Dude, it was a joke. Just trading snark for snark.I mean, this is such a grim way to follow sports.
Dude, it was a joke. Just trading snark for snark.I mean, this is such a grim way to follow sports.
Thank you for bringing on early spring to me on this cold winter morning. I feel the same way you do and can't wait to see how the kids unfold. My first "kids" were Rico, Reggie, Tony, George, and Lonnie. Hope does spring eternal.Really excited by this off-season. Sox have acquired the second best player of the off-season, one of the better lefty relievers in the game, and another good starter.
They now have one of the top rotations in the American League; a good and deep bullpen bolstered by healthy Whitlock and Hendriks; nice pitching depth in Worcester; and a good offense that stands to improve thanks to a healthy Casas and Story.
And it’s easy to believe that Breslow isn’t done yet, with his stated desire to add a bat and the reports of the Sox working to add another bullpen arm. And then there’s the excitement of two of the best prospects in all of baseball seemingly competing for spots on the team. I still have vivid memories of Mo, Buchholz, Pedroia, Mookie, and JBJ as rookies. It always adds a little extra excitement when heralded prospects first make the majors. Can’t wait to watch Anthony and Campbell.
Shaping up to be a fun season.
I think it helps only from a positioning stand point which isn't nothing, but he still needs to take good paths to the ball, field it cleanly and make good throws.Regarding Yoshida's defense.....I cant find it right now, but I am pretty sure I remember Cora saying that the decision not to play him in the OF was made before his injury. If that decision was made in, let say, Spring '24, that would be before Duran and Abreu became gold-glovers. Assuming they really are that good.....and assuming Rafaela is still that good.....I suppose it's possible that 2 GG in CF and RF *might* allow a healthy Yoshida to play some LF this year. (Much in the same way that a healthy Story probably helps the 2B and 3Bmen be a bit better.)
Adding a post from ~month ago that dovetails with your points about the Sox against LHP and the potential impact of losing O'Neill.This has become a big talking point and while I think it’s something, I kind of question its significance.
Team wide, Sox LHBs put up a .278 weighted on-base average vs. LHP in 2024. That mark was 20th in MLB.
But it looks like they were unlucky, some. Their expected wOBA, which measures quality of contact, was .291, good for 9th in MLB. Pretty decent.
Casas (.340 xwOBA) and Duran (.313) were above average (.294) in that department. Devers was also slightly above average at .299, and Yoshida a tick below at .285.
The real laggards were Abreu (.261), Hamilton (.245), Dominic Smith (.243) and Reese McGuire (.190). At least two of those guys are assuredly gone.
In 2023, there was no such gap in the team’s wOBA vs. xwOBA vs. LHP, and the Sox were 9th overall in wOBA (10th in xwOBA). Casas (.356), Devers (.352) and Yoshida (.328) posted weighted on-base averages were all substantially better than average LHB vs. LHP situations leaguewide.
IIRC, the microscope came out last August about Sox hitters vs. same-handed pitching, while we puzzled about Tyler O’Neill’s pronounced splits. That was weird, and he's also not our concern anymore.
Overall, it’s something to keep an eye on, but I don’t think it’s as bad as every LHB needing serious help against same-handed hurlers. Casas, Devers and Yoshida were each hurt last year, which to me seems like the best explanation for why their numbers dragged from 2023’s good-to-great marks. Duran is not really a problem against them at all relative to his peers — his .313 xwOBA last year was 30th among 95 lefty hitters with >50 PAs against LHP. Abreu and Hamilton were not good, but their usage was consistent with Cora’s pattern of acclimating rookies to everyday roles with platoon partners. Maybe they’ll improve like Duran and Casas have?
Meanwhile, we’ve got two excellent lefty masher bench guys in Ref and Romy, a healthy Grissom and Story should help, and maybe Narvaez (over McGuire) as a pinch-hit option who plays a little first base could help too.
The thing is, the Sox arguably didn't lose their best RHH against left handed pitching. Refsnyder, who is not retiring, has outperformed O'Neill v LHP over the last three seasons (Refsnyder with OPS against LHP of .941, .828, 1.005 over 310 ABs compared with O'Neill at 1.179, .793, .788 over 272 ABs).
And you forgot Romy who had an .879 OPS against LHP last year. Plus the improvement from a full year of Casas, (.758 OPS last year against LHP, .817 in 2023) a functional 2B, whatever Story can produce, and the contributions of Anthony + Campbell.
EDIT- and Wong's defense is only relevant if it results in him not hit against LHP. There does not appear any plan to bench/trade Wong this offseason, so, his .877 OPS against LHP counts for forecasting purposes too.
More specifically, O'Neill only had 156 plate appearances (over 75 games) against LHP last year:
That's 218 plate appearances against LHP with horrible production. O'Neill only had 156 plate appearances against LHP all year. Just having a competent second basemen plus Casas would make up for most/all of the loss of O'Neill.
- Emanuel Valdez played in 65 games at second (with only one game started at another position) and, overall had 36 plate appearances against lefties with an OPS of .296.
