLB (up from 17th at the end of the season): "You could make a case that the Red Sox are the most improved team of the winter, with the addition of Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler at the front of the rotation. However, the big X factor going into spring training? What they will get out of Trevor Story, who played just 26 games last season and hit .270 with a .429 slugging percentage after he came back in September." -- Olney

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Fucking woof

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1876086710452543702

I don’t think Breslow is stupid. And going from Casas/Devers on the corners to Devers/Arenado unquestionably makes the team worse, older, and more expensive.

With a starting staff that looks complete, I just don’t see what Casas would bring back that would change my mind.

And I truly just don’t understand the desire weakness. First base is a system weakness. There is nothing coming behind him.

 

[TheDogMan]

Arozarena is a worse player than Abreu, that wouldn’t even be an upgrade. At this point, I am convinced the outfield is set with Duran, Rafaela and Abreu left to right. I am happy with that, and whenever Anthony is ready they can either trade Abreu or move Rafaela to a different position. I just don’t think the bat upgrade Breslow is talking about is going to be major. More like a Grichuk or Canha type player. I think they get more aggressive on a bullpen upgrade, like Hoffman or Scott. Yoshidas value is too low at this point to get any value in return for him, and he isn’t a bad player that should require a good player attached to him to move him.

My concern is that the Sox want to appear willing to sign a top ring free agent. In spite of all of the noise they have and did not. Apologists say but they offered a kings ransom for a player, but realistically once the bidding got to whatever point it was going to got to the New York teams would outbid the Sox. That way Boston could say we tried to spend. Sox have been linked to every fa and outbid every single time. Now we are stuck with less desirable options or trading more top prospects away. Why is it our competitors always try harder than our management team/ ownership? At least the top closers out there improve the team. While I like Santander on the team more Bregman as he profiles as a powerful DH and allows us to DFA Yoshida and bite that vertical painful bullet.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I don’t think Breslow is stupid. And going from Casas/Devers on the corners to Devers/Arenado unquestionably makes the team worse, older, and more expensive.

With a starting staff that looks complete, I just don’t see what Casas would bring back that would change my mind.

And I truly just don’t understand the desire weakness. First base is a system weakness. There is nothing coming behind him.

Only thing that makes any kind of sense is to trade for a controllable SP since Buehler/Gio are probably gone next year and Sandoval is a complete question mark. For 2025 alone, it doesn’t make much sense.

Or, they really are trying to fit Bregman in and Devers will eventually capitulate and move to 1B.

 

[radsoxfan]

Once more for the kids in the back:

Bregman. Doesn't. Hit. Lefties.

The kids in the back heard you loud and clear.

But those kids also know....

Low BABIPs
Statistical variation
It's one seasons worth of PAs
Other metrics are holding up

If Bregman just stopped hitting everyone then sure I'd be worried. But this screams at least a semi-fluke for someone with a long track record of hitting them well and is only 30 years old.

I highly doubt he's forgotten how to hit lefties. Would love to know what the FO expects from him against LHP but I have a feeling it's far closer to his career norms than what he's done the last few seasons.

 

[BringBackMo]

I don’t think Breslow is stupid. And going from Casas/Devers on the corners to Devers/Arenado unquestionably makes the team worse, older, and more expensive.

With a starting staff that looks complete, I just don’t see what Casas would bring back that would change my mind.

And I truly just don’t understand the desire weakness. First base is a system weakness. There is nothing coming behind him.

The Sox Prospects guys have been making the point that many organizations aren’t really prioritizing the drafting or developing of first basemen these days. The idea is that you transition players into that position if/when they move down the defensive spectrum. Hickey, for instance, may not have the bat for 1B but after largely washing out at catcher, that appears to be his primary positon now. So not having established first base prospects in the system may be more of a feature than a bug.

There are some similarities there with corner outfielders, 2B, and even 3B. CF, SS, and C are really the three big positions where organizations seem to prioritize development depth.

 

[bosockboy]

My theory is the Sox are leaking the Arenado chatter to apply pressure on Bregman.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Arenado doesn't require a Casas trade. It requires a Yoshida trade. Presumably, Yoshida + prospect for Arenado.

Arenado at third, Casas at first and Devers primarily as a DH would be a big defensive boost.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Arenado doesn't require a Casas trade. It requires a Yoshida trade. Presumably, Yoshida + prospect for Arenado.

Arenado at third, Casas at first and Devers primarily as a DH would be a big defensive boost.

And a significant downgrade in offense going from Yoshida to Arenado.

 

[bosockboy]

Arenado doesn't require a Casas trade. It requires a Yoshida trade. Presumably, Yoshida + prospect for Arenado.

Arenado at third, Casas at first and Devers primarily as a DH would be a big defensive boost.

I’m willing to expand it and sweeten it to get Helsley.