- David Hamilton played in 39 games at second and, overall had 50 plate appearances against lefties with an OPS of .532
- Dom Smith played had 50 plate appearances against lefties with an OPS of .663
- Bobby Dalbec had 39 plate appearances against lefties with an OPS of .291
- Garrett Cooper had 43 plate appearances against lefties with an OPS of .645
If Cora said that (and I believe he probably did say something to that effect), he said it when his outfield group was O'Neill, Duran, Rafaela, and Abreu. And at the start of the year, Duran was easily the weak link in that group so it made sense that Yoshida wasn't needed in the outfield all that much. He did play an inning in LF in April which suggests that it wasn't a staunch no-outfield-at-all plan. Then he hurt his shoulder (and his hand) and he was never put out there again, and there were probably opportunities to do so had he been healthy. Among those that got 1-2 innings of outfield work last year were Connor Wong, Enmanuel Valdez, and Jamie Westbrook...were they really better choices than a guy who's spent his whole career playing the outfield?Regarding Yoshida's defense.....I cant find it right now, but I am pretty sure I remember Cora saying that the decision not to play him in the OF was made before his injury. If that decision was made in, let say, Spring '24, that would be before Duran and Abreu became gold-glovers. Assuming they really are that good.....and assuming Rafaela is still that good.....I suppose it's possible that 2 GG in CF and RF *might* allow a healthy Yoshida to play some LF this year. (Much in the same way that a healthy Story probably helps the 2B and 3Bmen be a bit better.)
I apologize to @Cassvt2023 and anyone else for another post about how the Sox need players that can hit BOTH sides of the mound, but I do think it's important to draw a distinction between the folks that want a right handed hitter that mashes lefties (not me) and the folks that think the team needs more "balance" as in ability for one player to hit both side of the mound, regardless of if they're hitting right handed or left handed (this is my stance).Great post. What people are missing is that the ability to hit RH pitching is infinitely more valuable than hitting LH. The top two team OPS vs RH last year were the Yankees and Dodgers that is no coincidence (Red Sox were 6th). It is also why someone like Joc Pederson and Yoshida, are so much more valuable than a Refsnyder or Grichuck. If Abreu, Duran and Casas "eventually learn to hit lefties" . Not sure what that means but if that means improving their OPS against them by 100-200 OPS then they are all looking at Juan Soto type contracts.
If you can get Alcantara for a deal centered around Casas you kinda just have to do it and figure out the rest of the moving pieces later. Too much talent, upside, contract value to not make an effort to get.Alcantara for Casas, Devers to 1B, Bregman for 6 years, Crawford for relievers?
As little as I want to consider trading Casas, I simply don't see a scenario in which we add the RHH we need without displacing him, Devers, and Yoshida. No one, rightfully, is seriously suggesting trading Devers, but I keep seeing Casas' name bandied around. Trading him for a top-tier SP would at least be understandable. If Seattle is not going to budge on Kirby/Gilbert or even Woo, Alcantara is a pretty nice option. Thought he was controlled for more than he is, but 2 years and a club option isn't nothing.Alcantara for Casas, Devers to 1B, Bregman for 6 years, Crawford for relievers?
If they need to add payroll, moving Alcantara seems counterproductive to that aim. I could see where they might take Yoshida to comply with league salary rules, but it wouldn't make a lot of sense to do so while also shedding Alcantara's money. It'd be a net gain of only ~$7M.If you can get Alcantara for a deal centered around Casas you kinda just have to do it and figure out the rest of the moving pieces later. Too much talent, upside, contract value to not make an effort to get.
Also, and this is kinda of interesting, I wonder if they would take Yoshida? They have to spend 20+ million or they aren’t going to hit their numbers to avoid a grievance.
I didn't see that post, but the idea of DFAing Yoshida in the next year is not going to happen and probably isn't worth commenting on.Odd since the post I was responding to said he was a DFA candidate, and thats not the first time someone has said that.
They also have neither an incumbent DH nor an incumbent 1B. This looks like a potential matchup. (They did tell Alcántara he wasn’t being moved, though.)If you can get Alcantara for a deal centered around Casas you kinda just have to do it and figure out the rest of the moving pieces later. Too much talent, upside, contract value to not make an effort to get.
Also, and this is kinda of interesting, I wonder if they would take Yoshida? They have to spend 20+ million or they aren’t going to hit their numbers to avoid a grievance.
Yea, I mean this is probably the best team in the AL and the rotation is good enough to win it all.They also have neither an incumbent DH nor an incumbent 1B. This looks like a potential matchup. (They did tell Alcántara he wasn’t being moved, though.)
So, let’s say we can do something like Alcántara and reliever Calvin Faucher for Casas, Crawford, Yoshida, and Hamilton. That checks out in BTV and makes some sense for both sides.
Then I guess we sign Bregman for 5 years and move Devers to DH. Do you then ink Alonso to a short high AAV deal?
This would give us:
CF Duran L
3B Bregman R
DH Devers L
1B Alonso R
RF Abreu L
SS Story R
LF Anthony L
C Wong/Narvaez R
2B Grissom R
With Romy, Rafaela and Refsnyder on the bench. Campbell first call up in case of injury to basically anyone.
With an *insane* six man rotation: Alcántara Crochet Houck Bello Buehler Giolito.
And a very deep bullpen of Faucher Hendriks Slaten Chapman Whitlock Guerrero Wilson Bernardino
It’s likely an expensive team depending on what the FAs cost, but it does look like it projects better than the Yankees.
I know it's silly season, but let me add my 2 cents. If you do this particular deal you've Alcantrara signed through at $11.2M for '25 and '26 with a team option for '27 at $21M . Extend Crochet and you've got a very nice rotation for the next 3 years at least. This deal would move two lefties in Casas and Yoshida and is likely to not impede the progression of Anthony and Grissom. If Breslow is able to swing it, Bregman and Alonso for 4 years max along with the additions of Campbell and Anthony has the ability to transform this team into a serious contender for at least 3-4 year period. You're also adding another good cost controlled arm in Faucher. I haven't forgotten about how or where Marcelo Mayer fits into all of this, but I'm sure it could be sorted. The biggest question here outside of if Miami would do this deal or one similar is that with the $50+ that the team is likely to have to commit to Alcantara, Bregman and Alonso (not to mention whatever agreement the team might agree to with Crochet) will ownership see this as an investment that they are willing to make? The projected roster below is fairly flexible and doesn't look too shabby. Admittedly there are 14 position players listed, but a couple of these guys can either start the season in WOOstah or be optioned during the season.They also have neither an incumbent DH nor an incumbent 1B. This looks like a potential matchup. (They did tell Alcántara he wasn’t being moved, though.)
So, let’s say we can do something like Alcántara and reliever Calvin Faucher for Casas, Crawford, Yoshida, and Hamilton. That checks out in BTV and makes some sense for both sides.
Then I guess we sign Bregman for 5 years and move Devers to DH. Do you then ink Alonso to a short high AAV deal?
This would give us:
CF Duran L
3B Bregman R
DH Devers L
1B Alonso R
RF Abreu L
SS Story R
LF Anthony L
C Wong/Narvaez R
2B Grissom R
With Romy, Rafaela and Refsnyder on the bench. Campbell first call up in case of injury to basically anyone.
With an *insane* six man rotation: Alcántara Crochet Houck Bello Buehler Giolito.
And a very deep bullpen of Faucher Hendriks Slaten Chapman Whitlock Guerrero Wilson Bernardino
It’s likely an expensive team depending on what the FAs cost, but it does look like it projects better than the Yankees.
So... then they'll have two $30+M guys in Devers and Bregman. Assuming another $27.5M for Alonso. Story at $25M. Nevermind all the other guys on the roster... you really think that the way Henry has operated, that there'll be any chance in hell he'll find enough money in his couch cushions to pay for a 5 year deal for Crochet? And money for extensions for Duran? Long term contracts for Anthony? Campbell?Yea, I mean this is probably the best team in the AL and the rotation is good enough to win it all.
I think this is probably true. And I would also prefer to try to keep Casas and include others in the deal instead. If bringing on Alcantara, we can certainly include at least Crawford, and I think Abreu is far more expendable (though less valuable) than Casas. SO we'd probably have to include some prospects, and I could see Miami wanting one of the big 3 as part of the package. Not sure if any of our other prospects or some combination of them (or Grissom or Hamilton) it would take to get this done.If Miami (who lost 100 games in 2024) is trading Alcantara, wouldn’t they want someone who hasn’t already burned through 2 of his pre-arb years? Trading for Casas is a move that for a team that is in win-now mode but also has some budget constraints.
No kidding you want hitters that can hit both well. They are very expensive. Those 5 Dodgers are more in payroll than 15 other teams totals. They make more than Oak and Pit total payrolls combined. Not every team can do that, thats why looking for market inefficiencies with other metrics is so important.I apologize to @Cassvt2023 and anyone else for another post about how the Sox need players that can hit BOTH sides of the mound, but I do think it's important to draw a distinction between the folks that want a right handed hitter that mashes lefties (not me) and the folks that think the team needs more "balance" as in ability for one player to hit both side of the mound, regardless of if they're hitting right handed or left handed (this is my stance).
So I'll say : the Sox need players that can hit both sides of the plate at a significantly above average level, they don't have them. If you're sick of my posts, please feel free to stop reading here, I won't know or be offended.
To further use the Dodgers as an example - and also I understand that it's unfair to say "just go be the Dodgers" so that isn't my point. But look at their line up regulars and their career splits.
Position, career wRC+ splits (and I'm not bothering to include what side of the plate the hitter hits from, because I agree that doesn't matter)
C - Will Smith 120/126
1b - Freddie Freeman 113/151
"Util" - Betts 144/138
3b - Muncy 118/127
OF - Hernandez 113/140
DH - Ohtani 127/165
*Fun note on the Dodgers, only one of these players is home grown, forgot Muncy was in Oakland.*
So they have 6 "core" hitters in their line up that can be played every day, allowing Roberts to mix and match and integrate rookies and role players as necessary to the remaining 3 spots (Pages, Hernandez, Rojas, Lux, Edman, whatever). The WORST of their core hitters against same handed pitching were Freeman (113 vs LHP) and Teoscar (113vsRHP)
Now lets look at the 2007 Red Sox (because we all believe, or at least want to believe, that Anthony and Campbell are at minimum Dustin Pedroia - which would be an incredible win), and their core 6 hitters.
C - Varitek 93/121
1b - Youkilis 140/122
3b- Lowell 119/107
LF - Manny 160/153
RF - Drew 101/135
DH - Ortiz 111/161
Contrast that with the 6 "regulars" for Boston and in the interest of small sample sizes, I'll just go ahead assume these things happen because, why not:
1) Yoshida's 2023 is more like his talent level and give him that
2) Durran is going to be the 2024 stud for the rest of his career
3) Abreu can get to be 2024 Duran against LHPs because why not.
4) Story at age 32 is going to magically revert to the guy he was in Colorado
1b - Casas 109/122
3b - Devers 98/137
SS - Story 139/95
DH - Yoshida 103/112
CF - Duran 86/148
RF - Abreu 85 /126 (his career line is 48/126)
Even if we assume what might not be the absolute best case scenario for Abreu, Yoshida, Duran and Story, but is a pretty bullish one in that Abreu becomes 2024 Duran vs LHP, Yoshida is the guy he was in 2023 for the rest of his career AND Story goes back to being the guy he was, but hasn't been in about 4 years, the Red Sox STILL have no regulars against same handed pitching as good as the Dodgers worst regulars against same handed pitching.
In summation to what has actually happened over their careers to date, relative to the Dodgers:
The Red Sox BEST regular against same handed pitching (Casas) hasn't been as good as the two worst regulars against same handed pitching for LAD (Freeman and Hernandez).
Relative to the 2007 Red Sox
You have "Drew" (Devers)
You have "Lowell" (Casas)
Maybe you even get "Lowell" twice (Yoshida)
You maybe have "Tek" (Story)
You don't have Manny, Ortiz, or even Youk.
So lets just go ahead and make Anthony a 122/140 guy like Youk and make Campbell into Pedroia (again, I think anyone would take this in one second) and you're STILL missing the Ortiz and Ramirez heart of the order.
I apologize again for the long post and for making yet another post about the major issue I see with the Red Sox line up (one and maybe two "great" hitters in Devers and Casas, but not exactly Manny and Ortiz or Ohtani and Freeman) then a lot of "good" but not "great" hitters IF things go really well, that all share a similar flaw (same handed pitchers).
My overall point remains - looking at the largest data sample sizes (career numbers) the Red Sox have a serious problem in that their entire roster (minus Casas) is very susceptible to same handed pitching. I'm not saying the team stinks or the line up stinks. I'm saying it's "good" but it's not "great" and there are plenty of places where they could stand to improve. At least if the goal remains to win the World Series (which it does for me, YMMV, and that's fine).
They need multiple players that can hit both sides of the plate at a significantly above average level, they don't have them (or at least not ones that have shown this over the largest MLB sample size we have for these players).
I agree. Using Casas to trade for Alcantara would require a third team. I know it's tired to bring up this team at this point in the offseason, but the Mariners still have a hole at 1B and have plenty of prospects to interest a (perpetually) rebuilding team like the Marlins.If Miami (who lost 100 games in 2024) is trading Alcantara, wouldn’t they want someone who hasn’t already burned through 2 of his pre-arb years? Trading for Casas is a move that for a team that is in win-now mode but also has some budget constraints.
Are they?No kidding you want hitters that can hit both well. They are very expensive. Those 5 Dodgers are more in payroll than 15 other teams totals. They make more than Oak and Pit total payrolls combined. Not every team can do that, thats why looking for market inefficiencies with other metrics is so important.
LAD has to pay so much because their guys aren't all 1B and DH like your list (sans Bregman). We already have a 1B without a major splits issue.Are they?
CWalker has a career 114/112 split and he signed for $22m AAV ($66m total)
Hernandez has a career 140/113 split (same contract as CWalker)
NLowe (traded this winter) is 117/133
Alonso is 130/131 (unsigned)
Bregman last year (and I admit he's not going to back to his insanely good Houston days) was 100/125
Santander is 111/116
I never expected they'd get Soto of course, but two of those guys went for less than $70m and one was acquired for whoever the heck Robert Garcia is.
There were (and are still) many feasible options for the Red Sox to get someone that handles both sides of the plate well. I don't expect them to land ALL of these kinds of players in one off-season (LAD for instance got Mookie then Freeman then Ohtani and Hernandez). I don't think asking for them to land one and make some other moves to accommodate it is being horribly entitled or unreasonable, but maybe it is.
Anyhow, I'll let you have the last word if you'd like it and stop now because people know where I stand and I don't want to clutter the board with the same complaint any more than I have.
This handedness thing is really not this important, and I think you're prioritizing it at the expense of many, many factors.Are they?
CWalker has a career 114/112 split and he signed for $22m AAV ($66m total)
Hernandez has a career 140/113 split (same contract as CWalker)
NLowe (traded this winter) is 117/133
Alonso is 130/131 (unsigned)
Bregman last year (and I admit he's not going to back to his insanely good Houston days) was 100/125
Santander is 111/116
I never expected they'd get Soto of course, but two of those guys went for less than $70m and one was acquired for whoever the heck Robert Garcia is.
There were (and are still) many feasible options for the Red Sox to get someone that handles both sides of the plate well. I don't expect them to land ALL of these kinds of players in one off-season (LAD for instance got Mookie then Freeman then Ohtani and Hernandez). I don't think asking for them to land one and make some other moves to accommodate it is being horribly entitled or unreasonable, but maybe it is.
Anyhow, I'll let you have the last word if you'd like it and stop now because people know where I stand and I don't want to clutter the board with the same complaint any more than I have.
Again, just because it's silly season...The biggest public aversion to spending money has been concerning FA pitchers over 30 on long term deals. If Breslow is able to swing this or something similar the team will have secured what looks to be an outstanding, young staff that will be under team control for at least 3-4 years. Whatever extension Crochet might sign should still be seen as pretty affordable in the first two years while affording Crochet a huge bump in salary. Let's call year one between $7.5-$10M and year two at $10-$15M. Yoshida's and Crawford's combined salaries of $21.5M should cover just about all of Alcantara and Crochet's combined salaries for this season and well over half of it next season. Bregman and Alonso (let's call that $60M, though I think in might be slightly less) combined probably come in at less than $15M more than the reported final offer for Soto. I think a strong argument can be made that IF the team is truly willing to spend up, this is a situation where they might consider doing so.So... then they'll have two $30+M guys in Devers and Bregman. Assuming another $27.5M for Alonso. Story at $25M. Nevermind all the other guys on the roster... you really think that the way Henry has operated, that there'll be any chance in hell he'll find enough money in his couch cushions to pay for a 5 year deal for Crochet? And money for extensions for Duran? Long term contracts for Anthony? Campbell?
This just isn't going to happen and some of the fantasy stuff is just getting boring
And according to our own poll on this subject less than 5% of SOSH wants him on a 6+ year deal. So I think we’re pretty much all in agreement on that. That said, 74% of the poll want him on a 3 year/$75 million deal.But still not excited about bringing in Bregman on a six-year deal. And I doubt Breslow is either.
Is your concern generally about using the bench to adjust the lineup for match-up purposes? Or do you think that the current platoon options just aren't good enough? I'm in full agreement that it would be optimal to have really good hitters who thrive against both LHP and RHP. But those players are relatively rare and really expensive. So, yes, look to draft, trade for, and sign those dominant types of players when possible, but in the meantime, manipulate match ups as best as possible.I apologize to @Cassvt2023 and anyone else for another post about how the Sox need players that can hit BOTH sides of the mound, but I do think it's important to draw a distinction between the folks that want a right handed hitter that mashes lefties (not me) and the folks that think the team needs more "balance" as in ability for one player to hit both side of the mound, regardless of if they're hitting right handed or left handed (this is my stance).
So I'll say : the Sox need players that can hit both sides of the plate at a significantly above average level, they don't have them. If you're sick of my posts, please feel free to stop reading here, I won't know or be offended.
To further use the Dodgers as an example - and also I understand that it's unfair to say "just go be the Dodgers" so that isn't my point. But look at their line up regulars and their career splits.
Position, career wRC+ splits (and I'm not bothering to include what side of the plate the hitter hits from, because I agree that doesn't matter)
C - Will Smith 120/126
1b - Freddie Freeman 113/151
"Util" - Betts 144/138
3b - Muncy 118/127
OF - Hernandez 113/140
DH - Ohtani 127/165
*Fun note on the Dodgers, only one of these players is home grown, forgot Muncy was in Oakland.*
So they have 6 "core" hitters in their line up that can be played every day, allowing Roberts to mix and match and integrate rookies and role players as necessary to the remaining 3 spots (Pages, Hernandez, Rojas, Lux, Edman, whatever). The WORST of their core hitters against same handed pitching were Freeman (113 vs LHP) and Teoscar (113vsRHP)
Now lets look at the 2007 Red Sox (because we all believe, or at least want to believe, that Anthony and Campbell are at minimum Dustin Pedroia - which would be an incredible win), and their core 6 hitters.
C - Varitek 93/121
1b - Youkilis 140/122
3b- Lowell 119/107
LF - Manny 160/153
RF - Drew 101/135
DH - Ortiz 111/161
Contrast that with the 6 "regulars" for Boston and in the interest of small sample sizes, I'll just go ahead assume these things happen because, why not:
1) Yoshida's 2023 is more like his talent level and give him that
2) Durran is going to be the 2024 stud for the rest of his career
3) Abreu can get to be 2024 Duran against LHPs because why not.
4) Story at age 32 is going to magically revert to the guy he was in Colorado
1b - Casas 109/122
3b - Devers 98/137
SS - Story 139/95
DH - Yoshida 103/112
CF - Duran 86/148
RF - Abreu 85 /126 (his career line is 48/126)
Even if we assume what might not be the absolute best case scenario for Abreu, Yoshida, Duran and Story, but is a pretty bullish one in that Abreu becomes 2024 Duran vs LHP, Yoshida is the guy he was in 2023 for the rest of his career AND Story goes back to being the guy he was, but hasn't been in about 4 years, the Red Sox STILL have no regulars against same handed pitching as good as the Dodgers worst regulars against same handed pitching.
In summation to what has actually happened over their careers to date, relative to the Dodgers:
The Red Sox BEST regular against same handed pitching (Casas) hasn't been as good as the two worst regulars against same handed pitching for LAD (Freeman and Hernandez).
Relative to the 2007 Red Sox
You have "Drew" (Devers)
You have "Lowell" (Casas)
Maybe you even get "Lowell" twice (Yoshida)
You maybe have "Tek" (Story)
You don't have Manny, Ortiz, or even Youk.
So lets just go ahead and make Anthony a 122/140 guy like Youk and make Campbell into Pedroia (again, I think anyone would take this in one second) and you're STILL missing the Ortiz and Ramirez heart of the order.
I apologize again for the long post and for making yet another post about the major issue I see with the Red Sox line up (one and maybe two "great" hitters in Devers and Casas, but not exactly Manny and Ortiz or Ohtani and Freeman) then a lot of "good" but not "great" hitters IF things go really well, that all share a similar flaw (same handed pitchers).
My overall point remains - looking at the largest data sample sizes (career numbers) the Red Sox have a serious problem in that their entire roster (minus Casas) is very susceptible to same handed pitching. I'm not saying the team stinks or the line up stinks. I'm saying it's "good" but it's not "great" and there are plenty of places where they could stand to improve. At least if the goal remains to win the World Series (which it does for me, YMMV, and that's fine).
They need multiple players that can hit both sides of the plate at a significantly above average level, they don't have them (or at least not ones that have shown this over the largest MLB sample size we have for these players).
Just to answer direct questions or points because I respect the opinions of the posters and don't want to ignore them. Apologies to @Cassvt2023 and others for continuing this line of discussion:Is your concern generally about using the bench to adjust the lineup for match-up purposes? Or do you think that the current platoon options just aren't good enough? I'm in full agreement that it would be optimal to have really good hitters who thrive against both LHP and RHP. But those players are relatively rare and really expensive. So, yes, look to draft, trade for, and sign those dominant types of players when possible, but in the meantime, manipulate match ups as best as possible.
Here is an effort at that approach (LHP/RHP):
C- Wong/Catcher 145/???
1b - Casas 114/129 (career)
2b- Grissom/Campbell ???
3b - Devers 98/137 (higher against LHP in 2021-2023)
SS - Story ??? who knows at this point
DH - Romy/Yoshida 142 (last year)/112 (134 v RHP last year)
LF- Rafaela/Anthony/Campbell ???
CF - Duran 86/148 (98 against LHP in 2023)
RF - Refsnyder/Abreu ~157 (last 3 years) /126
This looks... pretty good. Not as good as last year's Dodgers team and not as good as the 2007 Red Sox. But good enough to make the playoffs and then make things interesting.
I continue to hope they find a catcher who hits RHP with good defensive skills. And the question looms of what the bench should look like, which will depend on what the starting lineup looks like.
Just to be clear, do you not think it's important for someone to be able to hit RHP and LHP? Because, I'm NOT saying there is a problem because they're all LHH, Freeman is a LHH and has a 113 wRC+ for his career against LHPs. That isn't a problem, obviously. More realistically, JD Drew was a 101 wRC+ hitter against LHP, so not really a problem - and yes, I think even FSRedbird can go and spend to get an equivalent of JD Drew. I'm saying there IS a problem because they're all LHH that can't really hit LHP. If they were all RHH that couldn't hit LHP at all, that'd be an issue too.This handedness thing is really not this important, and I think you're prioritizing it at the expense of many, many factors.
These are good players you’ve listed, but they’re older and either par or worse versions of players we already have at their positions. Do you want us to jettison Triston Casas, who has better numbers by the metrics you're touting, for a guy 10 years older in Christian Walker? Is a "career 113 wRC+ equally split" some kind of special trait? Nate Lowe barely cracked a .400 SLG last year — is that more special because he was able to do it equally against RHP vs. LHP?
Steamer, FWIW, projects Yoshida to hit slightly better in 2025 than Teoscar Hernández (I know you feel otherwise), 117 wRC+ to 116 wRC+. Is replacing one with the other worth the maybe $100-120 million delta between them, factoring Teoscar’s salary and what you want the Sox to eat to dump Yoshida?
Umm other than Lowe who is ARB4 they are all making over $20M this year . Think that qualifies as expensive. Thats a big chunk of most teams payrolls. There are people making the argument of eating Yoshidas $18.5 and then paying one of those remaning FA . I made the mistake of listening to that Tessie podcast. Don't do it, unless you love popsicle headaches.LAD has to pay so much because their guys aren't all 1B and DH like your list (sans Bregman). We already have a 1B without a major splits issue.
Not quite sure of the point here, but the short version of those NY numbers is Soto crushes everyone (and now he is in the NL) and Stanton, who previously had been historically great against LHP (at one point he had the best career SLG of any player in history against LHP, ahead of Frank Thomas in 2nd), somehow developed reverse splits and hit righties much better in 2024.I don’t know that this adds to the discussion or will interest anyone but me. But I was bored and trying to avoid going out to shovel, so I looked it up.
Yes, the teams performed similarly against LHP in basically the same number of plate appearances:
Plate Appearances vs. LHP, followed by OBP/SLG/OPS:
BOS 1816 .318 .409 .729
NYY 1808 .334 .387 .721
But they did so in different ways.
Each team’s right-handed hitters against LHP,:
BOS 973 .345 .470 .815
NYY 1050 .333 .405 .738
Each team’s left-handed hitters against LHP:
BOS 843 .288 .341 .629
NYY 758 .335 .363 .698
I think the point is, he just didn't feel like going out and shoveling snow.Not quite sure of the point here, but the short version of those NY numbers is Soto crushes everyone (and now he is in the NL) and Stanton, who previously had been historically great against LHP (at one point he had the best career SLG of any player in history against LHP, ahead of Frank Thomas in 2nd), somehow developed reverse splits and hit righties much better in 2024.
Speier's article in today's Glob lays out why you may not be right. Or why it's not as simple as OPS v. LHP.Red Sox OPS vs LH in 2024 was .728 which was 10th in MLB The Yankees were 11th at .721. I will say it again it is not as important as hitting RH. Also its just not that big an issue for the Red Sox no matter how long posts saying it is are.
The thing that resonated with me when I read it was that the Sox are a traditionally really good to great offense at Fenway, but there 38-43 record at home last year could be partly due to not enough guys hitting balls in the air to LF. I feel like a healthy Story and Casas, along with Campbell's emerging fly ball rate and Rafaela's 2nd full year will help this tremendously.Speier's article in today's Glob lays out why you may not be right. Or why it's not as simple as OPS v. LHP.
I'm still not certain they need a RHB just for the sake of it, but the article moved my needle a bit, as it were.
Winner!I think the point is, he just didn't feel like going out and shoveling snow.
I also think the Red Sox are way too heavy on left handed hitters. Your point is well taken tho, and I hope you are right.Red Sox OPS vs LH in 2024 was .728 which was 10th in MLB The Yankees were 11th at .721. I will say it again it is not as important as hitting RH. Also its just not that big an issue for the Red Sox no matter how long posts saying it is are.
What exactly is the just right number of left handed hitters, if they're currently too heavy? As of now, the 40-man roster has 15 position players on it: 6 LHH (Duran, Devers, Casas, Abreu, Yoshida, Hamilton), 8 RHH (Story, Grissom, Wong, Rafaela, Gonzalez, Refsnyder, Narvaez, Garcia), and one switch hitter (Sogard).I also think the Red Sox are way too heavy on left handed hitters. Your point is well taken tho, and I hope you are right.
This is perfect....The goal of an offense is not to come as close as possible to righty/lefty parity, nor to have no righty-lefty splits. The goal is to score runs. The Sox last year were third in the American League in runs scored, and that’s despite running out some truly woeful hitters who’d been pressed into extended duty because of injuries.
The offense seems poised to be even better this year, thanks to a (hopefully) healthy Story, Casas, and Grissom, and whatever the Sox are able to get from Anthony and Campbell. Does that mean the team wouldn’t like to add an additional righty bat? Clearly it doesn’t, because Breslow has said repeatedly that’s on his off-season to-do list. But we’re blowing this way out of proportion.
There was actually a recent suggestion itt that the Sox trade Abreu, with the goal of better lineup handedness. Abreu put up 3.4 WAR in 447 plate appearances last year, with gold glove defense, and is on a really cheap contract. Maybe the Sox will trade him to improve the team in some meaningful way…but it probably won’t be merely because he doesn’t hit lefties well. What the team will do to account for that deficiency is sit him and play a lefty thumper like Refsnyder, or Gonzalez, when the Sox are facing lefties. That is also how just about every MLB team deals with handedness challenges, including and especially in later innings while facing the bullpen.
In a vacuum, the Sox would prefer players who can hit lefties and righties equally well. But major league games are not played in a vacuum. Teams would love to run out only starters capable of regularly going six innings, good hitters who also play sparkling defense, and speedsters who also get on base at a high percentage. The reality, though, is that most players are good at some things and not at others. The goal is to field an overall roster that balances the various pluses and minuses of all 26 players.
I recognize that those calling for additional right handed hitters are asking for that very thing—balance. But it’s clear that the Sox have found other, and more meaningful, ways to balance the lineup. And the proof is in the pudding: The Sox scored plenty of runs last year regardless of their overall handedness, and it‘s reasonable to expect them to score even more this year.
Yes, hitters with no righty-lefty split are valuable. And yes, the Sox appear to be quite interested in adding a bat who can mash lefty pitching. But I think we have become way too fixated on this issue and are overblowing its significance to the team’s fortunes this season.
I think if they're healthy, Grissom and Story are a great bet to mash LHP, and Campbell too. Grissom and Story both have pronounced splits against LHP.The goal of an offense is not to come as close as possible to righty/lefty parity, nor to have no righty-lefty splits. The goal is to score runs. The Sox last year were third in the American League in runs scored, and that’s despite running out some truly woeful hitters who’d been pressed into extended duty because of injuries.
The offense seems poised to be even better this year, thanks to a (hopefully) healthy Story, Casas, and Grissom, and whatever the Sox are able to get from Anthony and Campbell. Does that mean the team wouldn’t like to add an additional righty bat? Clearly it doesn’t, because Breslow has said repeatedly that’s on his off-season to-do list. But we’re blowing this way out of proportion.
There was actually a recent suggestion itt that the Sox trade Abreu, with the goal of better lineup handedness. Abreu put up 3.4 WAR in 447 plate appearances last year, with gold glove defense, and is on a really cheap contract. Maybe the Sox will trade him to improve the team in some meaningful way…but it probably won’t be merely because he doesn’t hit lefties well. What the team will do to account for that deficiency is sit him and play a lefty thumper like Refsnyder, or Gonzalez, when the Sox are facing lefties. That is also how just about every MLB team deals with handedness challenges, including and especially in later innings while facing the bullpen.
In a vacuum, the Sox would prefer players who can hit lefties and righties equally well. But major league games are not played in a vacuum. Teams would love to run out only starters capable of regularly going six innings, good hitters who also play sparkling defense, and speedsters who also get on base at a high percentage. The reality, though, is that most players are good at some things and not at others. The goal is to field an overall roster that balances the various pluses and minuses of all 26 players.
I recognize that those calling for additional right handed hitters are asking for that very thing—balance. But it’s clear that the Sox have found other, and more meaningful, ways to balance the lineup. And the proof is in the pudding: The Sox scored plenty of runs last year regardless of their overall handedness, and it‘s reasonable to expect them to score even more this year.
Yes, hitters with no righty-lefty split are valuable. And yes, the Sox appear to be quite interested in adding a bat who can mash lefty pitching. But I think we have become way too fixated on this issue and are overblowing its significance to the team’s fortunes this season.
Thank you.The goal of an offense is not to come as close as possible to righty/lefty parity, nor to have no righty-lefty splits. The goal is to score runs. The Sox last year were third in the American League in runs scored, and that’s despite running out some truly woeful hitters who’d been pressed into extended duty because of injuries.
The offense seems poised to be even better this year, thanks to a (hopefully) healthy Story, Casas, and Grissom, and whatever the Sox are able to get from Anthony and Campbell. Does that mean the team wouldn’t like to add an additional righty bat? Clearly it doesn’t, because Breslow has said repeatedly that’s on his off-season to-do list. But we’re blowing this way out of proportion.
There was actually a recent suggestion itt that the Sox trade Abreu, with the goal of better lineup handedness. Abreu put up 3.4 WAR in 447 plate appearances last year, with gold glove defense, and is on a really cheap contract. Maybe the Sox will trade him to improve the team in some meaningful way…but it probably won’t be merely because he doesn’t hit lefties well. What the team will do to account for that deficiency is sit him and play a lefty thumper like Refsnyder, or Gonzalez, when the Sox are facing lefties. That is also how just about every MLB team deals with handedness challenges, including and especially in later innings while facing the bullpen.
In a vacuum, the Sox would prefer players who can hit lefties and righties equally well. But major league games are not played in a vacuum. Teams would love to run out only starters capable of regularly going six innings, good hitters who also play sparkling defense, and speedsters who also get on base at a high percentage. The reality, though, is that most players are good at some things and not at others. The goal is to field an overall roster that balances the various pluses and minuses of all 26 players.
I recognize that those calling for additional right handed hitters are asking for that very thing—balance. But it’s clear that the Sox have found other, and more meaningful, ways to balance the lineup. And the proof is in the pudding: The Sox scored plenty of runs last year regardless of their overall handedness, and it‘s reasonable to expect them to score even more this year.
Yes, hitters with no righty-lefty split are valuable. And yes, the Sox appear to be quite interested in adding a bat who can mash lefty pitching. But I think we have become way too fixated on this issue and are overblowing its significance to the team’s fortunes this season.
I believe this has been the case for the past couple of seasons, but injuries aside I think there is something else at play here. I don't know how to quantify this, but for the past 2-3 seasons this team's offense seemed very Jekyll and Hyde. It's inevitable that every team will have it's offensive peaks and valleys during the season, but to my eye the Red Sox offense has collectively disappeared for long stretches at multiple times over the past couple of seasons. It's going to be a huge plus to the team if they can find a way to remain near the top of the league in runs scored while being more consistent with the offensive output.The goal of an offense is not to come as close as possible to righty/lefty parity, nor to have no righty-lefty splits. The goal is to score runs. The Sox last year were third in the American League in runs scored, and that’s despite running out some truly woeful hitters who’d been pressed into extended duty because of injuries.
I hadn’t noticed this myself so I thought I’d try to see if I could find team runs scored per month over the past couple of years. I didn’t have much luck, unfortunately. Statsmuse appears to have something like this but it requires a subscription.I believe this has been the case for the past couple of seasons, but injuries aside I think there is something else at play here. I don't know how to quantify this, but for the past 2-3 seasons this team's offense seemed very Jekyll and Hyde. It's inevitable that every team will have it's offensive peaks and valleys during the season, but to my eye the Red Sox offense has collectively disappeared for long stretches at multiple times over the past couple of seasons. It's going to be a huge plus to the team if they can find a way to remain near the top of the league in runs scored while being more consistent with the offensive output.
You can go year by year on Baseball Reference. Look under Win/Loss splits.I hadn’t noticed this myself so I thought I’d try to see if I could find team runs scored per month over the past couple of years. I didn’t have much luck, unfortunately. Statsmuse appears to have something like this but it requires a subscription.
https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/mlb-team-runs-per-game-sorted-by-month
Anyone have other ideas for how to get this info?